Can the Fed Talk-Up a Bummer Economy?

The best news of the week, if you’re a humanitarian, is that the price of copper has just busted two-bucks.  The futures are saying this morning that the demand for copper has continued to decline.

I mentioned long ago that copper prices are one of the “pet proxies” around here for the odds of war.

The reason is simple:  Copper is the main ingredient in Brass (copper and zinc with sometimes 2% lead to improve machining characteristics) and brass is used to make shell casings.  Unless, of course, you happen to be firing polymer-coasted steel casings from  the USSR because they’re cheap for your AK-47 and SKS collection, but that’s a side point.

So with the price of copper down  under $2-bucks, we are able (at least for this morning) ruling out a nuclear war firing off this week in the Middle East.

It also tells us that later this month we should look for softening in Housing Starts because another big use of copper is housing wiring.

See how useful the study of markets can be?

OK, let’s move on to some of the more “doomly” reports making the rounds over the weekend.

Here’s a story, for example, about how there were “no ships” moving in the Atlantic because trade is collapsing.

True – but only in part.

In fact, if you zoom-in on the map over here, you’ll find that there is plenty of coast-wise traffic.  And let’s think about what’s going on:

If you were a ship owner, would you pay crews to work over New Years?  I would try to scale down operations, that’s for sure.  And since people didn’t come back to work on the first, many came in on the fourth.  And when a ship has been shut down, there’s loading time for cargo, and you don’t just put the hammer down and go like an airplane.

What about the collapse in the Baltic Dry Index?”

Well, what about it?

I mean sure, it’s at 429 and that’s pretty damn low, but look at the biggest cost in ocean shipping:  fuel.  And then go back to the commodities this morning where you will find oil is making at least a double-low and could drop into the 20’s.

When energy is dirt cheap and when cargo is slowing, there’s no end of ship operators who would rather operate at break-even and keep in motion, or even at a small operating loss in order to avoid bigger losses…

I will tell you what is concerning:  That is the Harpex Index *(Harper-Petersen container shipping index) which is at 363 when I looked this morning and which bottomed in 2009 down at 275.

But does the world end today? 

Not a chance.  (You can safely go back to bed, read a book, or screw around because you won’t miss anything…)

For one, we have both the Dallas Fed and Atlanta Few presidents out on the rubber chicken circuit.  They can be expected to say things are good and only getting better.

What we don’t know is whether anyone will pay any attention to them, but for now it’s too early for them to talk rates – so I would expect a word like “robust” “firming” or maybe “solid” to dominate headlines.

Later in the week, the Fed will launch additional talking heads to jaw-bone up the market.

Not that they need to, however.  Let’s be practical here, for a moment.  There are plenty of “End of Worlders” who will buy put options (and no did last Tuesday) about when our Trading Model went to the short or cash side.

But think about this:  There is no trading next Monday and we have an options expiration this week.  Do you really think the owners of stocks who pad their returns with a dose of put-option writing really want to have their stock called away from them?

Why, hell no, they don’t.  But since the market is down from the last third Friday in December when the S&P was at 2,005 and change, do you really think the put option-writers want to pay off on 1925 puts?  Or 1950’s?  Or even 1975’s? 

Of course not.

So what we have this week is oil setting up to touch the twenties.  Fed-Heads saying how marvelous this is, and a bunch of option-writing capitalists not wanting to lose their money.

In those charts I showed you last week, we can see what should happen next according to our work (rally) but we shall see what we shall see.

This morning we notice that Shanghai was down another 5% and then some last night…but Europe is starting a small rally and it looks like that will carry over into the US.  One of the great really short-term trades today might be to buy the oversold Shanghai with the happy-talk around the world is setting up for a huge recovery.

What people tend to forget is that a year and a half ago, the Shanghai index was a third lower than it is now.  So does that mean anything to us?

Sure:  China is having a slow-down.  But we can also see by looking at the Shanghai stock market, that they have just been through one hell of a stock bubble bursting and reality could be 30-40% lower from here, still.

You’ll have to pardon me if I don’t get excited about the world ending just yet:  Shanghai is going back to 18-month-ago prices, the Fed-heads will speak (*you may not even see the strings) and the put-option crowd really doesn’t want the 1,975 puts “in the money.”

Can I be wrong?  Sure.  But how often is Big Money wrong?  So this will be a fine dance to watch this week.

Passings:  David Bowie (corrected – coffee sinks in)

David Bowie Dies at 69; He Transcended Music, Art and Fashion

18-month battle with cancer.

Those Changes are coming for all of us…and I’m not sure which hurts more:  The loss of his great music or the realization of ch-ch-ch-changes come for us all.

“…and these children that you spit upon,

As they try to change their worlds…

Are immune to your consultations,

They’re quite aware what they’re going through…”

Ch-ch-ch-changes….

“I said that time may change me, but I can’t trace time…”

But we keep working on it…

A Serious Question Being Asked…

A quote this morning from an article in The Week gets to a very poignant point we’ve been riding herd on:

Does Germany’s leadership class secretly want to destroy the European Union? I’m beginning to wonder.”

Not only is is the Michael Brendan Dougherty article worth a read, while we wait for someone in the MSM to ask the follow-on question here for Americans:  Does the Obama posse secretly want to destroy America? 

Obama the Idiot (II)

Maybe someone besides me should be asking “WTF are we ending the Iran sanctions for?”

OK, I mean besides a dim-witted president, screwing the Saudis, and so forth…Oh, and should we mention the Iranians aren’t follow the “deal” PLUS they still hold four American’s hostage?

Quick.  Someone send Barrack Hussein a copy of the “Art of the Deal.

And we’re bringing in all these military aged Muslim men to America on cargo planes for what reason exactly? 

And that brings us to this from our oak-leafer and military affairs expert “warhammer

Good Monday to you and Ures, George.

It seems the Saudi’s can play a deft, real-life game of Stratego, throwing up a deliberate domestic smoke screen with the execution of Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr and 46 others to hide the kingdom’s mounting economic woes. Iran reacts as expected, becoming the kingdom’s new designated regional nemesis (as Israel breathes a collective sigh of relief).

<http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/international/mideast-africa/2016/01/10/saudi-provoked-iran-standoff/78359480/>

If any of Ure readers are of the opinion that democracies, particular the U.S.

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Coping: Crowd Research Call on “Co-Dreaming”

This morning’s column  was going to be an email to Chris McCleary, who operates the www.nationaldreamcenter.com site and who is working on his fourth or fifth Masters in  dream-related work.

But, instead, I want to throw out a wild theory, or three – and get some feedback from you – to see what we can evolve on the coming art of Co-Dreaming.

There are two bits of important background to have before we delve into the concept – and then on to why we need crowd research on it.

The first point is that  my novel  DreamOver is based on some very personally “real” dream work I’ve experienced.  Specifically, parts of my first novel are autobiographical. 

The part where the fisherman or worker personality was wandering around what seemed like a marine hardware store in a former Soviet client state on  the edge of huge lake or arm of the sea…that was objectively “real” to me because I dreamed that dream.  So was the small child who dreamed about walking down out of the hills in South America, only to be chased through the edges of town by a group of bullies/toughs.

The title of that novel gets to the idea of dreaming-over and finding ourselves experiencing other people’s lives.

So, let’s set that concept aside for a moment.

Next to the second bit of data:  I see my wife Elaine every once-in-a-while in dreams.  But only as a glance.  She’s doing one thing, and I’m doing another in the dreams.  Seems that I’m also a passing apparition in hers, as well.

I look forward to sleep because it’s like going to I-Max – the dreams are that real and all encompassing.  Not a sense is untouched.

In last night’s vivid dream, there were two major plots going. 

One the plot involved a neighbor of mine who was just moving into our area.  In my dreamland, Elaine and I have a modest (but still sprawling/large) home on a saltwater beach area.

In this dream, there was no fence between the neighbors house and ours (until we worked out our differences).  He had a yapping dog as well as a miniature camel (about 5-feet high, two humps, who spits and tries to nip).  We got the fence issue sorted out, though, and that would keep his Michael Jacksonian menagerie off our slice of heaven. Chain link in dreams…who’d have thought?

The second plot to the dream was there was evidence of a criminal being down in our boathouse.  In our dream-home, there is a covered boathouse that zigzags out into the water, you see.  There are six or eight slips that are covered – and out at the very end is our big family yacht.  Nothing to pretentious:  110-feet four-engines and the finest interior ever. 

But that’s not the point:  A police officer showed up and said he’d like to check out our boathouse.  There’d been a crime of some kind.  So, being a cooperative fellow, I led him to the boathouse where there was a Coast Guard RIB boat standing by.  The Coasties had spotted this partially submerged car in one of my slips.

The car was a curiosity:  Bobbing slightly, it was a four door blue Hillman or Citroen 2CV-looking thing.  Although it had a rear engine.  Somehow (this is a dream, remember) the car was floating.  It was kept afloat by air trapped in the large wheel wells and by the fact it was remarkably waterproof.  Oh!  The Engine of this floating car was also missing.  The cop and the Coasties were not sure how the hell that happened.  And I was wondering what this car had to do with what was supposed to be my dream…

I was with someone who was there are a different matter (off-camera guide, perhaps) but we had been down to the big yacht earlier and there was no blue floating Hillman/Citroen and that meant (in the dream) that the floating car had been placed there sometime after our jaunt to the big boat which would have placed things around 3:30 to 4:30 in the afternoon.  (It was another perfect day in Dream Land…filtered sun, 75, or so.  Elaine was doing something up in the house while this was going on, etc..)

Hell of a backgrounder, huh?

At last, we’re to the interesting bit of speculation and why we need some crowd research done.

I awoke from this dream with a burning question:  Why aren’t Elaine and I spending more time together in these dreams of mine?

And this leads directly to the matter of what I call “Co-Dreaming.”

The idea of co-dreaming is very simple:  You have someone who is your “soul-mate” and you go into dreams that are cooperative in nature. 

I’ve already “dropped in” on enough other personalities that accessing those in a dream state seems possible.  And I’ve had enough of those real woo-woo moments that I know with absolute, unshakable, unquestioning belief that there is real knowledge transferred around in the dream state.

But, as we’ve noted in past commentary, it’s not every dream, every night, or any of that.  Proper dreaming requires the right vitamins, health, personal energy levels, quiet in the emotional background of the dreamer…and who knows what else.

Then you need to do a fair bit of dreaming.  That includes things like learning to intend in dreams.  It goes without saying that we each have a super-power or two in dreams.  They turned out, in my experience, to be a little stranger than I’d been expecting.

For example, personal flying:  In order to do it there are two or three major “deal points.”  First, it doesn’t work as an experiential dream with me if there are more than one or two heart-level-connected people around.  In other words, flying in dreams is not something that can be done in front of large crowds or, interestingly, as an exercise of ego

When you fly in dreams, there is also a kind of buzzing in your chest and one other thing (I don’t want to ruin your dream work by telling you my experiences…).

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The NINE Horsemen of 2017

A longish report this morning.

And update on our Trading Model.

A number of possible resolutions to the present decline.

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The Rally, the Jobs Report, the Fearmongers…

The first thing we get to straight is that the market should end the week within a few points of the target number I mentioned in yesterday’s column:  1960.48.

As any damn fool can see (yes, I qualify) the end of the world has not come over the horizon yet.

In fact, far from it, I am still sticking with my prediction of new all-time highs by mid-May.

Be advised, as always THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.  That would involve me trying to sell you something.  Other than a subscription to Peoplenomics.com, I offer only commentary and things to think about.

Which is why – unlike George Soros, who is becoming somewhat famous lately for talking-his-book – we have to sit back and watch the Madness of Crowds.

This is a none too obscure reference to?   Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds.

Granted, the book was published in 1841, but we don’t like to be too aggressive in our reading recommendations – besides, we wanted to see if the book would remain popular.

The original work was done as a three volume set and in volume two the topics included the witchcraft madness the world went through, the Crusades, and other such cases.

The good news (*you can find it on Gutenberg, too) is that voting in a neighborhood organizer as president for two terms may not be the craziest thing crowds have done, after all.

OK, well close, but there are other examples to consider.

To my way of thinking, here is the Kindle eBook that is probably the single best value in the field of investing out there:

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds: Volume 1, 2, and 3 (Illustrated and Bundled with Psychology of the Stock Market and Irving Fisher on Investment)   That’s a whopping $1.19 on Amazon.

Fisher is the fellow who called for perpetual rally at exactly the wrong time in 1929, but his notes on how to ride a bull market are useful for review.  Especially when the market looks oversold and when good news comes along to stampede the herd  t’other way.

Jobs Picture Improves

Well…sort of.  let’s run through the press release and then focus on a few specifics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 292,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0 percent, the U.S.

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Coping: Life in the Alternative Universe

This being Friday, and all, the futures were indicating a modest rally today – which should land us very close to my “number” for this week (1960.48 on the S&P).

So to mark the occasion, I’m now working on my next career:  As a comedy writer…  Since life “is-what-it-is” there’s no shortage of material.  And that’s before hitting politics and economics.

I’m guided in this endeavor by one of the finest collections of bad jokes out there; the Federal Register.  Allow me to elucidate.

So there I am staring at a project that requires a super good, durable paint job.  And it involves aluminum, so the paint must be preceded by either Alodine or Zinc Chromate ( to MIL-DTL-5541) to prevent a future paint flaking issue – a couple of clicks and it’s on the way.

Then I come to paint selection.  I know from past experience that white kitchen appliance epoxy enamel is a fine match for the paint I have in mind. 

I make the mistake of reading the fine print…

 

 

 

 

Hold the phone, Jackson.  I think we have crossed over into another dimension.  A dimension not only of sight, but of bureaucracy.  There, at the signpost up ahead:  California!!!

I have never been out to Catalina.  But in order to perpetrate a potential act of civil disobedience (which would be labeled domestic terrorism for budget and narrative purposes), I am considering importing a can of this illegal spray paint of this epoxy appliance enamel to Catalina.

I can see it now:  Getting on the boat at wherever the boats to Catalina come in…facing down a body scanner or having some Gestapo agent frisk me, looking for cans of….spray paint!!!

Is ALL spray paint illegal on Catalina?  I frankly don’t know.  What I DO know is I’m not the first to notice this.

It seems highly paradoxical that one of the most unwrecked places on the planet has to be one of the most regulated.  It’s like there is an unwritten formula of life that says something like “Pollution times regulations must always equal this value.”

Under this formula, highly polluted places in Asia are under-regulated (they sell cigarettes like crazy in Indonesia, says our correspondent down in the Dark Side).  But if a place is “pristine” the only way to make the “formula” work is to regulate, regulate, regulate.

How insane is this?  You have to keep the past couple of weeks of headlines in mind as you read about these thoughts of defiance.  I assume you know that California has a HUGE MOTHER of a natural gas leak going on – big enough to cause all the global warming in the world by the sound of it.

Yet verily,  the righteous are protecting Catalina. Oh, freaking, goody.  But the “secret formula is intact.”

I am happy for the sea lions, whales, and whatever else the greens are protecting out there.

But here in  different state (Texas) of mind, we find outdoorsy preservation projects are sometimes helped by a good coat, or two, of dangerous amine-containing fast curing epoxy enamel.  (Baked in the oven for a couple of hours at 180-degrees when Elaine goes shopping when I have time to air the house out afterwards, is better…usually the cardboard I set things on for curing doesn’t catch fire.)

Turn about is fair play.  I’m putting the imperialistic greenocrats of California on notice:  When I get elected County Commissioner here in District 3, one of my first acts in office will be to promote a 100% ban the sale of Sea Lions and whale meat in Anderson County, Texas.

And to show my sensitivity to environmental issues, I will also press for a ban on whaling in the county, as well.  Perhaps an environmental tax on new cars made in Japan as punishment for their past sins against whales could be passed, too.

My First Campaign Contribution Arrives

My buddy Jeff from the local ham radio club has become the first person to step up and contribute to my campaign fund.

My campaign fund now stands are precisely $1 U.S.

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Dow to Drop Big-time: So What?

I began with, a nice dish of organic chicken stroganoff over (also organic) Yukon gold potatoes for breakfast.

Then, for dessert, it was a hot peppermint cocoa…

Hey!  Ure!  WTF with the culinary crap?  Where’s my insightful look at where the market is going today?”

Easy, there big fellah.  I’m making a point.  Pay attention….

The point is the market is in the process of making a January low that may have a 50-50 chance of being the low for the whole year.  With options expiration next week, who cares if we are down another 400 points on the Dow today?

In my world, things look very far from grim – we’ll get to that in a sec.  But first, even if I pencil in a 44-point further loss in the S&P today, that still doesn’t get us out of my “target” green circled area for this week – and in fact, with even a small rally at the close tomorrow, we are likely to be right in the green, so to speak:

Sure, it would be more graceful if we could get down into the yellow circle, but that’s just wishing and hoping.  The deeper the pullback, the more upside money may be made…everything has a gold or silver lining to it.

How can I blithely not buy into the current doomporn outburst?   Let me count the ways…

1.  Man With Knife Shot Dead After Trying to Attack Paris Police Station – which means that we could be rounding a corner where force is met with force in Europe when people start misbehaving.

2. In the Middle East, Iraq is offering to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia.  Depending on how this goes, we could see a chill-down in regional tensions.

3.  The ADP Jobs Report yesterday was pretty good, really.  And this morning, we have the Challenger Job Cuts report just clearing:

A strong economy, coupled with what appears to be a growing reluctance to announce layoffs during the holidays, contributed to December experiencing the lowest number of monthly job cuts in more than 15 years, according to the report released today by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

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Coping: The Art of “Detached Thinking”

The fact of China shutting her market again last night has many readers nervous and uncomfortable.  One of our Peoplenomics subscribers, in fact, sent in this:

“Mr. Ure,  It is now Midnite MST.  China is shutdown again. US Futures and oil commodities are down.

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Some “Good News:” About Doomporn

It is an odd topic to be on this morning, after being a guest on a highly regarded national radio show (Coast2Coast with George Noory) last night. 

Especially on a morning when speculation over whether the NK nuke test fired the Hydrogen “bigger bomb” material.

While the show always has an interesting assortment of people on, few bring their comments from previous years with them.  I happen to be an exception, I suppose.

But my optimism about 2016 could quickly fade late this year, or early in 2017.  So this morning a kind of summary of where we are in the rhymes of history and how you may wish to prepare for what comes next.

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Migration is a Money & Growth Addiction Problem

Before anything else this morning (including our latest “told you so” on markets) we have to look at couple of immigration stories under the harsh light of cash flow analysis.

The first story to consider is this:  “U.S. Begins Immigration Crackdown on Central Americans. “

Again, government is operating as a bad comedian – telegraphing the punchline ahead of time: These “raids” have been carefully announced weeks in advance – giving the serious criminals plenty of time to relocate and to avoid the “sweep.”  Theatrics or Kabuki, it’s a poor show.

As an aficionado of classic R&B, might I suggest an old Johnny Mathis and Deniece Williams song captures the reality nicely?

Meantime, back at hard Reality: The Obama administration is about to shed immigration caps through the presidential decree process – also known as executive orders.

If this seems contradictory and confusing, please consider that it is merely a “flow of funds” problem.

The reason for the publicly touted “raids” is that Americans are reading stories, almost daily, about the mayhem the non-assimilating populations are causing in Eurabian cities like those in Germany.

But when the facts are collected, it becomes apparent that the immigrant population of America is still on trajectory set to grow the immigrant population massively: In fact “ Immigrant Population to Increase 715% by 2060, Census Data Show.”

What we come to is that the ugliest secret of capitalism is alive and well:  Capitalism – in order not to fall apart – must always operate in the “growth mode.”  By doing so, there is a good chance that a virtuous cycle can be realized.  think of it as positive feedback.

But when growth disappears, what happens?  Suddenly the reverse occurs.  Demand for social services climb, the cost of government soars, and programs sold as a social net – like Social Security – face long-term bankruptcy because of actuarial finance:  The demand for benefits will outstrip the income within 20-years, or so.  Answer?  More people to pay more into the system!

This unfunded long-term retirement liability is powering the EU’s inflows, as well.

Which means, simply put:  Government must ensure growth at any cost.  The German stock market has outperformed the other markets of Europe since 2009 in large part because they have embraced immigration.

The Krauts got onto the mechanics of this when the Wall came down in 1989.  Rather than experience a mini-depression from assimilation of East Germany, there was something of a boom.  And so with their economy needing constant reinforcement, bring in the foreigners!

Yet there is a terrible cost of unchecked immigration.  We’re just seeing reports this morning of how more than 1,000 immigrant men went on a rape and pillage New Years:

German police hunt for group of up to 1,000 men ‘of Arab and North African origin’ who sexually assaulted numerous women and threw fireworks into crowds at Cologne train station on New Year’s Eve…

The U.S.

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Coping: Radio Appearance Tonight

No, I have not personally orchestrated a global financial hiccup in order to add drama to my radio appearance, but…

1.  I will be on Coast to Coast AM with George Noory from 12 midnight to 2 AM Central (10 PM to Midnight Pacific.  And if you’re on the East Coast, you’re already so dad-gum smart you probably know the time already.

But just to make sure, especially for readers who happen to work in government, that would be when it’s dark and the little hand is on the one…

2.  NO!  I am not that George Ure – the one whose name appears in the current Journal of Clinical Virology as a contributor to a study “Performance of Determine Combo and other Point-of-Care HIV Tests Among Seattle MSM.”

That’s my son, George II.  And yes, Dad is always proud of resume fodder.  Same kid who won a Seattle-King County Red Cross Hero of the Year award for disaster work in Joplin, MO a couple of years back…and who has been doing range-testing of texting extension thingy under canopy for some New York RF engineering outfit.  Getting 14.4 miles out of it…but more on that some other morning.

Dad is hounding him to finish his paramedic cert and go the physician assistant route…but I never listened to my dad, either.  (Especially when he was right about things…)

3.  My left hand is puffed up size of a small golf ball thanks to tripping on a big steel sliding door whizzy down at the hangar on Monday.

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Crisis Mechanics: How Moving Pieces Fit

The new year started with a near 7% drop in the Shanghai stock market, so thanks for that, China.

The tumblers in the great lock of history are falling into place quickly.  With the Dow set to open down about 300-points and the Eurostoxx 50 was already down 4%.  (In fairness it bounced so as to only be down 3.5% a few minutes later…)

Just to keep this in perspective, 4% of last week’s closing Dow would be almost 700 points to the downside, so even if we drop, oh, 350-points today, there’s not often a one-day drop of this magnitude without follow-on selling into the next day.

How this all works out – and how important it is – depends on what you do for a living.

Since much of UrbanSurvival and our subscription www.peoplenomics.com is future-oriented (so you will be rational when the irrational happens), we see this as a precursor to violent conflict to the two factions of Islam.

It is a precursor because the Sunni Saudis have broken relations with Shiite Iran and it doesn’t stop there:  Bahrain this morning (also Sunni) threw out relations with Iran.

If you are looking at things from the strategic Saudi angle, this makes a lot of sense. Because the price of oil is so low (and as the late Matthew Simmons pointed out in his landmark book Twilight in the Desert years back) the Saudis are getting killed to the tune of perhaps a billion dollars a day by low oil prices.

Water-cut is their problem – that how much water comes up with how much oil.

Since the Kingdom is run on a kind of royal welfare system that money shortage from cheap oil and water-cut is a major problem.

We see in the context of great books (like Report from Iron Mountain)_ whether useful fiction or a leaked and changed around playbook, that the Saudis have a serious issue in keeping their civilian population under control.

That – sadly – is one of the traditional uses of warfare:  To keep civilian populations under the thumb of government. 

In the current case, a “good war” with an “evil empire” will be quite saleable within deeply polarized nations of Islam.    It will not only be a war (really caused by low oil prices) but a war during which control of their civilian population will be key.  As we told you long ago, never forget the Saudis were buying at least one atomic bomb from Pakistan.

We are also looking at this as a stock trader this morning.  Since 2015 was a “”whole freaking year” of no real advance in prices, we should be seeing in here a  major decline I have been warning Peoplenomics readers about for weeks.

In fact, here’s a chart with my green target area for this week’s close circled, as well as a yellow (worst case) level.

As we’re currently expecting things to roll, the decline this week (and perhaps next, but less likely) will be brief and hard, hitting one or both of our targets.  I suspect both, but I’ll update the chart tomorrow to see which target is hit, although if money (and hanging onto what you have) matters, you’d already be reading Peoplenomics so this stuff wouldn’t come as  Monday morning shocker.

But from there, we should see a major turn of fortunes as the commercials load up at bargain prices over the next couple of weeks and then run things up a bit as they did in the late fall of 2008.

There remains a good chance, though that optimism  will persist through the presidential follies, although if they don’t, then Depression II could be along in just a few minutes time.

Our best guess, however, is that the current escalation path toward war will be shortened because neither the U.S. nor Russians (who are backing the Shiites by backing Assad and selling nuke plants to Iran) will stand for it.

In many ways, the U.S.

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Coping: With a Machiavellian Nightmare

This will be one of our most to-the-point columns in years.  It will make an interesting companion to this morning’s Nightmare on Wall Street which will break out shortly.

It has to do with a Machiavellian nightmare that I had this morning about 5:00 AM.

Before I lay it out for you, first a word or three about Machiavellian Intelligence, borrowed from Wikipedia:

In cognitive science and evolutionary psychology, Machiavellian intelligence (also known as political intelligence or social intelligence) is the capacity of an entity to be in a successful political engagement with social groups.

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Bankers Planned “Permanent Migration”– in 2008!

Yes, the banker class has been planning this since at least 2008.  We found a document to support that assertion.

Yes, we have made much in in the past couple of weeks about what is really going on with the global economic picture.  Most notably, we explained that the main reason why there has been such a huge – and sudden – trade in human immigration is for one very raw fact:

Immigration allows governments to “make-up growth.”

The mechanics of this are simple – and crystal clear when you review the data from our Wednesday report.

Today, we tackle a slightly broader issue:  How are some of the other ways that “Growth can be made-up?”  but more to the point….who’s been planning this?  The answer won’t surprise you.

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