If you listen closely, you may be able to hear them. Lamestream media has used a fairly ‘light dose’ of Smoot-Hawley being replayed in Trade Wars. But, there are other – more subtle – things to be watching now.
Because, you see, it’s not just important to understand the generalized risk of a Second
Depression. It’s also important to “get the timing right.” Too early and you can lose a pile of dough. Too late, though, and that’s just as bad.
Leaves us with the “Thinking Person’s” task: Are we on a Replay of 1929? And if so, were exactly are we?
We won’t get it all right. But at least we will have a closer eye on the development storm than the Johnny-come-latelies who will be along shortly.
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And … everybody has again run to the other side of the boat (OBSCON). Have they quick migrated as a herd -or- been herd(ed) there – or- both? Kids are going full FOMO / YOLO mode buying enormous amounts of Index -0- DTE _levered_ plays (then getting taught about Market Makers gunning stops). May we live in interesting times. We do.
George, from the subscriber side:
“… often experience heightened volatility during periods of liquidity shifts, such as settlement days, due to rebalancing or cash flow adjustments …”
The PTB prefer to make big moves offline, in strict confidence. Periodic large plays are underway mainly in currencies and debt securities, including to make good delivery as required. The resultant moves in crypto and metals are largely derivatives to those big plays. Unless a periodic marker causes M2M. Nah.
I am still in “stay sedate” mode after a procedure yesterday. The list(s) of things I’d like to do are just that. Lists. For now. Instead I’m out walking the pier (it’s as if we just added 500 sf of outdoor deck. Turtles are looking for sun spots to soak warmth. But, it’s going to rain. Again.
An Osprey is harvesting fish every 10-15 minutes. Bet in between a catch is being delivered to a partner on the nest. Yesterday I saw the odd annual visitor, a Golden Eagle. He had a dogfight with one of the resident adult Bald Eagles, then swooped along the shoreline hunting. Moments later he flew back along the tree line burdened by a large rodent. Easter Bunny?
ATL: though amused by all the birds, perhaps later in life, when I grow up, it will be time to study Ornithology. Probably not. I’m only interested in the local waterfowl. For the record, being good neighbors, we are processing transient Canadian Geese travel docs and landing rights. The smells and sounds of spring include gooses.
Be careful out there (Hill Street Blues, back when Cop shows fit the narrative).
I am rich so wrote,
Egor
Like pappy said “If you still have to count paper, you’re not rich.” Well played pond yachtie
My group of college buddies, class of ‘64, has dwindled to 3. One of them, a fellow research chemist, I continue to dialogue with and respect his wisdom. We share news items on health and longevity, much of it around the work George is doing.
A few days ago, he saw an article stating that “new” evidence showed stress to be a cancer risk. I think his reply to the article is worth posting here. It reminded me that that human health is very complex. We can make changes we think will improve our health but never are in complete control.
………………….
“My reaction about “new.”
“A brief story: also many decades ago, my first wife — very fit with no known history of cancer in her family and an “all things in moderation” health food enthusiast even back then — had her first, only, and fatally final encounter with cancer. That single encounter lasted a few short years.
Those days seem, in many ways, as if they were just one or two yesterdays ago; but in fact: many yesteryears have disappeared forever over that particular now-distant horizon.
At the time, It seemed that just about everyone under the Sun — whether general practitioner or cancer specialist, nurse or dietician, outdoor adventurer or yoga trainer, close friend or well-meaning fellow patient, had similar advice about stress.
Back then, both of us knew about Hans Selye’s notions of eustress and distress, and how those ideas seemed to make a lot of intuitive sense. Mostly they still do, IMHO.
But (and not to put too fine a point on it): we were a bit stressed, as well as mildly bemused at the same time, by all the stress advice that was so freely given — at least, until not a long time before it really was too late.
We both laughed at the rather obvious impressions that much of that advice, so kind and well-intentioned for the most part, sounded a lot like the admonition: “Be spontaneous — now!!!”
Many years after that shared laughter was long gone, I became somewhat knowledgeable about cancer stem cell genetics — especially how it can be that so many interrelated dynamical factors are involved (or sometimes not involved, or are not even known!) in vast complex adaptive system networks of networks — ecologies, actually — that we are still working to understand but turn out to be capable of doing things like switching stem cell genes on and off following what appear to be perturbations mappable as mathematised movements between and among “strange attractors” — and that such moves are reflected in vast (and still vastly unknown) flows and cascades of genetic and other materials, energy, and information — all interacting dynamically in direct, indirect, subtle and unknown ways — some of which result in cancers (and other diseases, too) every time, some of the time, not much of the time, and at other times: nothing at all (at least that we know of … yet).
So — where does “stress” of any kind fit into such health-related dynamical complex adaptive systems of systems? Well, you see, it depends … “
Sage advice. My advice? “Don’t sweat the small stuff.”
“sigh of relief from the Deep State as Musk”
Personality shouldn’t matter unless DOGE was a marketing gimmick to get votes. Like Amy Coney Barrett joining the three liberals in dissent of mass deportations. Everyone knew she was a turncoat.