“Recalibrating” BS – BoJ Looms – Beyond Election Fog

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As our snap analysis indicated Wednesday, we believe one or both of the following conditions are true.

  • The Fed has whored out responsible monetary policy to Politics. OR
  • The Fed sees something very bad ahead – so far unmentionable.

Let’s back up.  We’ll use Consumer Price Index Archived News Releases : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov).  Inflation – all items less food and energy – which the Fed itself claims guides rate decisions – have been as follows:

  • August: (most recent) 3.2 percent
  • July 3.2 percent
  • June 3.3 percent
  • May 3.4 percent

It doesn’t take a dime store MBA to see that inflation reduction has stalled out.  But if you need coincident indicators, let’s talk housing prices. In the most recent (June, there’s lag in data) the Case-Shiller/S&P housing report, we read:

“The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.4% annual gain for June, down from a 5.9% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 7.4%, down from a 7.8% annual increase in the previous month. “

Grandpa Powell’s blather about a 2 percent inflation rate is pure political poppycock, as we figure.

Even worse, the NY Fed’s regional Business Leader’s Survey that was posted Tuesday said:

“Business activity held steady in the New York-Northern New Jersey
region’s service sector in September, and employment growth slowed. While firms were somewhat more positive about the outlook than last month, optimism remained subdued.”

Look, I’ve been Fed Watching now since 1970 – and in a “normal course of things” the Fed might have done a quarter point.  Yes, there is business whining about sales. (When isn’t there?).  Yes, there’s a strike on at Boeing, and maybe one coming to the Port of Houston.  Strikes come and go.

Has there been an uptick in the number of unemployed?  Well, yeah, sort of.

If we look at the BLS database, we see some history to establish context:

And when we look at today’s hot-off-the-PDF picture, the claims weren’t too bad – and as you could see above, the rate came down in the most recent reporting month.

We are drawn to a conclusion we don’t like to voice:  Fascism, the tie-up between a captive government and an interlocked corporate ruling class 0- seems to have swamped the Fed.  With the exception of Governor Michelle Bowman. Bowman Dissent Over Cut Is First From a Fed Governor Since 2005. We applaud her being able to follow the numbers.

Pump & Dump Thursday?

Disclosure: Yes, I play markets a bit.  My positions were up a bit at the close Wednesday,  Overnight?  I got hammered:

Only money, right? Besides, with commodity holdings (metals) there’s 1,579.50 in offsetting gains for the day.  Which is why we don’t do all the eggs in one basket.

When we look at our Aggregate Index, you can see how there’s a huge-press to blow past resistance – but remember, the Bank of Japan meetings are going on today and bad news there could be shocking to markets.  See, it’s expected the BoJ will hold, but if they do raise, then maybe the Fed dropping a half would make sense.  Otherwise, this is a problem.

As you cqan see, there is a little gray box upper right.  In Elliott terms, the market today is ready to challenge our old Aggregate High – which was set back on July 16th at 48,605.37.  In the pre-open today, we’re sitting at 48,367.37…so we’re getting close. Really close.

I tend to ignore the intraday results because there is so much computer-to-computer warfare going on during the sessions.  But the closes do matter.  If we close today at a new high, then my own trading rules will dictate I book the loss and roll to a different instrument (to avoid a wash sale being disallowed down the road a bit).

BUT, I would not be surprised by a new high in here.  You see, the high in 1929 was on September 3rd and the Crash come along at the end of October.  About 55-days.

From the July 16th Aggregate high, we should have Crashed (on a 55-day basis) on September 9th.  Came close: Going into the Friday before that Monday, we dropped more than 800 points in the Aggregate – a short play worked great.

Now, though, if the Aggregate closes above the Labor Day weekend level (267 points on the Aggregate higher from Wednesday’s close, so still a possibility) then we could still have a crash out in the 55-day range from Labor Day – which puts us around October 27th – which would be one hell of a Rhyme on ’29.  OR, if today turns into a new all-time high then we wouldn’t crash until November 13th. In theory.  Not advice.

A Conflicted future, Indeed!

If Ure’s logic on this seems a bit convoluted, it’s not, really.

You see, this is how Markets Tell the Future.  As Dollar Gains in ‘Crucial Window’ Before BOE, BOJ Rate Decisions, we see a scant hope that the Fed has access to a Looking Glass Platform and knows how to use it to model a desired future.

For the rest of us (computationally limited) people, we have only the markets before us, and the 55-day marker from the Great Depression as a kind of yardstick.

IF the Aggregate doesn’t beat the Labor Day close today, an October 27th crash date wheels into view and that (in my thinking) would hugely increase the odds of China taking Taiwan literally within hours of BRICS in Moscow wrapping up.

If, on the other hand, we get a few days of higher highs now than July, then we don’t hit the Wall until November 13th.

Out there, we have three Life Disrupters waiting for us.

Final point, and this really points more in the direction of a November 13th crash date, as the growing odds of violent opposition to election results in the U.S. elections in November.  Liberals in Boston are already giving voice to election fears in Readers are concerned about political violence. Here’s why. (boston.com) and in Ohio National lawyer group emphasizes election security, denounces violence | WVXU.

How are your dart tossing skills?

Lunacy Landings

Ready for a little screech and preach?

Going for the Deep Pockets: COVID Propaganda Roundup: Kansas AG Sues Pfizer For Rigging Clinical Trials (substack.com)

Could golf be a health risk to the Famous? The Leftist Institutional Machine behind the Trump Assassination Attempts – Dr. Rich Swier (drrichswier.com)

Ready to pay more taxes next year?  Insurrection Barbie on X: “Steve Forbes tells you the truth about the awful economic policies of Kamala Harris. https://t.co/J88tnjgZ6k” / X. Fair bit of interesting content on the Insurrection Barbie X site.  Didn’t Harris vote to make tips taxable

Price of Endorsing Trump?  Ask Elon about this: Elon Musk threatens to sue after the FAA proposes launch penalties (chron.com).Penalties that are suspiciously coincident to Musk’s activism in unregulated (for now) life…

We don’t foresee Kentucky’s governor being re-elected after Dem Governor Unilaterally Makes It Illegal To Talk Kids Out Of Sex Changes.

“Mark of the Beast” is coming ‘We Should Absolutely Be Worried’: Google Testing New Digital ID for Google Wallet.”

National what day?  Best National Cheeseburger Day Deals 2024 (today.com)

Around the Ranch: Travel – Ever Again?

As retired couples will, from time to time, Elaine and I sit around with some Italian Vitamin Juice in the afternoon in the 180 (degree view) Room and ponder things ahead in Life.

Word that US launches online passport renewal service got us on the topic of travel.  The big problem is where to go, anymore.  Never been to Europe, but under the current social structure there, not interested.  South Pacific is a damn-long jet ride to what? Go swimming?  We could join the local Y and do that if it were important or put in our own pool. r just shower and step outside to dry off…  But that’d be just another thing to take care of.  So, pass…

The Antarctic would be interesting, but we don’t have political suck points to get a landing pass so that’s off.  Diving Lake Vostok would be interesting.

China? Maybe.  But we’re pretty sure that could land us on a “list” somewhere.  India?  Got no interest.  Tibet?  Well, yeah, that would be interesting, maybe. I have peanut allergies so Traveling in Nepal with nut allergies : r/Nepal (reddit.com) was useful.  Again, save the miles.

Been to Peru’s ruins already, Canada? Check. Hawaii?  Uh huh.

Eventually, if the age reversal diets work out, we have thought about buying another sailboat.  Live in Corpus in the winters and head for lobster land over summers and do the fright seeing along the East Coast on the Intercoastal – that might be interesting.

Or, get a couple of canoes and come down the Mississippi…something like that.

For now, until we get through to next spring and can size up the future a little better, maybe the best place to stay is wherever you are right now.

Write when it all makes sense,

George@Ure.net

60 thoughts on ““Recalibrating” BS – BoJ Looms – Beyond Election Fog”

  1. I’m homebody type, so traveling far isn’t an ideal vacation for me. My husband still would want to go swim with dolphins in Australian reefs despite wheelchair bound. But not me. Get me lost in a mountaintop cabin away from people any day. I’d probably never leave if I did. I will say that people I have known, who have spare money to play with, seem to love Thailand.

    • Yes, vacations are personal taste.

      Basically it’s surf ‘n turf with about 1% going to air in form of Vomit Comet clones. No space, yet. Even in the future we might go to Mars for artifact digging but that’s just different turf.

      What about those Diddy Freak-offs, eh? Those sometimes lasted a week. That’s a vacation.

    • Have you seen the movie “Taken” ? It is based on a true story.., but it is not set in Europe.
      Taken was written from the experience of a Special Force’s officer., who resigned from the military to go find his daughter and her best friend who disappeared while in Thailand. They were both ‘Taken” by sex traffickers. He did eventually find his daughter – naked and dead in drainage ditch.., with more drugs in her system then an LA addict – never did find her best friend.
      – To this day, certain parts of Thailand can be very dangerous – especially for American and British tourists. The arrogant, privileged and naive – who don’t understand why the waitress doesn’t speak English are great ‘targets’..,
      Thailand would not be on my list.

      • There’s a lot of depravity far and wide…

        Jailed hip-hop mogul Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs’ alleged “freak off” parties stunned one drug dealer after he saw household-name celebrities having sex with each other.

        The dealer said Diddy opened the door to his former Hamptons mansion in nothing but a robe and brought him through to a back bedroom to make the cocaine deal.

        “Weird sh–t was starting to happen.
        Celebrity guys f—ing each other. There were back bedrooms and it was like the inner sanctum.

        https://nypost.com/2024/09/19/us-news/sean-diddy-combs-hamptons-sex-parties-with-gay-rappers/

        • Wild celebrity parties and the casting couch has always been..just like the depravity and corruption of Ukraine and the alleged corrupt business practices of the brand.. they even brag about it in the memoirs and book.. Under the table deals in DC.. I met one girl that was raped by someone in congress way back.. and when she threatened to call the police.. he said what do you think they will do.. for decades.. there was newspaper accounts of a satanic pedo ring and a organ harvesting ring in the NE.. then when it came out that such a ring existed and who was involved in the thing.. the investigative reports and newspaper articles all vanished.. even with thousands of photos posted by the very same people alleged to be in it.. they were cleaned up and it was deemed fake news.. one old politician had over three thousand emails that were just deleted.. the home family sex movies gone or under cover and shared on the dark web..
          It totally depends on what part of society.. the bad thing is the under the table deals and the hidden from view activities.. are now right in front of you.. what you going to do about it.. so far it has been appearing that every agency sworn to protect the people are involved and doing just the opposite..they opened the borders to anyone even though there have been threats that was exactly what they would do for almost a hundred years.. Was this how Sodom and Gomorrah was

        • Not to mention how many people that committed suicide and were mugged where nothing was taken.. the last one what shot himself in the head with two shotguns then hid the shot guns and hung himself.. called suicide.. and no one questions it.. not one person stayed in DC to work on the mount everest of issues.. they all went home for the summer.. came back and are now gone again.. so which side is really interested in doing anything at all.. NONE of them are.. it is just political alignment for the election.. a dead horse issue that will never be cleaned up.. once your in the club you can pretty much do what you want.. wasn’t there the nephew of a congressman that beat a woman to death with a golf club once upon a time.. same thing.. depending on who you are.. depends on what you can get away with..

  3. “items less food and energy ”

    We don’t want the result of inflation, higher prices but do want free like American Rescue Plans and bailout to uncompetitive Boeing so they can compete.

    I believe in the condition identified as doublethink.

    doublethink –
    noun
    noun: doublethink; noun: double-think

    the acceptance of or mental capacity to accept contrary opinions or beliefs at the same time, especially as a result of political indoctrination.

    DT is everywhere and within each of us.

    “Fascism”

    It’s my thought Fascism became known when the PBGC was created under Ford. The corporations weren’t funding pension funds and told .gov to make the funds whole. And .gov did. Who wouldn’t go along?

    O/T I like to see the charts as they are in today’s report as opposed to Saturday’s report. The comment, can’t you find the “open in new window” tick box? :)

    • Why should we the people that are forced to pay for a company that is to big to fail.. then watch as they give out multi million dollar bonuses to executives that did a shitty job..

  4. “Write when it all makes sense,”

    ergo, I shonld not be writing;
    The FED is relatively unimportant versus the importance of the Federal Budget!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • BINGO!

      I read Machiavelli’s “The Prince” in high school. This is the part that has stuck with me ever since: A quote from that book: “So a prince has of necessity to be so prudent that he knows how to escape the evil reputation attached to those vices which could lose him his state, and how to avoid those vices which are not so dangerous, if he possibly can; but, if he cannot, he need not worry so much about the latter. And then, he must not flinch from being blamed for vices which are necessary for safeguarding the state. This is because, taking everything into account, he will find that some of the things that appear to be virtues will, if he practises them, ruin him, and some of the things that appear to be vices will bring him security and prosperity.

      XVI Generosity and parsimony

      So, starting with the first of the qualities I enumerated above, I say it would be splendid if one had a reputation for generosity; none the less if you do in fact earn a reputation for generosity you will come to grief. This is because if your generosity is good and sincere it may pass unnoticed and it will not save you from being reproached for its opposite. If you want to sustain a reputation for generosity, therefore, you have to be ostentatiously lavish; and a prince acting in that fashion will soon squander all his resources, only to be forced in the end, if he wants to maintain his reputation, to lay excessive burdens on the people, to impose extortionate taxes, and to do everything else he can to raise money. This will start to make his subjects hate him, and, since he will have impoverished himself, he will be generally despised. As a result, because of this generosity of his, having injured many and rewarded few, he will be vulnerable to the first minor setback, and the first real danger he encounters will bring him to grief. When he realizes this and tries to retrace his path he will immediately be reputed a miser.

      So because a prince cannot practise the virtue of generosity in such a way that he is noted for it, except to his cost, ”

      Substitute the American Government for the Prince.

      Forgive the pilot terminology, but current government spending has us on the back side of the power curve and we are heading for the coffin corner.

      How did we get here? We have a representative republic and our representatives are the best that can be bought. Campaign donations are just a legal form of bribery.

      WAF

      • (“I say it would be splendid if one had a reputation for generosity; none the less if you do in fact earn a reputation for generosity you will come to grief. “)

        Exactly OBB…. look at the Romanov… or Marie anntoinette.. adolf hitler, etc.. in each civilization that was about to fail or failed.. the leaders and politicians had a chance to help the people.. every civilization that did.. made it through the hard times.. the ones that thought oh hell let them eat cake if they don’t like it.. well we know what happened to all of them..
        consider the open borders.. to countries that swore vengence.. it wasn’t a secret.. but they don’t give two cents over those threats none of them even cracked open the pages of the studies being done on the threat analysis.. up to a million possible enemy soldiers in the borders of the USA.. what was it they always said.. you can’t fix stupid…. they are beyond that.. even though they know from what happens to politicians and their families in the countries where we put in our own puppet leaders.. I have the diary of a farmer that when the Czar asked for help from the USA we sent over farmers to teach the russians our new ways of crop production.. anyway he escaped as the Bolshevik army took over the country . he took pictures to.. at one point the nanny at the palace asked them to take the youngest daughter with them.. for years I thought Anastasia made it.. after they found the graves.. and dna testing was done.. it was pretty obvious the nanny probably saved her daughter not the kings..
        in every failed civilization .. the leaders could have avoided the fate of their country.. in each instance they failed to see the need and let it proceed the failed civilizations all figured oh well its just the people not us….
        NO ONE stayed in DC even though the people have been crying out please can you do somthing..at least they could have pretended to give two cents over what is going on.. instead BLM and Antifa did so much damage.. and nothing really.. we see corruption showing up in every facet of government and none of them cares enough

    • Unfortunately the business model of politics was set up to tell the people what they want to hear, and NOT what they need to hear. That settles that issue.
      While we diddled around discussing useless (IMHO) FED policy our leaders spend our money like drunken sailors w/o considering its consequences — we didn’t hear pieps about that anywhere. Yes, there may have been a piep somewhere that escaped my attention, but since Tricky Dick took the dollar off convertibility into gold, all bets are off — and so will end the US of ….. you fill in the remainder because mine are unsuitable. End of rant, because Life is good !

  5. I haven’t posted in a while, but George, when you say that the price of housing is tied into inflation, I have to speak. Housing is an asset class investment. Historically, especially in large markets, houses and other form of real estate are supposed to appreciate. As an analogy, if I buy Meta Stock at $100 and it rises to $547 (today’s price) is that an inflationary item? It now costs consumers over 5 times to purchase that stock than it did when it was only $100. You know the answer is no.

    Likewise, I have hundreds of clients that bought a property for around a million 6-8 years ago that are now worth well into the $2millions. They aren’t complaining one bit. To make it even better, the state of California basically freezes your base property tax bill at the purchase price, (Prop. 13) so no matter how high the homes value rises, the property tax as well as the Principal, interest, and insurance costs remains the same, while the value of that property goes up.

    Add interest deductions, principal buydown and other benefits of home ownership and it’s a win – win.

    • Great to have you back, Mark.
      Great comments, too. While it’s true that factors other than money costs impact housing prices, such as the rising materials and labor prices (and local assessments) we have always held that the #1 asset for anyone is the home they live in on the simple logic of “Why pay a landlord when you could pay yourself?””

      My pointing at the Case Shiller numbers was merely to illustrate that most sectors of the economy are nowhere near the mythical Fed 2 percent dream. Bowman’s got it right. One out of how many?

      And still, in the latest report, Shelter was up 5.2 yoy – the younger you lock shelter costs, the more inflation-resistant you become.

      (BTW You were one of the drivers behind the migration of Peoplenomics out of raw hand-coded to HTML nd migrating to PDFs for charts and WordPress as the core content manager – which will be happening in the next mnonth or two – so thanks for that, too.)

    • In my state and many others there is NO locking in of Real Estate Taxes based upon the purchase price with only limited increase in taxes thereafter.

      Here the Real Estate Taxes are based upon the CURRENT Fair Market Value and ALL properties are revalued every 3 years. Currently in MY urban area the effective Real Property Taxes for most school district areas are about 3.1% of the REAL FMV per year … next major city over they run about 5%+ of the REAL FMV per year.

      People here who bought a typical suburban home in the 1980’s for about $60,000 are now looking at a value of about $600,000 (many areas now $700,000+) with a yearly real estate tax bill of about $18,000/year. Next city over that yearly real estate tax bill would be about $30,000/year. Many of those people are now reaching, or are at, retirement age and even if you have a decent retirement that is a HUGE black hole in your retirement income budget (NO silicon stock option money made around here … just regular wage money).

      Add in the fact that the tax deduction for Federal Taxes is now limited to $10k per year, and the people are also paying state and city income taxes, the dynamics start working strongly AGAINST middle class people continuing to own the house they raised their kids in as they get older. The yearly taxes are just too high.

      Every state is different … but California is a special case when it comes to residential real estate compared to the rest of the country with it’s limits on real estate taxes. (California also has quirks in it’s laws which lets most home buyers off the hook for “Deficiency Judgements” when it comes to defaulted real estate loans … no such deal here, the lender here will chase you till the cows come home for any deficiency if you default on your home loan)

      Here if the value of your home went up from 1 to 2 million your real estate taxes would go up at least $30,000/year PLUS most of those home are in a Homeowner’s Association area, which also charge by you FMV, usually about 2% per year, so your Homeowners Association dues would go up another $20,000/year. ($50,000 per year increase in your taxes and fees … or a total of $100,000+ per year for a $2 million dollar house)

      • Productive agricultural land is a good investment in Texas, with low property tax. Big homes on oversized lots are not such a good investment, due to property taxes and insurance costs. Having a very small home on a family farm works.

        • Yes.. I have tried to talk the wife into moving. what we pay a month is the yearly tax there..

      • (SMILE) “Senior Homeowners Exemption” I pay $200/yr. tax. Good up to around $300k valuation, with minor increases above that. Hawaii takes care of it’s elders.

  6. (“Grandpa Powell’s blather about a 2 percent inflation rate is pure political poppycock, as we figure.”)

    I want to know just what the boy is drinking or smoking I want some of that.. LOL.. talked to a friend that is having to move out of his home because the cost of the house and taxes is more than they get …
    the low income housing residents don’t make enough to pay low income rent.. so people are moving out.. yet we are buying new homes for illegals and giving them perks like free medical and dental and more resources than those that worked their whole lives and paid in.. a person has to pay in forty quarters before they are eligible to get .. the money I think is going to fall.. once the Brics comes out with their new way to buy their products.. ( if we aren’t in ww3 before then ) and the fiat currencies are totally worthless.. the fiat currencies need to keep the money unsecured to continue to work the way it does.. it will be interesting .. OH G I love the way you put the charts in Peoplenomics..

  7. Alien disclosure is due in Mid October for Project Blue Book data.

    The only place I want to see is Easter Island but it looks like quite a hassle to get there. It would be interesting to go through the Panama Canal on a cruise, but not in June or July when other family members are available and a 16 day cruise is about 10 days too long.

    • Farsight.org just did their latest project on Easter Island..very interesting and entertaining. Think they have 4 different Viewers share-review their perceptions on the Heads, the quarry/quarrying and leader of the folks who built them, and what the place was utilized for after the heads were completed.

    • My interest is the water gardens of China the great pyramids..
      I would like to see Stonehenge to.. Manchu picchu would be awesome to see.. and the Noah’s ark monument in turkey..along with the cliff dwellings at 4 corners..
      the temples and glorious structures of Russia.. and the Balkans.. oh check all of the cool places would be nice..

    • HI.. well I am back home.. got that ancient recipe for you Eleanor.. enjoy it..
      Now today the grain that you got when you drank it.. is how they still drink it today.. but for the sake of modern technology and new ways.. I would let it settle.. by using bentonite clay.. let the sediment settle.. then switch it to a new carboy second fermentation tank.. when you back sweeten it.. red grape juice or pomegranite juice was customary for them to mix that with it for the women..
      in some civilizations they still do today the tribe .. where there would be several straws one for each member and they would drink out of the same crock.. an aquaintance of mine that was in the television show Naked and afraid.. said that when they were hunting with the tribes.. the hunter took first bite.. then everyone in order of their position in the tribe took a bite.. the beer drinking was the same way then as it still is being practiced today.
      I haven’t made this.. to get the fizz out of it.. just like wine.. after you mix in the bentonite clay to mix with the sediment.. you mix it briskly for about five minutes.. this degasses the drink.. then let it settle.. at the same time you take your beer and heat it up till it is just warm or slightly hot to the touch.. this was the ancient way of stopping the fermentation.. in real ancient days they would allow it to continue fermentation today.. here are the methods to stop fermentation..
      1) Cold-crashing. The term cold-crashing is just a winemaker’s term for cooling a brew down, usually by manner of a fridge. …
      Racking. …
      Heating the brew. …
      Adding preservatives such as metabisulfites and sorbates camden tablets one half tsp per gallon. Now if your using grapes for the juice.. then you might want to consider heating it because the natural yeast in the grapes will continue to resurface and ferment.. ( I learned that one the hard way )I have a grape wine that tastes wonderful.. but dam I don’t know how strong it is.. I had six ounces and was spinning.. ( I am not a drinker so it doesn’t take much.. but dam)
      Ancient Bousa
      5 cups of sprouted wheat berries..
      (once they are sprouted.. roast them for three hours in a three hundred degree oven.. they used a wood fired oven thousands of years ago that gave it a smokey taste.. ) let cool.. the wheat should have a nutty smell and dark brown.. the darker the roasted wheat the darker the drink..
      Once cooled grind it up into a coarse flour. They used coarse grind.. modern days and new kitchen equipment you can pulse it a few times to get the same results..
      10 cups of barley and ten cups of water.. Simmered until it makes a meal texture..like oatmeal…
      ( Today I would add two pounds of honey to the initial mix..or two pounds of sugar.. back then they only used the grain)
      When the barley is still warm to the touch put it in the pot with the ground up wheat in your fermentor and fill it to the five gallon level.. place your fermentation lock on it.. five and ten thousand years ago.. they would seal this up in an earthen jar with wax coating the inside of it..
      Add a quarter cup or two tbsp of yeast
      Let it ferment for about two weeks..
      When you uncover your beer, the first thing you’ll notice is that it smells like it’s gone bad. This, of course, is because it has. The smell will dissipate completely if you take off the lid and let it air out for a while. It’s safe to drink, siphon off the beer into another carboy leaving the yeast and grain cake in the bottom of the first fermentation tank. Very lightly sour and fizzy at this point in ancient days.. the grain cake would be consumed with the beer, with a little bit of smokiness from the roasted grain at this point.. for royalty they would back sweeten it with honey or date syrup, or mixing it with pomegranate juice. In Mesopotamia they would use grapes.. not only for the natural yeast but to back sweeten it with the grape juice.. if you wish to have the thick natural way like the ancients then leave the grain in the drink it will be cloudy and thick like oatmeal

  8. Young people don’t visit the Urban Survival site because they are incapable of comprehending the requirements of their survival. Their world is a world of entertainment.

    “Grandparents report that their grandchildren instead of acquiring skills wasted their period of cognitive development playing video games and scrolling cell phones. Consequently, they are incapable of working or comprehending the requirements for their survival. Their world is a world of entertainment.”

    https://www.theburningplatform.com/2024/09/19/the-digital-revolution-is-the-prime-enabler-of-tyranny/

    • You know.. A friend of the family just asked me about how to start.. I gave the one can method..but seriously.. I believe its to late to get it done..
      what 4 weeks the Bric’s comes out with the new purchasing plan..want something you have to have a backed currency..
      the fiat currencies if they do it as they have been suggesting they plan to do it.. the dollar pound and euro etc. will be scrambling to regain control.
      https://www.cadtm.org/Are-the-BRICS-and-their-New-Development-Bank-offering-alternatives-to-the-World

    • re: ‘wasted their period of cognitive development’

      At one point I worked as a tech in an elementary school and became friends with the ‘advanced project’ teacher for 5th graders. Her most telling remark was that her students could not use scissors with any level of skill. Her thought was they had missed their window for dexterity development because their entire life all they did was either click with a mouse or make selections via touch-screen.

      Good luck to us All…

      • Never touched a computer until I was half way through college, and that was an IBM mainframe. Never picked up the game habit. My first PC was a Commodore 64. That sucker could print resumes. Still got two of ’em in the attic somewheres.
        IBM clones get defanged and tossed when they reach end of useful life. I did a complete change-out on hardware a few years back to get rid of hardware with IT back doors.
        I am waiting for the new low-power Intel processors with the “T” suffix to become available in modest computers before I buy hardware again. With an Nvidia graphics card, now that would be a bucket list item.

        • Still got my original VIC 20 in the closet with 128K RAM and tape drive. I used to write programs for it in Commodore Basic and used it for my students to take tests.

  9. For the last several decades, I’ve only voted at two physical polling places, one in my home Connecticut town of over forty years, and here in central North Carolina. Both places are smallish towns.

    Both had fold-out cardboard table-top booths, and one machine resembling a Xerox machine at the end of the row — “tended” by a guy who was careful to tell everyone to be sure to stick your ballots in, oriented a certain way, because the “scanner” was an optical device. There was no indication that anything had happened, other than the ballot being sucked in, once started.

    I objected to this the first couple of times — “You can SEE my ballot!” (It had to go in face up.) They didn’t care, and there was no other reasonable means to object. The attitude was, that it was MY Special Problem –nobody else had any objections — this is Just How We Do This Now. (Move along, please… Don’t make trouble…)

    I have no confidence I have ever cast a true ballot in maybe fifty years. (Since back before, when we had curtains and a big lever, and the machines had little candidate levers, and actual mechanical tally registers on the backs of the machines, totalizing the counts.)

    Some polling olaces were located at big factories, and it would not surprise me to think the “watcher” could have been a union shop steward…

    Call me paranoid…

  10. For close to twenty years I traveled all over the world. Just about every major city you can name., I’ve been there. But I have a very different view of those cities then the average tourist who does the air conditioned bus sightseeing-tours. I know those cities from the dirty back street and dark allies. Back when I got out of the service I toured most of Europe on a Norton 650 Commando motorcycle. [British motorcycles love to leak oil.] No desire to go back – especially in today’s political climate. Been there and done that. In and out of Japan so many times I actually learned the language to get what I needed done. Though sitting outside of a mom-&-pop cafe on an un-tourist Greek Isle, sipping espresso and reading the latest mystery thriller does have it’s draw.
    I have no desire to revisit any of them. ., and I refuse to fly anymore. Travel is completely off of my list. Except for one possibility.
    – A really nice live-aboard sailboat. Destination? .., unknown.

  12. How Gold Prices (in different currencies) reacted after Powell’s announcement yesterday
    threw me off. WTF?
    –
    Easier credit in the world reserve currency and the price of Gold falls worldwide.
    —
    Unless there’s some angle I’m missing,seems like another Gold assassination attempt.
    –
    Think of the “juice” necessary to cause a sharp worldwide decline in nearly all currencies on the Spot market.
    Not futures (Comex was closed).

    –
    Kinda like the “juice” necessary to get 175+ countries adopting the same lockdown policies
    simultaneous (in lockstep). Acting in near unison when they never do about anything else.
    —
    —
    George, you must of forgotten how much maintenance boats require. Even if I could afford it, I don’t have the energy to keep up a land and sea residence. I chose boat decades ago and it’s worked for me.
    —
    However, if the shots really do clear out 80% of the population, well that’s a game changer for you. Boat values would likey decline due to lack of buyers with cash. The whole boating industry would crash just like all others.
    —
    Anchorges around the world might see much fewer boats. The ramifications are wide.
    Of course, a world of near empty anchorages and “$600 silver”, well … that might be a world where one has to hustle to stay alive.

    Sailor

  13. Please retain The Dot if possible.
    I have liked The Dot for a LONG time…

    Been following the EGGs for years…

  14. How high can you fly my fine feathered friend ?

    No not you Daffy, no we be talking bbbbBITCOIN, bitches!

    The only bitcoin news that is fit to print – I know why post it Here if is the only bitcoin news fit to print ? Point taken, thx.

    * https://r.mailing.trezor.io/mk/mr/sh/1t6AnZaFKPMfScrM1pE0t6TK3LcIJI/i3y3JFOwVnnj

    Bitcoin hodlers – Riders on the Storm – https://youtu.be/k9o78-f2mIM?si=VnCYe_LS491kou_j

    or
    Ghost Riders https://youtu.be/-zol906ltPU?si=z-NoSBSpcpYhmDQz

    BTC is up, yet the BCN is feeling a bit deflationary. Perhaps this is why I just cant seem to get enough Yellow Gold and Black Gold. Skyrockets in flight baby, skyrockets in flight!

  15. George
    I’m voting for sailboat AND South Pacific. It’s not about swimming so much, it’s about living a truly slow life, inspired by the local aptitude towards how the day should go. Forget the society islands and go for the tinier places. Drift around and have no particular place to go. Get aa Starlink if you feel the need to be ever so connected, or just bag all of it and get down to one day at a time. We use our T-mobile as a hot spot and can do e-mails and that’s OK. And we can read US since that is most important of all.
    Land is the trap.
    Stiks

  16. Boeing bought McDonnell Douglas for $14 Billion. Then the culture changed. It is said that McDonnell bought Boeing with Boeing’s own money. Engineers no longer run Boeing. Here is a 28 minute video of the real reason the Boeing Starliner failed. The company is in deep Kim-chee.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ejHYVamyiw

    You want to talk insurrection? Poll says: “28% of Democrats Approve of Trump Assassination”. And it gets worse. “If you listen to U.S. Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., the real insurrection will be led by Democrats and it will begin on Jan. 6, 2025 “

    The call to subvert the election is dressed up, of course, in legalistic jargon, but make no mistake what this scumbag is saying: when Trump wins in November, Raskin and his comrades are going to declare the elected president disqualified and the election null and void, who will then all require bodyguards because they’ll have committed treason.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2024-09-19/poll-28-democrats-approve-trump-assassination-51-dont-see-need-increased-security

    And as for vacations, I’ve been on a permanent one here for years. Got nowhere better to go.

  17. Looks to me like ‘The Fed’ is trying very hard to convince the markets that it is NOT behind the curve.., just remember what happens when the ‘The Fed’ reverses course and starts cutting rates.
    * * * Markets never crash from all-time highs.., at least, I haven’t been able to find an instant where they have., and as of this morning’s surge, nearly every index is at an all-time high.., so you do have time to position your trades for the coming downside move. My “Carnac The Magnificent” aggregate is in all time high territory as of this morning.

    * * * The market will sell-off., I bet and positioned a considerable sum believing that. I am counting on a 25 to 35 % down move – sell-off. However – timing is everything right now., as ‘The Fed’ is messing with the math. Too many Chefs and not enough Dishwashers. I am still a little surprised that ‘The Fed’ did 50 point cut., and I still believe it was a “bad move” on their part.

    * * * .., but, ‘The Fed’ has made their move., right, or wrong we, the gamblers, will now have to wait and see how all of this plays out, election-mayhem not withstanding, over the next 90 days – or so.
    *
    “Stay Frosty ! “

  18. (“Going for the Deep Pockets: COVID Propaganda Roundup: Kansas AG Sues Pfizer For Rigging Clinical Trials (substack.com)”)

    A serious question……..I received a phone call last night
    A friend of mines son fifty five had the Covid vaccines and boosters.. strong kid decent shape.. he was watching television with his wife two weeks ago.. stood straight up..fell over dead..the autopsy showed he had a massive heart attack and a lot of clotting similar to what is seen on YouTube about the vaccine..
    So.. the question is have they found a way to dissolve the clotting for those that have had the vaccines.. like take two aspirin a day to thin out the clot?

    • Aspirin, and niacin (real niacin – nicotinic acid, not niacinamide), choline, and vitamin-C (and the vitamin-C should perhaps be both oral and intravenous.)

      Read Linus Pauling on clogged plumbing…

      • Thanks Ray I appreciate that..
        it was a shock to everyone.. and I was wondering what in the hell.. of course the huge clots were not considered to be related to his vaccines..

    • I believe it was Dr. McCullough who said that Nattokinase will dissolve the spike proteins generated by the shots, but I doubt that will apply to the clots. Undertakers report they are dense and ‘rubbery’ material. Not normal blood material clots.

      • Thanks Hank another great suggestion.. those of us that Had to have the doses because of work.. its nice to know there’s a way to fix this potential threat.

  20. And another thing! I don’t think the “Global Consciousness Project Dot (Current)” has much value in terms of predicting events. I’m dropping it off the radar.

  21. George,

    The peak will be above your previous aggregate high and will occur on Wednesday 25 Sept and complete a 5 August to 25 September 6-7/17/16 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x growth fractal series. There should be a gap higher valuation at the opening tomorrow 20 September and on the opening on Tuesday 24 September. Use the DAX or STOXX Europe 50 indices and observe a : 9/2 of 20/18-19 hour valuation blow-off growth fractal. These two indices are following a 5 Aug 7/17/16 day growth fractal series with a characteristic second fractal lower low gap between day 16 and 17 of the 17 day second fractal. For the ACWI Global index, the hourly fractal count is 8/1 of 17/16-17 hours. (the ACWI trades for 8 hours a day and the DAX and STOXX trade for 9 hours a day).

    The fractal replay of 1929 is a proportionality replay. The 1807 first and second fractals were 36 (x)and 90 (2.5x) years in length, respectively, with nadirs in 1842-3 and 1932. The first and second fractals of the 1982 interpolated series are 13 (x) and 32 (2.5x) years in length and ending in 2025. The base first crash fractal containing the 1929 peak was 25 weeks in length : 5/10/12 weeks whereas the base crash fractal for the 2024 peak will be 10 weeks in length: 2/4/4/3 weeks or 7/17/16/10 days :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x.

    10-15 trillion dollars of stock buy-backs over 20 years have inflated equity valuations and shunted money away from US R and D and new product development. The roaring US equity market is a paper tiger.
    In the leading manufacturing country producing real stuff, Chinese Billionaires, in a deflationary economy with growing government intervention and control, are trying to exit China with their capital.

    This global collapse which on a daily basis will be like watching paint dry, will at, a yearly level, be observed as a 13/32 year second fractal nonlinear collapse.

  22. The Fed should have cut interest rates a lot sooner, according to Jeff Gundlach
    The multi-billionaire “Bond King” thinks we have entered into recession already.
    Hiring has slowed steadily over the past year, even as GDP has continued to grow in recent quarters. Layoff announcements climbed 193% over the last month, according to a report from the consultancy Challenger, Gray, & Christmas. Hiring plans for the year have also fallen to their lowest level on record, down 41% in August compared to last year. Boeing is planning on laying-off many-thousands as the strike continues.
    The Federal Reserve is way too late to the game., and is now trying to catch up with oversize cuts that will eventually do more damage, then good. The next couple of GDP reports will verify this.
    .
    I have listened to and followed Gundlach for many years. He didn’t become a multi-billionaire by accident. His ‘thoughts’ are usually very sound.

  23. re: “BS”; news coup
    feat: not Oles Van Herman

    Folks,

    Belgian waffle alert! Everybody, check waders-on and shovel-ready? Here we go.

    Four months ago the founder of a Ukrainian news agency passed away. He apparently used a pseudonym when writing on the Russian language, allegedly Western ngo financed digital platform “Tyzhnia’s Mirror”. By coinkydoink the pseudonym had matched the name of an award winning Soviet scientist with groundbreaking work in mass spectrometry whose current employer was a supplier of product to Pfizer and Moderna. According to Wikipedia, the colossus is sitting down with the long-suffering family of the HeLa immortal cell line. It’s suggested that the firm’s efforts to rescind technical product from Chinese researches into “biometric surveillence” of minority groups were not wholly successful.

    Three days ago the “Ukraine Interfax” news agency reported that a pretrial investigation of a former television personality and Ukrainian former Servant of the People MP imprisoned since last November, Alexander Dubinsky, has been completed. (As an aside, his past ‘rabbi’ oligarch may have appeared in a Venn diagram with a former Mayor of New York.) Here is their link:

    https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/1014189.html

    Today Moscow’s “Tass” quoted the supposedly imprisoned Mr. Dubinsky advising there may be a coup in the Ukraine unless President Zelinsky calls an election. This is the “Tass” link:

    https://tass.com/world/1845193

    DJ George has apparently stepped from the studio and onto the local links for a fun round. Stay out of those bunkers!

    Speaking of golf, in recent days “The Palm Beach Post” (by way of MSN) re-printed a several years old panoramic image view over the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach from the roof of the across-the-road law enforcement facility. I’m not sure if this or its satellite facility in West Palm hosted as an involuntary guest the former proprieter of Little St. James Island in 2008. Anyhow here’s a link to the spectacular view:

    https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1hO0n5.img

    Alright, back to reality.

  24. Well…good news.. the book written by archeologists is going to the printers its done..
    Table of The Gods..
    I can’t wait..one f the questions was do you want PDF version along with it..absolutely a table copy for a conversation piece but a working copy for the ebook reader..
    I am so pumped.. A wonderful experience as a recipe tester..I hope there will be pictures.. of the hieroglyphics and images of finds.. he tried to get all the good stuff..the original recipes and modern conversions with the ingredients that is available today..
    the wife will be upset..I am going to have another hard copy cookbook lol.. right up my alley..

    https://www.tableofgods.com/

  25. Stephen 2; very crucial information you have shared here.

    It goes along with our little WEFERFKR’s friends, who have claimed that we will own nothing and be happy.

    https://www.lifesitenews.com/analysis/klaus-schwab-says-world-is-on-the-cusp-of-a-profound-systemic-transformation/

    A few items from the article (well worth the read):

    In the introduction to the WEF Annual Report 2023-2024, the WEF founder said that we were living in transformative times and that there were a handful of factors driving this systemic transformation:

    We are on the cusp of a profound systemic transformation driven by interconnected shifts in a rapidly changing world

    The five “interconnected shifts” include:

    Transition from the industrial to the intelligent age,
    Conflictual transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world, Need to transition to a green economy,
    Demographic shifts from a young to an ageing world,
    Societal polarization and rise of misinformation.

    ….. further along in the article:

    If you recall the infamous video from 2016 that states “You’ll Own Nothing. And You’ll Be Happy,” you’d also recall that another one of the WEF’s “8 Predictions for the World in 2030,” also states:

    U.S. dominance is over. We have a handful of global powers. Nation states will have staged a comeback….

    The U.S. won’t be the world’s leading superpower. A handful of countries will dominate.

    I’m sure everyone remembers the video from the @wef that predicts that by 2030
    “You will own nothing and be happy.”

    What else did the WEF video predict?

    It also predicts that by 2030
    “The US won’t be the world’s leading superpower – a handful of countries will dominate.”

    So… pic.twitter.com/X7x95S0NNL

    — Michael O’Fallon – Sovereign Nations (@SovMichael) January 26, 2024.

    THEN:

    Combine this WEFERFKRS coordination of 2030 with (Agenda 2030) and also a good article on Chris’s site, AVOW:

    He just gives the tip of the iceberg in his introduction; you have to join the site to read the rest of the article; here is his introduction:

    Dear Friends & Family:

    You’ll recall my previous emails regarding Social Security (SS) facing fiscal viability issues, due to ever-increasing benefit levels and eternal expansions of who is eligible to receive benefits… even if they’ve not paid into the program under the same required timelines as the rest of us commoners.

    The SS Commission itself says they can only pay full benefits through 2034…then partial benefits after that. (What they’re not saying is that the partial benefits will get de facto smaller and smaller over the ensuing years — because we won’t have enough workers supporting enough benefit receivers.)

    The news is starting to break into the mainstream financial outlets, as evidenced by info from my credit union, below.
    Most sources say starting in 2035, benefits will have to decrease by at least 21-to-23% to match the actual payroll taxes coming in. (Some sources say 2034, one even says 2033, but I think that’s due to “journalists” not actually reading the source documents from the IRS.)
    If we have another 2008-9 level financial crisis, or another economy-freezing pandemic, that date could IMO come up to at least 2030, and perhaps as early as 2028. But, that is my personal assessment.

    Thus, I say again: DO NOT DEPEND ON SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS TO FUND YOUR RETIREMENT if you’re under 60.

    In fact, you may not receive ANY SS benefits if the crazy spending continues, causing many Federal programs to break.
    It only works now because the USD is still the world’s reserve currency (WRC), and we get massive benefits as a nation from that; however, it seems clear the WRC status is going to disappear within 10 years…perhaps less.

    We, the taxpayers, are stuck in a game of blind man’s bluff:

    The program is fiscally unsustainable and has been for at least 30 years. We knew this crisis was coming. Heck, I warned my own kids of this problem when they were young…and here it is. (2034 is relatively near, in actuarial terms.)

    https://www.ldsavow.com/

    • Its truly scary what’s happening…
      I am glad I live in the wastelands.. I believe if I lived in the cities I would want to own a gun for safety to. I do have a pepper ball ..don’t want to hurt anyone just give us a chance to escape in a true situation where our safety is at risk..one of these days I need to have someone show me how to use it..

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