Implementation note with the Fed (no change in happy-talk) report:  (fine print the financial press glosses over…) “Effective September 23, 2021, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to: Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 0 to 1/4 percent. Increase the System Open … Read More

Yes, the anti-fragile crowd could be wrong. Complexity might actually speed up – not retard – financial collapse.  It is entirely possible that while Nasim Taleb followers have been spouting off about how complexity will “save us” the exact opposite is likely true for reasons we will explore today. This is not to diss Taleb’s book … Read More

My consigliere and I are both very worried about the future.  So before we get into the blood and guts of current markets and “news” a few items that are beginning to pop up for next year. First, there are independent reports that in September 2022 there will be a major earthquake in Japan.  Something well … Read More

Rumbling First, keep an eye on Florida and East Coast real estate:  La Palma volcano eruption today: evacuation, possible tsunami and live updates.  The decades long fear is a massive tsunami from a caldera blow-out there (ocean of water onto steam-generating lava) could be a worry.  Read the Ward and Day analysis of how ugly … Read More

Ton to go over this morning. First, though, a useful think, or two, about the fall’s economic calamity to come. Even if you’re not subscribing to our Peoplenomics newsletter, do be aware that even though a “hard down” is likely in the US economy this fall and into early spring, there’s a case (in the charts) … Read More

With our Aggregate index long-term top holding (for now) we can project how bad things are likely to become over the rest of the year. Into next, as well. Despite other flaws, the advice about “buying Christmas presents early” from VP Harris does begin to make sense when we go off dot-connecting. Instead of a … Read More

Looks like the Wave 1 down and Wave 2 rally in the Peoplenomics Aggregate may be done. Dow and S&P futures are already down in the pre-open…and two news reports indicate structural problems for the financial sector might just be warming up.  One at a time… Fed Ahead One of the issues to consider going … Read More

A bit of a long woo-woo tale this morning, but incredibly useful in understanding the world.  Thus, in addition to a look at Retail Sales just out, the new jobless filings, and a few other headlines, we will spend some interesting time in Ure’s World of Woo-Woo. First:  The Retail Sales May I have the … Read More

Although I’m not a financial advisor, we do serve up an interesting mix of ideas for dealing with Social Security benefit reductions should they come along.  Say, there’s a pretty safe bet, huh?  Naturally, the fear porn industry is already offering projections.  But they are wildly premature. On the other hand, some of the basic … Read More

How can we be so lucky?  Everything is going “nice” – sort of. We begin with the report on inflation, just issued by the Labor Department. “The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.5 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor … Read More

Kinda hard to get out of bed today.  Calm before the storm (in a sec.). For this morning, markets are back on track for a rally resumption.  One we fear could be curtailed if/when consumer prices come in higher than expected when released tomorrow morning. Then Wednesday, brace yourself for retail sales figures.  Even though … Read More

USER HINT:  Right click with your mouse and – if you have Windows 10, select “Read Aloud” so you can watch the sun come up while drinking your coffee and having today’s column read to you.  (I have taken to this tool many times to help proof read this column.  Hasn’t helped, but I can … Read More

Much somber discussion and recall this weekend. But around here, something more.  The realization that despite billions, if not trillions spent on the National Security State, America is just loaded with weak underbellies waiting for someone to attack. Perhaps related to the calendar, we’ll cover our new “Exceptional Fear Indicator” based on market action in … Read More