Market Are Crazy – St. Louis Fed Chair is Not

Early Dow Futures were showing the market ready to pop a further 80+ points to the upside today.  Yet, there may be a simple technical reason:  Options expiration is just ahead.  And lots of bears like to buy just out-of-the-money put options (that go up in price as markets come down) in the fall.

Yet,, in London, St. Louis Federal Reserve Chair James Bullard is not sounding very confident of what’s ahead.  In his presentation Insurance against Downside Risk for the U.S. Economy,” at the Monetary and Financial Policy Conference, this PowerPoint slide summed things up well:

One recalls at the last FOMC meeting, Bullard argued for a 1/2 point drop.  Today, with this “meeting by meeting” language, it seems the market would logically be a little more cautious.  Because here’s what Bullard sees ahead:

Doesn’t make me want to go long much of anything.

Bullard’s view, or not – bulls are still in control, at least for today’s open.  Partly because of better than expected earnings from JP Morgan and Goldman reports soon, too.

Early Dow Futures were +77 with :45 to kickoff.

Strategic Disasters?  Or Soft Coup?

International clouds are another reason not to trust this market.

For one, Turkey’s currency is going up despite the talk of US sanctions.  Details of the sanctions in Trump slaps new sanctions on Turkey.

As we read Turkey steps up Syria offensive in spite of Trump’s warnings, we also find the growing number of stories about U.S. nuclear weapons in the region concerning.  Air Force Times, for example rolls with “Turkey’s invasion of Syria, concerns mount over nukes at Incirlik.

What could go wrong?  The NY Times is blasting out to syndicated sites “Trump Followed His Gut on Syria. Calamity Came Fast. .

But, not so fast!  Did you see where “Russia’s military police patrol contact line between Syrian, Turkish forces: RIA?”  Maybe between the US and…

Oh, wait: U.S. ‘Hands Over’ Syrian City to Russia, Reports Say.  Uh…is there a real estate deal going on we didn’t get copied on?  And look:  Does this mean more Russian development coming to the contested eastern Ukraine area? Moscow Considers More Tax Breaks for Crimea…the head spins.

The More Reasoned View

Our .mil affairs whiz, warhammer,  is pretty skeptical of the anti-Trump hype around Turkey:

We’ve either read or heard news hype that up to 50 U.S. nuclear weapons reportedly located at Incirlik Air Base could be “held hostage” by Turkey.

A few things to keep in mind:  (1) The reporting is courtesy of the NY Times, which should never considered a reliable news source for any article aiming to cast shade on Trump; and  (2) all foreign positioned U.S. nukes, no matter where they are stationed, have plans in place to (a) protect them; (b) quickly remove them; or (c) permanently incapacitate them.

The only strategic issue of importance is the potential loss of 50 nukes in a volatile geographic area.  Believe it or not, these weapons are the ‘ace in the hole’ for preventing rogue attacks or coup d’état attempts on friendly governments, e.g. Iran messing with Israel or Saudi Arabia.  U.S. Navy ships and subs can fill the gap left by evacuating the weapons from Incirlik, Turkey, but defending ships or subs at sea can prove more complex than defending storage and launch facilities on land.  Consider that ships can be attacked by other ships, by airborne assets, or from ‘under’ the sea, while land locations can only be attacked by land or air.  So there’s an extra dimension that needs to be defended for ships, subs and their nukes at sea.

Rest assured that if or when Turkish President Erdogan decides to make a move for those U.S. nukes at Incirlik, those nukes will be ‘already long gone.’ (nods to the Eagles)

So, when a well experienced former B-52 oak leaf kind of guy says “we got it handled” one could (depending on how the coffee hits) kick pack and wonder is this isn’t just the latest burst of anti-Trump spew around Turkey.  Part of the ongoing “soft coup?”

Witch Hunting

Speaking of which: Here we go with another update on the national spectacle: Bolton reportedly tried to raise alarm over Giuliani involvement in Ukraine.

Remember:  This is the democrat’s private witch hunt, too, as a GOP lawmaker was booted from impeachment inquiry hearing.  Smell something rotten, yet?

Meantime, Kamala Harris continues to demonstrate why she’s not ready for the WH prime time as the story Kamala Harris: Impeaching Trump ‘shouldn’t take very long’ because ‘we have a confession’ makes the rounds.  Like most anti-Trumpers, Harris is selling the Ukraine phone call as a political action.  Trumps counter is he was going after corruptions.  Had anyone listened to the actual call, or read the transcript, there’s no “evidence” – and the real issue is the Biden boy dough.  Harris had got to feel desperate, what holding down fifth place for weeks…

Meantime, some meddlesome follow up: Belarus Detains Russian Accused of U.S. Election Meddling.

What to Miss on TV

Just in from our “remote bureau”  Be sure and miss the democrat debate on TV tonight.  Fight Club was more real.

Hats Off To…

Project Veritas’ alleged CNN whistleblower claims network is ‘pumping out propaganda’.  CNN’s pathetic dodge is clear in “CNN Says No One in Project Veritas’s #ExposeCNN ‘Sting’ Is a CNN Journalist“.

Oh? Didn’t like the report, huh?  CNN’s defense is utter bullshit, as I see it as a half-century journalist…

Save Reality!  Turn off CNN!

St. Jeff Takes on St. Wally & the Bentonville Elves

Credit cards at the ready? Walmart’s New Pricing Program Ramps Up Holiday Shopping War With Amazon.

We’ve had really good luck deal-sniping between the two.  Especially on electronics.

As of this morning, a Sceptre 55″ UHD was $239.99 with the Wally elves, while St. Jeff’s had ’em for a bit more than that.  Wal-Mart’s big plus is you can buy on line and locally pick it up..Amazon is a lazy one-click… decisions, decisions, eh?

Coinster Note

Interesting to notice in the Chinese press:  “Market speculators hold net short position of Bitcoin futures..”  Bitcoin was holding $8,284 this morning when checked.  Reports like the one from the Chinese may mean something to the untraceable money people in Hong Kong, for example.

Ever wonder how much BTC the CIA pushes around?  We sure do especially when there’s trouble in places like Hong Kong: Hong Kong Legislature to Reopen as Police Say Bomb Detonated in Escalating Violence.

And here we go again, mixing politics with sports as LeBron James Accused Of Kowtowing To Beijing By Calling Morey Tweet ‘Misinformed’.  (Is everyone an expert on everything nowadays?)

China has the same inflation problems of a capitalist country with 3 percent year on year being reported.  I’m not sure how China can get away with calling themselves communist with such accoutrements as inflation, interest, and private ownership, but again:  roll-your-own world.

French CPI was down 0.3% but as with all cost report, who do you trust with the accounting.

Interstellar Hype

With no more genders left to monetize (I think we’re up to 40-something in Canada based on the two basic hardware platforms (ins and outs) and all the software variants) so what better to monetize than the vast nothingness of space?

Well, here comes an Ex-NASA scientist says they found life on Mars in the 1970s.

Thing is, it’s a story about chemical reactions, not about breathable air, 24-hour disco bars and things like that.  Still, rather than continuing to monetize far too many idiotic news channels, maybe the Bezos’s and Branson’s of the world may be onto something with space exploration.  Until we run out of resources.  Or money.

Among the space geeks, “Today, it costs $10,000 to put a pound of payload in Earth orbit. NASA’s goal is to reduce the cost of getting to space to hundreds of dollars per pound within 25 years and tens of dollars per pound within 40 years.”

Chow call…more tomorrow for our subscribers…more here Thursday…  And don’t forget what to miss on TV tonight (ahem…)

34 thoughts on “Market Are Crazy – St. Louis Fed Chair is Not”

  1. “Well, here comes an Ex-NASA scientist says they found life on Mars in the 1970s.”

    I thought that was common knowledge ..

    Now I’m sitting here trying to remember if I read it someplace or some acquaintance shared it with me..

    • George,
      I thought you got rid of the obnoxious and the ignorant from postings their tripe? Is it interesting the level of duplicity and the double standard displayed by those with TDS? First of all read the damn transcript of the phone conversation! It is obvious that the people trying to twist that into a quid pro quo has not read it.

      It will be fun to watch heads spin, minds blown and even an higher state of TDS when Trump is reelected and congress goes to the GOP because of the 4 years of incessant investigation, false claims and exoneration after exoneration after exoneration.

      All of this closed door meetings and “hearings” for impeachment is a complete and total distraction from what will soon be coming. There is going to be an IG report coming this Friday. There will be people recommended for prosecutions. There is going to be people held accountable for lying, and trying to orchestrate a coup.

      That is when the preverbal chit is going to hit the fan! It should be entertaining to watch.

    • Dr Richard Alan Miller’s high school invention was used by a joint USA/Russia Mars mission to see if they could find water in 1968. In 1969 they went back nuked the pole to release ice sheet.

      Cold war was simply for our consumption.

  2. Soft Coup or Occult Hot War..

    latest conspiracy theory – PG&E outages last week = white hat tactical ploy to uncover underground DUMB network&tunnels – power outages enable tracing of underground electricals. Several unexplained underground explosions have been reported in the area as well. This is same area that leftie elites own adjoining ranch properties in as well..hmmm

    Nah the orange gollum of greatness is stupid to do any such thing as lead the Military/NSA vs CIA/DS. Just one big dumb obnoxious orange moron, no?

    Try this one for size and fit..the 4th turnings’ gray champion – TRUMP!


  3. Are you guys following the WeWork UBI?

    WeWork wanted to go public. The company turned out to be a scam. For some reason just today J.P. Morgan has extended WeWork a $5,000,000,000 line of credit. There is no hope that WeWork will ever be able to pay back the $5,000,0000,000, but there it is.

    I think WeWork is a GSE to soak-up unrented space.

    When you need better “mark to market” what’s better than to create a market for your marks?

    • I believe JPM extended WeWork a $500 million line of credit. A small sum indeed to the likes of JP Morgan. And JP Morgan will get an extra $50 million from the WeWork
      IPO in addition to fat fees.

  4. George

    “So, when a well experienced former B-52 oak leaf kind of guy says “we got it handled” “.

    Sounds like the kind of guy who knows what happens when the Deedle tone sounds and Drop Kick starts talking letters and some important time elements along with some Authentication info!

      • From soup to nuts, Rocket Mike :-)

        America let the genie out of the bottle 74 years ago. We are morally obligated to insure we place the highest protective measures on our nuke arsenal, from storage and disposal to command and control and launch (if ever again needed). The idealists who believe ridding the world of nukes will instantly lead to peace and prosperity are in denial, having no concept of the evil that patiently lies in wait across this planet, waiting for an opportune time to attack the weak. Peace thru strength is a great national bumper sticker these days.

  5. George,

    I’m not worried about Turkey holding our nukes hostage, or our Kurdish allies being slaughtered, or thousands of ISIS terrorists escaping, or Syria being handed over to Iran/Russia. Of course Trump thoroughly, even meticulously, planned out his Syria withdrawal, so these sorts of things could not possibly go wrong. And of course, Turkey ‘promised’ him, so what could possibly go wrong? The only real question is why. Impulsive? Putin’s directive? More emoluments. It certainly makes no sense on its face. The only thing we know for sure at this stage is fiasco.

    Best, Mike.

  6. George,

    On Ukraine, Fox may have accidentally missed some of the story.
    Trump himself gave out the ‘dirt’ transcript — where Zelensky is pleading for the missile money and Trump says I need a favor though. Game over. The crime is made. Quid pro quo unnecessary. Later Trump himself again openly solicits dirt, and adds in China too. That’s still another crime, another confession/admission. Game over. While unnecessary, the situation is dripping with quid pro quo — ‘favor’ and “though”. If an ordinary jury, his goose would be cooked.
    Now we’re finding out that the then Ambassador was blocking their little ‘drug deal’ (Bolton’s characterization at the time!), which started around January, so she had to go for a friendlier ‘wheel-man.’ This implies that it was not just a scheme to extort dirt, but rather one to extort them into manufacturing dirt.
    Wow. Crime, Inc.
    As we work our way through the witnesses, we’ll find out more, but several crimes are already made.

    Best, Mike.

      • Infinite digits in the debt category, George. They can print as much as they like and buy it all if they want. If we were on a gold standard there’d be only so much money we could bring to bear unless we devalued the dollar clearly, publicly and resolutely. The Plunge Protection Team has a bottomless pit of debt they can pump from

      • Given that the US is eyeball deep in debt, probably in for high NEED inflation and want deflation (relative to income), the dollar is probably going to decline (higher relative values). companies are borrowing with cheap money to buy back stocks, pensions are investing ever more to stay solvent and it is hard no to put money in the market, in saving for retirement as the bank pays nothing. the reality is with tax breaks for retirement saving and the mortgage interest deduction – what people should be investing in first (a paid off home) is being utilized to borrow from to invest in the market to get ahead as in the 20s. until there is an actual slowdown economically the market will hold or go up – because there needs to be some action causing a withdrawl of capital from the market.

      • “it will come off the rails, when the fed says so. Haha”

        I am not sure.. but think your totally wrong Dave..

        When the velocity of money changing hands varies is when the changes will occur.
        I was just in Sam’s club. Less than a third of the normal Wednesday crowd. Along the pull line where there use to be 3 or 4 orders pulled was twenty or more. 2 checkouts operating and less than half the employees. I got in a discussion with the manager on the changes. They are pushing for people to join the next level up membership because store wide sales is down.
        I ment it is obvious.. your pushing online sales.. 90 percent of sales is impulse buying. Going online you buy your list and done.
        You cut staff because labor is your only flexible avenue to adjust for rising expenses. I pointed to a product on the end cap and said last year that product was 12.99 this year its 14.99 on special overall increases was 7 percent..
        He said they had to adjust because of increases in set costs..absolutely I have had to make those same adjustments.. 5 in the house 3.50 a meal per person 1.00 per snack per person with two snacks a day I was spending just shy two grand a mon the in Sam’s club. I haven’t bought anything for three months except essentials to get enough to pay taxes. Next month I have our cow coming.. if I am not the only one and what the store manager has said is true it will be the velocity of spendable cash that will control the fed’s. Shy of dumping money in peoples pockets the only recourse is dropping costs on products..
        At least that’s what I see

        Historically what happens to increase the economy

  7. George,

    Warhammer has it right. No one should worry themselves about the nuke story or really any of the other anti-Trump media stories. It’s under control and always was.

    I saw some other negative posts here by someone that presumes that they’re somehow knowledgeable about what is really going on in the Middle East. I got news for you, my friend, you aren’t informed and your reality is based on what the media tells you to think. Don’t forget that almost all of the media is the PR arm of the organized crime syndicate that’s been masquerading as representative government for the last 30+ years. You are NOT informed…in fact, you are misinformed by design. You’re clueless. That keeps you ‘barefoot and pregnant’. In other words, you’re under control and won’t cause trouble.

    For everyone else…Hang tight, folks. If what I’m hearing is still on schedule, this month is going to be one that we all remember for a very, very long time.

    • BOOM
      MAG13 and Warhammer, you gentlemen see and know much more than the pair barking Chihuahuas that think they are smarter and above the rest of us President Trump supporters
      I salute you and thank you. Easy to see why George considers you friends.
      In the history of mankind, these times are pivotal for humanity. Do we escape the unseen chains or remain in Socrates cave

      but what do I know? I am just…the other brother Darrell

      • Sorry MAJ13, Darrel got kick out of typing class in 9th grade[1966], same year I read “1984”

    • “If what I’m hearing is still on schedule, this month is going to be one that we all remember for a very, very long time.”

      Dam Maj… this one worries me…your always right on the money with your predictions this one scares me a lot

      • I’m not privy to the details of the third base discussion in this morning’s PN, BUT there has been a lot of recent ‘chatter’ about the Marine Reserves being used to augment law enforcement and first responders on the west coast. Smoke…but is there fire? I don’t know. It might be more misdirection.

        What I was referring to for October has more to do with the upcoming legal proceedings for some very big name players. The date keeps getting pushed because of cold feet in the DOJ. There are people that are terrified to cross the threshold. It WILL happen. It reminds me of our first year in Iraq. The Iraqis were absolutely convinced that Saddam would come back to power and punish anyone who worked with coalition forces. It was very difficult to employee people to do even the simplest tasks. One electrical worker refused to turn on the power at a local substation outside of Fallujah for fear of retribution. He eventually begrudgingly settled for an ‘official letter’ signed by me that gave him permission to perform the action.

        Saddam had taken on mythic proportions. He was everywhere and nowhere and he was watching everyone. Then we caught him in Mosul hiding in a spider hole. Then he was tried, convicted and hung. Same thing is going to happen here.

    • “You are NOT informed…in fact, you are misinformed by design. ”

      God it is so hard to determine what is real and what isn’t anymore…
      I use to think I was informed but theres so much going on and so many false narratives. It’s all a whirl of fake news with just enough truth tossed in to have you wondering …

  8. With the crop-damaged midwest buried in snow and ice after a flooded spring planting season, I am reminded of George’s words:

    “What turns a recession into a depression is famine.”

    Coming soon to a country near you.

  9. If you think the markets are legit, I’m speculating getting Syria off the books changes the ratios.

    Cutting Syria loose “freed up ammo”.

    If you think markets aren’t so legit, it’s clear the Fed is buying debt while Congress lines up the next bailout packages. Once the bailout packages are finished, they’ll pull it. The other day I posted the link showing Congress already approved the next pension rehabilitation.

    H.R.397 – Rehabilitation for Multiemployer Pensions Act of 2019

  10. “We’ve either read or heard news hype that up to 50 U.S. nuclear weapons reportedly located at Incirlik Air Base could be “held hostage” by Turkey.”

    Does anyone doubt that the human race has a DEATH WISH? All kind of wars should have ened 1945, IMHO; Except, we continue with the same stupid errors ;-((.

    • Forget the nuke bombs. What’s going to happen if some “unfortunate event” skewers the command and control of the nuke PLANTS in a major part of OUR country, let alone the rest of the world. How many Fukishimas and Chernobyls can the World handle?

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