No, I have not read Tolstoy’s “War and Peace” cover to cover.  But that’s OK, because our discussion here is not about the troubles between Russia and France.  It’s the troubles of today and how things in the international stewpot work out in the age of swaying populations

Here’s the problem in a nutshell: Who do we believe when comes to the mess in Ukraine and how do we shade our investment decisions with the possibility of wider war in Eastern Europe?

It’s not a simple question.  But it is one of our own making.

This assertion is based on two simple facts.  The first being the operations of the US State Department which sided with the right-wing/ultra-nationalists in Ukraine back in December.  If you remember the famous cookie episode.

.The second Western gaffe came at an April press conference (that I happened to catch on RT live on FTA) television.  In that episode, the EU announced to a shocked Vlad Putin that they had designs on a “European Union that stretches from Lisbon to Vladivostok.”

Except for one small detail:  What Putin had proposed was not the absorption of government authority from Eastern Europe, but rather an autonomous region.  But in April, the (idiots) of the European Union claimed ownership of the idea  and it was to be their trade area, not a shared one.

It’s like have one driveway serve two homes.

Putin’s announcement of support was for the idea of a shared driveway.  The European response was (essentially) to claim not only superior use rights of the driveway, but to  erect toll booths and begin traffic enforcement.

With a history of European invasions, that got to be too much and it has driven Putin into a difficult spot, since every nation has its share of ultranationalists just like we have ‘em in the United States.

Back in April/May I hinted that wars don’t come overnight; they cast a long shadow before them.

Six months is a decent starting estimate from mid April, so we still have another month or two to run before the actual outbreak of hostilities should be apparent.  But in the meantime we are in now is what amounts to foreplay.

The specific reason for mentioning this now is that a high-ranking group of former US officials have sent a letter to Germany’s Angela Merkel arguing that Ukraine should (among other things) not be fast-tracked into NATO membership for Kiev.

From the Russian standpoint, that would be the equivalent of hiring a SWAT Team to patrol the “shared driveway” and given the millions who died in defense of Russia in the Great War (WW II) that’s not the way to go about promoting peace.

Doubtless, many of the “My country right or wrong” crowd don’t want to question the “offishul” Western narrative (fairytale), but when we read the bio of Victoria Nuland of our State Department, we catch her links to the same thinking that founded the Project for a New American Century – another colossal foreign policy disaster.  The invasion of Iraq and excessive emphasis on war-making over diplomacy (not to mention the regime change mantra) are a few of their previous outcomes.

It was the PNAC philosophy of regime change that led to ISIS, too, but of course we don’t see that much in headlines.  But a note from my consigliore on point seems about right:

Per our past discussion.   This article actually has solid links which detail the US involvement in building up ISIS.
I, and probably you, have read all this information over the past three years, but this brings it together all the bits and pieces into one linked piece.  For some reason I missed Seymour Hersh’s article this spring on this, which based upon his past work is probably pretty good, so I need to find it. 

The coming difficulty with Ukraine/Russia is well-described by US military professionals:  You reach a point in a pending conflict (while the preps and arms shipments are still in motion) that momentum begins to drive policy.

And that’s the point of this note this morning – to become acutely aware of the passing of the tipping point this fall where momentum in the EU and Kremlin will begin to run ahead of policy and common sense.  We’re almost there.

If it does, radiation from Fukushima will be the least of our worries,  An

If through some miracle the momentum is insufficient to light up World War III/IV, would it be asking too much of the  Changer in Chief to clean house at the State Department and come up with a policy team that doesn’t consistently lay the seeds of “next conflict” every couple of years?

You see, the major problem in the world today is economic rather than political in nature.

The European Union is a fiscal disaster and they’ve gotten stuck in “expand or implode” mode.  So, too, the US is in the same pickle. 

Absent the political will to attack the real sources of the world’s ills (like the offshore bankers that make untold billions on illicit arms sales (US and Russia compete head on in this arena, but let’s not forget how the bankster class facilitate tax avoidance for the elite/rich and corporations as well…), we’ll continue to reap the bitter harvest of agenda-driven half-think.

The only good I can see coming of it is a never-ending stream of lies from all parties (about wars, enemies, climate change, yada, yada) that will give the internet bleacher crowd a virtually unending stream of fodder well into the infinite future.

Disconventional Language

Got me!

Several readers (more awake than I was yesterday at 2:30 AM Pacific) clubbed me on using the word mute instead of moot.  Reader Marc down in Florida, for example:

You started today with 

“I’m not sure who will take down America:  Jihadists, hackers, Vlad Putin, or corporations.  But, one thing is certain:  The question is far from mute.”

Dollars to donuts, I bet you meant the last word to be “moot”!  Google gives 2 hits on “question is far from mute” but 357 on “question is far from moot”.

As usual, I’m enjoying your writing.  At the least it saves me time from scouring the corners of the ‘net for news that might actually affect my life.

Yes, I know the difference between “moot” (as in irrelevant) and “mute” (as in silent).  Alas, I meant silent as much as irrelevant.

Did I mention I have run out of coffee and will be picking some up today?  Absent the liquid jumper-cables, I confess that mute made sense up until the first of a dozen emails arrived.

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I’m not sure who will take down America:  Jihadists, hackers, Vlad Putin, or corporations.  But, one thing is certain:  The question is far from mute.

But, in all cases, the correct most pressing danger to America may be offshore bankers.  Let me explain:

Because the US markets are not open, because of the holiday, I’ll keep my remarks this morning short – and to the point (for a change ) – as we consider not just “news” events, but the larger context of what our shared future will look like.

Jihadists:  There have been a number of reports over the past week, primarily stemming from the Judicial Watch bulletin we covered in our Saturday Peoplenomics.com report for subscribers.

One thing is becoming clear:  Jihadists are looking forward to the kind of future once held for pirates:  Prison and perhaps worse.  England is making first moves here, proposing a ban on returning jihadists.

And (for a country unable to articulate a policy on point) we seem to be doing exceptionally well as the US-backed government of Iraq claims to have ended the ISIS siege of a Shiite Iraqi city of Amerli.

OK, why would I blame tax haven banksters for for terrorism plans against the US and genocide in the Middle East? 

Easy:  In order to continue in operation terrorism groups rely on MONEY and that’s something that has been mighty slow to sink in.  Including in the ME itself, although there are some signs recently that certain nations are beginning to connect checkbooks to terrorism besides US authorities here at home.

Hackers:  As you know, I wrote an e-book on the threat Internet freedom (Broken Web The Coming Collapse of the Internet) and except for the minor nit about how fast it is all playing out, the number of hacks is increasing and the threat to America grows with it.

Last week, we were hearing about how US banks had been targeted.

But it doesn’t stop there:  It also features such diverse projects as a full-on attack on Norway’s oil and gas business.

Oh, and should we mention all those nude pictures of celebs that we unleashed over the weekend?.

Hacking can be roughly divided into three camps:  Experimental, malicious, and criminal.  But underlying a lot of hacking is extortion and crime – all facilitated by what?

Secret, off-shore banks.

My single best argument against digital currency?  Hackers…would you trust them with more than milk money?

Vlad Putin:  The US  and Western allies recently imposed sanctions on Russia for its conduct in Ukraine and now, under cover of holidays, the Russians have moved up their involvement in Ukraine.

This is no longer just a “border war” – it has turned into something more with the sinking of a Kiev-loyal border patrol boat…which may be the first decisively engaged naval action of WW III if things continue to escalate.

Russia sanctions imposed by the West – designed to defuse and hold the status quo of Eastern Europe – have failed, in large part due to what greedy group of people?

Yes, the offshore bankers, once again.  Even as Australia prepares to tighten up on Russia banking escapades, it just means more shell companies will be moving more money for arms  through the wide-open branches of offshore banks.

Corporate Shell Games:  Yet another bombshell came out as the International Business Times reported that Microsoft was holding nearly $100-billion in cash offshore – an amount that could generate nearly $30-billion of US income tax payments.

Microsoft is far from alone, although saying (in effect) that everyone else is doing it is hardly the kind of moral leadership loyal Windows users are due.  Strict compliance with US tax laws and closing down offshore accounts would costly (no doubt) but corporations seem in no particular hurry to come clean about their offshore activities.

Many Americans are Guilty, too:  Although I am terrifically critical on the Obama administration on a wide range of strategic fails of epic size, including and especially the pending failure to maintain a border with Mexico, I’m honest enough to admit they are doing something right with regard to US nationals keeping money offshore and out of the taxman’s reach.

I’m no strangers to offshore finance.  I was senior VP of one airline that depended primarily on the tax-free banking industry.

Yet over time it has become clear that I was on the wrong team – but that was 30-years ago.

Today there is ample, and growing evidence, that tax havens are aiding, abetting, and facilitating everything from jihadists, to failure of diplomacy, to outright tax dodging, to in-your-face crimes like narcotics trafficking.

If America wans to continue the fine tradition to Labor Days in the future, it’s time to turn our guns away from Ukraine, the Middle East, and elsewhere.  Turn them instead on the well-heeled fellows in the Channel Islands, the ABC Islands, Turks and Caicos, and even Grand Cayman.

As long as “secret money” exists,  it isn’t just a threat to one nations’ freedoms.  It’s a direct challenge by the offshore elite to rational and democratic life on planet Earth.

Look through any book on modern history and behind many major scandals, you’ll find whom?

Yes sir:  The [effing] Banksters.

More after this…

            

The Workers’ Paradise?  Hahaha….

A few labor notes:  We can’t help but see how Hong Kong might not get additional freedoms after their Chinese masters took a pass on loosening things up.

As a result, protests are expected.  And if they turn violent, we’ll take that as continuing proof that China is more “Chinese elite friendly” than “worker-friendly.”

Of course, the working person’s outlook isn’t just dim in Chinese and its holdings – it’s a thorny problem throughout Asia according to an International Labor Organization story over here.

• Five out of 10 young workers in the region are self-employed.
• The average youth unemployment rate (relaxed definition) was 14.2 per cent. The lowest level was in Cambodia (3.8 per cent) and the highest in Nepal (28.9 per cent).

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Oh, boy!  Another one of those “bridge-the-generations” insights this morning that ought to make us all (subscribers, anyway) better investors and thus richer.

The insight came in the form of an email from a friend – who was upset that I covered the “team approach to job search” in Wednesday’s Peoplenomics report.  A kind of roadmap.

But my long-time colleague said no!  People of the Now need to stop texting and get out and hit the bricks to find a job – just as we all have..back in the day.

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For several weeks now, I have been telling you about the odd way that Dallas, Texas has been cropping up in our data as a “hot” word…particularly in the work done by Chris McCleary over at the www.nationaldreamcenter.com.

There, using the technology that Grady developed for our www.nostdracodeus.com. members of the public have been contributing to something I cooked up several years back called “The DreamBase” – a database of dreams.

As frequently mentioned, in Chris’ unique application of the technology, instead of looking at general language on the Internet for hints about the future, his DreamBots look at the linguistics within dreams.  Those linguistics scream Dallas.

And we’re in the process of adapting that to generalized language searches.

Break: Full Stop

Now the new development out this morning:

Judicial Watch has just posted an alert: “Imminent Terrorist Attack Warning By Feds on US Border”

A couple of key paragraphs here:

Specifically, Judicial Watch sources reveal that the militant group Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS) is confirmed to now be operating in Juarez, a famously crime-infested narcotics hotbed situated across from El Paso, Texas. Violent crimes are so rampant in Juarez that the U.S. State Department has issued a number of travel warnings for anyone planning to go there. The last one was issued just a few days ago.

Intelligence officials have picked up radio talk and chatter indicating that the terrorist groups are going to “carry out an attack on the border,” according to one JW source.  “It’s coming very soon,” according to this high-level source, who clearly identified the groups planning the plots as “ISIS and Al Qaeda.” An attack is so imminent that the commanding general at Ft. Bliss, the U.S. Army post in El Paso, is being briefed, another source confirms. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) did not respond to multiple inquiries from Judicial Watch, both telephonic and in writing, about this information.

While it would be horrific to see America’s southern border attacked from (and effectively by) Mexico – a fulfillment of our long-term reporting of the Low-Intensity-Conflict [LIC] with Mexico going hot – there are multiple reasons to expect that the “attack” on the border may not be precisely on the border but in a major population center where maximum body count and/or media impact could be developed.

Tactically, it would be an interesting move, too:  Dallas is much closer to Heartland America than El Paso.  Yet, there’s a large enough “pipeline” that runs drugs into Dallas and a illegal population trail to points north, that such an attack would have much more psychological impact than would be the case of an attack on El Paso or any other border town.

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(Gig Harbor, WA) While the nature of UrbanSurvival is generally serious, we do (now and then) actually tear ourselves away from the computer long enough to have contact with the occasional human.

Such was the case Thursday when my friend, the retired Major-fellow who I’ve known for  60+ years and I decided we would hit the local driving range to hit a couple of buckets and then wolf Chinese food and talk about the ‘old days in the ‘hood; growing up.

The first indication that the day would be strange happened when I asked at the front desk where the drivers were to rent.

“We don’t have drivers anymore.  People come in and ruin then in just a few days to a week.  So help yourself to all the irons you want, but no, sorry, no drivers.  You’ll have to bring your own…”

What the hell? 

A driving range with no drivers?

“Well, OK, where would I get a split-shot Americano tall?”

“We don’t have coffee, sorry.”

At this point, I should have realized that I’d flipped into an alternate Universe because EVERYONE has coffee in the Seattle-Tacoma area.

Oh, and every driving range is supposed to have drivers.  Otherwise, they’d be called iron ranges, would they not?

A warm-up swing, or two, and I was into it.  Borrowing the retired Major’s driver, and summoning that “muscle-memory” of mine, a quickly topped my first shot, sending it all of 50-feet out.

This was followed by a series of hooks, slices, and tops, that would have  been great B-roll for an old silent movie.

Meantime the retired Major stepped up to his plate (sounds better than mat, although that would be more accurate) – all the while insisting he hasn’t touched clubs in years, either.

“Hold it, Ure, something is going on here…”  The Little Voice In My Head (LViMH) was asking a question:  “How come if he doesn’t play, the grips on his clubs are all soft and comfy – like they’ve just come back from a pro shop?  Yours that haven’t been touched are all powdery and threaten to catch fire at any moment…but these are, well,  great…”

The r-Major’s third or fourth drive hit out past 200-yards, all the while he was telling me he hadn’t picked up sticks in years.

Say, where did that smooth back-stroke and fluid swing come from?  Hmmm…

I stood my matt, eyed the three-wood and decided to give it a try. 

After a slice, hook, ,slice, and finally one ball going out to 110 yards while making an odd spinning sound, my confidence was on the verge of returning.

Smack!

I topped it.

But what the heck?  The ball bounced about 30-feet in front of us, then again at 50 feet…going like a bat out of hell, but low.  A stealth golf ball…

Then it happened!

On the odd 5th bounce, or so, it went into a hole!  The course has a hole on it, about 50-yards out, designed for people to sharpen up their sand wedge and pitching tools.

My ball went in!!!! Holy Mother of Pearl!!!

My first-ever hole in one. 

I looked – for a good moment – taking in the glow of that first hole-in-one…and then asked the retired Major “Did you see that, RJ? A  Hole in one!!!”

I looked over at his mat and he was face down teeing up a ball.  “Uh…no…you…uh…what?”

“What do you mean what?  I JUST HAD A FRIGGING HOLE IN ONE.”

“Well, that’s good.”  And with that, he launched another out to the red flag at 200-yards with that smooth liquid swing…….

Thus ends today’s odd golf story.  The moral of which is what?

If you get sucked into playing this silly game, and do accidentally (or otherwise) get a hole-in-one, the sky will not part (the drizzle had continued through this), the people from Golf Digest will not be calling to see how you did it.

And if your luck is as good as Ure Luck, you best friend will be looking somewhere else at the moment your Personal Miracle Moment in Golf (PMMiG) shows up.

The saving grace to this is that now I know why drivers don’t last long enough at the “driving” range.

# # #

The Chinese food was good, but I had an upset stomach most of the night because I made the mistake of having pizza for dinner.  Pappy always warned me, as a boy, about eating foods from (nearly) opposite time zones.  Said it would cause indigestion….just like mixing the “grain and the grape” can have dire consequences.

Electric Airplane

You absolutely have to go read the article on the Experimental Aircraft Association website about a new electric airplane that has taken its maiden flight.

The plane will carry two people, climb at 1,000 feet per minute, has a one hour range with 30-minute reserves and can be charged in an hour, or so.

Meantime, an FAA announcement of possible interest:

On July 22, 2014, the FAA issued a Notice of Proposed Policy for the non-aeronautical use of airport hangars which clarifies compliance requirements for airport sponsors, airport managers, airport tenants, state aviation officials, and FAA compliance staff. To view the draft policy, go to https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2014/07/22/2014-17031/policy-on-the-non-aeronautical-use-of-airport-hangars. The comment period will remain open until September 05, 2014.

People who fly the (fine) Van’s RV series of planes might want to comment, lest too many people be able to say “I’m going down to the airport to work on my RV…” and not mean a high-performance aircraft.

(Anything compared to our old Beechcrate is a high-performance aircraft…)

Skydiving Adventures

Son George II sent this along as one of the luckier skydiving vids you’ll see:

G II now has his “coach” rating as he works up through his jumps… somewhere around 165 jumps now.  Seems to be serious about getting his teaching creds.

Correction

Long-time NASCAR fan Don sent this in about a story a while back……

GU,

As I’m sure you’ve now been told a 100 times, there was NO death at a NASCAR race this weekend! It was a “sprint car” race where a young driver was hit. NASCAR hasn’t raced on dirt since the late 50’s except for the truck series the last 2 yrs at ironically, Tony Stewarts dirt track.

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Thanks to this morning’s technical issue, which delayed this morning’s post, mwe have the luxury of looking at the markets when open.

Remember a couple of days back, we had a libretto (short plot summary) that suggested what we would see would include:

* Market high around August 26th plus or minus a week or two

* Run-up into the holiday week

*  Sell off into the act5ual weekend of the holiday because “investors” are really a cowardly lot, who run at the first sign of trouble because in their world, interest and profit is not determined by time and risk, but rather by time only.  If there’s risk involved, they head for this hills.

This morning, the nice, obedient market is doing exactly as scripted:

As of press time, the Dow is now nearly 100 points and it looks like the annual high may have been put in this week.

More importantly, however – on the technical side- is that the S&P 500 just made the 2,000 level.  If it doesn’t come back and hold well above the 2,000 level, this could be one of those cases where the market hits the lower side of a strong psychological level (S&P 2,000) and doesn’t muster the conviction to punch through.

Or, goes the other line of thinking, it’s not uncommon  for a market to hit a resistance layer, pull back and gather strength for a while, and then power through it.  Sometimes this striking of the underside can take 2-4 times before the final outcome is known.

The next three months are often the worst part of the year, so things should become amusing quickly.

Another factor to consider?  Gross Domestic Product data:has just been released:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 4.2 percent in the second quarter of 2014, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 2.1 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month.

In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 4.0 percent. With this second estimate for the second quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; the increase in nonresidential fixed investment was larger than previously estimated, while the increase in private inventory investment was smaller than previously estimated (see “Revisions” on page 3).

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

You might have thought that a 4.2% annualized increase in GDP would have powered the markets the other way (UP) but no, not the case…at least so far.  I still think we will move higher from here and this may be little more than position-reshuffling before the long weekend so yes, I am still in my highly speculative long position.

More after this…

Ukraine Going Hot

Earlier this week, I told you that Ukraine wasn’t anywhere near over.

Sadly, the headlines this morning are bearing our what our sources have told us – that both NATO and Russia are continuing to move men and equipment into place for a showdown, although each has been care to remain just below the “press threshold” which is both a good thing – and bad.

This morning things are back above the US press threshold with reports that a Russian armored column has seized a key city in the eastern part of what used to be Ukraine, but which is quickly becoming a suburb of Moscow.

Given that the Russians could back this play with a lot more horsepower over the weekend, maybe the market is getting worried that the US/West is getting caught flat-footed [again] in world affairs.

Russian Bank-Jack

All of the events in Ukraine add up to something else that should worry the hell out of US officials. Even the cookie monster at State might grok this, even if ‘strategic standoff blown” is incomprehensible.

By now, you have no doubt already seen the reports that Russian hackers have hit at least two US banks.

But here’s the interesting worry-point:  What if these hackers are merely setting up for a larger attack yet to come?  Suppose that Russia is set to launch a full-scale Blitzkrieg kind of attack in Ukraine.  Would it not make sense to time such an assault by wiping out as many Western banks as possible?

Oh, sure, payback for sanctions is one school of thought, but another is that this is the little war before the Big War.  And that’s probably another reason why the market turned chicken this morning.

You Mean They Weren’t?

Ah…the fine line between function and legal as Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt have formalized their relationship.

My question (that the non-financial press) doesn’t want to cover:  Does this mean they will be filing a joint return, now?  That’d be the real snooze angle to it.

Word from the Gar-Fish

Years ago, I used to occasionally appear with buds Pat Kelly and Space Young on the old KMET (LA’s) “Surf Report with a Beat” back in my George Garrett radio days.  (Ure wasn’t recall-friendly, I was told).  I be the GarFish…which was back when Mt. St.

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A super short report this morning due to technical issues…all of which have now been solved.

But the most interesting – and thought-provoking – email in  a long time came in yesterday from my friend “warhammer”  who is the retired military war gamer.

George,

The army is conducting an “intellectual exercise” that considers a future ‘mega city’ insurrection and how the military will deal with it.

<http://www.military.com/special-operations/2014/08/19/wargame-to-examine-the-fall-of-a-megacity.html?comp=7000024128179&rank=1>

While military leaders stress it is simply a simulation, the harsh reality is that a nation does not dedicate valuable time and resources to a scenario it does not consider to be plausible.

It also, in my educated opinion, indicates the national military command structure (the president, joint chiefs and national security team) consider the potential for such a situation a “real and present danger to their security.

The “war game,” against U.S. Citizens on domestic turf, anticipates an ‘alternate future’ in which Posse Commitatus (U.S. Law which prohibits the military from being used against the domestic population) will be suspended or repealed under the premises of safeguarding national security.

The ‘game’ synopsis does not clearly state whether the insurrection is initiated by foreign or domestic actors. The stated intent is to defeat the uprising and recapture the notional fallen mega city.

The results of war games often serves as the game plan for subsequent military operational doctrine. In the vernacular, the recommended doctrine emanating from these strategic games goes “on the shelf” for use by some future command structure.

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