(Gig Harbor, WA)  A couple of Julys ago, a friend of ours lost a son to suicide – a problem which continues to grow in the world.  So at this time of year we reflect on what kind of world we’ve made that drives people to end life prematurely.  A look at headlines is only part of it, but an important part, I expect.

But here lately, with the problems of Ebola, the stress of Ferguson, and more, we begin to wonder if increasing socioeconomic pressures globally might be ramping up (generalizing, if you will) the human death rate.  Against this backdrop, might the methods and techniques of medicine be used to study socioeconomic issues in a new way by using patterns of analysis similar to those employed in epidemiology?

There’s animal research, human psychological research, and the evidence right before us with things like road rage and the like.

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The market has had a couple of great days leading into the CIP report this morning, so let’s ruin breakfast with that one, first if you went short.  (Here, let me turn on your camera on your computer…aha! You could skip a meal, or two…)

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The all items index posted its smallest seasonally adjusted increase since February; the indexes for shelter and food rose, but were partially offset by declines in the energy index and the index for airline fares.

The food index rose 0.4 percent in July, with the food at home index also rising 0.4 percent after being unchanged in June. The decrease in the energy index was its first since March and featured declines in the indexes of all the major energy components.

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in July, the same increase as in June. Along with the shelter index, the indexes for medical care, new vehicles, personal care, and apparel all increased in July. Along with the index for airline fares, the indexes for recreation, for used cars and trucks, for household furnishings and operations, and for tobacco all declined in July.

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If you’re in the “Immortal years” (age 10-60) you might not find this very pertinent yet.  Print it up and save it a few years.  When you’ve used up 6-7 of your nine lives, it will begin to make sense.

The first time I ever moved, it was a simple matter of throwing a couple of bags of clothes into the back of my black ‘64 Ford Falcon and heading south on (then) newly minted Interstate-5.

By the time I was moving for a second time, it was all trimmed down to a single suitcase and I got on a Western Airlines jet and flew off to Alaska to be a microwave tech rep on a remote radar site.

In subsequent moves, I was mostly married and so it was two people – half the work.

Except for divorce, which is a “special case” – which is back to the throw your clothes in the back of a car adding the all-important checkbook and key financial records, and off you go down the freeway again…

One of the reasons for our extended stay here in the Pacific Northwest, other than business and such – is to test-run the idea of moving.

OMG…what a problem!

Neither Elaine or I is very fond of the idea of dying in the East Texas Outback.  But, as I ask her every couple of days, “When we get old enough, just exactly where would we like to die?”  No place has come to mind, yet.

Not a morbid thought – just an practical thing to ask when you reach a certain age.  Thinking the unthinkable (at least in the Immortal Years).

When we decided to rent a condo/apartment up here for a month, we knew (sort of) what we were in for.  We have been in the outback long enough to really appreciate the lack of traffic.  We thought it was exceptional to have to drive 20+ minutes to get to the closest store, for example.

Well, guess what?

Turns out, after going to the store during rush hour up here in the suburbs of Tacoma, near Seattle, that people do the same damn thing.  Except, instead of watching the wilds of East Texas roll pleasantly by, they are staring at the tail lights of the car in front of tem.

Note to inventors:  Come up with a way to monetize the rear end of the car in front of you.

Turns out that in terms of the “hassle factor” of shopping is about equal both places, but a better view in the outback) our other big learning was that we really, really don’t want to be on a second floor…ever again.

About 150 pounds of supplies and consumables got lugged up the stairs, followed by 200 pounds of bags and such, and all this on top of a meal of fish and chips.

No, second floors are definitely off the list.

Through the trip, we have kicked it around…what would it be like to sell off a gazillion dollars worth of shop tools, for example…as opposed to what would an 80-year old man be doing with welding and turning gear?  I figure to at least live that long, right?

That same problem comes to the hobbies, too. 

Figure I won’t be flying much past 70…maybe 72, or so.  Won’t need space for all the airplane crap.

Table saws can also become a problem by age 90, or so.  By then, my one bucket-list woodshop project ought to be done:  turning a 2-by-4 into a toothpick.

And when the hearing begins to seriously roll off, and I did test and yes, 12 KHz is starting to roll=-off pretty good now, in a dozen (or two) years, I won’t be mixing strings, if you know what I mean.  And my snares and high-hats will likely be way too intense.

I’m not saying 66 is a magical age (although it is a kind of financial “finish line” that we’ll cross next year) but it is when you need to begin getting “real” and having the conversations with yourself about the “next to last move” in life.  The last one is easy – small no-bedroom place that’s dark and in the end, many of us will get to try out underground housing.

But yes, 66 is harder than 16, 18, 21 or turning 30.

It also begins to change one’s outlook on prepping (don’t tell Gaye over at BackdoorSurvival this!) but on the way up here, Elaine asked a very pertinent question:  “When we get really old (as in older) do we really want to spend our last year on earth prepping?”  OK, what about the last month or week, then?

I have to admit I’m still thinking about that one.

Life is one prepping exercise after another: You go along prepping for college, then a job, then a series of higher-paying jobs,, and then you prep for retirement.  And then you prep for Ebola or whatever this week’s latest worry stone of the mass media happens to be.

In a sense, we’re starting to feel more kinship with our kids, who are adopting something of a minimalist lifestyle.  In their case, it’s because of economic reasons, sure, while in our case its more “Got to the point where things own us” instead of the other way around.

We’re all in a footrace with the Grim Reaper.  While it’s only a fool who would toss in the towel on that race prematurely, it’s also a fool who denies there’s that race to the finish the GR always wins.  We want to live a life that’s hardest for the GR to hack.

Working 12-hours a day, seven-days a week on this scheme or that is still acceptable, don’t get me wrong.  But the hard reality showed up at 2:30 AM Pacific as I sat down in a strange home with a cranky computer that decided to ignore my USB keyboard:  If this is “fighting the good fight” what would be a brilliant finishing sprint before we move into that final solution  ‘underground housing” not that many years down  the road?

It’s definitely something to think about as I try to figure out how to run an unfamiliar stove, adjust to a new toilet, stumble into walls, and realize life’s still a maze now, as much so as it was back age 13 when we started working..

An optimist is a person who takes out a new 30-year mortgage at age 66.  The bigger problem would be where, exactly, would that house be and what would it be like.  So far, damned if we know.

But it’s sure thought-provoking to look at this whole problem of “moving when you’re older.”

Reader’s Writes

I’m going to either solve this damn computer keyboard and mouse issue by Thursdays’ column (joys of win 8.1, huh?) or steal Elaine’s laptop which with Win-7 runs fine… I might as well be banging on a cheese sandwich this morning.

Nevertheless, the mail does get through…like this one:

I’m enjoying your travel logs.

May I suggest a link to your RSS feed somewhere on your site?

I guessed urbansurvival.com/rss which redirected to https://urbansurvival.com/feed/ which works great.

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A special thank you gift this morning for Peoplenomics subscribers as I’m on the road for the rest of the weekend and not able to generate a lot of original research while driving…

So thanks to co-author (and great human), JB Slear of www.fortwealthtrading.com, we present a free download of our MyGroPonics 3 book which you’ll maybe want to print out and have in your “Keeper” file of reports.  Along with JB’s phone number for when you get the itch to try some commodity option trading.  Great guy and his Trader’s Blog offers an alternative view on many topics including the trading ranges of the precious metals.

Then we have a few comments on cross country travel, occasioned by another 8-hours on the road.  But the real sanity question about how humans are presently organized was brought about by our re-introduction to the fine are of driving rain on the tiniest little freeway ever, I-25 from the E-740 expressway…and that gets us to another tale of turning a public highway into a toll road…because government can’t live within its own means.  But stick around till the blood pressure comes down from how highway taxery works in the Mile High world.

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Sometimes it’s the little things that tell you where the market is going.  Because of one of my seldom-mentioned indicators, I think we’re still “game on” for a market high later this month and maybe even new all-time highs to come with it.

And to what do I owe this onslaught of bullish sentiment?  I mean after all, I’ve been the head cheerleader for the bears ever since September of 1999 when I dared to suggest in a report called “Death by Dot Coms” that the market was getting a little pricey.

OK, here’s the secret. 

Every time we come through Amarillo, TX on  our way to (wherever) we stay at the Holiday Inn Express West.

As a result, a couple of times a year we get to see “what’s shakin” with regular people.

This morning I noticed that the main TV in the restaurant, which has been religiously on Fox and Friends and such in the past, was now on CNBC.

So has Art Cashin developed a huge fan club in Amarillo?  I suspect not. (Sorry, Art, I’m here, though….just don’t have time to start a chapter today….)

I think what may be going on is that people are getting used to the idea that despite the occasional hiccup. the stock market going up and down is what stock markets do.

Before the PPI came out (which we’ll get to in a sec) it occurred to me that the hotel television channel setting may be telling me something. 

When a hotel turns off Fox News and puts on CNBC it tells me that CNBC may be doing something right.

As it dawned on me that I’d grabbed strawberry cream  cheese, instead of plain, for my bagel, I watched the people very closely.  They were back to glancing at the CNBC screen and they weren’t paying much attention at all to the ESPN sports channel on the big screen at the other end of the room.

Amarillo, for the most part, is a cow town.  And the old boys coming in for breakfast (and the slickers coming to meet with ‘em) have a pretty good eye for bull.

While reading tea leaves, charts, the Greeks (all those mathematical/computation thingies) and even Elliott works some of the time, other times you just have to look around.  And judging by the mood around here, it’s rally ho!

At least for another few weeks…what happens after that will depend on if breakouts to new highs start showing up.

OK, the PPI Number…

Pardon the press release copy (which is about as interesting as a stranger’s hemorrhoid, also overheard at breakfast…), but here we go…

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.1 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This increase followed a 0.4-percent advance in June and a 0.2-percent decline in May. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand climbed 1.7 percent for the 12 months ended in July. (See table A.) In July, the 0.1-percent increase in final demand prices can be traced to the index for final demand services, which also rose 0.1 percent. Prices for final demand goods were unchanged. Within intermediate demand, prices for processed goods advanced 0.1 percent, the index for unprocessed goods dropped 2.7 percent, and prices for services moved up 0.3 percent.

The next big deal to come down the pike will be Consumer Prices next week…but for now, ut hasn’t been a bad week, so far.  Dow futures up another 44.

More after this…

              

MO: Security State Blowback / Life Enforcement

Free people who don’t lose a lot of rights have passively accepted the growing militarization of local police departments a lot easier than people on the receiving end of federal brutality.

In a way, the racial strife in Missouri is an echo of what was going on in pre-War Germany where an authoritarian government under Hitler had begun its crackdown on Jews.

The difference this time is Jews were a reasonably identifiable group.  In America today, it’s anyone who stands up for their rights past an poorly defined line in what government demands in human behavior.

That said, we recall that Fusion centers a while back put out “Constitutional material” I think was the phrase, as something law enforcement should be looking for as a tip to “domestic terrorism.”  But is that not a self-fulfilling prophesy?

Fast-forward to the Michael Brown death in Missouri and recent rioting and notice that even the national MSM have started to take notice of the ongoing militarization of local police departments with stories like “Pentagon Weaponry in St.

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Time to turn you into a junior business report, green belt.

While we edge out the door this morning, I won’t be able to do an update including the latest on import-export prices, but if you go over to the www.census.gov website after 8:30 Eastern, you should see a headline to the effect “International Trade” report released.  If not there, try www.bea.gov.

Give it about 15-minutes, or so, and then click over here to look at the financial futures and we should have an idea of how today will work out in the markets.  (Over here, don’t you bookmark anything anymore?)

After running up 91-points on the Dow yesterday, a little profit-taking would be expected, but today and tomorrow could be somewhat stable because this is when options for this cycle come off the table.  Third Friday of each month, but as one of our readers (Sunshine) occasionally reminds me, my skills counting on a calendar leaves a little something to be desired.  I appreciate people checking my work. It’s a full-time job once you get into it.

As of “sliding out the door time” the Dow was looking to add a few points and looking at the markets elsewhere, everything in Europe was up about half a percent on the majors while in Asia both the Nikkei and the Hang Seng were hangin’ higher.

All because I told you weeks and weeks ago that the annual high in the market (on average, YMMV) comes within a week to 10-days of August 26th. 

The technical picture is a little dicey, after that, and it will all depend on whether the Dow and the S&P can bust through the .618 retracement from recent lows.

If we can do that, then the market could have a parabolic rise this fall.  If not, see you in the funny papers…because that’s about all that’ll be left after global economic collapse comes along.

As students of the long wave (and other cycles) know, that may not happen until next fall, which sort of hints at a the political future of the country, but you get to work out those finer details for yourself.  You don’t get the green belt in reporting for just sitting on your butt and nodding like you follow what’s going on.

Homework assignment:  John Crudele’s savory NY Post story  “Censusgate throws light on political ‘Right.”  Another aficionado of gub’mint statistics…we oughta start a club.

More after this…

              

Something Big Coming?

Want something to be (even more) paranoid than usual about this morning? 

President Obama is coming back to Washington Sunday from vacationing and that has led to speculation that he may announce some unilateral action on immigration, or perhaps a big name foreign leader (Vlad Putin?) will be paying a surprise visit.

Apple’s Consumer Ear

Don’t know if you have been following the reports about toxic chemicals that were being used in the product assemble of some Apple products.  Nevertheless, they have banned the use of n-hexane and benzene at its final assembly plants, reports ComputerWorld.

IT note:  Cisco is axing 6,000 jobs in a restructuring plan.  Remember our comments about the “hollow recovery?”

Ebola Business Models

Everything’s a business model is our editorial mantra around here.

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As we head out this morning on our latest/next adventure, I wanted to pass along a note from a doctor/read of ours. 

He sent in a marvelous note after reading one of our missives earlier this month.  I would have posted it sooner, but it got stuck under a pile of other emails – my bad.

George, thank you for your column today, especially the prepping notes, it was worth the annual fee just for todays information. (for my friends, see https://urbansurvival.com/coping-prepping-for-a-ebola/ )

However, there is some information on Ebola that you need to know and to disseminate.  If people don’t read anything else that I have written here, please understand that IF YOU TREAT A PATIENT WITH EBOLA OR GET NEAR THEM YOU WILL PROBABLY DIE.  You have no idea what it is like to take care of someone with this disease.  

Basically it is impossible without knowing a tremendous amount about disease transmission.  Even the doctors with all their disease transmission gear don’t have a clue.  

And toilet paper needs for someone with this disease?  You must be kidding George.  How about towels and towels and new mattresses?  How about lime and burning all used articles of clothing?  Is anyone prepared for that?  

These people infected are literally DISSOLVING from the inside.  Just to show you what you don’t understand, put some poop (your own or any animal, mix it with some blood (I don’t know where you’re going to get that lol…. local butcher?  I don’t know), put them in a bucket outside in temperatures over 90 degrees (the body is around 100 degrees), let it sit for about 5 hours, and go smell of it for at least a few minutes.  The odor is so overpowering you have no idea.  

Now imagine you have to be around that, and that the smell brings with it an infectious agent that will kill you in the same way.  Ebola is almost certain death.  The only people who have survived have access to high intensity care, usually hospital intensive care type care, and even then their odds are low of survival.  Now imagine hundreds if not thousands or tens of thousands of people infected.  Imagine your child infected, are you not going to try and take care of them?  

This is the problem, most parents and loved ones wont be able to stay away, and they will become infected and spread it on to others.  I have tried for years to break diagnosis of this disease down into a nutshell,  how to recognize, and be concerned that someone might have Ebola, and I came up with the following, if you see someone bleeding from the eyes and the nose, turn around and go the other way, 20 feet is minimum distance, otherwise you are at very high risk of becoming infected.  This is actual BLEEDING (not just red eyes).  Don’t touch anything they have touched, don’t stay in the area.  Whole villages have disappeared for not understanding these simple facts.

That’s it, for more at length, my qualifications are 30+ years of “practicing” medicine, I have participated in research at major research institutions (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and Tufts New England Medical Center in Boston Mass.), have practiced in emergency rooms and urgent care centers, and I have a wide interest in socio-economics, politics, epidemiology, and the world in general.  I have logged over 250,000 patient encounters in my career. 

Ebola breaks down into 5 or 6 strains.  The most worrisome problem, detailed in the non-fiction book, “The Hot Zone: The Terrifying True Story of the Origins of the Ebola Virus” which details the “Reston” strain, which became air-borne in a research facility, infected humans, but apparently was only lethal to the monkeys, which died or were put down.

Stephen King said, at the time, that it was the scariest book he had ever read.  In other words, imagine a flu that is circulating that is 90% fatal. 

Currently, and apparently (there are multiple reports going about the current Ebola might be respiratory spread, although I do not see any hard evidence that that is the case), this Ebola strain is not spread by respiratory secretions.  Remember though, that a person with Ebola, is shedding billions (Billions with a B) of viral particles all the time in “body” fluids.  Vomit, diarrhea, sweat(?), saliva, nasal secretions (?) etc.  It possibly only takes one viral particle to infect you. 

Current fatality rates appear to be in the 60-90% range.  There is some concerns though about the “mixing” of the current Ebola strains, and just like the flu, possibly a renegade new strain appearing, that may be spread like the flu, easily, through respiratory secretions. 

The Reston strain (the Ebola strain that is spread like the flu through respiratory secretions…… it was found in at least one of the human researchers, but it caused no disease in the humans, but killed the monkeys) has been found in pigs (a known “incubator” for new flu infections that are then transmitted to humans) in the Phillipines, http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_02_03/en/ , and more on that here, http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/spb/outbreaks/qaEbolaRestonPhilippines.htm . 

For a general big grouping on viruses look here (Ebola is under Filoviridae, with Marburg Virus), http://virology.net/big_virology/bvfamilygroup.html .

It is clear that the Ebola virus is evolving, see http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07291401/Ebola_Zaire_Guinea_SL.html . 

I’m neither a virologist nor an epidemiologist, but it is clear from above that this virus does have the ability to spread, and rather rapidly at that.

Everyone should take the precautions you mentioned in your newsletter, learn to recognize the very simple signs of possible Ebola I mentioned above (bleeding eyes, bleeding nose), and take care to stay away from any such individual.  

And to be clear, when I say bleeding eyes, I mean some droplets of blood coming from the eyes, instead of clear tears.  This is by NO MEANS an absolute positive sign of Ebola, or any other disease, or the only symptoms that might occur in someone with Ebola (early signs of Ebola can include fever and body aches, which can occur in about a thousand other diseases as well including common cold), but is meant to be a sign that might enable someone to live through this epidemic.  

Another tidbit, Ebola virus has been found in semen 61 days after infection and transmission can occur in this manner, http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/,

more information here, http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/faq-ebola/en/

and other Ebola reading if one wants it.. http://govtslaves.info/ebola-virus-released-atlanta-sewage-treatment-plant/

…. I do not vouch for any of the above links.  Read it and gather information as you will.  One thing is clear, this disease is evolving as many viral diseases do, have some common sense, and prepare as you are able, but have no fear, which disables us all.

I apologize for the length.  Keep up the good work.

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