Ure is up to his you-know in critical projects around here. So, once again, we will revert to our laser-like focus on what really matters.
First is the Fed and PPI
The expectations data spread is wider than usual going into the Fed meeting next week. Chit-chat Tuesday and decision Wednesday after lunch fgor the FRB.
One of the key drivers of the decision is just out: Producer Prices. Essentially, looking up the supply chain to see how it’s going to all work out:
“The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.3 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices also rose 0.3 percent in both October and September. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 7.4 percent for the 12 months ended in November.
In November, most of the increase in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.4-percent advance in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent.
Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.3 percent in November after rising 0.2 percent in October. For the 12 months ended in November, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 4.9 percent.”
The Fed is really hooked on “consumer prices less food and energy” which is really quite daft, since without food and without energy, nada happens.
Problematically, in case you hadn’t noticed, the price of gasoline is drifting down and that’s pushing our thinking to a “one last big rate jump” next week, but we shall see. The recent talk (higher for longer) [see: Market isn’t buying the Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ message: Strategist,] of lower rates is being way overblown, as we figure things.
The fact that the Triple A gas price report is back to levels seen a year ago doesn’t mean Bidenomics is working. It just means the economy is soft, people may be driving (a lot) less, and prospects for a sour spring are building. People are saving money where they can.
Inflation, unfortunately, is still a fact of life. Just not so much in gasoline, recently on a one-year basis.
One of the biggest problems in America right now is we have more jobs open than people to fill them. In fact, if you read stories like Why the jobs boom could worsen inflation and help trigger a recession, you can make an argument that open borders do have some economic basis.
Of course, qualified workers are NOT what’s coming in along the under-patrolled border sections; those being human and drug traffickers who are just a higher burden on society. Countering this? Law enforcements, prisons, courts…it’s all a huge industry. (Even very bad things can be monetized in America. It’s a proxy for peaceful growth. Scaled up, we get wars. Following the crumbs?)
Still too early to tell is the markets will zoom up for a Wave III (2)(v) or collapse on some left field news event. As of futures this morning?
While our usual brooding Scandanavian genes want desperately to go short this market, it may be too early, still. Patience is not my strong suit!
Speaking of which!!! On my reading list this week – which you might want to check out, is Johann Hari’s book “Stolen Focus: Why You Can’t Pay Attention–and How to Think Deeply Again.” Maybe it will help.
File most of this as “No point worrying, can’t do shit about it, but maybe useful to know…”
We are still not planning on getting vaxxed. Evidence of mal-medicine is still piling up: New Autopsy Report Reveals Those Who Died Suddenly Were Likely Killed by the Covid Vaccine ? Brownstone Institute.
Chuck Schemer’s job just got a lot more difficult: Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema Leaves Democrat Party to be an Independent – 270toWin.
Blacklisting by Social seems even more revelations: Suppression of right-wing users exposed in latest ‘Twitter Files’ (nypost.com). Enjoying freedom while it lasts? Hunter Biden spotted in New York as congressional probe heats up.
How long as the Crypto Ponzi scheme been going? Years, right? Yet FINALLY the SEC might do something: US SEC asks companies to evaluate disclosure obligations amid crypto market disruption. We all know which party was getting the bulks of crypto money…
Another personality talking up crypto comes into focus: Kevin O’Leary reveals that FTX paid him $15 million (coingape.com). Seeing how influencers work in Ponzi schemes?
Mother of All Demos
Know what December 9th is? Tech’s Birthday, in a very real manner of speaking. Because on this day WAAAY back in 1968, a computer scientist by the name of Douglas Engelbart put on the Mother of All Demos at the Association for Computing Machinery conference in San Francisco.
The Wikipedia entry picks it up from there:
The live demonstration featured the introduction of a complete computer hardware and software system called the oN-Line System or, more commonly, NLS. The 90-minute presentation demonstrated for the first time many of the fundamental elements of modern personal computing: windows, hypertext, graphics, efficient navigation and command input, video conferencing, the computer mouse, word processing, dynamic file linking, revision control, and a collaborative real-time editor. (1968!!!) Engelbart’s presentation was the first to publicly demonstrate all of these elements in a single system. The demonstration was highly influential and spawned similar projects at Xerox PARC in the early 1970s. The underlying concepts and technologies influenced both the Apple Macintosh and Microsoft Windows graphical user interface operating systems in the 1980s and 1990s.”
The Michael Hiltzik book “Dealers of Lightning” chronicles the magic of early X-PARC (Xerox-Palto Alto Research Center). Because so much of modern life was born there:
- Laser printers.
- Computer-generated bitmap graphics.
- The graphical user interface, featuring skeuomorphic windows and icons, operated with a mouse.
- The WYSIWYG text editor.
- Object Oriented Programming.
- …and so much more…
Nuclear scientists made a big bang on our thinking, but behaviors came from X-PARC.
One other tech note, and this really underscores the bursts of innovation in tech since the late 1960s: FTC Sues To Block Microsoft’s Acquisition of Activision – Geek News Central. Innovators and coders to accountants and lawyers, yessir…tghe sad degradation of progress.
ATR: Faster Video
One of Ure’s major discoveries (at least of the past 24-hours!) is how much difference an upgraded video card can make.
Our BigBox on the desk is 64GB Ram and many TB of space. But until yesterday, the video was nothing special. THEN it changed with the install of a new ZOTAC video card.
I discovered that piping out RGB on the HDMI link didn’t give me anywhere near the color vibrancy as the changing the output to YCbCr420 from the usual RGB gave a much more pleasant display, even on the old monitor.
This is all driven by my goal of getting a refresh rate on the monitor of 40 Hz since that’s the flicker rate associated with improvements in memory in general and Alzheimer’s in particular. When you have one of those “ticking genes” you want every edge you can get.
Not saying there’s value there, but what’s the risk? World might be a smarter place if we went to 40 hz screen rates, is all I’m hinting at…
Meantime, if your equipment supports YCbCr, you might like the performance over RGB. A typical article on point is Rgb vs. Ycbcr444: How to Choose the Best Output Color Format.
Write when you get rich,