Profitectomy: Slip-Sliding Away

by

Been a fine, if not damn near dandy week, here in the East Texas Outback.  The time of year when “green up” happens – as the wild lands look greener than Ireland.

The bank balances are greening-up nicely, as well.  Because we have a useful kluge of a lot of technical gibberish and simple visuals that let us – when someone pays attention – to make 3-4 percent (or more this week) on a weekly basis.

See, we’re fans of what I’d call drive-by investing.  The idea is simple enough.  It’s all based on gambling theory.  Which holds if you go into a casino and just keep gambling long enough, you’re certain to come out broke.

On the other hand, if you go in, see a roulette wheel and make a series of bets on red or black and walk out with your winnings, you actually CAN come out ahead.

My current thinking is it’s very, very boorish to make a lousy 4 or 5 percent a week.  But here’s the thing:  With an emphasis on technique and repeatability, things begin to compound nicely.  At least in theory…

If you start such a plan with a modest sum ($10,000 – a quarter of a new car price) and just compound four percent per week, a year (52-compoundings later) you’d be north of $75,000.

Thing is, though, you will lose, too.  The problem is not whether you can bet, but whether you actually know what you’re doing.  A lot of people don’t.  With the right mindset (and approach) you can look at a market and – in a few seconds – know if you should run for the hills.

Day Trading is about like playing the ponies.  Except instead of the Daily Racing Form, there’s the WSJ.

One of these days (on the subscriber side) I’ll have to collect a lot of these little tidbits into an alt.invest plan, or small book.  But maybe not.  Because whenever a technique begins to work well and it becomes widely copied, its usefulness declines dramatically.

There’s something to this living below your means, debt-free, compounding small bets, and always sending in your taxes.  Reduces stress.  Kind of like a relaxing ride in the car – at or below the speed limit – fewer people will be gunning for you.  Let the Joneses have all the people trying to keep up with them.  The Ures are low profile.  We also ain’t stupid.

Channeling Markets

This is pretty easy – and we share it now and then so people can see where the future might be hiding:

As we tell you about those Elliott counts and the lines that define channels:  They move all the time as new information becomes the present instead of speculation about the future.

We are not to the bottom of either channel extremes in the lower right, so we’re guessing the world is stuck in “What the hell is next?” mode.

Next?  Job Cuts

Challenger Job Cuts report is out:  Slashers from H.R. are lurking the halls, again with 77,000 layoffs last month.

“In the shortest month of the year, U.S.-based employers announced 77,770 job cuts in February, down a 24% from the 102,943 cuts announced in January. It is 410% higher than the 15,245 cuts announced in the same month last year, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

February’s total is the highest for the month since 2009, when 186,350 cuts were recorded. So far this year, employers announced plans to cut 180,713 jobs, up 427% from the 34,309 cuts announced in the first two months of 2022. It is the highest January-February total since 2009 when a total of 428,099 job cuts were announced in January and February.”

Significantly, the cuts were widespread – in all 30 areas that Challenger tracks.

Federal Cuts should start to reflect this in new unemployment filings and tomorrow’s report.  Here’s how this morning’s report laid out:  Highlighted increases should be alarming or foretelling.

This is one of those back-and-forth discussions which we can never be too sure of.  Because while job cuts are bad (means a recession, or worse) is on the way, the silver lining is it may caution the Fed against getting to exuberant with their hikes expected at month end.

Problem, though – and I do listen to the Powell discussions after FOMC meetings – he’s been crystal clear that 50 basis point hikes were coming.  And now  he’s talking about higher than expected.  Well, based on that, you can send the April debacle ahead:

  • We think there’s an even-money chance the Fed will raise 3/4’s, no9t just as half.
  • When that happens, the Euro will go into semi-collapse because the U.S. will then be firmly on a “higher for longer path” which will swamp the wusses of Euroland who have (as demonstrated by the Ukraine war) hornswoggled about the last of the Greater Fools into their regional Ponzi scheme.
  • And about the middle of April is when remote viewers are beginning to see a lot of “darkness” around mid-month.  If it’s as simple as an EMP attack on the war mongering UK that’s about the best case we can come up with,
  • Because in the weeks that follow, the weather in early May turns into the good time of year for the Chinese to “reunite” with Taiwan.

The Neocons (low neo Libs, having flipped into Biden lah-lah land, are desperate to get Putin to use nukes first, so Israel (which will likely use nuclear bunker busters against Iran) would have a strong PR case if mushrooms were being planted by others, first.  All really sick shit.

And all because so many people at the top want their bubble lives where servants do the real work like laundry, housecleaning, making meals, mowing the lawn, fixing the car…you know…us plebes.

The world is morally bankrupt because we place business models above quality.  A new Kenworth is good for several million miles of demanding zero-downtime OTR trucking.  Yet the last passenger cars to walk the talk on quality were the Checker Motors products and the early Beetles.  Did you know more than 21-million of them were built?  And I’d buy a VW Thing in a heartbeat if I could find one at a steal it price. Add A/C somehow and who cares if the windows are hand-cranked.  We’ve become such lazy f**ks we can’t open a window?

Sheesh.

Free Speech Ban Idiocy

We have often referred to Washington State as a communist stronghold.  They subvert border enforcement and don’t place by anyone’s rules but their own.  Kinda like Portland with fewer lasers and Molotov’s.  But here we go- Attack on Constitutional rights: Washington state AG wants to criminalize speech by barring any dissent against vaccine mandates, election outcomes (citizens.news).  The once democrat party is now taking on the mantle of News Nazi Left.

Meantime, we know what kind of guy DeSantis is, after he called for bloggers to register if they ran paid content: Ron DeSantis Blasts Media for Tying Him to Bloggers Bill (mediaite.com).  The problem with all this has to do with political advertising and no one has a simple answer to that problem.  Meanwhile, we got bigger fires like SBF being loose that should scare any freedom (and not the kind you buy and pay for) people.  Speaking of which, see where SBF’s lawyers to request for trial postponement – Here is why…  Bet me a democrat judge will give him whatever?

Slop and Glop

Better not get off that cheap: Norfolk Southern CEO to apologize before Congress over East Palestine, Ohio, train derailment.  Damage control.

Pre-election fairytale often told:  Biden budget proposal aims to cut deficits by $3tn | Fortune.  Massive unwind of IRS and an honest national sales tax would save how much and make how much by closing loopholes for rich pricks? OH… I see why it will never happen…

Meantime, Biden’s hard at work selling arms: Biden to highlight nuclear submarine deal with UK, Australia leaders in San Diego | San Luis Obispo Tribune.  Too bad Australia stopped being a free country with lockdowns like we did…give them nukes?  Just part of the plan to piss off China and get the two front global war going next year?  Or sooner…

URE is right on crypto cons more by the day as “another one bites the dust” in Bitcoin, ether fall after go-to crypto bank Silvergate announces liquidation.”  Old man doesn’t like to be right but all too often IS if you pay attention. $21,560 ish early.  Do I hear $15,000 and lower ahead?  Get your crime money, do your part to wreck the environment and piss away energy.  Step right up!

Well, enough of the vile and bile, huh?

Wait, almost forgot to mention The Poll: Americans divided on whether “woke” is a compliment or insult.  We are not surprised that 78 percent of democrats are that stupid.  But 37 percent of republicans have swallowed the Marxist lingo swill?  Scary. Come on people:  Constitution still matters and equity is not in the core docs.  EQUALITY means we all get to work our asses off, but we don’t have to share except as personally moved.  Lord, we’re sooooooooooooooooo….

Market futures continue to erode.  Hit & run positions for us, thanks. Leave the casino before the goons come out…

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

46 thoughts on “Profitectomy: Slip-Sliding Away”

  1. Nuclear power plant loses power …

    “It was the sixth time the plant was in a state of blackout since it was taken over by Russia months ago, forcing it to rely on 18 diesel generators that can run the station for 10 days, Energoatom said.
    Nuclear plants need constant power to run cooling systems and avoid a meltdown.
    “The countdown has begun,” Energoatom said.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-09/russia-strikes-many-ukrainian-regions-power-cut/102074434

    Let’s see, today’s the 9th. and Spring begins March 20th. Yep, that’s about 10 days from now. Hmmm.

    Weren’t we recently talking about Springtime and potential nuke issues? Correct me if I’m wrong.

    Welcome to the new age …

    https://youtu.be/vrgaB9xu7GM

    • hmm..I’m just waiting to see how long it takes for the wife to decide we need backup power.. the substation popped.. and they aren’t sure just how long it will take..we are presently in a grid down scenario..
      everything runs on power

    • It has always mystified my why nuclear power plants designs cannot be SELF-SUPPORTING. All that power available and some cannot be diverted to self-cooling…? Lousy design.

      The future of nuclear power is Thorium. Plentiful fuel, meltdown-proof… or harmless if it does. Smaller power output. Doesn’t produce plutonium or weapons grade waste, though, but really… don’t we already have enough plutonium to crisp fry the planet?

      • Business Model = Cooling Ponds – from the very beginning of nuke power industry.

  3. They’re not “woke”, they’re sound asleep and living in George Soros’ wet dream of destroying America.

    • the link to that story isn’t working.. it just keeps taking me to the log in page for it..

      • Yes!

        Additional info here about “Nuland” by Martin Armstrong.

        Victoria Nuland is really of Ukrainian Jewish descent. Her family changed their name to try to hide their Jewish ethnic background. She really would be Nudelman, not Nuland. She is actually the daughter of Yale bioethics and medicine professor Sherwin B. Nuland, who changed his surname from Nudelman to Nuland. She has retained her family name Nuland to perhaps further hide her Jewish connection by being married to Robert Kagan.

        Her husband, Robert Kagan, authored the “real Iraq Study Group” report of the American Enterprise Institute. This was the Neocon view of regime change. Kagan was said to have convinced President George W. Bush, to order the “surge” plan for changing the course of the Iraq War.

        https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/neocons/us-is-losing-another-war-ukraine/

        • There’s much more.

          Like Soros, she has had her dirty little fingers in every local war in that region and in the Middle East. Like Hillary, her #1 goal is (and has been, for at least the last 25 years) to get the U.S. into a shooting war with Russia.

          I don’t understand the politics of that region and I don’t try. I just accept that they are what they are.

          BTW, the Vindman twins are Ukrainian, too. Vichy, and the twins, all are fluent, and speak both Russian and Ukrainian without an accent…

        • Nein, nein ,nein – they are OG Kazarian family, not jewish , ..that be delusion/coverup of a truly despicable peoples/race. name stealers, id stealers…you name the outrageous crime (s) , and I will show you the Originators.

  5. Bear on the boat:

    Tricksy to press bets on the right side and quickly exit losers before becoming “married” to a position waiting for rebound. That’s where “overhead supply” comes from.

    Long ago we went to sulky racing. I usually bet on the jockey instead of the horse. We also played some greyhound racing. An old bettor expression is “bet on the dog who just shit” (him being faster due to evacuating). Seems about right for stocks too?

    Green? Saul is just about done melting last weekends snow so Ole Man Winter is slated to replace it with 5-8″ of new stuff tonight. This will clock day 25 of -0- solar gain on local panels.

    We wonders what Arch Crawford would have made of all the vol. during the full worm moon? Rewind to cycles discussion of long long ago (where I first found your Ureness).

    Write when you get sun,
    Egor

    • Morning call:  Despite best efforts this week I become convinced there’s something, or many things, I don’t know.

      Overnight news drilled down on SVB (Silicon Valley Bank) which has become a poster child for the recent melt.  It’s not a new institution, has been around for a long time and funded tech darlings / VCs.  They are in midst a depository run and their stock is down 90% ish (mostly in the last 72 hours).

      Silvergate, a crypto / bank hybrid has gone from $150 to $3 in 15 months and has announced closure.  I believe a Federal deposit fund just gave them a bailout totaling $4B-ish (which makes no sense since they aren’t / weren’t a “regular” depository bank.  Whether this has caused the crypto crater -or- the reverse?

      https://finviz.com/crypto.ashx

      Any / every time we have a banking imbroglio the question is do we consider this an outlier or might it be systemic?  Monday I would have said no.  This morning I wonder.  Banks are counter-parties to many firms (along with each other).  JPM, which I believe is “best in breed” fell 5% yesterday and is down 10% in March alone.  Why?  Things we don’t know?  I don’t know.

      https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/JPM?qsearchterm=jpm

      The VIX is in progress a spike but … from very low levels.  If it rises above 23 then 24.5 we may see messy trading ahead.  The most interesting item I note yesterday and overnight is, for the first time in a long time, the traditional reaction where declining stocks causes a rush into Treasuries has occurred (vs both declining together).  In a sad way that might be healthy.

      At 8:30 am EST we get employment numbers.  That read may point the way today given recent figures have suffered “adjustment” fatigue.  Is good job news bad news (with a Fed mtg approaching)?  Is bad news good news (ditto Fed)?  If bad news becomes bad news we are in deep Kimchi.

      Last: the S&P500 decline has once again put markets below the long term declining trend line and the 200 DMA.  There has been considerable chart consolidation right in the area where the descending trend line met the (bear market) rally uptrend line and broken the contracting triangle “flag” yet been inconclusive as to follow-through direction.

      That’s all until there’s more …

  6. Hey hey whadaya say – cant get up the chimney with the curve this way.

    – its like perverted, but Inverted =meaning the the 6 month bill has a higher interest rate “coupon” than the 30 year treasury !?! wtf, over?

    What presactly does that say about US Govmints ability to Pay its billz in the not too distant future? What does it say about USD having Value in the rest of the world? Really think that chineseum scheisse is coming back to US shores/ports? really? Sure, right after Russian metals/grains and oil start flowing West again into the Progressive Commie States of Woke America

    My main man in black has the answer in a catchy lil tune called ring of fire – the current state of USA finances, while first tune is how da coot “walks” Life – https://youtu.be/s9SqvfZpWFo – Thats right – da coot is a VERY good boy. Will even roll over for tummy rubs..

    Shorting Credit/comm.RE, w/Puts, Put spreads.

    • trading ETF options note.. NLY March 20 Puts – Sold < 70%-yesterday. Selling NLY March 19's < 350% SHAZAM ! half day playas!, an hour behind EST. Letting the rest ride on brokers dime ; )
      .. time to plant that MonkeyPod/Raintree and "mount" (2) 1/2 coconuts wit new White moth Orchids in respective Orchid Garden/Cospes. Will get after orange Hibiscus and 2 shampoo gingers manaa, 82 wit ton humaditities.. its a wonderful day in da neighborhood.

      Mr Ure – may be reprising the ole Weekly Bank Failure report soonly..down down down in a burning ring of fire, they be going

  7. our local substation just popped..they aren’t sure how long it will take..or if they have the (Chinese) parts to repair it..
    I walk outside and can hear all the backup generators

  8. Do I hear $15,000 and lower ahead?

    $7,500.00 George that would approximate the 90% correction from the $64K ATH. BTC needs a retracement of that magnitude to complete the bear market cycle. While everyone pays attention to the Fort Meade Langley Github MIT Central Banking GenSlur Honey Pot . Don’t look over here, LOL.

    https://financefeeds.com/jp-morgan-if-ripple-wins-sec-lawsuit-xrp-is-poised-for-significant-adoption/

    You all have been good little audience participants in the Greatest Show on Earth, now watch closely as the world of fiat finance is transformed from a 400 Quadrillion Dollar papered over price discovery suppression apparatchik into a burning Phoenix rising. LOL.

    • Yo Steevo,

      how youse feel about Fred G Sanfords fav drink Chamripple ur no its Champipple, but close enough for govt. work..if youse nose what I saying.

      Guess its Bob & GratefulGerry then… https://youtu.be/5yJmBC7cMTM …simpli “MAGIC”

      ?

  9. Late yesterday the Biden Admin proposed that the IRS close one of the largest tax loopholes in cryptocurrency trading., this will bring-in over $24 billion in new tax revenue annually.
    – The crypto-world didn’t seem to react at all.

    • What Taxes ?????????????????????????????????????

      I didnt sell no crypto (this year)

      Alwayz one step ahead of “da man”..

      BTC its a Currency – which is exchanged for goods and services rendered.

      money grubbing commie pinko’s and their precious fiat (green,cotton TP/loonies and toonies) With trillions of em lying around DC – NYC – Toronto -countries never going to run out of buttwipes, NEVER.

      • I see to remember that simply lying about his income was enough to get Al Capone – so you’re saying BCN is smarter than the man SO FAR? See your Ponzi Baby is under $20,000. You always ride planes down to the crash site even when Urte pal keeps handing you parachutes?>

  10. Re: A Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing

    Folks,

    “The Guardian” advises that there will be a service tomorrow in Kiev for a departed Hero of the Ukraine in the Battle of Bakhmut. The commander of the Da Vinci Wolves was killed. Apparently the ‘Wolves descend from elements of Azov Battallion.

  11. “But here we go- Attack on Constitutional rights: Washington state AG wants to criminalize speech by barring any dissent against vaccine mandates, election outcomes (citizens.news). The once democrat party is now taking on the mantle of News Nazi Left.”

    I have heard that a picture says a thousand words.. so what is going on with the democratic party in the USA. My guess is this photo says it all…..

    https://media.fugly.com/IMAGES/Random/head_up_ass.jpg

  13. I’m getting into this ‘survival farming’ thing. Local filipinos love a yard where ‘everything is edible’, and except for the grass and decorative Hibiscus flowers (which you can make tea with) that is my yard. Yesterday my friend and I made 28 Lau Lau.
    https://onolicioushawaii.com/lau-lau/
    Except for the pork, it all came from the yard. And in a pinch, there is plenty of wild pork ‘on the hoof’ here on the island. Luau leaf and stems from the Taro plants sprouting from the mulch pile, and the root corm is also a starch staple of the ancient Hawaiians. Purple sweet potato was bartered from a neighbor, who got some Lau Lau in return. We had an assembly line going all morning to fill the steamer pots which steamed all afternoon. Then bag ’em and freeze them. Local plate lunch entrees!

  14. I jumped in early this morning., and then everything stalled. The NASDAQ100 slowly inched it way up., and I was very close to being stopped out.., then it all stalled again., slowly headed down., then it dropped fast.., NASDAQ100 now down 175.., and I am out. Good trade., but for an hour there I thought I made a bad one. Dow down 450pts., the Dow has lost over a thousand points in two days of trading., and is now below it’s 280 DMA.

  16. I’ll be the first to admit that a number of these NDE recounting videos on YT are complete bunk but then there are others that have a ring of sincerity in them. This is one that ought to give anyone out there that is experiencing stress over our frequent subject matter here a measure of comfort. Part of this person’s story deals with recurring numbers in one’s life. They do have meaning. Mine is 243. It’s just a guess but if that’s a date – February, 2043, I’m going to be so danged old – 86 – there’s not much I’ll be interested in other than moving on so it could be my “expiration date”. But, given the stuff we talk about here I’d be surprised to see that I’ve lasted that long.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPFv1p6cORc

  17. Speaking of compounding I think the “Rule of 72” equation is t=72/r

    t = compound periods
    r = rate of return.

    If your rate is 1% > you’ll 72/1 = 72 compounds until a double.

    5% a trade is 15 trades to double.

  18. “Norfolk Southern CEO to apologize before Congress over East Palestine, Ohio, train derailment.”

    I’m glad he’s sorry — ‘Guess that makes everyone all-even…?
    _______

    “Biden budget proposal aims to cut deficits by $3tn”

    By spending $3tln a year more than the United States takes in? Ah swears, I ain’t evah gonna get this here new math stuff…

    BTW, the top 1% paid 42.3% of ALL income taxes last year.

  19. Yesterday there were several posts on how to communicate when the SHTF. Has anyone here had any experience with the “goTenna” mesh network? It would be easier to convince my kids to get one of these gadgets than to invest time and money in ham radios.

    gotennamesh.com

      • Thanks! I’ll appreciate his evaluation. Right now there’s a waiting list for some of their products, so I presume many are seeing the need for alternative communication modes.

  20. Bitcoin is down below $20K in the early morning hours. I’m not seeing a bargain. The Fed uses media smoke and mirrors to claim that market interest rates are “set” by the Fed, when in reality, the Fed follows commercial rates with only a small lag. Higher interest rates don’t favor Ponzi’s. The Ponzi draw is high earnings with no supporting reality basis. Will crypto investors catch on that they are investing in a virtual kennel of overpriced crypto-dogs ? Oh wait, wasn’t Krypto the fictional super-dog (not to be confused with an Indian token)? Life mirrors the ‘toons. Wiley token investors beware.

  22. A Global Banking Crisis and Global Equity Collapse

    George,
    Both SVB and the Russell 2000, the latter laden with Zombie companies and unable to turn a profit sufficient to even repay the interest on outstanding debt, had nonlinearity today. You related SVB’s conclusion and the Russell gapped down. US equities appear to following a 13 October 2022 nadir valuation: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x terminal fractal series of 16/38/35/16 of 24 days. The lower high valuation of the third 35 day third fractal was on 16 February 2023.

    This can be observed on weekly fractal basis as a 13 Oct 4/9/8/4 of 6 week :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x fractal series.

    Demonstrating the interconnectivity of the global asset-debt system, the Bank of Shanghai is following a November 2017 nadir valuation monthly series of 9/23/23/13 of 13 months.

    Within the context of a 1807 US hegemonic 36/90/90/54 year asset-debt macroeconomic fractal series; the next next 8 trading days will likely represent the 31-33 year second fractal nonlinearity of an interpolated 1981/82 13/31-33/33/20 year series.

    US debt instruments including ten year interest rates will receive inflows of cash exiting equities resulting in lower interest rates.

    • Which will really be problematic for the Fed which is trying to raise against market dynamics. (Did someone just say “Shit, that sound’s kinda dumb!” (Print yourself an MBA.)

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