Case-Shiller, S&P, CoreLogic Press Release being with the headline “RISE IN HOME PRICES REMAINS STEADY AT 6.4% ACCORDING TO S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX ”  which – since we’ve seen lumber futures fall 7% in the last two sessions, we truncated to a more believable ” HOME PRICES REMAINS STEADY.”

No one likes to consider a peaking process – but we have to keep the Reality Glasses on sometimes…  OK, take ’em off, then, and read:

“NEW YORK, JULY 31, 2018 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for May 2018 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.4% annual gain in May, remaining the same as in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.1%, down from 6.4% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.5% year-over-year gain, down from 6.7% in the previous month.

Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Francisco continued to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In May, Seattle led the way with a 13.6% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with a 12.6% increase and San Francisco with a 10.9% increase. Seven of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending May 2018 versus the year ending April 2018. “

And the one chart that we track closely?

To us, this looks a lot like the 2008-2008 topping process was the Elliott wave high.

Under normal Elliott rules, since we may be higher, it could be argued this is just a market going on to new highs.

Lumber prices argue no.  And we offer the idea that if we back-out inflation (and go by inflation-adjusted pricing) things would be less rosy, indeed.

Thus today’s definition of “Bravery”  Buying a house at these prices in Seattle!