Coping: Battle of the French Toasts

(Gig Harbor, WA)  OK, enough of the serious stuff.  We need a break…

When one of the biggest news stories of the week is that Apple has reinvented the watch so that it can put further in debt – and this is hailed as progress – it’s time we put our feet down and get back to food-binging because that’s one of the few pastimes that actually makes sense, anymore.

Our “binge” will happen Sunday morning.  And the weapon of choice will be French Toast.

In the rush to do this & that, I haven’t gotten around to describing chef-daughter Allison’s incredible French toast.  It’s French toast stuffed with a cream cheese/apple sauce filling – and it’s to die for.

The way it’s built seems simple enough:  You mix up the batter (heavy cream and a couple of eggs will do).  Then you gently cook one side of two pieces of bread.

As these come up to a light brown, you spread the “stuffing mix” on the cooked sides. Slap ‘em together and cook the soggy outsides.

The stuffing is whatever suits your taste portions of cream cheese (softened to room temp) mixed with applesauce and into this you put a dash of nutmeg – and maybe cinnamon.  By varying the spices, you can cover a good portion of the spectrum from dessert all the way over to near pastry.

Whew…toss in a few slices of ultra-trimmed bacon and some link sausage, some high octane coffee and OMG…what a fine combination of octane-rush and blood-sugar explosion with enough protein to moderate the crash later on.

If you have other fruits, I can see them working, too:  Peaches or cherries come to mind.  I’m not so sure about cantaloupe or watermelon…something with less moisture would be a better fruit choice, but I’m not the culinary school grad.

(I did mention that we’re foodies, right?  It’s just that Elaine doesn’t look the part so in an act of selfless chivalry,  I do my best to make up for both of us…)

I’ve made a note to ask Allison if she pre-spread the mix on dry bread and then dipped and cooked one side only…seems to me that would work, too…just depends how crispy you want the finished product. 

So that’s one “contestant” in my Battle of the French Toasts (BoFT) due Sunday morning.

The other is my old standby: Bailey’s French toast.

This is a single-layer French toast which is made (as always) with a base of heavy (whipping) cream and a couple of eggs and whatever you have in the way of bread.

What’s different is that you use a hair less heavy cream than usual and make up for the thicker dip by adding a shot or two of Baileys Irish cream to it.  Or, in my case, the cheaper imitation stuff; St. Brendan’s and Carolan’s work with minor taste differences. Cooked slowly, (and getting the middle above 170) may drive out the alcohol.

Next, as you dredge the bread in the batter, you dust the top side with some nutmeg and put this face-down in the frying pan.  Then a second dusting of nutmeg to the side that is face-up – and you then cook and gorge to your heart’s content.  It’s a binge-day and calories don’t matter.

One of these days, I’ve got a variant of this kind of French Toast:  In stead of making it with Baileys (a half shot of Frangelico is nice, too, just cook slowly and well so it tastes pastry and isn’t about the booze. 

Another one “on the drawing board” is to put in a shot or two of Hiram’s Chocolate Mint liquor instead of the Baileys (haven’t shopped for it for years).  This would be made possibly without the nutmeg, as an afer Thanksgiving of Christmas toast where instead of maple syrup, you’d use Hershey’s chocolate sauce and wash down with a hot buttered rum or high octane coffee and some chocolate-coated espresso beans…

Other liquors come to mind: A cherry cordial or (years ago, showing my age) San Martin used to make an apricot wine (Aprivette) that would interesting with either fresh apricot jam or perhaps a cherry jam on it…again cook slowly and well, it’s not about the booze.

The third French toast nominee is to get a big loaf of French bread the day ahead of time.  Since we’re going to be seeing friends up in Poulsbo Saturday, we will probably drop by Sluys Bakery where I’ve been fueling up the Scandinavian side of my DNA since I was 12 and just learning to row a boat around nearby Liberty Bay across the bay from downtown.  (That was more than 50-years ago…dammit.)  A picture snagged off this website will put you in the mood.

So in this third method, what you do is take 2-inch thick pieces of French bread, soaking them good the evening ahead of time and refrigerated overnight.

I’m not sure what this does, exactly, but the results  when baked the next morning in a 350 (or slightly quicker) oven, is something like a near bread pudding middle with a French toast exterior and OMG, the whole thing is good.  Nutmeg dust before cooking, or overnight, depending on your heritage, though I think chili peppers would ruin it. Dash of white pepper for zing? Hmmm…

Serving in all cases is with real butter and with real dark amber Canadian Maple syrup; Canada’s contribution to global obesity issues.  If you even think about putting that high fructose crap on this kind of art, I’ll be mighty disappointed in you.  Corn should be real, saved for breads, breading, and the last 90-days of cattle’s lives but certainly not for cooking, as I see it.

We don’t eat much sugar – and maybe that’s a reason why we’re in such good health and look 10-15 younger than our ages.  Vices like sugar, tobacco, and corn syrup can’t really be good for you.  No more than one tablespoon of syrup per piece of French toast.  The idea is to taste the mixed flavors, not mask the flavor in sugary sensations. OK, three tablesppons…

If you want to read an interesting take on healthy eating and how to stay young/fit, I can’t think of a better starting point than the article “The Oiling of America .”

In this view of things, the more artificial crap you put in your body, the more those fats tend to turn into plaque rather than being returned to use as useful energy – and the more chance you rack up to lose the stent lottery held by your cardiologist.

When I find my doctor is asking about ‘drilling rights” in my body, usually six-weeks of watching the fatty food intake, plugging in the treadmill for a half hour (or more) per day, drops things back to fit and healthy.  Sometimes I walk on the treadmill while it’s running.  But the meter doesn’t seem to care if I fudge, or not.

When I do this, the doc shrugs, pronounces me alive and skips the speech on how I might use a cholesterol drug.  To my thinking, they’re the hydrogenated fats of blood chemistry.

There’s a couple of things that come from reading Paleo Diet kinds of books; the main one is about eating the natural mix for where your genetics came from. 

For me?  Scotland means oatmeal. Denmark means cream and eggs…so oatmeal cookies must be health food!  Thank you, T-6 haplotype.

I could write about food and beverage endlessly.  The one Dark Side of cookery that I haven’t yet mastered is portion control.  I figure when I croak, it will be a self-solving problem.  I promise to drop my portions to zero calories immediately after dying.

In the meantime, the battle of French Toasts seems a fine way to spend a lazy Sunday morning – the winner will be the one that tastes most like a perfect pastry without so much sugary stuff on it. Judging could last an hour, or so.

Elaine (a long-time personal trainer who’d be a gym rat even now if we were staying put long enough) points out, one of my character flaws is that I live to eat instead of following her counsel which is eat to live.

Since she rarely reads this morning’s column, I’ll let you know how she does with that eat to live stuff when confronted with a properly plated trifecta of pastry-like winners.

Them Lying Mother-Frackers/ Review Processes

Thanks and a tip of the hat to my buddy Howard Hill who spotted this dandy report which you need to read if you live anywhere near oil or gas potential areas that the oil industry is licking its chops to frack open:

Proximity to Natural Gas Wells and Reported Health Status: Results of a Household Survey in Washington County, Pennsylvania

One thing I’d draw your attention to on the cover of this little 28-page report on the National Institutes of Health website:  Dates.

Received: 17 October 2013
Accepted: 20 August 2014
Advance Publication: 10 September 2014

Now here’s my pet theory:  When a report comes out with some highly damning information about how the runaway oil and gas biz is playing…

a small study (492 interviews) of self-reported health issues
significantly higher skin problems and lung problems for the group less than 1 KM from a fracked well and those >2 KM from same)

…it strikes me as highly suspect that it takes so long to get the word out..  We’re talking a 28-page summary, remember?  I’m probably too prolific (this would be a 2-3 day project max for a writer/writer).  Not the kind of thing that should take more than  a month to wend its way through the review process.

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Prepping for Retirement

(Gig Harbor, WA)  This morning we peel back the covers on one of our “secret missions” up here in the Northwest:  We’re trying to sort out whether to move back to this region to be closer to the kids, or just stay put in Texas and send the kids holiday airplane tickets. 

The Obama administration is driving some of this as they sit in waiting until after the elections with their potential November surprise on illegal immigration.  Transparent?  Forthright?  Yeah, right.  Just campaign BS sold to the sheep.  Save the heavy stuff till it’s too late to change your mind.  More practically? We eye the 357-mile distant border with Mexico with increasing suspicion because yes, we do Remember the Alamo and we do read terrorism alerts.

Given the complexity of modern life and the investment we have made in prepping it would be difficult if not impossible to duplicate what we have in the Texas Outback.  But now we’re putting numbers to it as we set about to size up terrorist rings, heart strings and purse strings in this morning’s discussion.  How to scale bug-in versus bug-out.

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The MH-17 Report / Ukraine Mess

30+ pages of report was issued by the Dutch this morning and no conclusions as to what actually brought down MH-17.

What the report did say was that the crash was the result of multiple highs-peed objects hitting the aircraft.

This is an incredibly frustrating story to try and piece together.  When I went to download the entire report, turns out it is in PDF form and they set the security settings to prevent curious reporters (like Ures truly) from plugging the document into Google Translate (or other newsroom tools) and that stinks.  Reporters are by nature “trust buy verify” kinds of people.

While the MSM “narrative” like this NY Times article go a long ways towards reporting what was released, the Dutch are keeping theirs report inaccessible fort widespread review by locking it down to where copying is not permitted, and that prevents full (and nearly instant) machine translations.

The root problem is the Dutch report doesn’t add much clarity to the situation. It was already an article of faith that it was not an aircraft failure.

Meantime, the Russians are bound to be upset with a new round of punitive sanctions on them from the EU and the military types on both sides will likely continue working weekends trying to gear up for any eventualities.

Economic Outlook, NoDoz Needed…

The NFIB report on small business outlooks is out:

August’s Optimism Index rose 0.4 points to 96.1 making it the second highest reading since October, 2007. The four “hard” measures (job creation plans, job openings, capital spending plans and inventory investment plans) were collectively unchanged, and the other 6 components added to the Index a bit to produce a modest gain. 

Toss is the continuing terrorism concerns, and the Ukraine tensions and the markets are in a sideways to down mode:  Dow futures are down about 8 and gold & silver show only lackluster interest.

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Coping: Trouble for Climate/Made-Up Industries

(Gig Harbor, WA) Yes, we’re up in the Seattle area. And (in what we can only take as a sure sign of climate change) it rained overnight. In the hinterlands south of Seattle of all places. (I speak in jest, of course.) Not rained like in Phoenix where there were floods this week.

Ah, Monday

(Gig Harbor, WA)  It was a marvelous weekend up here in the Pacific Northwest.  Not a care in the world since the sun was out, all the relatives were in marvelous form, and daughter Allison (the award-winning chef) whipped up apple sauce/cream cheese French toast Saturday that was incredible.

Dinner at the golf club with the other side of the family was great, too, especially the blow-torched prime rib.  Toss in a sci-fi movie festival and laundry for a lazy Sunday  and it is such a drag looking at numbers again, I can’t stand it.

But look we must and right out of the box the main thing to consider is that deflation is still running full steam.  The price of oil on the futures market was down in the $92 range – and that may explain why the seismic outfit that has been itching to get on our ranch to set some test charges hasn’t shown up yet. 

Oil prices being down means a) ISIS isn’t going to turn off oil, b) demand follow-though has been seriously muted by better fuel efficiency auto sales, and c) industrial consumption is more or less flat. 

Toss in last week’s employment data and the Fed better not be too quick to raise rates because that might set up a secondary recession.  So they’re back in the policy penalty box until the signs of recovery strengthen.

Which gets me to the first question of the week:  What IF the economy NEVER pulls out of the doldrums it is now in?

Put another way, what IF this is IT and the best the continuous printing can do is break-even but can’t jumpstart growth?

It’s more than just a theoretical answer:

As I’ve been muttering (under my breath) for a while:  The Fed may have all the levers in the world and they may be able to print-on-demand and keep the very rich in their chairs, but how about the little people that Senator Bernie Sanders was talking about over the weekend

The question on the table in coming months will be “Is America at some risk of going Anasazi and just walking out of the game because we’re working harder and paying more, only to lose ground (in terms of lifestyle and prospects generally) anyway?”

A week from Thursday, we’ll head back to the ranch and ponder that one deeply. I can’t help but wonder, though, if some of the reason why Ferguson, Mo. was such a flashpoint was because it was a rallying point for a lot of pent-up socioeconomic dissatisfaction. as much as a wrongful death protest.

If it was, will Eric Holder or the National Guard’s leadership be able to see it and tell it like it is?

California Remnants, Drought Ramping

The west coast drought isn’t just a problem in southern California.  It is so dry in Nicaragua now that people may end up eating more iguanas because of it

On our return to Texas, we may wander through NorCal a bit – if for no other reason than to see those lakes (or what used to be lakes) around Mount Shasta..  We flew over them about two years ago in our plane and the pictures at that link show things are even worse now.

We’ve been concerned watching this story develop, but it’s no surprise since we reported this to our Peoplenomics subscribers back in January of this year (Peoplenomics 644-B):

That 2013 was a record dry year is not enough to get people to thinking about relocation.  But another year, a serous lack of water continuing, and that could all change.

But the big picture is already shifting.  In a report this summer for the Hoover Institute at Stanford, Carson Bruno wrote that there was already a 2% net out migration in the 2004-2012 data:

“Looking at age, we see the red flag: individuals are coming to California in their early 20’s and not sticking around. We find that only college-age individuals see a net in-migration into California; all other groups witness a net out-migration, with the 40-to-54 age group — those in the prime of their professional careers — having the highest level of net out-migration.  Despite college age individuals experiencing a net in-migration, the drop-off in the 25-to-39 age group suggests that these individuals are not staying within the state, likely due to the high cost of living in California and/or the lack of employment. ”

With more “grays” looking for a hassle-free life, and with the threat of drought building, could that rate dramatically increase?

Yes. “

We are still looking at the data and will update it as available, but weather patterns do go through periodic oscillations.  As the Anasazi people know well.  It kicked them out of their lands and pueblos centuries ago and no, that was not due to global warming of the Gore sort.

Taxing “carbon” may be ridiculous, but a tax to help people relocate to more sustainable locations?  That makes sense, although I doubt truth in advertising will be the chosen approach on this.  It certainly hasn’t been so far.

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Coping/WoWW: With Target Color Bandwidth

(Gig Harbor, WA)  It has been a while since I’ve had one of my “teaching dreams” that come along every so often and give me pointers or something to ponder that’s worth sharing with you.

But the dream early this morning was incredibly interesting because it seems to distill a lot of human behaviors down into some very useful concepts. 

By useful, I mean it’s a wonderful tool for working out complex problems of artificial intelligence, logical system design, and it explains much of what’s going on in the world today in terms that are easy to understand.

This is hard to put into words (this kind of dream usually is) but I thought I’d give it a whack so maybe you can make some sense out of it.

The dream opens with me and an entity (aspect female, but not in a sexual way, more as just an identifier label) is showing me a series of colored boxes and was running through an explanation:  The “boxes” were appearing over a flowing beige curtain of some kind – but were floating in front of them a foot, or so.

“I’m showing you this somewhat backwards…”

The “teaching figure was saying while pointing to a series of symbols, just like a traffic light:

“The important concept to grasp it what we call (on this side) “Target Color Bandwidth” and you need to share it.

When they refer to “this side” I should mention that the teaching figure was from another reality.  Since I know from extensive reading into electronic voice phenomena (EVPs) that the “other side of life” (Death) involves, for many, ascension of the spirit part of humans to a “color domain” where colors and emotions blend, that this was more than just some “upset stomach dream” I was having.

It’s the dimension where “the blues” get real.

What you see is how the Game is being played now. 

We “play” the Game of Life through living pieces like you –and actually everyone.  We manipulate the outcome of the game by this process of target color bandwidth.  In other words, we set up how Life works by changing the “color” of your perceptions – and those in turn – drive you to do one thing, instead of another.

But pay attention  because I’m going to show you a trick you can use to seize power and influence and anything else you want.  How to play the Game very well.

Study this:

OK, sure, that looks like a table that lays out all the ways the colors can be arranged in a 3-times-2-times-1 tabular form.

It is.

We used to play the Game of Life very simply.  We sent in various teachers – which you call prophets – and had them hand out simple black and white decisions.  Laws we got handed down on mountaintops and the like.

We really enjoyed playing the Game this way, but as the Earth Game progressed, it became harder and harder to keep everyone on the same black/white absolute lines. 

One of the “rules” of this Game is that we can’t interfere directly in what you humans do.  So we send in our proxies, but their learnings get misinterpreted all the time.  That’s why religions are fighting each other instead of cooperating.  We tried to give the same messages.

That’s why we added the complexity to the game.  As our “pieces” –individual people- evolved, we have added additional choices to accommodate the complexity.

I’m not following exactly… you mean Life back in biblical times (and times of other prophets) ran out of effectiveness because Life got too complicated?

Yes, that’s it, more or less.  That’s why the six combinations of color are so important to pass on.

They can always be simplified.

This isn’t making any sense…

Just look at the color chart as I reduce it to simple black and white and you’ll see you how the hidden “right answers” appear… Yellow becomes white and everything else is black…

Hold it!!!  This means there are duplicates…The may be a way to deal with complexity but black — the ‘wrong answer”   — looks like it became much more likely.  What do you say to that?

There is no right and wrong as you know it…only intent. 

What you call evil wants to screw up your Game of Life by adding complexity, but our side agreed, knowing that no matter how complex the game would be, there would continue to be good players who would still be able to discern the simple good or bad of situations.

Well, this doesn’t make any sense and besides:  When you color-reduce to black and white printing, yellow usually comes out black on paper…

Didn’t I mention that evil is winning? Yellow is a color of light – yet Evil got it to print black on many printers…

Why do you think we’re tossing in a few hints here and there?

Some people will see this discussion and immediately understand how it works and see how reducing a multispectral choice to elemental black and white can be an incredibly powerful software tool.

Others will look at it and figure you’ve flipped out…Those would be the people who are impaired in their thinking to the degree that they have turned off awareness.  They’re not of much interest to us.  Like pawns glues to the board – immovable and useless.

When you look around things will become clear:  People are forming up like schools of fish in the game now; the aware people are congregating and the unaware are going “couch” – refusing to think about much of anything.

Good intends to win but in unexpected ways. 

This is a tool then?

Yes.  Of discernment.

Whenever you speak to someone, or have interaction with them, just keep in mind they may often present in a multispectral way, but we leave all the answers in plain sight for those who See.

And you call this what?

Target Color Bandwidth.

With that, the dream was over.  It was 1:52 AM and I got up and wrote a few quick notes about the dream to pass on.  I’d never thought of myself as a “target” game piece in some Cosmic match, but that’s the feeling of it.

Maybe you can ascertain what it means, but in a strange way it was comforting to learn that there are still “right” answers out there hidden in plain sight. 

Perhaps I’m just a tiring Game piece, but the old black and white was sure a lot easier, but maybe the tip will help.  For me, was a thought-provoking dream worth sharing.

Crudest Intentions

A note recently from Oilman2 is worth passing along:

If you think back, I told you last year that a lot of this shale oil had a less-than-rosy future. Well, here is a guy who timelines oil based on reading and dissecting everything released by publicly traded companies….

Link to Bloomberg story

I told you I thought we had 7-8 years, but that it depended on oil price.

If we creep up to $150, then economies might survive. A shock, and it leaves no economic adaptation time. But either way, to sustain oil production expenses worldwide, oil prices MUST rise. If they do not, then there are less and less economics. This is why the majors have been buying their own stocks and drilling very little the last 6-7 years…

Oilman2

This is a terribly thorny investing problem:  The “perfect play” when we look at the results of person investing in 30-years (should I still be here at age 95, lol) may be have been to play the metals, bail out of gold and silver a year ago, gone to cash, and then went oil takes out $90 on the down side, load up prime oil stocks.

Not just any oils stocks, though:  Ones carefully screened for conventional reserves, not shale.

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Sunday Special: Dollars Versus Sense

This is the kind of thing that would normally show up in ours Peoplenomics subscriber reading, but it’s of broad enough interest, you might want to read it whole as time this weekend permits.

It’s from Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.  Yes, he’s a self-described socialist, but no, that doesn’t make him wrong – and here’s why:

As I’ve been writing about for more than a dozen years now, there’s a titanic battle going on between good and evil.  One aspect of that fight is the concentration of the world’s wealth into fewer and fewer hands while the ultra-rich have now got their hands on the neck of government so tightly that we might as well put government policies up for bid on eBay.

Between  the special interest groups of the One Percenters and the K Street Mafioso’s – the lobbying/influence buyers – socialist Sanders is one of the few talking common sense. 

From his website:

With the wealth gap in the United States growing and greater already than in any other major country, Sen. Bernie Sanders on Saturday called for a progressive estate tax on multi-millionaires and billionaires.   “A nation will not survive morally or economically when so few have so much while so many have so little. We need a tax system which asks the billionaire class to pay its fair share of taxes and which reduces the obscene degree of wealth inequality in America,” Sanders said in a speech to the Vermont AFL-CIO annual convention in South Burlington, Vermont.

The growing wealth gap in the U.S. is worse now than at any time since 1928, the year before the Great Depression began. The top 1 percent of Americans own more wealth than the bottom 90 percent. The richest 400 Americans have amassed more than $2 trillion in wealth, a sum greater than all of the assets of the bottom 150 million Americans combined.  One family, the Waltons of Wal-Mart fame, owns more wealth than the bottom 40 percent of Americans.

While the rich are becoming richer, more Americans live in poverty today than at any time in our nation’s history.  Half of all Americans have less than $10,000 in savings. We have the highest rate of childhood poverty – 22 percent – than any other major country.

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A New Approach to Strategic Investments

(Gig Harbor, WA) My note (Coping: Paint-balling the Internet) Friday reminded me that as smart as we like to think we are, when it comes to sizing up new technologies, we’re actually not that smart.  As evidence, I’d pointed to the numerous companies that various researchers have proposed will be the modern analogs to Radio Corporation of America during it’s 1919 inception through the end of World War II.

As discussed Friday, looking at the analogy between that new communications medium Radio in the 1920’s and our more recent familiarization with the full-spectrum of networked communications (e.g. text, hypertext, texting and Big Data) we don’t seem to really have a firm grip on how to best assess and invest in the emerging Big Data world.

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A Note from Our “Continuous Improvement” Dept.

With a break from researching tomorrows www.peoplenomics.com report, I finally came to a punch list item many readers have asked for: As of this afternoon when you click on one of the daily update posts (but not on the home page) you should see a “print friendly” button. With Internet Explorer it will be at the top of the posts on the right and when using Firefox it will be at the bottom.

As Expected, Jobs Improve…But Not Too Much…

Hot off the pixels from the Labor Department:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services and in health care. Household Survey Data In August, both the unemployment rate (6.1 percent) and the number of unemployed persons (9.6 million) changed little.

Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons were down by 1.1 percentage points and 1.7 million, respectively.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates in August showed little or no change for adult men (5.7 percent), adult women (5.7 percent), teenagers (19.6 percent), whites (5.3 percent), blacks (11.4 percent), and Hispanics (7.5 percent). The jobless rate for Asians was 4.5 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier

Sound good?  Well, hold on.  We need to drill down a bit.

First:  The labor participation rate actually dropped back to 62.8% from 62.9% last month.

What’s more, the labor force shrank by 64,000 people.  Was there a half-Rapture I missed?  (Not that I’d be surprised by that…)

Of these jobs, 142,000 new jobs fully  102,000 were “estimated into existence” by the CES/Birth-Death Model.

The number of people actually working was up a scant 16,000 and (is this fun, or what?) the U-6 long-term unemployment rate dropped from 12.2% last month to (just?) 12.0% this month.

Of course, what that means is that only the richest 10% of Americans have seen  their real incomes rise under the Changer’s regime.  The whole bloody-awful mess is over here, but check out this snip:

Real mean family wealth remained flat between 2010 and 2013. In 2013 mean wealth was $99,200 for the lowest income group, $380,600 for the middle income group and $3.3 million for the top income group. From 2007 to 2010 all groups experienced a decline in mean wealth. The lowest income group had the largest decline.

Sound like “The Rich get richer and the poor…well, that’s US…?”

Which means we’ve all been working our asses off to do what?  Maybe break even.  Average wages for the month were up 6-cents an hour.  Average work week is stuck at 34.5 hours, so the average increase in pay was  (you’ll love this) $2.07.  don’t spend it all in one place, sport.

Bet that makes you want to get up and go hump-it for 60-hours next week, on two or more jobs, doesn’t it?

Remember what researchers like Joseph Tainter have warned:  Complex civilizations (not sure we qualify, though) tend to disintegrate when the marginal rate of return on increased effort falls below zero.  now, go read that Fed report and tell me where you are…

Oh…don’t check your calendar:  The housing mess melted in 2008 and here are are (how many years later) and it’s still just talk about reforming LIBOR.

Can’t rush into change, now, can we?  Gotta keep them bankster fellows rich and rolling in it.

Quick – look surprised.

More after this…

              

Selling “Coalition”

The US has been the world’s “cop” for a long time – and it’s not an inexpensive project. 

By my back-of-the-envelope calculations, we could dramatically reduce the balance of trade problem by simply slapping a “US Defense Tariff” on all goods sold in the USA. 

Say you’re Europe, for example.

Most people don’t know that Germany didn’t pay off the last of its WW I debt until 2010.

Then there’s the matter of money due from Iraq following the Gulf War.  As Wikipedia reports:

After the Gulf War, Iraq accepted United Nations Security Council resolution 687, which declared Iraq’s financial liability for damage caused in its invasion of Kuwait. The United Nations Compensation Commission (“UNCC”) was established, and US$350 billion in claims were filed by governments, corporations, and individuals.

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Coping: Paint-balling the News

The week’s last deep public ponder is not about economics, but about a phenomena that I think of as “paint-balling the news.”

Here’s the way it works:

A story breaks – something with huge emotional content like the tragic events in Ferguson, Missouri in the Michael Brown shooting case.

The events are slowly (and unevenly) reported in the mainstream media, but as is so often the case, there are seemingly deliberate spins and twists of events that appear almost immediately and continue on into the future for some period of weeks, or months.

This is what I think of as the “paint-balling” part:  A few facts are released (but not in depth and this leads to speculation).  And then people start to “pile on” (sort of like paintball) and suddenly the whole country seems to become partisans in a social reaction to a news story.

In columns here, I have referred to alleged injuries sustained by the Ferguson cop who was the apparent shooter in the case.  But that quickly brought out name-calling.  So let’s see what we can piece together about the alleged injury to the police officer involved.

First, we hear from the police chief in Ferguson that the officer received injuries.  Later reports from credible local media evolved to facial injuries.

But over the past week, or so, if you listen closely, you can hear the familiar Splat! of the trolls who “paint-ball the news” in an effort to press their own agenda.

It’s at this level that the alleged photos of the officer which turn out to be (again allegedly) of a Moto crosser begin to cross the net.

And next thing you know, the (alleged/concocted) photos are being denied at places like Snopes.com and the next thing you know, public opinion flips around so that anyone who mentions (alleged) injuries to the police officer is now a hopeless racial bigot.  The picture hoax blurs with the official reports.

The next thing you know, I’ve got an email inbox filling with hate mail for referring to the (alleged) injuries of the officer.

As you can see, the “paint-balling” of the news has really kicked in over the past  couple of weeks.  The police chief says the cop was injured, some local St. Louis area media report facial injuries that MAY involve bone damage, but no, that alleged photo was (reportedly) fake and that’s one reason I don’t try to get into details after the fact.  We’re in a kind of data gap.

I prefer to wait for as much data as possible.  But even here, we have a serious problem – one that makes paint-balling the news so easy:  Officialdom is often inexcusably slow  and not very forthcoming about pertinent details of the case.

While the police chief says there were injuries, the official extent hasn’t been made clear unless I’ve missed it.  Which is a possibility.

This opens the door to the paint ballers and trolls who have now smeared the story into a widening camp of partisans, rather than thoughtful citizens who are taking the “Show us the data” moderate approach.

To be sure, there is something wrong with the racial composition of the Ferguson police force and that’s fair game for Eric Holder and Justice to be looking into.  However, my point in an earlier column this week is that when surrounding jurisdictions get pulled into the mix, they shouldn’t be limited to St. Louis County, Missouri:  They should be applied uniformly coast-to-coast.

Otherwise, what wells up is the idea that if you want a police department to be reviewed as to whether it reflects the racial composition of the law enforcement area, all you need is a number of nights of rioting and here come the feds.

The problem becomes like pixilation in computers:  The picture may look OK when viewed from across the room, or at the State level, but if you zoom in enough, there will be increasing variances as you soon in (like Ferguson’s apparent force composition).

Question:  Does the racial composition of a police force come down to the state, county, city, or precinct/ward level?

Obviously, this is not something you can’t look up in the Constitution.  That was written back when only land-owners were considered worthy of voting – something that today would make banks the largest ultimate property owners, I suppose.

I’ll leave it to the legal scholar readers to comment on this one – it’s over my pay-grade.

# # #

Ferguson isn’t the only episode of “paint-balling” the news.

The MH-17 preliminary report is due out next Tuesday and the “paint-balling” blur of this one has mostly smeared any chance of hard analysis of what to expect.

The gov-trolls and many others go with the idea that Putin is all bad and that it must have been Russia that show down the jetliner and killed all those people.

But the Russia-friendly media maintains it was a stealth/off radar Ukrainian jet (though made in Russia) that shot down the plane.

Off on the sidelines are hopeless data junkies like me who ask other questions (What the hell was the plane flying over a war zone for?) and it’s here that derelict officialdom pops up again.

Unless that is addressed in the preliminary report, MH-17 will continue being paint-balled on the net.

When I last checked the news budget for Tuesday, no press conference was planned to accompany the initial findings on MH-17, so we’re braced for further “paint-balling” of the  story as early as mere minutes after the press release hits.

Absent actual facts, who need’s ‘em?  There’s really not much law (and even less responsibility) on the internet.

About the only useful purpose that such paint-balling to come will serve is to indicate who holds the upper hand in press manipulation:  NATO which is Kremliphobic, or Putin’s posse  is paranoid that anything coming east from the Danube is a Western attack.

That’s the makings of a Death Dance.

# # #

Take any conflict in the world today and singular events become paint-balling targets.  The Gaza-Israel mess is another fine example.

It leaves us with an  uncomfortable feeling that while the internet has done a tremendous amount of general good in terms of education and allowing people to go looking for facts on their own, there is a growing problem of paint-balling.

In many ways it is similar to the problems of radio in the 1930’s before the Communications Act of 1934.

Radio had its analog to the paint-ballers of the ‘net.  One might argue that the case of 1930’s Catholic radio activist Charles (father) Coughlin is something of a prototype for today’s paradigm:  (From Wikipedia)

Early in his radio career, Coughlin was a vocal supporter of Franklin D. Roosevelt and his New Deal. By 1934 he became a harsh critic of Roosevelt as too friendly to bankers. In 1934 he announced a new political organization called the National Union for Social Justice. He wrote a platform calling for monetary reforms, the nationalization of major industries and railroads, and protection of the rights of labor. The membership ran into the millions, but it was not well-organized at the local level.[1]

After hinting at attacks on Jewish bankers, Coughlin began to use his radio program to issue antisemitic commentary, and in the late 1930s to support some of the policies of Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini.

It was this kind of (then) “new media” uprising that may be expected any old time on the ‘net.  Which side, or which agenda is promoted, will likely matter less than the specifics of policy that are likely to follow.

While the US Army is worrying (at the doctrine level) how to worry about a mega-city uprising, sooner or later it will dawn on policymakers that just as slapping limits on media in the Great Depression made sense  in the lead-up to WW II, so too we might see similar logic applied today in a run-up to WW III.

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Some Early Job Numbers

While we await tomorrow’s federal employment numbers (look for the rate to maybe drop a 10th), we have some early job number previews out this morning:

ROSELAND, N.J. – September 4, 2014 – Private sector employment increased by 204,000 jobs from July to August according to the August ADP National Employment Report®. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by ADP®, a leading global provider of Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

Also to be considered is the Challenger Job Cut report:

Planned job cuts announced by US-based employers totaled 40,010 in August, a 15 percent decline from the 46,887 planned layoffs reported in July, according to the report released Thursday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

The August total was 21 percent lower than the same month a year ago, when 50,462 job cuts were announced. This marks just the fourth time this year that the monthly total was lower than the comparable period a year ago.

Despite this trend, job cuts for the year are down slightly from 2013. Through August 31, planned job cuts total 332,931, which is 4.0 percent fewer than the 347,095 cuts announced between January and August of last year.

The problem for the market tomorrow walk be how to read it:  If employment picks up too quickly, it may embolden Janet Yellen and the Fed to bump up rates and that would be bad.

Nice thing about economics?  Even good news is bad (and bad news is good)… Dow futures are up 35…

Economic MiracleGro:  Saved by Auto Sales

The kind of fertilizer behind the headlines is probably not of the same nifty spray-on genre as that fine plant food, being more likely of a more bovine source, but once again we see how Auto Sales are one of the major pillars holding the economy together.

In fact, this is the highest level of sales since 2006, reports the International Business Times.

Want to read something interesting from current Energy Information Administration statistics?

Yes, that’s right…looks to me like current gasoline consumption is about 86% of what it was last year.  And that might explain why the price of crude oil has not gone skyward.  Doggone high mileage cars, huh?

Crude this morning on the futures market was hovering just over $95…which means, methinks, that this is not going to be a big year for summer travel.

Reno Ascending

The article in Forbes about the expected announcement of the new Tesla Gigafactory there is worth reading.

Particularly if you’re into play real estate.  More water than Denver, the gaming industry, and not too far from Tahoe…we’re likely to roll through there later this month on our way back to Texas…

With all these car sales, though, we have to wonders how Tesla will fare in the mass market.  As always, the old crossing the chasm problem for marketing.  Made easier by the true believer/early adopters who are huge fans…

More after this…

           

Hiding the Kids

Looks like the Obama administration is not going to give congress specifics about where their borderland wunderkind at being housed.

For an administration that used to wrap itself in the word “transparency” we see this as yet another ,[three letter word of your choice; mine starts with an L].

NATO Hot-Talk

Look for terms like illegal annexation and barbaric killers as the NATO meetings are underway today.  The annex action issue is, of course, Ukraine and the barbaric killers is ISIS.  Further comments on the Ukraine situation in this morning’s Coping section.

# # #

You might circle next Tuesday on your news junkie calendar:  That’s when the first official take on the MH-17 crash over Ukraine is due out.  The internet has been full of speculation about what happened…everything from catastrophic engine failure to gunfire from a Ukraine aircraft to a Russian missile (under whose control is debated, too).  But, whatever it is, it’s sure to heating things up around Ukraine next week.

Ferguson Fallout: Fishing?

We read with interest how the Justice Department is launching a major investigation into the Ferguson, Missouri police department on a whole laundry list of issues.  This follows the shooting death of Michael Brown that touched off rioting.

Missing from much of the press coverage is mention that the officer involved in the case was apparently seriously injured (broken facial bone structure) in events leading up to the shooting.

To the thinking observer, the announcement of such a broad inquiry may hint that the Justice Department may not have a specific (or weak) case with the officer, so they’re going after the whole department.  This notion is further reinforced by descriptions that the probe will include other departments in St. Louis county, as well.

Pandemic: Looking Ahead

Keep an eye on Ebola for this fall and dragging into next year as the WHO says the situation continues to spiral out of control in Africa.

Prepping for sequential shut-ins in the future is not an absurd idea and there’s plenty of lead-time.

Climate Change Debate

OK, here we go – again.  This time there’s an Oz report that the growth in sea ice is not proofd of climate change.  If I may, one snip here and some opinion.

The snip:

Dramatic changes in temperature, sea level and extreme weather around the world are proof enough the planet is warming, they say; the only question is how these changes affect the Antarctic as they ripple through the climate system.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/antarctic-sea-ice-growth-does-not-negate-climate-change-scientists-say-20140903-10bon6.html#ixzz3CLoGzbAC

Well, hold on there, buckos and buckettes…

There’s a fair case to be made that the Earth is actually a large “matter condenser” which converts energy (from the Sun) into new matter and that is what grows planets (besides gravity).  And since we know people who are in the submarine service, we hear that the undersea topology is changing and leads us to an explanation of sea level rise that doesn’t get much press:  Growing undersea volcanoes.  Just thinking out loud here.

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Serious Coping: With Life in the Simulation

Just as Rod Serling’s famous Twilight Zone featured an odd intersection of “mind and reality” so too this week, we’re developing a keen appreciation for the intersection between “real” life and video game and computational simulations.

The situation in Ukraine is just too damn reminiscent of a 1980’s Mac video game Balance of Power

If you haven’t played it, the Wikipedia summary lays it out this way:

The goal of the game is simple: the player may choose to be either the President of the United States or the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, and must lead the chosen superpower for eight years, seeking to maximize “prestige” and avoiding a nuclear war. Each turn is one year long; at the beginning of each year, the player is presented with a set of incidents and crises in various countries around the globe, and must choose a response to each one. Responses may range from no action, to diplomatic notes to the other superpower, to military maneuvers. Each response is then met with a counter-response, which may vary from backing down to escalation. The player then gets a chance to initiate actions, and deal with the opponent’s responses.

This core mechanic is similar to that of Bruce Ketchledge’s 1983 game Geopolitique 1990, published by SSI. One difference from the earlier game is how negotiations are resolved. In both games, backing down in a negotiation results in a loss of prestige, which will reverberate politically. Likewise, in both games brinkmanship may result in a global war. In Geopolitique, such wars were actually fought in-game, after which the game continued.

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