I bet you don’t know what Convexcatious Economics are, do you?

Done feel bad, Tonto:  I just made it up.  Has do with with an odd state of simultaneous convexity and concavity of formerly partial-workable mathematical hieroglyphics (mined from thin air) used by quants.  Some of which should be starting to seize-up now.

And therein lies this morning’s grief counseling session as the Dow futures point down 135.  (Don’t call it the LONG GRINDER DOWN yet, but we are moving that way a bit.)

One of the big discussion points on the net today is the little matter of Janet’s talk tomorrow with the House banking folks, which will be followed with her talk with the Senate banking types on Thursday.  Re-runs are a pernicious effect of capitalism.

Tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report will be especially interesting.  Not only should we have a look at the pre-game speech around 8:30 tomorrow, 7:30 Central, but if conditions warrant, we may go through and do some analysis. 

Like the days when the Housing data from Case/S&P and whoever hits, it’s possible we will have a two-parter for subscribers.  Though I avoid actual work like the plague.

But that’s not the biggie. 

The biggie is this problem Elaine and I have been struggling with – and I know we are not alone on this – a subscriber asked for a discussion and simple model.

I won’t get into too much detail here but the problem is simply stated this way: 

If you believed that we were going into the summer of 1929 – and remember the market hit its high in September of that year – would you sell everything and go to cash stored in government bonds, and wait out the two to four years for a good bottom to be in, and then move into that dream home which would be for sale at about 17-cents on today’s dollars?

Our problem, out here on the ranch in East Texas, is “Where would we go?” 

We were cruising through a bunch of homes on www.Trulia.com  yesterday asking the same  question as before:  If the world is going to get really, really ugly, do we want to be on 30 paid-off acres with low taxes (road issues aside), or do we want to be in an urban area where there will be gobs of people, some of whom many not be inclined to “play nicely with others” if you follow.

Anyway, it’s a hell of a topic…and we’ll get into the models and thinking on that tomorrow on the www.peoplenomics.com side of things.  Subscription details above and we have an extremely high satisfaction rate because people can ask common sense questions (like this one) and we kick things around and sometimes come up with cool ideas. 

I mean besides being in cash or short with out Aggregate Index models and such since December or early January, depending on how you use the model.

Which circles us back to the problem this morning:  I mean other than going back to bed and just waiting for the Fed boss to chat up Congress tomorrow.

It will be the end of the week before the titans of Asia are back on their usual schedule because of the fire-monkey Lunar New Years (I know, you’re thinking “Aren’t fire-monkeys something that come flying out of the butt after extreme spicy food? “ No…this is a Chinese calendar deal…).  But volatility is in the bag for the rest of the week, seems to me.

The futures are looking to open down a bit. (-135 is now a bit.)  About the only real news items driving today seem to be that the National Federation of Independent Business report is out:

After Modest Gain Last Month, Small Business Optimism Takes a Stumble

NFIB Survey shows small business owners wary of future economic conditions.

A couple of highlights from the report, if I may?

About a quarter of the survey respondents (which are small businesses) were planning to make capital expenditures.  But on the flip side, the percentage that actually expect the economy to improve was down 21%. 

But there were 29% more with job openings.  Offsetting this, though the earning trend was down 18%. 

You see how this goes, right?  Here is something bad, but over here is something good, but wait!  Here is something good  but there is something bad.  Goes back and forth and that’s when sometimes a headline as a thought summary actually does work, unless you happen to be an NFIB member and can compare your company with others…  In the meantime though, details are over here if you need them for a school report or for something to “wow” the peeps in the conference room when you talk about “Gee, how are we going to increase sales when the economy sucks wind?”

See where we are??  Yes, we have finally arrived at the first legit point of this morning’s ramble: Does the Fed really have the legal power to take rates negative?

There’s a marvelous Bloomberg piece over here which is wondering much the same thing.  What they have some to is “Fed May Lack Legal Authority for Negative Rates: 2010 Memo.”

Sorting through the Fed mess right now is almost hopelessly complex unless you know what the hell an IOER is (the Bloomberg story didn’t cover this in detail):  It’s the rate the Fed pays as Interest On Excess Reserves.

What will the Fed do?  I mean come on!  they have had almost six years to study the 11-page memo over here…and someone besides me may be wondering “How do you raise rates on the one hand – the touted Fed hike – while going to negative rates out the back door without everyone seeing what the Fed is doing as a HUGE PONZI  deal?”

Granted, you won’t have six years to figure it out, but the 11 pager is over here.  About the time you grok to what’s hap’nin, the Fed will have danced past the Fools on the Hill with Janet leading and you’ll be late to the party once again.

That’s OK; we’re going to help.

The guts of the 2010 Fed memo is on Page 7 which says (in part, but this is what matters):

“Legal and Practical Obstacles for Setting the IOER Rate Below Zero There are several potentially substantial legal and practical constraints to implementing a negative IOER rate regime, some of which would be binding at any IOER rate below zero, even a rate just slightly below zero.  Most notably, it is not at all clear that the Federal Reserve Act permits negative IOER rates, and more staff analysis would be needed to establish the Federal Reserve’s authority in this area.  In addition, the Federal Reserve computer systems used to calculate and manage interest on reserves do not currently allow for the possibility of a negative IOER rate, although these systems could be modified over time if needed.18  Moreover, if negative IOER rates were to pull Treasury bill yields into negative territory, the Treasury would encounter difficulties because it cannot accept negative rates at its auctions, although presumably it could modify its systems as well.  Finally, as discussed further below, at sufficiently negative IOER rates, DIs might opt to shift a significant quantity of their reserve balances into currency.

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For a good while I have been writing you the occasional note about what it’s like to age.  Although I am not keen on the idea, it certainly beats the alternatives.

In the past, we have explored different additives and supplements like L-Arginine, and what’s the best vitamin I have found and so forth.  Stevia in the tea and so forth.

A couple of updates as we do a drive-by of these this morning:  I have been using Source Naturals L-Arginine L-Citrulline Complex, 240 Tablets-1000mg which seems to be a very good energy-booster. No change on that one.  Ditto the best vitamin I have found so far:  NOW Foods Adam Superior Men’s Multi, 90 Softgels. 

Not that Elaine every doubts my judgment (she still gets in the airplane with me driving, right?) but she did a whole passel of research on her own and ended up with (look surprised here) the female version of the formula I take –  which has some lady-stuff in it and is under the Now Foods Eve, Women’s Multi Vitamin, Softgels, 180-Count brand.

There are a couple of other things that seem to optimize me:  I am a huge fan of Source Naturals Huperzine A, 200mcg, 120 Tablets but my buddy up in Gig Harbor, who will be coming down here for about 10-days in April thinks that they shouldn’t be used all the time.

On the other hand,  there have been some really savory research papers and they all seem to point to the same thing:  Huperzine A does seem to help the brain function better…and I will leave it to you and your doctor to figure out what the right period of use should be.  (Readers have suggested I need more brain function, lol.)

Now, this is not to say that Huperzine A is the only show in town when it comes to brain enhancement.  There are several others that I should mention in passing.  Now Foods Soy-free Phosphatidyl Serine Tablets, 150 mg, 60 Count might be worth a try along with some of the more conventional anti-aging of the brain supplements…Gingko Biloba comes to mine.  So does coffee.

Another one that I take rather religiously is NOW Foods L- Carnitine Tartrate 1000mg, 100 Tablets.  Here’s a 2002 article off the PubMed government database with some thoughts on how it may help after exercise  and this one on general cardiac assistance.

Here’s a PubMed article out just this month that explains how a moderate carnitine deficiency makes myocardial injury more dangerous (if you happen to be a lab rat).  So, even though I don’t think of myself as a rat, there seems to be some good for the heart and possibly brain from this stuff.

And, let’s not leave out my life-long buddy’s recommendation to me on Rhodiola Rosea, which is now in the mix.

REMINDER:  This is NOT healthcare advise.  Talk to your doctor before “owning and playing with your own personal walking/talking chemistry set. “

Eventually, though, we are going to get to the point of this morning’s discussion. 

Namely, I am back on kelp pills now.  Not a lot, just one per day.

A little discussion is in order.

The other day, a kindly reader suggested that I look up something called “pulse pressure”.  Turns out (and have fun running this down) that if pulse pressure (the big number minus the little number) is greater than 50, or 60, it is a better indicator later in life of heart problem potential than blood pressure..

Since I put my numbers in the column, the reader said my “60” was a little on the high side and maybe I should do some additional reading.

A bit of family history here.  My dad’s side of the family has always high very low pulse rates.  In fact, when my dad was recovering from a spinal fusion in the 1960’s (an occupational hazard of being a fire fighter and running into a burning building with 120 pounds of hose on your shoulder with absolutely no warm up) the nurse at the old Seattle General work him up and asked him if he was alive.

“Well, yeah…I was asleep, though…”

His pulse had dropped to something like 43 and they seemed concerned about it.

My resting pulse, when I am not augmenting with vitamins just right, tends to drop way, way down, too.  It was common of one of my aunt’s to nearly faint after sitting a while…takes the heart a number of seconds to ramp up from under 50 to a useful 65-70 without getting dizzy.

So there I was reading about bradycardia  (slow pulse rate) because when I am in a serious writing mode, I go into what I describe as something of a “writer’s trance.”

My breathing gets deep, the heart slows down.  I mean 52-55…and for me, that has been “the zone” for a long time.

What was going on?

After a couple of hours of reading, it became clear (at least to me) that there might be something like a sub acute iodine deficiency at play.

Now, I want to say this again:  This is absolutely not something to mess with unless your doc is onboard ahead of time – it’s not proper to tell him about it during an ER visit if you follow.

But here’s the point:  I went through some of the symptoms of the bradycardia and iodine deficiency and it was I found myself saying “Hey!  That’s ME!!!”

Turns out that a LOT of people don’t get enough iodine.  And, if you look around the web, you will find there are many, many discussions about it.

Today…after being on this slight iodine enhancement with one Kelp pill per day, I am seeing a change in my heart rate and BP.  As of earlier today it was 115 over 75 which is a pulse pressure of 40.  But even more significant to me, my pulse rate was up to 71 resting, instead of the low 50’s….

Hot damn!

This got me into a discussion with Elaine, since she has been shy on iodine, too.  (She’s convinced that a shot of Glenlivit (12) or Glen Fiddich (15) helps her to feel good.  And who would argue the point?

My next experiment will be with an experiment I found over the course of my travels around the web.  Has to do with buying some 2% iodine solution and making a circle of the tincture on your stomach.  The “Equipment” for the experiment is a $12-bill with which you buy J.CROW’S® Lugol’s Solution of Iodine 2% 2oz and make this 50-=cent sized painting.

If I understand what I am reading:  If the iodine circle disappears in less than 12-hours, then it’s something to be looked into by a doc because it may signal your4 body is so short on iodine that it is resorting to transdermal absorption.

In the meantime I’m wondering how much of the processed food out there actually uses iodized salt in it?  If you have any results on this, please advise.  Sea Salt doesn’t have nearly as much iodine as iodized table salt, but the thinking is that trace elements matter, too…

WARNING:  This is all part of a conversation and is NOT MEDICAL ADVICE.  Talk to your doctor.  Get proper tests done.  This is just a cheapskate in the woods talking here and I don’t want to hear from your next of kin.

Still, it’s an interesting enough path to go down on research that I thought I would pass it along.  Some of the symptoms of iodine deficiency according to what I read include a slight puffiness, some fatigue (mine may come from actually working so much) and a few others.

I never for one second in my under 50 years thought that I would become one of those health obsessed oldsters who takes a dozen vitamins a day.

But with 67 coming later this month (the precise day is classified) I am pleased to still be around, feeling good and just as spunky as I was at 50.

Mr.

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I’m sure someone will notice that Denver won the Super Bowl on Sunday, proclaim that it’s a bearish signal and may in and of itself account for the market getting creamed today.

Nothing could be further from the Truth, however.

As we put pixels to photons (or whatever), a few very uncomfortable facts have to be held. in mind.

1.  Amidst all the HS&J (hype, shuck, and jive) around sports this weekend, most people failed to notice that Iran is on the verge of abandoning the U.S. Dollar (USD) as the basis for settling their oil business.

To make this a kind of triple slap in the face, it tells us a couple of additional things, as well.  One is that while many in the West think that the EU will collapse into the Second Depression ahead of the U.S. Iran by virtue of the militant brand of religion-marketing, may have grand designs on eventually subsuming Europe which is already well on its way to becoming Eurabia.

Here’s the count:  To think the Euro is better than the Yen, Rubble, or Dollar?  That’s one.  Two, to have an invading force already hard at work changing loyalties in the EU is number two.  And number three?  We just pissed away $150-billion and the Obama administration appeals distinctly like a troop of idiots, even with what’s her name trying to run for office.

2.  Second point is this:  As we have been explaining, China is trying to build a Middle Class.  And they are working on warrior values and chivalry (see Coping section).  And North Korea is their lap dog.

The launch of the North Korean long-range rocket this weekend is being widely condemned, but guess what?  They did it.

In response, the U.S.

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First item of business is pretty simple and straightforward: 

China is now in the process of recruiting more male teachers in order to teach young Chinese boys how to grow up to become men.

I can’t make this up.

Says so, right here in this article in  the NY Times this weekend.  A key quote from a teacher’s talk with students about history:

““Men have special duties,” he said. “They have to be brave, protect women and take responsibility for wrongdoing.”

Which gets us to a very interesting question:  How is it that the Chinese have re-contacted chivalry while the U.S. largely can’t even spell the word anymore?

What the Chinese are doing is an affront to every sexual minority marketer in the land formerly known as America!  Why, at this rate, China will raise a middle class with a values system that we have – over the past 50 years – turned our backs on in America.

The word Chivalry, by the way, in common  use means:

“…the combination of qualities expected of an ideal knight, especially courage, honor, courtesy, justice, and a readiness to help the weak.”

Something is terribly wrong in China!  Has the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee failed to remind their comrades that total equality for women, gays, etc.

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This morning we do a second chapter of our Second Depression Handbook as we look at a very important link that all major depressions seem to hold in common.

Along with that, we’ll have a few remarks on other items, including our earthquake discussion on “earthquake tired” from the UrbanSurvival column of Friday which – as a whole bunch of readers have noted, nailed the 6.4 in Taiwan.

But above all, we will look at the issues in the charts as next week shapes up to be a kind of “last chance” in our Aggregated Indexes work.

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Yeah, yeah.

We will get to this morning’s jobs report in a sec.

But first, a number of readers have asked me whether the world is ending.

The answer, I’m afraid, will not be very satisfying.

The main attention-getter seems to be the Baltic Dry Cargo Index.  That index as of this morning stands at 298. 

To put this into perspective, we know that when the economy has been percolating along in the past that this index has been previously in the 1,000 and higher, level.

There are likely two things going on here:  First is the economy is experiencing another near-death experience.  As explained yesterday, you don’t have a percolating economy unless you have growth.  To have growth, however, government has (stupidly) put us into a box.

We have trapped millions of young people in the New Vicious Cycle:  Can’t get job, so can’t pay college loans.  Since the jobs they are finding pay terribly, they have to spend every dime on mandatory health care.  Everyone knows healthcare for American could be 20-50% CHEAPER if we we cut the insurance companies out of the middle of it…but no one in Washington, which we call the District of Corruption with reason, is willing or able to do anything because the insurance types are like the unstoppable force in physics.  If you want to get re-elected….and so it goes.

So the normal recovery from this mess is not happening yet.

Since people are seeing disposable incomes decline (a fact papered-over in nonsensical government schemes to count paying off your car as “savings” and such) there is not much going on.

In 2008, the labor participation rate was about 66.7% and unemployment was 5.5%.  We’ll get to this morning’s report in a minute.  But the main thing to focus on is quality of jobs.

Now back to this cargo thing:  Yes, the Baltic Dry is screaming “End of the World!  Everyone Flee from Street!”

But there are some important differences between now and 2008.

I don’t know how many transportation companies you’ve been in senior management of.  My only experience was in the airline industry.  But here, the cost of jet fuel was about 50% of costs.  And some portion, perhaps 7%, was in the debt service of a couple of tax-advantaged off-shore leases.

Here’s my first point (I know, you’ve been waiting patiently):  In summer of 2008 the price of oil was running $145’ish.  This morning it is in the $33 range if we split the difference between West Texas and Brent. 

A little simple math: The cost of oil is 23% (22.75%, but it’s easy so we don’t mess with decimal points until after noon, or so) of the 2008 level.

And when we look at long-term Bond rates, the 10-year was running right around 4%.  Today, the 10-year is 1.86% (*although this is all hopelessly simplified).

Another measure in the HARPEX container index.  This one hasn’t taken out the 2009 low  of 275.  Instead, it is edging up and down to the recent lows of 383.  In a really hot economy, talking 2007-2008 here, this index topped 1,400.

Now, a really great indicator that we talk about with subscribers over on our www.peoplenomics.com site is the Association of American Railroads’ Rail Time Indicators report.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Feb. 3, 2016 – The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported weekly U.S.

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The first bit of Woo this morning was that after working for about 8-hours on Thursday, I decided to take a 2-hour nap. 

This is not common for me, at all.  Usually I’ve got more pee & vinegar in me than a SaniCan outside a salad bar.

This was odd in that it felt like a phenomena we have talked about before:  something I call the “earthquake tiredness.”

It doesn’t happen all the time, but the sequence of events seems to be something like this:  I’ll be going along with the usual energy levels, and then at no time in particular, there will come this wave of dog tired over me. 

It usually passes after a nap – anywhere from 2 to 12 hours will do the trick – and then all the energy levels are back to normal, if not higher.  Thing is, there is usually a 6+ earthquake along in the 48-hours after the nap.

For sure, you could make the argument that 6+ quakes are frequent enough that I should not be surprised by the proximity of one.  And I’ve been through all the math.  Still, it’s a different texture of tired, if that makes sense.

Doesn’t seem to be health related.  I’m smart enough to check blood pressure on the spot and take a second baby aspirin and 500 mg of turmeric, but it doesn’t seem to be related to a health issue.  BP 68/127 with a serious load of Folgers.

My pet theory is that some people – millenniums back – somehow got an “early warning” about quakes to come down at the DNA level.  By warning the Neanderthal versions of Ure to sleep in advance of a quake, we could be out of the caves and such.  Those who didn’t have the gene were at higher risk.

To tell the truth, this is an absurd projection on my part.  But, here in the past 10-years or so, I’ve seen even dumber things that this turned into a 10-minute set of talking points and a big name publisher book and a 300 page book.  ISYN.

Besides, now that I have explained the theory, there should be no quake for a while in order to make a fool out of you-know-who.

Which isn’t that difficult, just so’s you know.

The Case of the Flipped Battery

There is one other minor woo to mention and this is a lot like a scene from The Adjustment Bureau, which is one of my favorite flicks.

I have a cheap Sony portable radio on the nightstand on my side of the bed.  (Specifically it is a Sony SRF59SILVER AM/FM Walkman Stereo Radio which I bought for $18.98 on May 7 of last year and which is presently selling for $37 something here in the land of “No Inflation” but that’s not my point…)

The thing about the radio is that it runs on a single AA battery and that will last several weeks of intermittent, got up to pee and can’t get back to sleep, kind of listening.  Half the time the radio gets left on.

Anyway, I have a routine with the radio.  When I am about to sleep again, I simply lower the radio to the floor next to the bed by way of the headphone wires and then lower the headphones as low as I can and drop.

Every “next morning” the radio is there and ready to work again.  If I forget to pick it up, the Elainamator will ensure nothing is on the floor not properly authorized.

So one night last week, the radio wouldn’t work.  “Well, fine, battery is due…”   So I went out to my media chair beside which there are two shortwave radios, a Sony SWF-7600 and a Tecsun PL-660.  Swiped a single battery and put it in.

Nothing!

Then, on a hunch, I flipped the battery in the other way.

Presto!  It works.

But then so did the battery I took out…

Naturally, I figured the spousal unit had “helped”  but she denied ever having touched the radio.  I got the short “I don’t pick up after you…” reminder.

Now this has been bugging me since last week.  Who the hell turned the battery around?

Elaine didn’t (she can be taken at her word).  The cat doesn’t usually get the right batteries – he says the AAA’s are easier for him to paw.  And that’s it.  We’ve been home…no one else comes in the house.  No cat stations around here for Z.

I know this may sound like a trivial thing to mention in a column, but I am worried that this could be a sign of early onset dementia with my too quickly advancing age.  Only a couple of weeks until 66 disappears into the sunset of memories.

Which get’s me to wondering:  Is one of the signs of early on-set aging putting batteries in radios backwards while sleep-listening?

There is no logical answer on this one.  Other than the Philip K.

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We begin with the daily reading of Gospel here at the East Texas Synod of the Church of the Almighty Basis Point, which my buddy Howard founded.  Please open our Hymnals to Page 317 and read from the book of Fortune.   

“And thus, there came a Miracle on the street.

Lo, the market dropped 300 points.  And verily, the quote of the flaming Dollar fell with it.  And by the arrival of the Faithful’s tears, it had fallen from 91.50 to 90.03 Europe.  The archangel Angela was blessed.

So the Son of Profit spoke to the assembled Multitude:

“Yee see?  The dollar dropped 1.6%!

And this means, from it’s low in the Session of the Almighty, that the daughters of Profit Dow and Profit NAZ should rise according to their effort.

And it was So!

The Daughter Dow, who had Fallen to her (15,960) knees was immediately healed by the 1.6% currency swing and rejoiced to the close up 183.

And the People were Amazed and fell silent. 

“How can this be?” they beseeched. “Is this Fall of purchasing power also connected?” they wondered…

And the Son of Profit spoke again:

“Yea verily, it is so.  More paper is needed when the underlying value fails in the judgment of Global Eyes.”

He then continued:

“Yea, though we walk in the Valley of Rate Hikes, certain asymmetries will arise that will call Your Faith into question.  Remain faithful to the Basis Point.

Fear not.  For the Archangel Janet shall pump you and please you, and make false profits arise unto you and give you some peace.

Amen.”

Somewhat sated, the crowd wandered off.  Still Dazed and confused, for they knew not in their Hearts why a Fed rate can go up and  the 10-year Treasury rate fall in massive disproportion.

So as they left, the Son of Profit called after them:

“You ain’t getting this shit, are you? Come back here!”

And so, with another turn of the Orb is upon us, we stand well-satisfied with the currency exchange-rate bump which goosed the Dow that propelled the Gold that expanded the Silver that lived in the House that Jack built. 

And all traceable to the Burning Bush, which we all know is powered by gas seeps and sitting on a Queen or Jack-sized formation in the land of Profit.

We now return you to the un-sane world to continue the dispensation.  Gimme an Amen and drop something in the collection plate.  Thanks, Bubba.

Related?  This Is How the National Prayer Breakfast Got Its Start or Ben Carson: Evangelicals should think twice about Ted Cruz.

Or These Are The Most (& Least) “Sinful” Cities In The U.S.

Dollar is down a good bit today, ergo gold is up…

With futures down 79 are we the only place on the net that understands it takes more paper to buy value and stocks should rise later today?  After the opening – which we call the amateur hour…

Note from the Alternative Reality:

This is some discussion about how artificial intelligence may really be working the markets.  But I prefer the first version this morning.

That’s because in the AI version of markets, only the big dollar AI crowd can do the pump and dumps leaving the rest of us (not running a Yale endowment) to be the dumpees.

Sons of Job:  Cuts up 218%

Keeping with our light-hearted (or light-headed) view of things this morning, here comes the Challenger, Gray and Christmas (so as not to be confused with Challenge, Gray and Chanukah) Job Whack Report.

Oh, wait, the press release seems to read more politely:

“Last month represents the highest monthly tally since July 2015, when cuts reached 105,696.

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I was about half-way through an interview with Jake Fox at Black Tower Radio up in (is that you?) Rochester when the global, repetitive nature of the human condition hit me like a ton of bricks.

Jake had made the mistake of asking a logical question and I’m not sure he was prepared for an answer of the length delivered.

I don’t do a lot of radio interviews lately – just enough to get back into my “talker mode” from the broadcasting days now and then.  Heck: One question and I can go on seemingly forever, or until the engineers turn the transmitter off at 3 AM for maintenance.

I figure this ought to make me a marvelously popular radio show guess because with one well-chosen question, a host can send out for a pizza, detail their car out front, or take a good nap.

But it wasn’t the length of the answer so much as the image the flew by as I was speaking that I caught and wanted to share with you this morning.

The answer I was giving morphed into a rap on why the planet is (more or less) screwed.

Went something like this:

The reason that kids today aren’t buying homes is so many are looking at the world around us and asking “Why would I bring an innocent child into a world in these conditions?”

So demand for Housing ain’t what it used to be.

Except everyone in government knows that without growth, the whole economy implodes because growing an economy is the one thing that (crony) capitalism actually does well.

Knowing this dirty little secret, government does what it does best:  Makes up money and grabs more authority.  The attack on cash is just a convenience for government to grab every nickel they can.  Little to do with terrorism or crime, but you knew that…

The growth problem is why there is a new real estate loan I heard about the other day:  It would allows first time home buyers a chance to buy a home with 3% down.  97% of the purchase would go on an ultra low 30-year mortgage.

Off site reference read about Conventional 97 Loans here.

Don’t have a down payment?  Fine.  This new program will give you 3% for a down as a second mortgage.

But now here’s the making up money part.  After making your payments on the second for some period (like 3 to 5 years) then the second is forgiven and you effectively would have gotten a new house on something right next door to zero down.

Except  that I’m not too optimistic about this since people today are not likely to actually have money for this because of student loan debt. 

I trust you saw the note the other day about how student loan debt was heading for the 20-trillion range in a few years and will collapse the economy on its own weight?

But that’s the way things are because so many people have been pushed at gunpoint (If it’s an IRS declaration, it might as well be) into buying Health Care Insurance./

So we begin to see the awful pattern start to emerge here:  We are not able to sell a lot of whatever the Next Big Thing is because people don’t have homes and home equity.

They don’t have homes because their money is going to insurance companies.

And even when that’s done, there is the series of student loans that have millions buried. 

And once all that’s done, we’re back to realistically looking at the world and seeing infinitely increasing taxes, continuously watered-down money, and now let’s toss Zika virus into the the great testicular roulette wheel of Life.

Somewhere, I paused for a breath and the topic went on to other matters.

One of the “learnings of the day” was that all of the rally in the stock market Wednesday can be attributed to the drop in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar.

Yeah, I know…that’s not supposed to work that way…”strong dollar” has been one of the silliest political idiocies ever uttered.

What that does is means we have been paying artificially low prices for imported goods, which in turn has resulted in cheap energy and cheap goods from China (and a lack of plants to make things being built in America.).

There is, under the hypercomplexity model, not end of clever ways to apply economic patches, work-arounds, and hot-fixes.

But, in the End, all we are doing is trying to keep a Swiss-cheesed inner tube pumped up by putting on patch after patch after patch.

No one is talking about how the layer of patches is now several feet thick all over the inner tube.  Instead, they utter even crazier ideas like how a Constitutional Convention might be able to “build us a new tire…”

Sadly, when we talk about things like building a new tire, the odds become nearly 100-percent that it won’t be as good as the old tire.

When you step back mentally, far enough, what fades into focus is this idea that the whole World is evolving like a Microsoft operating system.

I mean, the idea is great…but it’s going to need a few patches, maybe a service pack or three, a heaping side-order of hot-fixes, and for those terminally incapable of thinking life a software engineer, a bevy of Mr. Fixit’s to attempt to put things right.

I’m pretty sure if Bill Gates, or whoever is running the joint up in Redmond these days, was running the World, that we would be on Service Pack 2 with at least 3 patches for security features and a whole bunch of new drivers to install.

And that’s why the presidential election is such a disappointment on the republican side.  The R’s don’t even have a Release Candidate yet.

And have the democratic Release Candidates could be indicted and taken off the table.

We live in a world where, like God, we’re busily creating computers in our own image.

As we look around the sorely F/U’ed world today, we can’t fault the Jews, Muslims, and Christians going off on their end times search for one very simple yet profound reasons:

The World needs a major Update not just a pile of new hot-fixes.

Why heck, everyone who’s sane is “looking for an update” and can’t say as I blame ‘em.

As for religions as business models, have you ever wondered how they only release a service pack every 2,000 years or so?

– – – – – – –

There.  A short column for a change.  One that seems to make sense.  Don’t look for that to be a trend…

I’m off to work on  the next chapter of “Peoplenomics:  Second Depression Handbook” while there’s still time.  It’s appearing for Peoplenomics subscribers one chapter at a time as written.  The book will be along one of these days, but a month or three near as I can SWAG.

Getting Older – Ham Radio is still a Pleasure

Late this month, I will be having a birthday as #67 shows up.  Been a fine ride and I am in no hurry to leave.

Most important thing about Life I’ve learned, by the way, is this:

If you live a life where you’re honest with yourself and color inside the lines of society, you don’t have to every look back over your shoulder.  And you can keep an eye on what’s ahead.

Yesterday, my friend the retired Major who’s been a pal since we were both age 3 and some fraction sent me a marvelous book:  Reflections Transmission Lines and Antennas (Radio amateur’s library).

He’ll be coming down to visit around the first of Tax Month, or so.  Since we are both fairly serious about the hobby, we will likely be putting up a few antennas, taking the tower down for fresh cable up to the beam antenna.  Yes, even LMT-400 ages and I need to do some welding on the tower, too.

We didn’t get into ham radio until age 13 in any serious way.  In 1963, however, we were busily assembling ham transmitters from kits.  For me an Eico 753 kit with factory-made Hallicrafters HA-5 VFO.  He was more a Heathkit man; HR-10 receiver, DX-60, and the matching VFO.

Over the years, we’ve had different ham radio adventures.  But some of them are really pretty neat.

His son (driving C-17’s for Uncle presently)  married the daughter of a construction magnate who lives not far from Gig Harbor, WA.  And being a smart fellow, he’s picked up a ham ticket to keep a  handy-talkie for prepped for  “…in the event of an actual emergency…”

The construction magnet and my bud were able to use little handy-talkies as the CM pre-ran an ultra-marathon course a while back.  That course was from Ellensburg, WA down to Yakima along the Wenatchee River.  The radio only had 50% coverage though because the ultra-marathon course was hilly and there weren’t a lot of repeaters around.

Fast forward to this weekend:  the construction magnate will be running a warm-up marathon up in the San Juan Islands of Washington State.

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For one thing, the price of oil is back under $31 basis the West Texas.

Oddly, Asia was not in the crapper and in fact the Shanghai market was up better than 2%.

Europe, on the other hand, is doing its damnedest to drop that much.  In doing so, the U.S. will like fall 1%, or so, and that should set up a decline in China overnight.  Back in serious trading days, set-ups like this would have me eyeing Asian ADRs (American Depository  Receipts, stocks traded by proxy here).

Well, gee, ain’t this gonna be fun.

I suppose you wonder what’s going on.  The answer is simple.

As you know, we recently hit a major trend channel bottom and we have bounced off that to the upside.  The market now should march a ways up the slightly climbing trend bottom for a ways while everyone comes to terms with the idea that a Wave IKV bottom is really in.

From there, we should make a major move up to about the middle of the trend lines, then pull back, and then go on to new all-time highs.

BUT (and this is a big booty of a BUT if you know what I mean…) IF the market slams down through the bottom of the trend line and stays there for a while…only to come up to the bottom of the trend channel, then we will have to renumber the wave count.

In the “Nightmare on Wall Street” version of the future, we would discover that what seems to fit as a Wave IV was really the beginnings of a I down.  And the recent decline to the trend was just a (1) of I down.

And if that’s the case, we would have to brace for THAT in turn forming an even larger 1 down…and pretty soon my friend Robin Landry’s work, that looks for a sub-1,000 Dow over time shows up sooner than later.  Until the wave structure delivers some new highs, we are still in the danger zone where a Failed V could occur…so we will sit back and watch the herd to see which way they’re going to stampede.

No point trying to be in the middle of the stampede, is there?

Zika virus is a terrible new “left field” event.  A few technical details from the WHO – which has declared a pandemic now:

Key facts

Zika virus disease is caused by a virus transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes.

People with Zika virus disease usually have a mild fever, skin rash (exanthema) and conjunctivitis.

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(Shreveport, LA)  So, you’re wondering: What are George & Elaine doing in Shreveport?

Answer:  I have made a resolution to keep our old Lexomobile until the eventual arrival of “self-driving” cars.

We will also cover the world’s most convoluted accounting problem, too…but in due course.  It’s going to take a bit of explaining.

There is a piece from a while back (maybe a year?  One loses track of time at this stage of life) about how such machines will change the way we live.  By the time the analysis was done, it was almost too good to be true.  The only part that is not-so-good is the price.

Still, consider what it’s going to be like to have a car which…

• Will find its own damn gas station with the cheapest price.
• Will wash itself when it needs to be cleaned.
• Will schedule and keep its own maintenance appointments
• Will potentially END any concerns about drunk driving.
• Will allow you to completely relax and watch the scenery go by…
• And, in the twin bed version of the driverless, you can actually nap, snooze, or sleep all the way across the country on trips. 

To be sure, the media has taken a kind of delish delight in reporting the occasional mishaps that the driverless Googmobiles and others have run into.

Still, it smack of an “anti-future media” and what I mean by this is we have (as a country) lost some of our native ability in American to (language alert) make really cool shit.  Sure, some things like the silicon dolly voice come out of Cupertino, and elsewhere.  But the minute it hits production levels that make sense for the American market “Poof!!”  The manufacturing goes offshore and the money (in Apple’s case) that piles up from huge success hangs offshore too.  No point paying taxes on it, I suppose.

Since we may only buy one more vehicle in our lifetime (assuming someone doesn’t offer me a trade for the old airplane that involves a 911 or Cayman), we sometimes have to leave Palestine, Texas and venture out into the noisy world in order to get certain things done.  For reasons that should be apparent to any free-market economist, the largest Lexus dealership in the world is not in Anderson County, although there’s a good Toyota dealership.

The new dealership in town can’t make a Lexus key.  Lexus here in Shreveport can do so, but only barely.

Lexuses (Lexi?) from the mid 2000’s had one weak spot in their key design.  The plastic that should protect everything has a weakness right where the key stem attaches to the plastic body holding the electronics.  For all we know, there may be a ham sandwich or bag of cat food inside there, too.

Anyway, ours broke on the last long road trip and Elaine didn’t like my idea of repairs.  It involved an assortment of Duco Cement, Super Glue, model airplane cement, and electrical tape.  T’wasn’t pretty, but it did the job.  Until last month.

I ordered a replacement key online – I thought with the push-buttons, but no,  I got the valet key instead.  It will do everything the “special key” will do…it’s just you can’t do it from across the street.

Naturally, the valet key from online needed to be cut and “programmed.”  Which was done for $50-something.  But the dealership didn’t have our old-style key in stock.

After a turn around the dance floor trying to figure out how to solve this, we noticed a display for something called an “Eternity Key.”  Basically, it lets the dealership take the old electronics and key stem and put it into this new “military grade plastic” housing. $117 and change.

Don’t even ask what a military grade of plastic is.  In my short exposure to product design, we just used glass-reinforced injectable goo and it worked fine.  I suppose a stronger binder and a different ratio of glass filling has been assigned a “MIL-STD” but the display either didn’t mention which standard, or I was too dumb to find it.  Regardless, no one in the waiting area was able to inform us on point, either.

After going through the chairs a while longer in the waiting room (1-hour 10 minutes and by now 4 pm) everything was done.  We had two keys that worked and look good. As opposed to a blank part  and one gob of goo with push-buttons when we walked in.

Cost of the repair?  A shade over $187.  But with a “special” key, you really don’t have too much choice.

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A fiery cup at the speed of light, a cloud of dust, and a mighty “Where goes Silver?” echoes across my front yard as the Sun tries to figure out where Texas is.

This may sound a bit melodramatic, but it mat have been the highlight of the day.

You see, Japan was up 2%, the Shanghai was down almost as much, and this morning the mumbletards of Eurabia are down over one percent.

That doesn’t bode well for ‘Merica , formerly a land of borders and common sense.

The Dow will open down a hundred and something and oil has been kicked back under $33 for West Texas and EU oil is down too.

In fact, if there’s anything good in this morning’s review of the futures, the price of copper (a fine little indicator of war jitters because countries are reloaders, too) is back down.  So all the crap over the weekend about South China this, and new islands that is just filler between Iowa stories.

Say, Ted…

-Not to get off onto a side track so early in our morning cuppa, but did you see this Times of Israel note?  “Now deeply Christian, Cruz’s fervor once wasn’t so obvious.”

And there’s this headline, too: Bible prominent in final Cruz pitches to voters.

So here’s the thing:  I get that Ted is trying to work…I mean appeal to…the religious right.

I must be a little off, though, because Ure’s truly was under the impression that America held to the separation of Church and State.

Here’s the thing:  I don’t have any problem with Ted being a Believer and all, BUT when politics and religion mix, its something to keep an eye on. 

Seems to me the only difference between Christians and Muslims getting mixed into politics is which book they reference. 

I’m sure the Texas senator has done the calculus on this, but  beyond a certain point, there may be more moderates to be gained than Born Agains.  Something to ponder, although it’s really too late.

I just go looking for where the church and state have merged and I come up with places like, oh, you know:  Tehran.

Admittedly, on the other side, a large portion of America’s younger voters have no clue what “core values” are…but can we keep ‘em in separate buildings?

Our Lady of Teflon

Meantime, that 22-emails from the Clinton private server have been deemed too classified to be made public.

No worries for the Teflon Lady, though.  A former Inspector General says there will be no indictment.

You and I are not above the law, you see.  But there are “somes that is”…and it’s what keeps America a bad joke in more mentally-honest countries.

I’m trying to work time into my schedule to write a book which might have a title along the lines of:  Masters or Organization:  Gotti and Clinton.  You compare organizational geniuses you want, I’ll pick my own.

Side bets on a low-level bit of collateral damage will be all she wrote?

Personal Incomes and More Fairytales

Just out:  Personal Income and Expenditures….a nearly incomprehensibly discontinuous report where the math never works out.  Here:  Hot off the press release:

“Personal income increased $42.5 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $37.8 billion, or 0.3 percent, in December, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $0.7 billion, or less than 0.1 percent. In November, personal income increased $44.3 billion, or 0.3 percent, DPI increased $33.4 billion, or 0.2 percent, and PCE increased $59.4 billion, or 0.5 percent, based on revised estimates.

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