Phony Trade Deal & Crooked Markets

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We begin this morning with a few remarks, though not as in depth as the Saturday Peoplenomics report, on how the “trade deal” hyped all-to-hell-and-gone last week is largely phony.

The short reason is politics.  Since trade deals involve what?   Revenue.  And all revenue bills must begin in the House of Representatives.  And the House is controlled by what (recently insane) party?  Suddenly, all should become clear.  Trade is a propaganda battle.

But, just in case it’s not, you need only look at the early (5:20 AM) futures (Dow -117) to realize that I’m not the only one who’s seen “the play.”

While CNBC advised traders earlier this morning to “Hold the ‘champagne’: What Chinese state media are saying about the trade talks…”  there is  another  story which almost certainly will be buried by the US corporate-controlled media complex.

It’s on the front page of the official  Xinhua English site.  And it says, in so many words, is that US Trade Deal or not, “China’s foreign trade up 2.8 pct in first three quarters.”  Not only that, but China would obviously cut a more palsy-walsy U.S. trade deal with a radical U.S. socialist president.  They’re playing us for time.

While Liz Warren has been showing strength, Bernie Sanders is back blasting, too, which looks good to Chinese (global empire-building) powers. “Billionaires could face up to 97.5 percent tax rates under Sanders’ plan: economists” is Marxist Playbook chapter two, isn’t it?  China will keep playing Trump for time, as they roll a Colombo-like “...derr’s juss one more ting, shir…”  Foot drags ahead.

Trump may not like being played, but he’s got a mirage to manage.  If you take the financial ebullience of America out of the election ads, there’s not much to talk about.

This brings into focus, for our deeper-thinking readers, the idea something ain’t quite right.  Especially, when our Peoplenomics Global Aggregate Index was up a shade more than 2-percent last week.  Where the hell did that come from?  (G20 QE Deluxe, of course!)

What’s going on?

No substantive trade deal, democrats in the House will block anything meaningful anyway. Europe is about to be over-run by another wave of Middle East refugees.  The Houthi’s still want to take-down the Saudis and grab their few nukes (bought from Pakistan) for Iran to use later on Israel.  And, despite China trying to work both sides of the war-ready India-Pakistan stand-off, there’s little in the way of New, Got To Have It technology to drive the next round of global economic expansion.

PLUS the new high tech is AI and Robots and they don’t make jobs once built – they consume them.  Oh boy, we’re screwed then.

So, what’s’ the real deal?

Today’s Monday Crackpot Theory (MCT, not to be confused with the oil) is that Globalist Revolutionaries are making a run at Sovereign Countries.  In other words, the globalistas are pulling the strings of everything, in order to more-completely dominate world activity.

After successfully running-up markets on easily sold puffery (like trade) last week, we expect the globalistas will now take things down several notches in their push to agglomerate the remaining sovereign world.

Running up markets last week enables them to sell high (shorting).  They would then expect to cover (buying low) in a couple of weeks when Life becomes very scary.

What?  Didn’t get the memo?

Two biggies come Halloween this year:  BREXIT for one.

Latest there is “Pound Weakens As Brexit Deal Prospects Dim:” and “Brexit talks continue in Brussels ahead of crunch summit.”

Although Wikipedia doesn’t come out and say “tone-deaf, globalists shoved the joining of the European Union down unwilling British throats” they do report that when “…51.9% of participating voters voted to leave, the UK government formally announced the country’s withdrawal in March 2017, starting a two-year process that was due to conclude with the UK withdrawing on 29 March 2019. As the UK parliament thrice voted against the negotiated withdrawal agreement, that deadline has been extended twice, and is currently 31 October 2019.[2][3] An Act of Parliament requires the government to seek a third extension if no agreement is reached before 19 October.”

As you can see, (in crooked Globalist fashion) the Pro-EU faction is still trying to hornswoggle the Brits back into paying for a regional super-government which has done nothing to stop the Muslim Reconquest of Europe.  Why?  Because the EU saw selling-out regional autonomy for the short-term economic stimulative benefits of unchecked immigration as preferable to being responsive to “folks back home.”  European liberalism  at its worst.

Meantime, the WTO clears U.S. to target EU goods with tariffs over Airbus.  But that won’t put Boeing’s MAX back in the air on U.S. schedules any faster.

The Second Biggie on the Plate is the U.S. Fed meets on the 29th and 30th of this month.  Obviously, if the US market  can now be shoe-horned into a steep decline, the Fed could get scared.  So, instead of dropping a quarter point, the globalistas’ wet dream is a half-point.  When the US goes tango-uniform because of soaring debt, the globalistas will bail us through a massive tax increase back on us.  Global conquest will be complete and America will no longer even pretend to be “free.”

While the prospect of “More free money” is generally stimulative, a CNBC summary reminds us “Market may be expecting more rate cuts than the Fed will deliver, meeting minutes show.”

This morning, after a weekend to “dry out” Wall Street may be coming to terms with all of this, so for a day (or three, or 10) we wouldn’t be looking for a huge rally.

There’s really not much else to worry about.  So let me pepper you with a few headlines of interest.

Pass the Pepper

Nobel gets it wrong, again.  “Nobel in Economics Is Awarded for Work Toward Alleviating Poverty.” I say “wrong again” because in our (jaundiced) view of world affairs, we don’t see any evidence any of theories working.  Instead, we still see factional power plays and the use of immigration to stimulate economies of both the US and Europe.

As  Fortune points out, there is still  “The Need for New Economic Theory: CEO Daily.”  Nobel papers, notwithstanding.

Times Sinks:  “Fly Fishing Is the New Bird-Watching” reports the  New York Times.  They skipped-over the “pan-fried they’re great” part.

Fox rakes it in with:  “Why Americans say ‘fall’ over ‘autumn’.”  Slow news day for them, too, we figure.  They overlooked the real point:  Americans have become lazier and dumber.  Three letters to spell FALl versus five to spell AUTuMN.  Couldn’t they have at least mentioned that?  Sheesh.

De-electrifying: While we await feedb ack in our Comments section about the PG&E power blackouts which likely took some Tesla charging off line, we also notice that “$35 Billion: UK Faces Huge Loss From Electric Vehicle Adoption” See?  Oilman2 is still right.  Gasoline and diesel work when the lights are out.  Unlike Tesla’s and Bitcoins.  Proof that we’re living in “colliding universes.”

Speaking of Oil: Saudi Aramco Says Damage From Drone Attacks That Plunged World Oil Market Into Chaos Is Already Fixed.  Let’s start a 30-day timer for the Houthi’s to come back for another go at it.  Might go 60, but that’d be the high end.

Around the Ranch (ATR)

The latest “dream antenna” began to take shape Saturday and Sunday:  An Extended Double Zepp for 40-meters 50-feet up fed with 450-ohm super low-loss ladder line all the way back to a classic 2-KW Johnson Matchbox.  A few parts still needed, but should have some SWR measurements and signal reports by next weekend.

Texas White-tail Deer Youth season opens on October 26th.  That’s gotten me to thinking about a new business model to help people amortize their kids.  Rent them out to hunters for the Youth Season.  (Then, take ’em down to the border and rent them out there, too…)  OK, this sounds a little sick, but that’s the world we live in marching toward Soylent Green.  Love the stories of  5-year olds bagging a 10-point, though.

Cocktail talk:  The most unsuitable parents still seem to spawning the most children.  Until liberals learn that math matters globally and how Fibonacci penciled out rabbit populations, we either crash the world with not enough jobs in a zero growth environment (imploding the economy – which is predicated on constant-growth).  Then get a massive Crash.   OR we eat the last of the planetary agar.  *We assume you know “The Fibonacci sequence was discovered by studying population growth.”

We’re not sure how the latter case, global autoerotic asphyxiation will work when we run out of everying, but we figure be plant food before the robots figure out humans have only limited uses.

Which gets to a mind-stretching thought:  Given a billion years to evolve (and self-engineer) could robots and AI eventually transition into a harmonious biological sphere?  Like the one this once was?

Hmmm…

While you ponder that, I’m penciling out what the  Eurostox Index being down 0.67% means for the US.  Aggregated Markets theory says the US would be inclined to follow.  So round Friday to 26,817 and that would be a 179-point equivalent US decline.  We’ll see how that works out.

(An alternate calculation averaging German, French, and British markets offers 0.5866 percent down early so that would only be a Dow decline of 157 today, but again, no telling what ballistic headlines will do to perfect economic theory…which is why we will get up again tomorrow morning.)

Today’s “deep work” is the first chapter of the next  Peoplenomics book:  “ Suitcase Between Your Ears.”  Since you can’t take money with you , what’s a rational person do to properly  “pack for the afterlife” if there is one? Which we think there is…

Write when you get rich,

george@ure.net

22 thoughts on “Phony Trade Deal & Crooked Markets”

  1. I am so disgusted with world events and the general dumbassery of my species that I refuse to read anything more than the headlines on online alt news web sites. I can’t do a damn thing about any of the corruption and stupidity going on, so the best way for me to go is to enjoy my life as best I can and help the folks I know lead a better one. I may have to ride the planet down in its handbasket to hell, but I don’t have to watch.

  2. The link below outlines Yang’s UBI plan.

    Basically, everyone – you, me, our host G, Ivanka Trump, Chelsea Clinton, everyone – in the country will get a monthly direct deposit for $1,000 (some plans call for $2,000). The receiver can spend the money anyway they want.

    I think direct UBI is justified because we paid for a lot of UBI that’s already out there. You may not agree the GM bailout was UBI, the iron worker who worked hard all day, building on a public stadium is UBI.

    Farm bailout anyone – “Trump’s direct payments to farmers hurt by his trade dispute with China have totaled some $28 billion ” is UBI.

    Boeing is on the ropes and is not going away. The U.S. is not going to stop building airplanes. GM set precedent Boeing will get a bailout.

    PG&E – think about electricity reasonably. Do you think the California blackouts will expand? Do you think more Californian home oxygen users are going to die for the cause? No. A federal bailout is coming for them. Note: PG&E got a bailout in 2003.

    Carrier got tax subsidies. That’s UBI too.

    UBI is everywhere, we quibble over semantics. Like the pensioner screaming for a bailout. We didn’t make the deal between the company and the pensioner – that’s his problem. But the pensioner drags us into his problem and we’re going pay for his deal.

    Yang.

    https://www.yang2020.com/what-is-freedom-dividend-faq/

    U.S. House Passes Pension Bailout as Democrats Eye Union-Heavy States for 2020

    “The bill would bail out multi-employer pension plans that are on the verge of collapse. The measure would help pension plans sponsored by several employers and managed by a collective bargaining agreement by giving loans to insolvent plans so they can continue to distribute the promised retirement benefits. The legislation passed 264-169, with bipartisan support.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-25/house-passes-pension-bailout-as-democrats-eye-industrial-states

    • Out of work,
      Great analogy of how UBI is already among us. The banks got a huge UBI in 2008…Big Oil gets subsidies for no reason at all…which is UBI. All the tax laws and shelters and ways to skirt paying taxes among the richest 1% is basically UBI. Imagine if the top 5% who don’t really need $1,000 a month, somehow develop a good conscience and donate their $1,000 to a charity…Imagine someone living in Section 8 uses that money to get his/her own place, thus freeing up space for another who needs that subsidized housing even more. Imagine families using that extra money to pay for piano lessons, or robotics classes, or math tutoring to enhance their child’s mind to give their kid a better life. Imagine a family with infants taking their extra $1000 and putting it in a 529 Plan for the next 18 years to totally pay for their kids college.( Isn’t this a better way Bernie? )

      Why do corporations get UBI’s, tax breaks, subsidies and we as everyday citizens pay our 25-30% in taxes like lemmings? Break down Yangs plan like out of work Steve and it isn’t a bad plan.

    • -=sigh=-

      ” because we paid for a lot of UBI that’s already out there. You may not agree the GM bailout was UBI, the iron worker who worked hard all day, building on a public stadium is UBI.”

      NO.

      How much money did you receive from the GM bailout, local works projects, farm subsidies, etc.?

      When you bastardize a term which has a specific meaning, you genericize it to the point intellectual idiots and the dishonest use it in place of similar, but non synonymous terms.

      UBI is not s subsidy, a bailout, a loan, or a merit award. It is charity, by an organization which is not designed to give charity.

      The amount of money required to grant UBI to every American is roughly equal to the total of U.S. government income.

      From where would the money come?

      When a governmental entity increases the amount of money in its citizens’ pockets, by any means other than allowing them to keep more of the money they have already earned through their industriousness, the net result is ALWAYS a reduction in the purchasing power of their money to a level below where it was before the government “orchestra” began fiddling.

  3. George, regarding “Passing The Pepper,” as usual, it hit the nail on the head.
    All of those old ‘honorifics’ and noble causes are under attack by the lefties. Nothing new here. Just to remind you that this is a pattern, the Nobel Peace Prize was previously handed out to President Obama. He was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for doing nothing at all. Statuary in the nation is destroyed. Acknowledging history is culled from education. Not recognizing any of this is what is new.
    Political posturing and media manipulation for the masses is all that is left of those once lofty awards and considerations. An honor in name only.
    In the socialist world there can be none of that sort of recognition given away to individuals as it puts outsiders on the pedestal of INDIVIDUAL ADMIRATION and would draw attention away from their chosen path.
    To eliminate that leaking away of attention by competing and accomplishing, the Dem/Socialists need only to continue ridiculing the ‘honor’ by awarding it to their candidates for doing nothing. It will soon be dragged down to become nothing more than an ‘attendance award’.
    Everything in the Capitalist economy is a target of theirs for elimination because it represents historical resistance to socialism. The ability to make comparisons between the systems is under attack because the ways of socialism cannot withstand the scrutiny.
    It is easier to destroy one’s competition by using ridicule, denial and commonality to eliminate admiration for outstanding achievement. Thus, cheapening the award is easier than continuing to lose prestige by failure to actually perform.

  5. About electric cars. When the powers out, you can’t get gas either. It takes electricity to run the pumps. So a Tesla May run out of electricity, but a car runs out of gas too. Both have optional fuel back-ups…storage…Tesla has it battery storage unit (Power Wall) and gas has a gas can.

    About the trade deal.Trump just bloviated that the farmers are getting the “hugest Deal” in the history of trade. Errr…no they are not. My son is in Ag Tech and works directly with farmers and since California is by far the largest Ag state in the country and one of the biggest regions for Ag in the world, I can say with confidence that farmers want Trump gone. This deal with Japan restores about only 80% of what they had before Trump took it away with the dismantling of the Trans-Pacific Partnership…and this deal has limits. … We already know that corn growers in the Midwest want him out due to his lessening the fuel standards which affects the sale and production of ethanol, but since Trump has failed to approve a North American trade deal with Canada and Mexico after dismantling NAFTA, and stalled trade talks with China, this Japan Deal is the runt of the trade litter…After withdrawing from the TPP, America’s competitors got a two year head start and used it to sign multi-year contracts in Japan and other Asian countries including China to sell farm products. Now, farmers in America are in the unenviable position to thrash bask and fight for losses market share. It won’t be easy. The Burning of the Amazon rain forests is happening because those regions are in the mix to replace American farm production….at a much cheaper price. Trump blinked and blinked and blinked. Now he has to play catch up…which he probably spells “ketchup”in a Homer Simpson sort of way.

  6. From the various press bureau’s.

    “ China isn’t ready to sign what Trump calls the “phase one” deal without more talks later this month. Beijing also wants commitments prior to signing that the next round of U.S. tariffs, scheduled for Dec. 15, is off.”

    As George Conway aptly put it…”So, it’s a fake deal…Surprise, Surprise.”

    • ????
      STALLING….
      ….

      I wonder if they figure if they wait long enough that the puppeteers may be able to get their boy in .

  7. George:

    And so, here we are, 18 years later.
    Overwhelmingly the greatest damage Bin Laden did to us and the West was via the US’s own reaction in destabilizing (breaking) the Middle East.
    Thank you Bush and Cheney.
    How could they and the other Conservatives/Hawks not realize that by bringing ‘democracy’ to a nation mostly of Shiite, they were giving it (and the peripheral areas too as we see now) to Iran?
    Or were the conservatives just trying to cast Bush as a patriotic ‘War President’ so he’d get re-elected, and Bush himself was too pathetic and too weak to buck the seduction, and Cheney/Big Oil wanted the oilfields?
    All those fine young American casualties and $8 trillion squandered onto the national debt.
    Would have been way cheaper just to give Halliburton and the rest of Big Oil their profit on the situation. What could it have been? $200 billion? Cheap at twice the price.
    And the real leadership Republicans? They knew better too, but shut up and took their tax cuts. Just like now. Pathetic.
    And Hillary and Bill were just as pathetic. They had to know better too, but no doubt thought it would be political suicide for her to buck the wave of ‘patriotism’ that the Conservatives flamed (branded), and then rode like Zorro.
    Disgusting.
    And in the end, it cost her the presidency and England their Brexit. Ironic, no? France tried to buck it, but they were not powerful enough to buck Hannity’s “Freedom Fries.” LOL. (Symbolic of the conservative branding machine led by Fox — just like now.)

    Hence my personal quote: Because of Bush, I had to listen to the French say I told you so.

    Once a region is destabilized, the natural re-stabilization typically involves the mass slaughter of the losing factions along with the mass migration of the losing side fleeing the death and violence.

    Best, Mike.

    • You left Obama out of your rant. So what did Obama do that was different than Bush or Clinton, other than use a different spin to cover his tracks?

    • Where they reall that fine??? “All those fine young American” Shouldn’t THEY have known better?

      I’m so sick and tired of hero talk. It should have ended 1945 but it didn’t. Same retarded people like then ;-((.

  8. “The most unsuitable parents still seem to spawning the most children. ”

    This is also postulated in the movie “Idiocracy”!

    And the results of same are presented five hundred years in the future.

    Warning: It’s a comedy.

  10. The equity markets are deterministic. Overvaluation and bad debt
    define the saturation valuation limits.

  12. I need to make an appology to one of the commentors that was excited on experimenting with new technology…. I interjected my opinion where it wasn’t asked for a few days ago in a not so sensitive manor that wasn’t condusive to learning.
    My wife pointed out that I am not as sensitive as I should be and that no one ever stopped me from experimenting where I wanted to. she basically said.. KYBFMS.
    so because of that I offer my humblest appologies and will try not to do it again.. I wasn’t trying to talk down.. somtimes I have a tendency to be insensitive or arguemenitive and didn’t intend to be either..

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