Today we dig deeply into the cause of periodic economic depressions (which could be closer than you’d think) and come up with a surprising result. While cycle theorists, such as Nikolas Kondratiev believed in the 48-64 year “long wave” we find evidence that there’s more driving periodicity than simple interest-rate fluctuations. First, however, headlines and … Read More

I got a chuckle out of a note from Bullish Bob Bagley (a real broker) who sent me a reminder this morning “…it’s also a full moon!”  Well, yeah, there is that…  Chuckles mean something on days like this when economics is pretty serious. On the other hand, I told you we were in cash and … Read More

The unilateral imposition of “smart tariffs” on aluminum and steel imports is both a very good thing, and a bad thing.  Plus, it reveals what we expected about the nature and thinking style of Donald Trump; it is far from reassuring. This is an almost Peoplenomics.com style of report (sans links and data sources).  It’s the … Read More

The Universe has a wry – some would say sick – sense of humor.  But that’s one way to read the departure of Hope Hicks who has been White House Communications Director. There are many ways to read this.  The MSM approach over here seems to broadly tie her departure to the appearance before a congressional committee.  … Read More

An odd column this morning.  I had the “earthquake tireds” on Wednesday. This is an area where science and woo-woo overlap.  Is there a quake coming?  Newsworthy one, perhaps? Not bigly and hugely – kind of 6 to7 point somethingly. But, I have learned to pay attention when such “vibes” show up.  Not that we are … Read More

I call it the Machine-Human Overlap (MHO).  It’s the period between when a new technology comes along that works without human participation and when the last human leaves a supervisory role.We’ve seen this is broadcasting, railroad, but the big stuff (cars, trucks, warehouses, retailing) is just gathering steam.  So with more than some concern we … Read More

Just out from Case-Shiller, S&P, CoreLogic, et alia: S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER NATIONAL HOME PRICE INDEX SHOWS HOME PRICES END THE YEAR 6.3% HIGHER THAN 2016 NEW YORK, FEBRUARY 27, 2018 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released … Read More

More than a few readers have written with questions about how the visit to the doctor’s office went Monday. Surprisingly well is the short answer. The biggie is the blood pressure:  Down to 140/81.  Back at the August measurement it was 156/89.  And the improvement came despite putting back on a few pounds.  How?  Well, … Read More

The next couple of weeks could be pivotal for markets for any number of reasons.  It’d be worth your time, though, to follow at least some of the data. As we have told subscribers to our Peoplenomics.com  site we have something of a cognitive conflict going on.  It takes a bit of explaining, but it’s worth … Read More

If someone says “I just noticed another very strange asymmetry in the world!” what would you think? There are, we would expect, natural symmetries. Let’s start with right and left-hand doors, for example.  I assume you know the rule for figuring if a door is “left-hand” or “right-hand?”  Standing in the doorway, swing your arm in … Read More

If you’re getting seriously into MAKING of things, you really need to have a good-sized shop table in the middle of your workshop.  Ours has just sort of evolved over the years.  Legs were built one year, first top (old 2×6’s) went of next.  Slapped a coat of white paint on it (so as to see small parts) and … Read More

Just a grand morning:  Truth-tables deluxe.We have a new way to forecast disaster in the financial arena.  Please excuse that it doesn’t conform to some of the rules of math, lol.Then we look at expected positions of markets next week.  Oh, and the latest conspiracy theory making the rounds.  So, bean up and let’s go.. … Read More

There is a 52.63% chance that we are replaying the left side of the 1929 run-up from December of 1928. HOWEVER, there is also a 73.68% chance that we are replaying the right side of the 1929 blow-off, and in that case, the world will be ending shortly – at least in a financial sense. All … Read More