Producer Prices, Blah Rally, Mother of all Demos Day

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Ure is up to his you-know in critical projects around here.  So, once again, we will revert to our laser-like focus on what really matters.

First is the Fed and PPI

The expectations data spread is wider than usual going into the Fed meeting next week.  Chit-chat Tuesday and decision Wednesday after lunch fgor the FRB.

One of the key drivers of the decision is just out: Producer Prices.  Essentially, looking up the supply chain to see how it’s going to all work out:

“The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.3 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices also rose 0.3 percent in both October and September. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 7.4 percent for the 12 months ended in November.

In November, most of the increase in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.4-percent advance in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.3 percent in November after rising 0.2 percent in October. For the 12 months ended in November, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 4.9 percent.”

The Fed is really hooked on “consumer prices less food and energy” which is really quite daft, since without food and without energy, nada happens.

Problematically, in case you hadn’t noticed, the price of gasoline is drifting down and that’s pushing our thinking to a “one last big rate jump” next week, but we shall see.  The recent talk (higher for longer) [see: Market isn’t buying the Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ message: Strategist,] of lower rates is being way overblown, as we figure things.

The fact that the Triple A gas price report is back to levels seen a year ago doesn’t mean Bidenomics is working.  It just means the economy is soft, people may be driving (a lot) less, and prospects for a sour spring are building.  People are saving money where they can.

Inflation, unfortunately, is still a fact of life. Just not so much in gasoline, recently on a one-year basis.

One of the biggest problems in America right now is we have more jobs open than people to fill them.  In fact, if you read stories like Why the jobs boom could worsen inflation and help trigger a recession, you can make an argument that open borders do have some economic basis.

Of course, qualified workers are NOT what’s coming in along the under-patrolled border sections; those being human and drug traffickers who are just a higher burden on society.  Countering this?  Law enforcements, prisons, courts…it’s all a huge industry.  (Even very bad things can be monetized in America.  It’s a proxy for peaceful growth.  Scaled up, we get wars.  Following the crumbs?)

Elliott Ponder

Still too early to tell is the markets will zoom up for a Wave III (2)(v) or collapse on some left field news event.  As of futures this morning?

While our usual brooding Scandanavian genes want desperately to go short this market, it may be too early, still.  Patience is not my strong suit!

Speaking of which!!!  On my reading list this week – which you might want to check out, is Johann Hari’s book “Stolen Focus: Why You Can’t Pay Attention–and How to Think Deeply Again.”  Maybe it will help.

Newsomograph

File most of this as “No point worrying, can’t do shit about it, but maybe useful to know…”

We are still not planning on getting vaxxed.  Evidence of mal-medicine is still piling up:  New Autopsy Report Reveals Those Who Died Suddenly Were Likely Killed by the Covid Vaccine ? Brownstone Institute.

Chuck Schemer’s job just got a lot more difficult:  Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema Leaves Democrat Party to be an Independent – 270toWin.

Blacklisting by Social seems even more revelations:  Suppression of right-wing users exposed in latest ‘Twitter Files’ (nypost.com).  Enjoying freedom while it lasts?  Hunter Biden spotted in New York as congressional probe heats up.

How long as the Crypto Ponzi scheme been going?  Years, right?  Yet FINALLY the SEC might do something:  US SEC asks companies to evaluate disclosure obligations amid crypto market disruption. We all know which party was getting the bulks of crypto money…

Another personality talking up crypto comes into focus: Kevin O’Leary reveals that FTX paid him $15 million (coingape.com).  Seeing how influencers work in Ponzi schemes?

Mother of All Demos

Know what December 9th is?  Tech’s Birthday, in a very real manner of speaking.  Because on this day WAAAY back in 1968, a computer scientist by the name of Douglas Engelbart put on the Mother of All Demos at the Association for Computing Machinery conference in San Francisco.

The Wikipedia entry picks it up from there:

The live demonstration featured the introduction of a complete computer hardware and software system called the oN-Line System or, more commonly, NLS. The 90-minute presentation demonstrated for the first time many of the fundamental elements of modern personal computing: windows, hypertext, graphics, efficient navigation and command input, video conferencing, the computer mouse, word processing, dynamic file linking, revision control, and a collaborative real-time editor. (1968!!!) Engelbart’s presentation was the first to publicly demonstrate all of these elements in a single system. The demonstration was highly influential and spawned similar projects at Xerox PARC in the early 1970s. The underlying concepts and technologies influenced both the Apple Macintosh and Microsoft Windows graphical user interface operating systems in the 1980s and 1990s.”

The Michael Hiltzik book “Dealers of Lightning” chronicles the magic of early X-PARC (Xerox-Palto Alto Research Center).  Because so much of modern life was born there:

  • Laser printers.
  • Computer-generated bitmap graphics.
  • The graphical user interface, featuring skeuomorphic windows and icons, operated with a mouse.
  • The WYSIWYG text editor.
  • Interpress.
  • Ethernet.
  • Object Oriented Programming.
  • …and so much more…

Nuclear scientists made a big bang on our thinking, but behaviors came from X-PARC.

One other tech note, and this really underscores the bursts of innovation in tech since the late 1960s:  FTC Sues To Block Microsoft’s Acquisition of Activision – Geek News Central.  Innovators and coders to accountants and lawyers, yessir…tghe sad degradation of progress.

ATR: Faster Video

One of Ure’s major discoveries (at least of the past 24-hours!) is how much difference an upgraded video card can make.

Our BigBox on the desk is 64GB Ram and many TB of space.  But until yesterday, the video was nothing special.  THEN it changed with the install of a new ZOTAC video card.

I discovered that piping out RGB on the HDMI link didn’t give me anywhere near the color vibrancy as the changing the output to YCbCr420 from the usual RGB gave a much more pleasant display, even on the old monitor.

This is all driven by my goal of getting a refresh rate on the monitor of 40 Hz since that’s the flicker rate associated with improvements in memory in general and Alzheimer’s in particular.  When you have one of those “ticking genes” you want every edge you can get.

Not saying there’s value there, but what’s the risk? World might be a smarter place if we went to 40 hz screen rates, is all I’m hinting at…

Meantime, if your equipment supports YCbCr, you might like the performance over RGB.  A typical article on point is Rgb vs. Ycbcr444: How to Choose the Best Output Color Format.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

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George Ure
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19 thoughts on “Producer Prices, Blah Rally, Mother of all Demos Day”

    • Last time I checked, there were 40 covid vaccines according to Wikipedia. Variety, use to be the spice of life but I think that’s taken a bed turn.

      Here’s another one for the 6 month old group …

      https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20221208/fda-oks-bivalent-covid-shots-young-children

      Long term effects? Anybody’s guess. (?)

      I still recall covid not effecting children … until the vaccines came out … I get the impression there needs to be a vaccine for the vaccines. Maybe in time there will be. Again —> (?)

      Local news reported 3 people died of covid. They were in their 70’s and 80’s … but no mention of their level of health prior to contracting covid or if they were vaccinated prior. —> (?) Actually, first news of (anyone drying from covid) around here in quite a while.

      Still, see a very few people wearing masks. To each their own, I guess.

      I happy with getting covid and having acquired natural antibodies. Worked for me.

      And as it’s flu shot season, which is always followed by Flu Season … I’m passing on that injection as well, and doing the vitamin D, C and Zink routine.

      Peace

    • I’ve already refused $100 cash twice if I was to get shot up, and got excluded from the university for almost a year. So far, no jabs, and I intend to stay that way. I know far too many people who had serious consequences and some for whom it never resolved.

      Your body, your choice!

  2. Imagine there is no cia, its easy if U try…

    -40 years old – shot down by a Bush family friend (cowinkydinkUthink?) in front of his home.

    ..evil bastards outraged Humanity with this one and We still hold in high regard the evil Von bush family members. think about that as recall evil bush sr slicing his hand across his throat at ?? during the trump v whore of babylon debates.

    https://youtu.be/QfgVhE1M6ns

    wrote this in spray paint on “The Wall” in Prague – high up, prolly painted over by now…

    IMAGINE – it IS Ure greatest weapon – Practice..

  3. Yesterday we had this:
    A worldwide recession is just around the corner, and BlackRock is expecting it to bring more market turbulence than ever before.
    [ Note, before reading any further BlackRock stock is down 23% for the year.]
    The global economy is leaving a four-decade stretch of stable growth and modest inflation to enter a period of massive upheaval and instability, BlackRock analysts wrote in the firm’s 2023 Global Outlook.
    “Central bankers won’t ride to the rescue when growth slows in this new regime, contrary to what investors have come to expect.”
    …, adding that “..what worked in the past won’t work now, and “buying the dip” no longer applies to this regime.”
    “The market probably bottoms before recession starts,” & “We see the market eroding for the next two years.”
    …, and this morning we have;
    “Stocks have entered a new bull market and the S&P 500 could soar 26% in the next 12 months. We’re starting a new bull market,” Leuthold’s chief strategist told Bloomberg as he sees a “60% probability of the US economy sidestepping a recession.”
    .
    Is it any wonder that so many investors are completely baffled ? As most of the financial “advice” coming from these investment firms is politically bias, try to remember that there is no ‘Red’ money., no ‘Blue’ money.., in your pocket., just green. Try not to be political, it is mathematical. It’s your “Green”.., listen to everyone., then do your own research.

    • Yep, no kidding d’Lynn. It seems like down is the way but when Jpow made his little speech and sit down q&a the market ripped higher like it was a Saturn5 rocket when nothing new was said. And seemed to indicate higher rates for longer which should have been a negative. Got a bit beat up that day. Makes you question what is really going on.
      Days later it all looks different again.

  4. So congress is slapping each other on the back over passing the $858 (B)illion defense bill – tell me again how the fed is going to ‘pivot’ here shortly and start to lower rates. Who is going to buy all that paper to fund this? People better get ready for ‘higher for longer’ with a peak rate of 8.5-9%…..

  6. No rat juice here baby . Had a 30 stone biker pull a double barrel on me once . I’m more scared of the rat juice . Farken suicide if yah even smell the sheet . I’ll call my mate Dennis the 30 stone biker if they come near me

  9. Reports are that Vlad’s gonna have some colon surgery. Can’t wait to see if he wakes up from the anesthetic or with a “disability” that prevents him from continuing in office.
    Time to talk about a post-Putin Russia. Bang or wimper?

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