PPI or CPI Turning Point: Tuesday or Thursday?

by

(See the Reader Advisory at the end of this column…)

PPI (CPI Tomorrow)

Producer Prices can be an indication of inflation in the pipeline. Here’s what’s just been announced by the government. (Pass me a grain of salt, would you?)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.1 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.2 percent in June and were unchanged in May. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in July.

The July rise in the index for final demand can be attributed to prices for final demand goods, which moved up 0.6 percent. In contrast, the index for final demand services fell 0.2 percent. Services advanced 0.3 percent in July after increasing 0.1 percent in June. For the 12 months ended in July, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 3.3 percent.

That’s still a lot of inflation “in the pipe” so CPI tomorrow will be definitive. The odds of a rate cut at the September FOMC are pegged around 49-1/2 percent on the CME FedWatch tool, so near as a slam-dunk as you’ll find. But a cut between sessions is possible, depending on the carry-trade BoJ and CRE messes.

Speaking of Real Estate:

Be careful what you sign with real estate agents trying to show you properties!  NAR settlement set to hit real estate agents this week: Here’s how they’re preparing.  One way is for the agent who shows property to demand 3 percent (cash at closing).  Anything is negotiable, so eye wide open and read everything carefully!

Markets may be waiting around for the CPI tomorrow, too. Because that will tell us when the Fed cuts rates.  Which, in turn is likely to panic the markets.

Still, we can see two bounce levels the market could still rise to in the area of the white arrow on the right here:

The red trend line is the 85-day moving average.  And above that is the short-term average channel.  A rise to – and a turn down – is out expectation before green – a drop to the middle of the previous trend channel.

But there’s still Holiday Happiness Rallies to consider ahead of Labor Day weekend which is just 17-days off.  A blowoff to the upside needs to get a move on…

Popcorn and War

Halloween is still 79 days away (last minute pumpkins to plant?) and this may sound prematurely macabre. But we are sorting out our media plans (recliner, maybe some beers, chips and salsa) for when it all blows up.  Out of the nuclear bull’s eye cities there’s also the question of what to do with survivors, though that depends on which country we’re talking.

What we’re not clear on is when the live coverage will begin on the networks.  Iran revenge on Israel to be ‘at substantial level’ – Mehr News Agency so we are getting hints, but not dates and times. The best guesses might come from Iran rejects calls for restraint  (voanews.com) but giving peace a chance Non-EU countries align with Iran sanctions.

Up the road a piece a competing war is getting ready to pop.  See, Vlad Putin looks at Ukraine and as arm of NATO.  Which is a tough half-truth to figure.  Not a member, BUT where’s all the arms coming from?  We think there is a risk of Vlad Putin going in theater nuclear because of power reducing headlines like Kyiv’s Top Commander: Ukraine Holds Almost 390 Square Miles of Russia’s Kursk Region After Incursion That Embarrassed Moscow | The New York Sun (nysun.com).  With the Lincoln making all possible speed for the Middle East., the question turns to “who goes nuclear first?”

The events I kicked around with my consigliere Monday would include a small to medium nuke (bunker buster) to ensure the end of Iranian enrichment.  The Israelis would have plausible deniability and would claim they used a conventional weapon and that the radiation resulting would be from Iran’s illicit work. Russia and China would counter-claim and the US would lie….

But as soon as nukes in any form go “weps free” I suspect there will be two or three instant uses worldwide. Feeding into a deflationary cascading global economic collapse and fiat money fails.

Did I mention  BTC is about $59,000 this morning?  Tell the true believers El Salvador Seals $1.6 Billion Deal To Bring Bitcoin City To Life (bitcoinist.com).

Creepy, Crawly, and Yawners

Good reviews of the discussion Ham group 3806 lsb (“It was more like listening in on a phone call…”) between Donald Trump and Elon Musk last night.  Musk Says Massive Cyberattack Delayed Trump Interview. If Trump had made the claim, the left would be yammering paranoia.  But if Musk says it, we will hear Hosannahs into the weekend. Rightly.

Still, even after a likely hack-attack, Kamala Harris uses Trump’s own words about DeSantis and his own Truth Social platform to troll Elon Musk interview.

Artistically, I’ve been asking Elaine what a strumpet-troll hybridization would look like. If she comes up with an answer, I will point her at the art gear and nudge her in the direction of a market between Grandma Moses paintings, and one-time reader Mark Frederickson’s work. Mark did a lot of art for Mad Magazine and has a most agreeable style, to my eyes (such as they are!)

Important Story from Monday.  Sometimes I forget to cover everything that needs covering.  In Monday’s column I referred to “Baker’s Weeks” because we are in the hottest weeks of the year (northern hemi, only, silly!). But failing to explain that (and you can’t hear the thoughts in my head).  So the sampling of what’s hot.  One Dead as Greek Wildfire Eases in Athens Suburbs, but High Winds Expected | NTD. While Firefighters in Lassen National Forest hold back Park Fire burning in Northern California (yahoo.com).,  Even in Ukraine A large-scale fire in the Andriiivskyi forest caused damages of more than 200 million hryvnias.

The Story supports a better headline today:

Shake and Bake:  With the PNW Juan de Fuca silent (locked?) our shake and bake quake is M 4.4 – 4 km SSE of Highland Park, CA (usgs.gov). Must be hard to live in the Southland, anymore: Don’t know whether to fear earthquakes or Sacrademento government more…

Useful Health Note

Out this morning from the NIH:  Routine lab tests are not a reliable way to diagnose long COVID | National Institutes of Health (NIH). We have several readers who may have long Covid, and there has been discussion about whether lab tests give a reliable indication.  Go read.

The coming politics are amazing. Jordan investigates daughter of judge in NY v. Trump case over her work for Kamala Harris, Democrats.

At the Ranch: Reader Advisory, Ham Notes

I have made a decision to migrate most of my writing over to the ($40/year) Peoplenomics.com site effective March 1, 2025.  A weekly (maybe twice) will appear on the UrbanSurvival free site.  But the ShopTalk series will be sunsetting then, as well.  Because there are only so many hours in a day and I will turn 76 in February.

UrbanSurvival is not paying me a return at all.  You will notice that I have dialed-back the (top Banner) ads that (obnoxiously) covered things up on this page, now and then.  The main issues with Urban involve TSW (time spent writing) and COO (costs of operation) with a side of PM (profile management).

As much personal energy as I have, the present schedule is a brutal one.  Not once, in the past few years, have I been able to sleep-in, revisit dreams, and take a whole day off.  I used to (years back) like to sleep in one day a week, have a Bloody Mary and fix up a mess of steak and eggs for breakfast, read for a while and snooze out for the morning.  Not in years. Brother wants some time off. Boy time matters.

The cost of keeping Urban going is in the area of $500.  There is server time, themes for the content manager, plug-in for this and that, name-servers services, enhanced DNS and so forth.  Since I dialed the ads back, daily income is low – About $17 this week.  Could I increase that with more ads and getting in bed with the Social Media Devils?  Sure, but that would involve not “walking the talk.”  Pass.

Then there’s the whole “profile management” thing with a new Greatest Depression on the horizon.  I’m thinking that quietly sunsetting Urban into a once-weekly summary and rolling Peoplenomics out of HTML and into WordPress for better phone and tablet displays, plus retooling our ChartPack series into a single multi-page black and white PDF would give better resolution and would make review of past charts easier.

Son G2 will be boots on the ground this winter and he’s planning to build a house on the lower part of the property.  And we will share the job of making the “family stand” as much a self-supporting operation, as possible.  Shopping for farm implements continues, making rustic furniture for a little side-income, and putting in a couple of head of beef (raising a couple of “milker calves” is on the agenda.  And maybe a “deep well” with more than our present 40-solar panels to power as much as possible.

Off topic, there’s a new “thing” coming for hot country solar users.  A new product which is a mini-split air conditioner with a built-in MPPT solar controller to take direct input from solar panels to cool in the summer.  You can read more about ’em here.

This is another “early warning” that change is in the air around here.  On Peoplenomics this weekend, I’ll be posting tomorrow another couple of chapters on my “Anti-Aging: Tell your doctor…” book.

Ham Radio Notes

My Morse speed is down to 30 words per minute.  Which means I need to get back to CW ham radio and get my speed back up. While it’s (semi) true that Morse is “like riding a bike – you never forget” it’s equally true that you don’t park your bike for a year or five and then just jump into the Tour d France.

You’ll be interested that HF Signals, which came out a couple fo years back with a low-cost SSB (voice) and digital modes radio called the uBitX 6 has another new low-cost transceiver in the pipeline which you can inspect here. Called the sBitX 3, this one will have a $399 base price, puts out 24-watts, and handles all major modes like FT-8, RTTY, and PSKK-31 plus voice and Morse.  With built-in decodes a kind of plug in a keyboard and go thing.

I apologize for failing to do more articles on ham radio restoration and repair – the 150-odd pages of that book has been languishing or several years and it would be fun to finish is up. The art of old radio repair may not seem particularly “sexy” but as technologies come and go, it’s nice to be able to pick and choose among the “best ever” and still have it serviced now and then.

Judging by reviews on eHam.net, hard to be older transmitters like the Hallicrafters HT-37 and the SX-117.  And the Loudenboomer.  All of which I have in working shape, but now we get back to that damn ticking thing on the wall.

Winter is coming – and with it, time to make plans for AM ham radio voice work on the low bands.  I’m torn between the Johnson Viking II  (and HA-5 VFO) as one option, the GSB-100 with Thunderbolt amp, aschoice #2, or a simple digital VFO into an old Globe (from World Radio Labs) that features Heising modulation. (See PDF page 30 of the articles here, if you’re not familiar with Heising (and neat terms like “modulation reactors”.)

Long ramble, but much is rattling around my head. Perhaps kicked loose by the LA Quake overnight.

One for the Road:  I ripped out our old “comment notifier” code Monday and will be working on an upgraded replacement.  Reader D’Lynn was (for mysterious reasons) locked out by the old program but is now back with us.  We pay attention whose gains are 300+ percent for the year and are willing to share general discussion points of how they do it.

Write when you’re shaken or stirred,

George@Ure.net

71 thoughts on “PPI or CPI Turning Point: Tuesday or Thursday?”

  1. As you said, winter is coming. I see it and I sense it everywhere. I’d like to see this social group stay together for awhile. It’s the closest thing to family online that some of us have.

      • my rant is done. thank you. once again you are a most gernerous host.

        i spoke to THE DUDE this morning. as i do eveyday.

        in the world economy haa stabked for the the time being. the markets must be allowed to correct gradually. if they choose not to do that. its like i said. but i think its not just times 35. its to power of 35 times.

        according to what i drew, they will correct. the strength of the dollar comes from the marker correction.

        its what it did last time.

        in 2010 i bought a 5 bedroom house (built in 1943) on 2 acres for 189k. it sold ohhhh about 6 months ago again for 1.2 million.

        the coolest thing about the house was in the crawl space below the house was an original old school bomb shelter suited for a family of 5 to weather a nuclear attack back when fear was high about the cubans and russia.

        the thing is: how is a house go from $189k to $1.2 million in just 13 years. its the same house. same everything. same driveway, same deck, same property, same sinks, same toilets
        same door knobs, same oak hardwood floors. same bomb shelter below it.

        6.3 times the price for the same house. in just 13 years. its the same exact house. i wouldnt pay more than 189k for it.

        what that says to me is the Government is inflating house prices to raise the taxes on home owners.

        i listened to the Elon and Trump conversation again.

        and i understand when Trump says, When a Man swears the oath.

        “”I, Andy Steenberg., do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign or domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter. So help me God.”

        the oath becomes contagous in the hearts of men everywhere.

        i think he has too much faith in me. lol

        This is our last chance. its not so much who Trump is. its about what is behind him and what he represents.

        The picture, i drew from my dream, represents the strength of the dollar (among many things.) that means there must be a market correction prior to that moment. in order for gas to be less than $2 a gal

        there must have been a market correction prior to 07/04/2025.

        i have faith and i have hope. they must allow the markets to go into correction. i think it will soften the blow.

        i cant go to boarder patrol until certain personal financial issues are resolved. so i wait. and pray.

        the oath will have to wait and everything is on hold until those things are resolved.

        big quake huh? something i said? lol

        i am done with my rant. its time to listen. thanks again.

        im going to go sit and think a while. do what i can do and wait patently for the right word and next steps to present themselves.

        and return to the stance of:

        ok, cool, thanks! i am open to recieve.

        ~ it wasnt luck, it was God. ~

        • “the thing is: how is a house go from $189k to $1.2 million in just 13 years. its the same house. same everything. same driveway, same deck, same property, same sinks, same toilets
          same door knobs, same oak hardwood floors. same bomb shelter below it.”

          Exactly. That is the question. But only for thinking people.

          ” Thinking is hard work. That may be the reason so few engage in it.” – Unknown

        • Wishing you the best wrt the Border Patrol. I think you would be great for the job and that you would like it. Fingers crossed on your behalf.

        • (“the thing is: how is a house go from $189k to $1.2 million in just 13 years.”)

          It is.. the building down the street from us.. sold fifteen thousand twenty years ago.. its now worth over three hundred thousand dollars.. all that has changed is they put new siding on it..
          to justify the business model and the higher wages of the top they have to cut bottom or increase costs.. the last increase in the electricity bill alone.. it hit everyone including the companies.. just for the increase everyone should have gotten a nickle raise.. they didn’t of course.. but they cut hours off of the bottom.. that is exactly why my face prints are all over the last employers hospital.. they haven’t washed those windows in over thirty years.. they cut from the bottom to keep the elevation of the top..
          the companies that flourished back in the eighties with very little turnover were the ones where the top took a little less increase and kept the bottom secure.. the company was the family …then deregulation and outsourcing of industry promoting greet.. took the secured Social Security and medicare funds and gave them away promoted wars to gain for the greed of a few.. the business model changed from US to ME.. there is a cost involved with this in the social structure.. this cost puts a huge divider among the social classes.. history is repeating itself.. you can only cut so much off of the bottom before the top falls over though.. its what you teach all the toddlers learning to stack blocks.. its what you teach in preschool and kindergarten. it is the business model that destroyed civilization after civilization

    • Amen Joe!

      This site, with it’s owner and peanut gallery, has done more for me than the vast majority of the internet! IMHO, we are family!

  2. I’m a big fan of history rhyming when it comes to Wall Street.

    As an example, we’ve witnessed the first meaningful decline in U.S. M2 money supply since the Great Depression over the last two years. M2 money supply factors in everything in M1 (cash and coins in circulation, along with demand deposits in a checking account), and adds in savings accounts, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit (CDs) below $100,000.

    Most economists pay little attention to money supply because it’s risen with such consistency for 90 years. This is to say that an expanding economy has needed more capital to facilitate transactions. However, there’s been a greater than 3% decline in M2 since it peaked in April 2022.

    Last year marked only the fifth time in 153 years that M2 declined by at least 2% on a year-over-year basis. The previous four instances, which occurred between 1878 and 1933, coincided with periods of economic depression and double-digit unemployment rates. While a depression is ‘unlikely’ [ but possible ] today, a decline in discretionary spending, spurred by a reduction in M2, suggests a recession is knocking at the door.

    Additionally, the S&P 500’s Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio points to stocks being historically pricey. On Aug. 9 the P/E Ration of the S&P 500 stood at 34.47, or roughly double its average reading of 17.14, dating back to January 1871.

    But the more worrying aspect of the S&P 500’s Shiller P/E is how the broader market has reacted following instances where it’s surpassed 30. This has only occurred on six occasions dating back 153 years. Following the prior five instances, Wall Street’s major stock indexes shed on average 54% of their value. It seems that premium prices are not tolerated for very long.

    Back to “History Rhyming” on Wall Street. M2 money supply, the Shiller P/E, Bond Markets, and other predictive indicators strongly suggest a powerful bear market and/or outright crash is forthcoming.

    Two additional facts to consider – going forward from here:

    One: The stock market has never sold-off “below” a recession. A recession has been officially announced, then the markets drop. A market sell-off has never caused a recession.

    Two: Going back to the early 1960’s the stock markets have always crashed when the Federal Reserve cut’s interest rates – after a series of raising rates to fight inflation. Six times now this has occurred and all six times the markets have sold off. Usually within 30 days of the first cut. Anywhere from 24 % to 48% decline. Given the current historical high in the P/E Ratio – I am incline to think the upper percentage in decline – around 50%. [ A 50% drop “before” the election? Ouch ! ]

    “Stay Frosty !”

    • if they do it prior to the election kamala wont have a chance in hell of getting elected and if they do it after the election she will get the blame no matter what. and the demicrat party will be decimated. which is going to happen anyway.

      i think you are spot on. im thinking the same thing. we are on the same page. i think it will happen after the election. just to give kamala some sort of fighting chance. and she doesnt have much of a fighting chance.

      even my super far left friends up here in california 2.0 scratch their head and say, “what do ya mean on day one you are going to do this and that? you been in office for 3 years. you should have already done something.”

      d,

      jp morgan and warren buffet would hearily agree. look how they are all getting in to cash holdings. in advance. of course.

      berkshire has been liquidating assets for a while now. and moving into a strong cash position. for a while now.

      ya know George, 5 different people, unrelated in the last 2 weeks said to me.

      “you should do a website and a podcast dude. why dont ya do that?”

      i said well, id first have to have a good long term sustainable income to persue that as a full time position. podcasts and websites is the long game. its not like im going to be the new version of paul harvy over night.

      i mean it could happen.

      when i had my website and podcasts before i learned alot. one thing i learned is, it takes a while to get that going. and if its your only source of income? well there is a reason they say, “Starving writter”. hahahaha.

      id rather be a wealthy writer. like george.

      hahaha.

      first things first.

      great comment d’

      i appreciate you. we are on the same page.

    • Do you want to add Shiller Housing index adjusted for inflation since 1910. (data is on his Yale school. Just google it plus you can find the graphs on google.)

      Between 1910 and 2000. Housing adjusted for inflation was between 80 to 120 on the chart. Between 2000 and 2007. It went all the way to 200. Which means the charts said we were 40% over the all time high for home prices. What did housing pricing fall to 2012. Down 40%. Probably would have gone down farther if Wall Street had not bought 250,000 homes in 2012 to 2014.

      We are currently back to 205 on the charts. So again we are 40% over value in home prices. Last time the homeowners who qualified for bogus loan plus all the homeowners that refinanced that walked away from their loan after prices fell below the value of the house. This time it will be lost of jobs. Homeowners are so debted up. They will lose their house again and prices will fall again like 2008-2012.

  3. Deflationary signals are popping-up all over the place. This is a very different economic lesson that very few have experienced before.
    – I’ll do a little more research and post a brief ‘understanding’ of what would happen in a deflationary economy.
    – .., and actually – I am up 321 percent for the year.

    • thanks for sharing .. I hadn’t heard that in a very long time.
      I do feel the same way Joe M does.. as for me this is reminiscent of my family growing up coffee discussions ..

      • OBITUARY
        Emmett P. “Sonny” Geraci
        NOVEMBER 22, 1946 – FEBRUARY 5, 2017

        https://www.dignitymemorial.com/obituaries/mayfield-heights-oh/emmett-p-sonny-geraci-7283083

        MARIO RUIZ
        01/23/2019
        My condolences to the Geraci family, loved ones, friends, & fans.

        “Time Won’t Let Me” The Outsiders timeless classic.

        I was 13-14 when I first heard this perfect song.
        Sonny’s voice, the musicians, & awesome arrangements.

        Still listen to it, have it in my music player.
        Their music will endure for posterity.
        Thank You Sonny for your vocals{singing} & The Outsiders’ classic.
        Sincerely
        from
        S. TEXAS

  5. in regards to the mini-split. more time will be used having it plugged into 110v than direct solar/no batteries. depending on btu requirements, a 9000/ 29.5 seer…
    “Easily run all night from one 48 volt 100 amp battery.”
    https://signaturesolar.com/eg4-9k-mini-split-air-conditioner-heat-pump-9000-btu-seer2-29-5-plug-n-cool-do-it-yourself-installation/
    we’re cooling a mini-home/40′ shipping container so your mileage may vary.
    418′ is deep and the front bar ditch has never stopped flowing which results in a 53′ static well head at 56 gpm.
    https://www.twdb.texas.gov/publications/reports/historic_groundwater_reports/doc/M002.pdf

  6. Every time I read global news today, I have this image of a room full of set mousetraps on the floor waiting for someone to throw a ping pong ball through the door.

  7. ” Routine lab tests are not a reliable way to diagnose long COVID | National Institutes of Health (NIH)”.

    “Christine Grady (born 1951/1952) is an American nurse and bioethicist who serves as the head of the Department of Bioethics at the National Institutes of Health Clinical Center.

    Spouse
    Anthony Fauci ?(m. 1985”
    she is a fox in the hen house.

    now show me one person with the “novel long covid” who has NOT received the vaccine for covid,
    if I had got the vax, I would be using Carbon 60 to remove it.

    Elon and Trump, the globalist reaction was priceless,
    the satanists sent out a panic before the interview,,, even from across the pond ,,, I have to wonder what they were afraid of that could have been said by Donald or Elon
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/08/british-labour-mps-boycott-elon-musks-x-protest/
    free speech must be contained/censored,, ya know,, to save democracy
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/08/european-union-tyrants-send-letter-elon-musk-demand/

    the DDOS attack was icing on the cake,,, it made me laugh out loud.
    impressive number of views of the conversation, I wonder if the local trolls listened to it or just let the legacy news tell them what to think,,, ;-)
    as even google has their fingers in limiting search results that don’t follow what google wants you to see,,, hidden censorship

    can one even imagine what it would be like to listen to pedo Joe or cackling Cankle for two hours of talking without a prompter?

    it’s ure column,,, thanks for what we have already read.
    tobD’s philosopy,,, everything is in a state of change, it is just a matter of rate of change,,,
    there is “slow down ya go to fast, ya got to make the moment last” to
    “Highway to hell”

    • I need to look up an uncensored version of that interview. I had an appointment at exactly that time that could not be moved, so I couldn’t watch or listen to it. I’m sure one or more of the video sites has it.

      I’d say the effort to suppress the interview says more about it than possibly the interview itself. It should be fun to listen to while driving.

    • Socialists never want anyone else to have a “voice” once they get into power.

      Part of their “All Powerful Government” mindset creates in their minds the DEMAND that no one be allowed to criticize them or hold a different opinion than their’s … and they WILL USE the full power of the police powers of the State to try to ensure that happens.

      Look at Trudeau’s response to the Trucker’s Protests in Ottawa during the Covid lockdowns. Seizing and closing bank accounts, voiding business licenses and govt issued licenses including drivers’ licenses – so truckers could no longer work, was par for the course (with some arrests also with NO bail allowed). It is also important to note that ANYONE who contributed money or supplies to the protest were similarly targeted with their bank accounts being frozen and licenses suspended – how do you get paid or pay your bills? – merely for doing that act too.

      The viciousness of Socialists when they obtain power knows no bounds. I am sure they are ready to do the same here in the US …. some would say they have already started.

  8. “UrbanSurvival is not paying me a return at all. ”

    I think you’re right about the easy monetization being over. Providing content has turned into a commission based service paid by ads served. It had to be this way.

    In the end Musk has it right with the X everything app. One source for everything.

    As example thinking about last weeks multi-financial website lockouts the incident proves there’s only one financial entity and web skins providing an illusion of competition. C’mon, Schwab and Fidelity both going down at the same time. “Well, you know…”

    Also sometime last week – ‘CNN Effectively Worthless After Parent Warner Bros Takes $9.1 Billion Writedown’

    Why did it have worth and where did the worth go?

    X everything will be the one news source likely with A.I. generated peoples.

    • I like Elon, and X is useful, but I do believe in more than one source per function, if possible. My cell phone does only four things for me – phone, text, camera, and sound recorder. Everything else is done on various real computers with multiple screens and proper keyboards, along with other I/O devices. X needs competition or it will become a thought dicktator, just like Facebook and Google. WeChat has its place in China and is very efficient, but I don’t relish being one insect among others.

  9. Bread in Mesopotamia was cooked in three ways. Either on the inner walls of the tinuru (a cylinder-formed clay oven). On hot ashes/stones. Or in the case of leavened bread, in a dome oven. But in one of the world’s oldest recipes, another technique is revealed. The bread was cooked on a ceramic dish or pan on top of the tinuru.
    “pan-fried” flatbread had the purpose of covering meat already placed on another sheet of bread. But eating something like that sounds messy – today we do the same thing but call it casa de and fajita are all descendents of this .
    Now the recipe is pretty simple..
    if you wanted a bread using yeast add a packet of yeast.. or to keep it traditional you would take a bunch of grapes and crush them three days prior let stand darkened and covered . the natural yeast will smell a lot like young wine and be bubbling.
    the dough
    4 1/2 cups of stone ground flour
    1 tsp of salt
    2 tbsp of yeast grape juice
    2 cups of room temp water mix cover for an hour
    beat down kneed.
    cut it into small tennis ball sized balls flatten and put oil on your pan or griddle ….
    considering the tinuru And their flat bread.. the Navajo and Choctaw Indian tribes cooked and made their flatbread exactly the same way.. ancient tribes of the southwest used elevated clay bristles built on a table top the Navajo had clay pots as a stove with a clay griddle placed on top of it.
    they had clay dome ovens similar to those used by the ancient Mesopotamian people.
    in the past there have been discoveries of ancient Egyptian visitors that settled in the American southwest with a great deal of the traditions of the Mesopotamian civilizations incorporated in the native American legends and traditions..
    I believe these historical legends and cultures should be part of our schools..
    enjoy your flatbread..the casa de are wonderful daughter just made some last week..

      • a lot of native american tribes have similar traditions that have been passed down from one generation to another.. I would love to see them all taught in school as a regular curriculum.. many that complain to day about the horrible human tradgedies don’t even realize they are the same today in their home countries.. little girls are sold off for marriage and human slavery for pennies on the dollar.. because of the ancient traditions..

        https://www.quora.com/When-Muhammad-defeated-enemies-in-war-what-happened-to-the-women-on-the-opposite-side

        the traditions have not changed they are still the same..which has me curious about why our members of congress has done nothing to prepare their families for the What if.. they did allow in an enemy army into our country.. one look at the old testament and what they did.. its all there.. in the USA we live by the one verse not the whole story..

        • Speaking of:

          The Iraqi government is floating a piece of legislation which would lower the age of consent for sex to nine.

          Rumor has it, when the bill goes through, Messrs. Clinton and Biden will be in the first group of visa applicants…

  11. New to me, hams and pirates xmit IMAGES in the received waterfall:

    https://youtu.be/zXzsSk86qgM?feature=shared

    ** Attic Records Radio

    Attic Records Radio, 2 & 3 August 2024, 2318-0106*, 6961USB. Via a recording, a program in progress with music. Waterfall images at 2324, 2325, and two at 0105. Local noise came and went. Signal was occasionally 35454. AD from “Joe” about an odd calf exercise. 3800 Hz seemed right. (35443, Hunsicker, PA)

    6961 usb, 8-2/3-24, 2356 on Brookfield WI sdr with fair/poor S5-S7 signal, old song “c’est si bon” by unid crooner, “harbor lights” by ?, other old songs from 1950’s, thanks for the oldies. (Hassig-IL)

    “** AZID / WAZID Radio

    8 August 2024, 0057-0151*, 6938USB. Via a recording the program opened with a beep then a guitar solo of laid-back music—a great tune for a massage! Waterfall image of Nativ American warrior at 0118. Then an image for “AZID Radio,” immediately followed by one for “WAZID RADIO.” Good for a massage music through-out. More waterfall images and, at 0147 a digital transmission that only sent 180 of 385 segments before it ended, and the image did not form. A few words of CW and gone. 1600 Hertz sounded best. (3543, Hunsicker, PA)”

  12. from a medieval cookbook, by Ibn Razin al-Tujibi, the recipe swas intended to be for elite members of society and kings. Though today, it’s a simple and easy cake that anyone can make inside an hour!
    the Ingredients
    1 cup flour
    1 cup milk
    1tbsps yeast (or 1/3 cup sourdough starter)
    1 cup ricotta (or other soft white cheese)
    honey
    olive oil
    cinnamon
    Method

    Prepare Dough

    To begin with, we need to make a simple dough. Pour a cup of flour into a bowl, along with a tablespoon of yeast. Dry yeast wouldn’t have been available in antiquity, but wild yeast from a sourdough starter or from crushed grapes let to ferment in a cup for 3 days then strained would have been used, and a third of a cup can be used here.
    Pour in a cup of room-temperature milk on top of this, along with a splash of olive oil. The original recipe calls for “fat” which can be any one of a huge number of things – like butter, lard, or oils. But olive oil would have also been used. Mix everything together until it takes on a very runny texture. Add a little water if your dough is too dry.
    Cover this with a towel and leave it to raise over an hour or so in a warm area.
    Assemble Cake
    After an hour, go oil up a baking dish. Pour in a ladle ful of your dough, and spread it around the base.
    On top of this, place a few dollops of ricotta cheese. White cheese is specified here – which again could mean any one of a number of cheeses, but ricotta, or a soft feta,or cream cheese would work well here. Ladle in another layer of dough, before repeating the ricotta process. You can also add some honey between these layers. Though this wasn’t specified, it adds a nice kick of sweetness to the final dish.
    Repeat this layering process until you run out of cheese or dough, making sure the top of the cake is covered in a layer of dough.
    Place your cake into an oven preheated to 250° C /485° F or as high as your oven will go, and let this bake for a half an hour, rotating it halfway through so it cooks evenly.
    Finish Cake
    It should be done when the top of it is golden and firm. Pour some honey over the top of this while it’s cooling in the baking dish, and sprinkle some cinnamon over the honey. If you want, you could also use some freshly-ground black pepper which adds a nice warm background to the finished cake. now you can use pomegranate honey or

  13. Recession / Depression
    Looking forward by looking back – A thought.
    You have all seen the picture. A smiling Grandma leaning on her beloved hoe, in her floral print dress, standing in front of her backyard Victory Garden. The garden looks fantastic.
    That is how I look at my raised bed vegetable garden.
    I assume that nothing mechanical is going to work – fuel will become a precious unattainium liquid around here., and it will all be hand labor.
    I, however, have a much greater advantage then Grandma. I can buy, via the internet, enough seeds for dozens of vegetable gardens with the click of a mouse. With several seed-storage systems to organize and protect those seeds. I can obtain vegetable fertilizers, specific for any given vegetable, by the 10 pound bag full. [ stored in an air tight aluminum garbage can.] And fight off the hoards of ravaging insects with a safe, yet effective spray.
    I do not “need” a tiller – handy, but I can easily get along without one. There are only two of us., and any extra can be handed out to the neighbors. [ after the canning is complete.]
    One small “Lesson Learned”: I no longer plant full head lettuce. I plant “Little Gems”. One mature Little Gem can give enough lettuce for two, for a great salad – toss in all the other garden-fresh ingredients., and voila – successful gardening leads to successful dinners. I can grow three Little Gems in the space of one large head lettuce., and do that three times a season – then carry-on into Winter via the green house. A real space saver. Plant in a row – like this year., at one week harvest-intervals and you will have a great salad at every dinner, if you so choose. [ A long window box on the back deck works also.]
    Grandma didn’t have that option. I do. So can you.
    .., and wandering around my vegetable garden is a great mental therapy for me. Escapism.
    Being able to grow Japanese hybrid round, perfectly-purple eggplant the size of a softball, is fun to try. .., but you only need around twenty different vegetables – and that will keep you feed very well.
    I do wish that I had a couple of acres for wheat production [ love baking bread, pizza crusts, tortillas, etc.] but I have that covered with a local “Trade Partner”. And a great, 100 year old hand crank wheat grinder.
    So.., a recession, or a full-blown Depression – with no practical mechanical assistance for gardening.., is very, very doable.
    .
    As an experiment last year my Trade Partner and I harvested an acre of wheat by hand. We had talked about trying it and he bought two really nice long handle scythe from an Amish catalogue. They are very nice.
    We measured out a full acre [ roughly the size of football field. He started at one corner and I went to opposite corner. We cut, bundled and stack., and then his ten year old son came out with a large wheeled cart, being pulled by their floppy St Bernard and carefully loaded the bundles into the cart – heck of sight ! Took him a few trips, but he easily got it done.
    All the wheat was stacked next to the mechanical thresher before noon. About four hours, at an easy pace., with short breaks. [He was faster than me, twenty years younger.] Once you find your rhythm, it goes pretty smoothly. I figure we could have done it in half that time had we looked at it as job that needed to get done – now. A third of that time, if someone else did the bundling after we cut.
    But we did prove that two modern men, with no experience, can step-back into the 1800’s and easily do an acre of wheat before lunch. [ I gave the St Bernard part of my cheeseburger at the lunch barbeque.]
    Though I will admit that my shoulders ached the next day from slinging that heavy scythe. Not an exercise I was used too.

    • one of my summer projects was to make a thresher similar to the ones china used 5000 years ago.. been so busy I just haven’t had time..

    • I bought the scythe 20 years ago. I’m guessing ca. 1880s to about 1900s — well-used- sweat-stained, but still sharp with plenty of edge.

      What I don’t have is a thresher. I assume a cement mixer, washing machine, or pretty much anything which features a rotating drum can be made into one, and I’ve looked at a few “modern antique” threshers at various off-grid sites, but can’t seem to find that one perfect tool.

      • Oh let me show you..they are pretty simple ..

        https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0D1KNHZJ5/ref=sspa_dk_detail_4?

        Chinese had a wheeled broom that they would turn that would knock the grain off.. then the y had a bellows separator..I made a small one of those that works amazingly well.. I was glint to make a bigger one to but that to has been on hold..
        I did have an old push leaf broom that I was going to use as the threshing broom

        • I was thinking of a repurposed fan as a blower to separate the chaff. Kollege kids are always throwing out 12-20 inch blowers and box fans. The Chinese build them with 1/10hp motors wired with junk copper, so they crap out after a few months, but there’s nothing wrong with the blades or bearings. About 20 years ago I bought 20 junk bicycles for $20, simply so I’d have a supply of wheels, cranks, chainwheels, and chains — ‘pretty sure I could engineer a pedal-powered device or two, from the remaining parts…

  14. Investors are more confident than ever for a “soft landing”.
    – The core PPI increased 3.3% year-on-year.., and the stock markets are in full buy-mode.
    That is still over 1% higher that the official target rate set by The Fed of 2%. [“2% is not negotiable.” Powell.] Though unemployment is edging up, which will help.
    But expecting a 50 basis point cut in September for the interest rates is a little too optimistic.
    CPI due next and that will help give a little better picture.

    • Melania is beautiful, cultured, cosmopolitan and civilized.

      Kammy can only do one thing well enough.

    • ‘Thing is, the SKETCH of Cammy (which is the “Time” cover) bears little resemblance to reality. It is artwork, because she couldn’t be bothered to sit for a portrait.

      BTW, I have photos of Cammy in her 20s, back when she was climbing Willie’s pole. Brick shithouse material from the neck down. From the neck up, she was more horse-faced than she is today, and more Asian in appearance. The two looks don’t blend well…

  16. re: baby goose steps
    feat: “Mother Goose’s Melody”, 1784

    Folks,

    Launch the egg timer! The Ukrainian Presidential Press Service released photographs of yesterday’s meeting in the golden egg colored Presidential Palace between a black shirt clad President Zelensky and the US bipartisan congressional delegation consisting of Senators Graham and Blumenthal. Republican Senator Blumenthal, a staunch Trump supporter in the second half of 45’s Administration, has updated his website after the August 12th meeting for the benefit of interested Americans and others. Apparently Uncle Sam’s friends are interested in a “trillion dollars-worth of rare earth minerals” in the Ukraine. Also plans were reiterated for “Stand By Ukraine” legislation.

    https://www.blumenthal.senate.gov/newsroom/press/release/blumenthal-and-graham-on-visit-to-ukraine

    As an aside, interestingly the Battle of Kursk in July and August 1943 was allegedly the largest single battle in human history, and apparently marked the beginning of the end for the nazi eastern front. One imagines President Putin will construct a patriotic field day from current events.

    • Blumenthal is a “never Trumper” Democrat. It is Republican Graham who became a Trump supporter during the second half of Trump’s term, and he’s a duplicitous SOB. The only thing these two have in common is they’re both “war-hawks.” BTW, Graham is also very interested in the, reportedly ~$12 trillion in petroleum reserves that’re located in, or about the Dnieper-Donets Basin.

      Ukraine has a significant, but not important, amount of elemental lithium ores. Ukraine’s truly important ores are titanium and iron. Ukrainian Iron makes very high quality steel with little refinement to remove impurities, necessary.

      Ukraine is very rich in titanium. The United States has almost no known titanium ore. Accordingly, we buy virtually all our titanium from Ukraine, Russia, and China…

      • Oh they got one moar thing in common there Raymondo, and that would be wittle BOYS..

        Just ask mcSTAIN, oh wait he be Dead..thank Goodness.

  17. George, thank you for your quarter century of service!

    You obviously need time to enjoy your life too. I do hope that comments will be available directly on the Peoplenomics columns. It was a great idea to create the comment area, though I’m sure moderation is a chore.

    Without STS, hopefully the various DIY subjects will get distributed(and commented on) with the regular Peoplenomics columns. A good search function across the archives would be much appreciated too. Perhaps there is one already. Since many/most readers here are in the second half of life with overly seasoned eyes, we’d appreciate columns that are easily displayed on normal PC’s along with the various mobile devices. Not an easy task, I know, but much appreciated.

    • As you remember, Mr. B, I am a synthesizer. IoW I like to combine best of class of everything. Last night I made a sweet pork curry that was amazing – had never married pork and curry, for example.
      Point is (and Clif put this best in his Pirates episode today – ) we are coming in the period of Discontinuity.
      The answer for getting through is not likely to be media that are excessive “specialized” – and so while Peoplenomics chartpack has great value for people trying to understand simple Money, the roll of Peoplenomics is likely to shift in an direction that will be more appropriate to the coming transition into “scifi world” which will involve a massive change in energy and all that (go listen to Clif’s stuff and say some prayers for his wife, Kathy who we understand is having serious health issues.)

      Therefore, what I sense is that Peoplenomics will become less financially focused (as will befit the collapse of the paper/fiat mess) and will “get back to basics” like we are doing around here in terms of gardening and so forth. Small unit housing, local water harvesting.

      To do this, we may set up “areas” within Peoplenomics (*rather than the too dense indexes now) to make past writings more accessible. And encourage more self-reporting/sharing and community articles.

      I think we have a good bead on whats coming – but the trick will be to live long enough to enjoy what will amount of Founders Equity.

      Make sense?

      • If you drop the charts – I will personally come down there and bitch-slap every feral cat I can find and then tell Elaine that you did it !

  18. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO – has formed in the eastern Caribbean.
    – However, it is forecast to turn northward into the Atlantic and not impact the Caribbean or the U.S.
    – Bermuda may see the largest impact as the storm forecast shows it heading right over the Island later this week.
    – Ernesto may form into a hurricane before hitting Bermuda.

  19. Put your ‘thinking cap’ on., pour another cuppa., and let’s dive in………………

    USB Global Finance, Board of Directors: “Nearly every sector in the U.S. economy is showing deflation., and those that aren’t, are showing signs entering it.”

    What Is Deflation?
    Deflation is a general decline in prices for goods and services, typically associated with a contraction in the supply of money and credit in the economy. During deflation, the purchasing power of currency rises over time.
    – Deflation is the general decline in the price level of goods and services.
    – It is usually associated with a contraction in the supply of money and credit, but prices can also fall due to increased productivity and technological improvements. All of which are happening ‘right now’.

    Deflation has been a popular concern among economists for decades. It can only be caused by a decrease in the supply of money or financial instruments redeemable in money. [ Which is happening ‘right now’.]

    Periods of deflation most commonly occur after long periods of artificial monetary expansion. [ Which has been going on for over a decade.] The early 1930s was the last time significant deflation was experienced in the United States. The major contributor to this deflationary period was the fall in the money supply. [ M2 Money Supply has fallen 3 percent in the last two years.] ., and the U.S. went into a depression.

    Economist Irving Fisher developed an entire theory for economic depressions based on debt deflation. Fisher argued that the liquidation of debts after a negative economic shock can induce a larger reduction in the supply of credit in the economy, which can lead to deflation, which in turn puts even more pressure on debtors, leading to even more liquidations, raising unemployment numbers and spiraling into a depression.

    Who Is Harmed by Deflation?
    Debtors are particularly hurt by deflation, because even as prices for goods and services fall, the value of their debt does not. This can impact individuals, [ today’s consumers have reached the highest level of personal debt in history.] as well as larger economies, including countries with high national debt.[ Which is by far the highest we have ever seen.]

    While deflation may seem like a good thing, it can signal an impending recession and hard economic times. When people feel prices are headed down, they delay purchases in the hopes that they can buy things for less at a later date. But lower overall consumer spending leads to less income for producers, who cut production, which can lead to higher unemployment and higher interest rates. Now forcing the consumer to spend even less.

    This negative feedback loop generates higher unemployment, even lower prices and even less spending. In short, deflation leads to more deflation. Throughout most of U.S. history, periods of deflation usually go hand in hand with severe economic downturns and leading into a recession and hurdled into a depression.

    Consequences of Deflation
    Deflation can ripple through the economy, cause high unemployment, and catapult a recession into a depression. When companies are unable to sell products and revenue decreases, debt increases and they cut costs, rapidly. This will include closing stores, plants, and warehouses, and laying off workers. Workers will decrease spending, leading to less demand and more deflation. This “deflationary spiral” that is very hard to break.

    Opposing View
    Pigou Effect – Developed as an opposing view to everyone else’s dread of a deflationary economy. Many economists jumped on board that ‘Happy Wagon’. Became very popular. Until it wasn’t.
    The Pigou effect was coined by Arthur Cecil Pigou in 1943.., and it is a false theory., that a deflationary cycle is basically good for an economy. His views were put to the test more recently in Japan in the 1980’s – and it did not work, and Japan has paid the price, dearly.
    He never envisioned the incredible levels of individual consumer debt., corporate debt-gamesmanship and government’s crushing debt. That thought never occurred to any of those who followed his theory. [ Very few now believe his teachings.]

    • I just visited with a young lady today..her monthly rent is 2 grand.. plus all the utilities taxes and insurance she makes 17 an hour and works at a bar for ten and tips..
      it’s unsustainable prices have got to go down..taking the grandson into an appointment..we passed several companies no car traffic at all..
      companies are hurting big time..
      my wife’s company isn’t making it she retires full time end of October..they are begging her to stay she makes 14 an hour part time 2 days a month nurse..
      micky Dee’s got rid of counter staff it’s basically an on demand vending machine..you go to a kiosk place your order and pay they make it..

    • two of the girls sell insurance policies … both of them are terrified that people will cut back insurance..since I have all the cars insured I am considering dropping some off..it would save us 400 a month and with utilities on the increase and we are on set income we have to watch our spending big time..a young couple with three kids had to move out of low income housing..rent went above their income the whole family is living on a camper on the back of an old pickup truck..a friend of mine was offered cash for his house he is planning to move into a camper.. taxes are increasing to the point he cannot afford it on retirement money..
      it’s going to get interesting for sure

  20. The Northern California DX Foundation,
    https://www.ncdxf.org/pages/beacons.html
    maintains a group (18) of globally dispersed
    DX Beacon transmitters. When conditions are
    right, from several to many can be heard.

    The minute-by-minute schedule is too complex
    to reproduce here, but a litte poking around
    at their link will get you tons of usuful data.
    They’re on every “DX” band from 20 to 10 meters.

    Even so: a point needs making.

    Each transmittion on each frequency follows
    a common pattern, CW ID at 100 watts, a
    “long dash” follows at 100 watts, another at
    10 watts, another at 1 watt, and the final long
    dash is sent at one-tenth watt. ONE TENTH!
    100 MILLIWATTS! ONLY!

    Most of the time, if you can hear ANY of the
    stations, you’ll hear ALL of its long dashes.
    Amazingly, even the tenth watt one.

    So, on G’s little radio lnked, in the column,
    24 watts of outout is NOT uselessly QRP.

    My main rig is an ICOM IC-718, not a big
    powerhouse — nominally a “100 watter.”
    https://www.rigpix.com/icom/ic718.htm
    it gets me through the night, just fine.
    ..and that’s 100 watts Peak Envelope Power,
    …the running average during a transmission
    runs somewhere just north of 25 watts, if
    measured continuously and averaged. So,
    don’t dismiss a 24 watter as too weak for
    serious work.

    Try the beacons, and you’ll be a believer.

    I plan to get one as finances allow.

    • Since my one son got my Yaesu 857D I am shy a small radio for my camper .. the one mentioned by George looks like the perfect one to fit the bill and for my purposes 24 watts is fine.
      (btw … there is a way to wire the power cord going into the 857 and 897 that automatically reduces those rigs from 100 watts to 20 watts transmit power even before you play with the drive, which if you are running off battery power can be important)

      • On my Yaesu 757 back in the sailing days, there were 2 + leads on a Jones plug for power.
        Wire one and it was a 15-watt radio – wire both and the LPA (linear power amplifier for those not into electrical arcana_) comes online…

  21. Speaking of Nukes. Seems there may have been developed some with no nuclear fallout.
    https://vimeo.com/991817568/5a7e9ae1a6
    Dark Journalist & Joseph Farrell.
    Berkner’s Nuclear Secret
    Unfortunately, it’s membership only watch.

    THE BREAKTHROUGH DISCOVERY!
    Please join us as Dark Journalist Daniel Liszt goes deep with Dr. Joseph Farrell on his latest discovery of an obscure Nuclear program called Rippple and how it connects to DJ’s research into Dr. Lloyd Berkner and the undelivered speech that JFK was going to give at the Trademart about Space Technology and the UFO File.

    Dr. Farrell explores the possibility that the Ripple program which was only partially declassified in 2021, may be a major key to breakthrough energy and calls into question the entire standoff over nuclear superiority since it was developed to permit no nuclear fallout. Farrell speculates that DJ’s emphasis on Dr. Lloyd Berkner’s presence at the final speech and the anticipated ceremony of the White House Flag being handed to him was to announce the breakthrough nuclear technology and its connection to Space operation. DJ also offers that it was going to lead directly to the UFO File revelation and joint Space Program with the Russians which was total anathema to the Deep State Paperclip element that had penetrated NASA.,

    Anyone hear anything about this? If true, who has the ‘clean’ nukes and who has the dirty ones?

    (‘Penetrated’? these men and their families were brought over here as spoils of war for their knowledge and expertise. Who could refuse if this saved the lives of one’s family?)
    C

  25. As for the coolerado.. air conditioning system you could make an ancient mitti ka … some places would build with two brick walls sand in the middle then keep the sand moist the evaporating water through the outer wall would cool the inner wall..

  26. I look forward to seeing Ure improved PN site.
    With G2 moving back. I expect you will be busy lending moral support to his building project.
    Pet building peeves (and failures) for G2 to ponder:
    OSB costs somewhere between 4x and 10x what I was paying for it when I built my little home. It would pay to cut and mill as much lumber as you can out of the tree farm. It is possible to use 2-by’s instead of sheathing on the roof, at least theoretically. 1-by’s will work for wall sheathing, with diagnols on corner sections. A lesson I learned demolishing buildings from my Grandfather’s era- use the best fasteners and more of them than the code requires. Maze ring shank nails, corrosion resistant screws and Simpson straps are a good investment.
    Timbor is still available for treating the roughed-in building for insects. About 25 lbs for every 1000 sq ft is a good starting estimate. Hose the entire interior and exterior structure and sheathing with an ag sprayer, preferably before you put in insulation, windows or sheetrock. If you have the windows in, tape’em; otherwise, you have to razor them afterward (voice of experience). Using aluminum angle along the bottom plate screwed in up against the sheathing will help keep insects and vermin out of the house. Put a line of boric acid along the bottom plate before you seal up the walls.
    For insulation stay with fiberglass for DIY. I like the high temperature batts I see online. If you put batts in the attic, you can come back and have no-itch loose fill spread over it, when you have the cash.
    If I had it to do again, I would have double studded instead of using 6″ studs to increase the wall insulation cavity. Likewise, I would have found a way to increase the depth of the attic insulation. I’ve toyed with ideas of using balloon studs to give a couple of extra feet for insulation, but don’t have anything workable to recommend. In Ure climate, put in a cool roof. Use overhangs to control summer sun in the windows. No windows on the West side.
    While my electric bill runs less than $150 in hottest and coldest months, the house is still almost uninhabitable without AC in the mid-summer. You might want to think about a screened sleeping porch on the North side. It doesn’t have to be large.
    Don’t put solar panels on the roof. If you intend to do solar, build a dedicated detached solar equipment shelter. Plan your electrical panels to accommodate solar. If I had it to do over again, I would have put solar candidate loads on a separate subpanel with a transfer switch.
    Don’t put a water heater or water lines in the attic, and don’t run water lines in the outside walls. I put in a central utility chase where all the water lines are located and insulated.
    Don’t overbuild. Keep it small (but not tiny).
    Good luck on your project.

    • Living up north it always has amazed me that in the South they run plumbing and put water heaters in the attic and plumbing in outside walls. My thoughts are is that all it takes is one good freeze and you will have water water everywhere!! LOL

      • Here in northeast TX we have had below zero temps, but usually only for one or two nights. Not a big issue for plumbing in outside walls. In 2001 we had several days below zero, but keeping water dripping on outside wall faucets kept them from freezing. I’ve heard of quite a few folks who had trouble with plumbing in the attic. Not a good idea in my opinion, not even here in the south.

        • Plumbing run inside the insulation is less an issue than pipe next to the outside sheathing. Best to avoid either.

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