The Footsteps of 1929

by

If you listen closely, you may be able to hear them.  Lamestream media has used a fairly ‘light dose’ of Smoot-Hawley being replayed in Trade Wars.  But, there are other – more subtle – things to be watching now.

Because, you see, it’s not just important to understand the generalized risk of a Second
Depression.  It’s also important to “get the timing right.”  Too early and you can lose a pile of dough.  Too late, though, and that’s just as bad.

Leaves us with the “Thinking Person’s” task:  Are we on a Replay of 1929?  And if so, were exactly are we?

We won’t get it all right.  But at least we will have a closer eye on the development storm than the Johnny-come-latelies who will be along shortly.

More for Subscribers ||| Master Index 2018 to Present ||| Master Index 2001 thru 2017 ||| Missing out? SUBSCRIBE NOW!!! |||

48 thoughts on “The Footsteps of 1929”

  1. And … everybody has again run to the other side of the boat (OBSCON). Have they quick migrated as a herd -or- been herd(ed) there – or- both? Kids are going full FOMO / YOLO mode buying enormous amounts of Index -0- DTE _levered_ plays (then getting taught about Market Makers gunning stops). May we live in interesting times. We do.

    George, from the subscriber side:

    “… often experience heightened volatility during periods of liquidity shifts, such as settlement days, due to rebalancing or cash flow adjustments …”

    The PTB prefer to make big moves offline, in strict confidence. Periodic large plays are underway mainly in currencies and debt securities, including to make good delivery as required. The resultant moves in crypto and metals are largely derivatives to those big plays. Unless a periodic marker causes M2M. Nah.

    I am still in “stay sedate” mode after a procedure yesterday. The list(s) of things I’d like to do are just that. Lists. For now. Instead I’m out walking the pier (it’s as if we just added 500 sf of outdoor deck. Turtles are looking for sun spots to soak warmth. But, it’s going to rain. Again.

    An Osprey is harvesting fish every 10-15 minutes. Bet in between a catch is being delivered to a partner on the nest. Yesterday I saw the odd annual visitor, a Golden Eagle. He had a dogfight with one of the resident adult Bald Eagles, then swooped along the shoreline hunting. Moments later he flew back along the tree line burdened by a large rodent. Easter Bunny?

    ATL: though amused by all the birds, perhaps later in life, when I grow up, it will be time to study Ornithology. Probably not. I’m only interested in the local waterfowl. For the record, being good neighbors, we are processing transient Canadian Geese travel docs and landing rights. The smells and sounds of spring include gooses.

    Be careful out there (Hill Street Blues, back when Cop shows fit the narrative).

    I am rich so wrote,
    Egor

      • A post from the distant future, captured and reprised here for Ure edification.

        “If you still have to count satoshi’s, Ure not rich”

        Beam me up Scotty, get me outta here, I can see da Fork coming, so EXIT, stage Right even

    • As you process those Canadian Geese travel docs and allow them landing rights be sure to inform them that once they get back to Canada that they should stay there. True Canadian is being quietly pressured to remain in Canada … or go directly, non-stop, to Cuba if they wish to leave the cold Canadian winters.

      Maybe placing several signs out in the lake later this summer “No Canadians allowed to land here” would be helpful?

      • Someone told me that Donald was going to change the Canada Geese name to American Geese. They would love it so much there that they would never want to migrate back to Canada.

        Here’s hoping.

        • Naw…

          Truth is, Trump saw “Patton” one too many times. He’s going to change their name all right, but he’s changing it from “Canada” to “Crapthrougha”

        • Since you guys are taking over our national bird, there are a couple of things you should know.

          1. They poop 1 kg a day. That’s 2.2 pounds American.

          2. Their favourite food is asparagoose.

          Be warned.

        • “Since you guys are taking over our national bird, there are a couple of things you should know.”

          Definitely not taking over.

          God has a sense of humor…

          My nearest town had a huge pigeon problem. We had thousands of them, crapping up every building and sidewalk in the area. People’s cars would turn purple during mulberry season. At times, you could not fill your windshield washer reservoir often enough to ensure vision while driving. After trying to shoot, poison, and scare them away, they brought in 3 pairs of hawks from some college’s ornithology department. A few years later, the hawks numbered several dozen and the pigeons (and doves) had ceased to exist. With the pigeons gone, the hawks started in on the packrat problem.

          Along about this time, God put the local reservoir on the honkers’ radar, to help fill the void. We now have many thousands of Canada Geese as permanent area residents. AFAIK they’re not crapping up the downtown area, but the ponds, lakes, and rivers are not usable for human recreation.

          Oh, and we still have a mulberry season…

  2. My group of college buddies, class of ‘64, has dwindled to 3. One of them, a fellow research chemist, I continue to dialogue with and respect his wisdom. We share news items on health and longevity, much of it around the work George is doing.

    A few days ago, he saw an article stating that “new” evidence showed stress to be a cancer risk. I think his reply to the article is worth posting here. It reminded me that that human health is very complex. We can make changes we think will improve our health but never are in complete control.

    ………………….

    “My reaction about “new.”

    “A brief story: also many decades ago, my first wife — very fit with no known history of cancer in her family and an “all things in moderation” health food enthusiast even back then — had her first, only, and fatally final encounter with cancer. That single encounter lasted a few short years.

    Those days seem, in many ways, as if they were just one or two yesterdays ago; but in fact: many yesteryears have disappeared forever over that particular now-distant horizon.

    At the time, It seemed that just about everyone under the Sun — whether general practitioner or cancer specialist, nurse or dietician, outdoor adventurer or yoga trainer, close friend or well-meaning fellow patient, had similar advice about stress.

    Back then, both of us knew about Hans Selye’s notions of eustress and distress, and how those ideas seemed to make a lot of intuitive sense. Mostly they still do, IMHO.

    But (and not to put too fine a point on it): we were a bit stressed, as well as mildly bemused at the same time, by all the stress advice that was so freely given — at least, until not a long time before it really was too late.

    We both laughed at the rather obvious impressions that much of that advice, so kind and well-intentioned for the most part, sounded a lot like the admonition: “Be spontaneous — now!!!”

    Many years after that shared laughter was long gone, I became somewhat knowledgeable about cancer stem cell genetics — especially how it can be that so many interrelated dynamical factors are involved (or sometimes not involved, or are not even known!) in vast complex adaptive system networks of networks — ecologies, actually — that we are still working to understand but turn out to be capable of doing things like switching stem cell genes on and off following what appear to be perturbations mappable as mathematised movements between and among “strange attractors” — and that such moves are reflected in vast (and still vastly unknown) flows and cascades of genetic and other materials, energy, and information — all interacting dynamically in direct, indirect, subtle and unknown ways — some of which result in cancers (and other diseases, too) every time, some of the time, not much of the time, and at other times: nothing at all (at least that we know of … yet).

    So — where does “stress” of any kind fit into such health-related dynamical complex adaptive systems of systems? Well, you see, it depends … “

      • “Pay attention to the ‘Small-stuff’ and the ‘Big-stuff’ will take care of themselves.”

    • Cancer is different from other diseases in that today there are so many more NEW environmental issues that seem to encourage it’s development and growth.

      With that said though I do agree on stress and cancer. I have seen that dynamic happen a number of times in life with people who come from a good set of genes (NO family history), a good diet, in reasonably good shape, who suddenly get hit by massive stress … and voila within a short period of time killer cancer appears.

      This dynamic was most notable for me in seeing it among people who had little real stress in their life up to that point in time, ie: led mostly charmed lives, until some sudden stress appeared – a stress dynamic that for someone who had to deal with a LOT of serious problems in life wouldn’t have even been phased about. but for them was unexpected and unimaginable.

      Extreme sudden stress is also for some a Heart Attack inducer. One of course has to already be “primed” to have heart attack, but if one is already primed stress can be the straw that finally breaks the camel’s back.

      I look at both of those things as sorta like being “Barbarians at the Gate”.

      Barbarians are ALWAYS at the gate (outside your body trying to get in) but as you get older, or you haven’t taken care of yourself, your defenses keep getting weaker and weaker so it is easier for the Barbarians to get in and start causing havoc. Simply said the Barbarians are always there but until something triggers a reduction in your defenses your body can generally hold them bay (as long as you have good genetics)

      So sorry to hear about your first wife and her cancer. Hopefully the memories of your time with her creates a warmth in your heart as you remember those times from long ago.

    • I was reading today about young people, 20-30 years old , getting colon cancer. They said it’s caused by ecoli. Raw milk , fresh vegetables , rare meat , a couple of other things. Funny thing is I grew up eating and drinking these things. Sounds like they couldn’t think of anything else to write about.

  3. “sigh of relief from the Deep State as Musk”

    Personality shouldn’t matter unless DOGE was a marketing gimmick to get votes. Like Amy Coney Barrett joining the three liberals in dissent of mass deportations. Everyone knew she was a turncoat.

    • i’m still shocked that every person on the planet doesn’t agree that every person deserves some sort of due process before being sent to prison. it doesn’t matter where you live or what the government is. Freedom is as basic a human right as there is. no government is authorized to strip anyone of their freedom without some sort of due process oversight. we’re born with these fundamental human rights. government gives us nothing.

      and now someone is a “turncoat” for preserving the most basic of human rights. be careful what you wish for. you or someone you love could be next.

      • Most of us are “two way street types.” If you camein legally, then sure, a hearing makes sense. But if you sneak in? Going out the same way buddy

        • Mark wouldnt be saying this if the migrants voted for Conservatives. He is trying to preserve his only shot at his party winning another election.

        • Dave thinks Truth is the reincarnation of Mark, but Mark is an anti-Trump Republican. I was thinking more along the lines of Mike, Ure previously most annoying leftist troll.

        • “…every person deserves some sort of due process before being sent to prison.” y’all conveniently ignored the “prison” part of my comment.

          people are in prison who haven’t even been charged with anything. people are in prison for what seems to be offending the administration’s favored speech beliefs.

          so defend sending people to prison without charge or conviction.

        • liddle truth worries to much about a boder jumper , not a citizen, but is a member of MS13 and beats his wife, and trafficks humans.,,, read THIS STORY, about not living quietly
          https://www.zerohedge.com/political/npr-abrego-garcia-was-living-quietly-maryland-he-was-deported

          liddle truth does not talk about children being stolen by government and given to him , probaly gets paid to boot.
          6 min video in link,,,

          “86% of the 800,000 children trafficked in the United States alone every year come directly from Child Protective Services.
          they do it LEGALLY and WITH YOUR PERMISSION!
          each state has their own agency with different names and acronyms – but NONE ARE GOVERNMENT.
          WATCH: ?? this is how they do it and this is how you can avoid it.
          share this with anyone having issues with this agency.
          RIP, David Straight”
          https://x.com/TheRubberDuck79/status/1914893314811117747

          liddle truth admits to being a foster parent,,, that stretches the meaning of ‘parent’, when ya put foster with it,,
          with each post he supports the dark side, I wonder why,,, debase the general population down to his level, to make his self seem normal ?

          Not saying all fosters are bad, but the corruption is present and children are abused

          keeping a light on,,, Motel 6
          Sesame Street: Ernie and his Rubber Duckie
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh85R-S-dh8

        • Truth conveniently left out the part where model non citizen GARCIA was pulled over in Tennessee with 9 illegals in his van. Tennessee state trooper was told by Bumble Joe’s FBI to release them all. Certainly not equality because if you or I did the same, well we’d be in PRISON.

          DEVIL is always in the details.
          Do better Truth, this group here isn’t as stupid as you’d hope.

          PS:.Ditch all your links to MSM outlets here as they’ve been outed as deep state tools long ago.

      • George is right. Entering the country unlawfully makes one an ‘Illegal Alien’, and that is an ‘actionable offense’. No hearing needed. It is prima facie evidence. And we are a country of laws… right? (or maybe not in your mind).

      • And I’m still shocked that you believe every person on the planet has the inherent ‘right’ to invade our country, our borders, our culture, our heritage, claim our benefits, and ignore our laws. Please.. move to Sweden for some first-hand experience how that is working out for them.

        • “What is Democratic ‘Legality’?”

          “Those who weaponized the court system and destroyed the border now rail that Trump is acting unlawfully by not returning an illegal alien, an M-13 member, and a domestic abuser with a propensity to ignore our laws.
          …
          Democrats do not own El Salvador – although they act like it when dictating to its government that El Salvador cannot detain one of its own citizens on its own soil for its own reasons.”

          https://www.zerohedge.com/political/what-democratic-legality

          So the ‘TRUTH’ is that your beloved gang member will get his own hearing in his own country by his own government. QED

  4. “My advice? “Don’t sweat the small stuff.”

    Or, as was popular in my day, “Don’t sweat the petty stuff, and don’t pet the sweaty stuff.”

  5. G,

    This may be something worth toying with:

    Flux Capacitor

    Want to escape academic bureaucracy to pursue great science? If so, Flux capacitor is for you. Applications are due on May 11th at 11:59pm Pacific.

    We start with a $100K investment in your research (through a C corp) and follow on with $1M+ investment if you’re taking us Back to the Future!

    To learn more about Flux, read here: https://1517.substack.com/p/1517-garage-science-flux-capacitor

    We plan to announce and start the cohort in early June. Apply today!

    https://1517.smapply.us/prog/flux_capacitor/?mc_cid=afaf5c4fff&mc_eid=5c3c7d7f2e

    https://www.1517fund.com/

    • OoWS,

      I just saw your question from the other day.

      “Which Black Sabbath tune is your favorite?”

      I don’t think I really have a favorite, but if I had to pick one, it would be
      “Into The Void.”

    • Interesting read. Thanks.
      .
      I agree with what he has to say and most of his numbers. But the Dow hitting 5,000 ! Yikes. That is bit more than a “down turn”., that’s a 34,000 point drop. “Depression” won’t be the word to describe what that will cause. ‘Ele’ might be more like it.
      .
      I have heard of him before – didn’t know was quite so Bear-ish, though. Like I said; – ‘interesting read’.

      • Nenner has a $2180.- 5400 /yr service, with a 30 day free trial, if’n you want to dig into it further. You would probably get more out of his numbers than me.
        I’m kinda watching to see what the tide washes in for the time being. Depressions generally go hand in hand with runaway credit deflation, which usually ends in all debtors and creditors being SOL, and margin investors finding another line of work, like hawking apples on street corners. A Dow hitting 5000 would be consistent with all margin trading running down the pants legs and into the expensive shoes of people trading with OPM (Other People’s Money). Without margin buying, futures trading and derivative instruments to artificially inflate the equities, realistic yield performance pricing discovery might take hold again. Not a bullish sentiment.

    • So.., we enter a steady and strong ‘down-turn’ [ GDP / Wages / Unemployment ] by the end of Summer and it accelerates in late Fall and into Winter. GDP drops [ credit crunch rears it’s ugly head.] and we enter a Recession. [ Possible – wars start.] The markets start to crash., and then they do crash, severely and by late Spring of next year we are in a full-blown Depression.
      – Synopsis of Charles Nenner article / predictions. 4/22/25

      [ If the markets do crash at this prediction level and there is a global, or semi-global war – there will be no supply chains – exacerbating the Depression.]

      The last time the Dow Jones was at 5,000 was November 1995. Currently the Dow is at 39,800. That would be a drop of over 34,000 points. [ The Ten Year Bond was at 6.92% – currently at 4.21% ] However, If I remember correctly there is / was an Elliott Wave guru who also predicts the Dow is going to 5,000.

      • My “WAR” with China, which was what my long term model from long ago showed, is still hanging out there. The Window for it to start per history is now OPEN.

        2025-2027 is the middle period in that War Window for events to start … though I personally thought the initial phases of the direct conflict would begin in the earlier part of the window, which they did not (unless the engineered disease of Covid 19 was the early stage of the conflict). Now that we have entered the middle of that War Window one can easily see the emotions on both sides ramping up and ramping up very quickly.

        For a MAJOR War to begin history shows that the emotions of the masses MUST already have already climbed to a high level, otherwise there is not enough emotional energy there to support a country going into such a TOTAL conflict. Ideally both of the major conflict countries have had the same type of emotional ramp up, but history also shows that is not necessary as long as the country that is being the aggressor in the conflict has reached a high state of Emotional Excitement.

        Hopefully my War model fails … but history shows that of the last 10 times it’s set up dynamics have occurred a major War has resulted 10 times.

  7. Trump and two weeks… outcome?
    1) Dow down a bit, all cash
    2) banks not really solvent but have cash.
    3) Dollar weak
    4) China as bad off as USA with EMP bombs from Russia with love.
    5) NYC Trump not to be messed with
    6) Iran laughs.
    7) Europe in straights… eastern (Trump wife?) has loans to western and if Russia comes no loans. Ukraine Ukraine…
    8) US crymea… gone… Europe.. mad but Trump upsetting markets not so good for China and investments.
    9) Africa (trump wife)..maybe some funds. for woman
    10) Calif… broken…gone sold 1/2 cost see Musk; East west usa thing

  8. Toyota deal:

    I think the real deal wrt Tesla and Toyota is that Toyota is very far along on it’s new Solid State Battery which will store 2x to 3x as much power as the best of the current batteries AND can be recharged 5 to 10 times faster. (Toyota is saying a 750 to 1000+ mile vehicle range with that new battery)

    That NEW battery under development by Toyota is a huge leap past what Tesla currently has, and apparently beyond what Tesla has in the pipeline, so particularly for Tesla’s Commercial Power Sales (ie: utility grid applications) which are quickly becoming a bigger and bigger part of Tesla’s sales the ability to have an agreement with Toyota for the utilization of thar new battery technology may be critical for Tesla’s future growth in the Commercial Power Grid arena. (some estimates put Tesla’s Grid Power Storage business over the next 5 years becoming as big or bigger than it’s auto business … so obtaining Toyota’s new battery technology may be critical for Tesla continuing to grow that fast growing part of it’s business)

    • Sounds like the solid state batteries currently have the potential to be a magnet to electrified investors. I want a bicycle with one.

    • Tesla and Toyota have been in a technical partnership since before Tesla ever produced a car. It is only natural it would eventually graduate to a strategic &or business partnership…

  9. Folks,
    My understanding is that Facebook stands firm outlawing their news content from Canada readers. Long may that continue. Interestingly one of their stock-in-trade fake posts crossed my screen today.

    An inferred brand new Boeing 737 “FlightRadar” screenshot pictured the jet, N230BE, making its way between Boeing’s Chinese assembly factory to Boeing Seattle. The FB post remarked that the plane is returning to the USA because of American tariffs.

    However the plane is not new, but rather a 6 year old B737-800 most recently in service with Shandong Airlines, majority owned by Air China. According to “Wikipedia”, Shandong announced a planned retirement of their aging 800 series planes back in 2022.

    Perhaps of separate appeal to fan flames of truth would be that the Shandong region is apparently site of one of the largest land earthquakes in recorded history. The Great Tancheng (tr. frank/plain dealing) Earthquake of July 25, 1668 is assigned a magnitude of 8.5.

  10. Some comments:

    1. From Dad born in 1930. Ate peas/carrots/corn for breakfast/lunch/dinner. Popped corn for a treat.

    2. Had garden, had fruit trees.

    3. 3 generations living in same house.

    4. Side hustles to make money doing anything legal to stay housed and fed. Including children working.

    5. Continuation of the boarding house.

    6. Trigger Event Prediction: Great Quake across the United States, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis.

    7. Trigger Event Prediction: Causing an economic crash which we will be unable to recover from.

    8. Trigger Event Prediction: America’s trading partners are going to drop the dollar. China and Russia will drop the dollar as the world reserve currency.

    9. Obvious to all once major White countries that the ‘common agenda’ is/was/will be the major decline in the White race. Elimination is the end goal, mixing of the races will suffice, until then all Black on White crime will continue to be low key while all minor or major White race crime on any other race will continue to be harnessed/heralded/weaponized against the White race.

    10. Obvious more and more to average people, the RULERS of our lives do not want sovereign nations or successful/happy/well-adjusted citizens. The anti-Christ spirit is loosened upon the earth, and he will be revealed in the 2025-2030 time frame.

    11. Whether by war(s), plague(s), new or old diseases, economic collapse, famine, etc., major worldwide population decline; hitting mostly developed nations.

    George, these are just ‘some’ comments that came to mind while reading your exhaustive report. Thank you.

  11. “91-Year-Old Clinton Judge Blasts Trump DOJ Lawyer, Extends Block on Removal of Tren de Aragua Gang Members in Alien Enemies Act Case. To me, it makes a strong case judges should be able to be recalled from the bench for malpractice of law.”

    The judge doesn’t have the authority. He is still doing it, and the Trump Administration is (so far) following the directives of all these communist judges.

    They can be [recalled.] Congress has purview over ALL Federal courts except the USSC. They can’t fire the judge, but the House can defund his bench and has the power to disappear the court over which (s)he presides. I suspect if Justice Roberts doesn’t soon locate his stones, the Administration will insist the House do so.
    __________

    “We can, however, look back to the previous Depression for pointers.

    “More recently – U.S. housing prices likely peaked in June 2024,”

    Not really. In 1929 Daddy Warbucks wasn’t sucking up single-family housing wherever it stood. Blackrock has been doing so over the past several years, to the tune of more than 3 million houses. This is a huge artificial manipulation. I’m bright enough to recognize this, but not financially-savvy enough to know how it will play out if Blackrock either

    A) rents ’em all (or refuses to sell) or
    B) loses their ass and throws all these properties into the fire sale market…
    __________

    “My consigliere is keen on reminding me that “Class A Office Space” is the last to crash.”

    Unless it belongs to FedGov…

    • Ray
      It would certainly give Blackrock the ability to crash the housing market if they choose to do so. Would give them a great opportunity to profit in the market knowing in advance of turmoil. The bankers did pretty well for themselves in 2008.
      What financial institution doesn’t love a gov bailout.

Comments are closed.