With a handful of economic data releases, we have actual news to talk about. However, since markets are (generally) closed for Good Friday, we can indulge a bit in more light-hearted aspects of Life.
Business first, though.
Questions & Data Day
Q 1: Is there Mail Delivery today?
Yes. In fact, despite the (nominally) Christian foundation of America, the Federal government doesn’t get a day off. Thanks, liberals.
Q 2: What About Parking Meters?
Plan on Paying (PoP). This is America. This means we have left traditional religious values (like charity) and moved in (more or less completely) to a financial monetization of everything.
Q 3: What are today’s Big News Releases?
We’ll roll through these in order:
The first is the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing outlook. Came in like this:
“The headline general business conditions
index surged thirty-six points to
24.6. New orders and shipments grew
strongly, and unfilled orders increased.
Delivery times lengthened, though at
a slower pace than in recent months,
and inventories rose.”
Which would have seemed OK, except for the part where the look-ahead cratered:
“The index for future business conditions
fell twenty-one points to 15.2,
its lowest level since early in the
pandemic. Longer delivery times,
higher prices, and increases in
employment are all expected in the
months ahead, and capital spending
plans remained firm.”
The next biggie will be the Fed’s Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report due out at 9:15 AM Eastern. When out, click here.
Not that you can do much about it, what with US markets being closed for Good Friday.
Q 4: Why look at Capacity Utilization, anyway?
One of my frequent harangues is American style financial engineering looks far too closely at the money leaving far to little attention paid to goods.
We all know prices are going up. But the real power of the economy is a calculation involving both goods and price. On the Peoplenomics side, we get more into this kind of thinking, but it’s very much like electronics.
Where – if you aren’t running around with a signal-tracking spectrum analyzer in your pocket, POWER is calculated by taking VOLTAGE times CURRENT. Since Power is abbreviated P, current abbreviated I, and voltage abbreviated E, remember this is as easy as P=I*E.
A country (like the U.S.) can lose its economic way by simply focusing too much on one aspect of the “I*E” part of the equation. Yes, high voltage in electronics is often useful, but if the current drops in proportion to the voltage increase, no additional “actual work” (reported as Power in units of Watts) is done.
Similarly, in economics, if prices are going up, but unit volumes are cratering, the overall Wealth of Nation isn’t going anywhere.
Q 5: Interesting. So where are we now?
That’s a little more complicated. And part of it is due to Covid and how people’s STM (short-term memory) works.
Economics (because of political expediency) measures mainly year-to-year change.
The problem? When we have major life-direction-changing behavioral change (like Covid), two or three-years into events, we get all self-congratulatory along with high-fives and hugs if things seem better than just last year.
We forget, however, that things really were better by many measures 3-years ago.
Q 6: Prove It!
If you “go to the data” – instead of reading hysterical news accounts, a review shows that fewer people are working even now than held gigs before the ‘Rona showed up:
This is despite the massive illegal entry to America which us likely up over a million since 2-years ago…
Q 7: Is this why Brandon is Removing Title 42?
Ah! There’s a lightbulb going on. Yes. Politics is taking naturally occurring events and claiming credit for them in order to hoax voters. Besides climate hysteria, Open Borders is just another con.
You see – and Europe saved itself from economic collapse with mass in-migration, too – More People means More Economic activity.
As America “leaves the doors open” more will in-migrate. Which will create a kind of lower-class working people’s boom economy. If you’re a slumlord, open borders are your cuppa tea.
Around here, we see both the upside (downscale demand replacement as earlier downscale people move up the economic conveyor belt) and the downside (drugs, child and adult sexploitation, and political shenanigans such as non-citizen voting) are encouraged by America’s communist states.
Over time, we will rollover into the absurd Canadian model of Francophone pandering with Spanglish dual language. Again, it will make more jobs (Spanish and Engrish (sic) websites, government publications, street signs and all the rest. All part of the “Rise of Non-Productive Jobs” which is what we’ve been driven to because of a lack of well-planned alternative future design.
Real jobs and manufacturing were sold-out to Asia long ago.
Q 8: So what, is our present economic condition as a country?
Our friends at the Association of American Railroads have a weekly time series report called Rail Time Indicators. It offers a “blinders off” look at products and unit volumes. In their Wednesday report this week, here’s their size-up:
“Total carloads for the week ending April 9 were 236,459 carloads, up 1.4 percent compared with the same week in 2021, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 271,884 containers and trailers, down 3.1 percent compared to 2021.
Six of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2021. They included coal, up 3,519 carloads, to 65,725; motor vehicles and parts, up 1,320 carloads, to 13,352; and chemicals, up 1,185 carloads, to 35,152. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2021 included petroleum and petroleum products, down 2,107 carloads, to 9,319; metallic ores and metals, down 1,753 carloads, to 20,711; and miscellaneous carloads, down 551 carloads, to 9,808.
For the first 14 weeks of 2022, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 3,223,599 carloads, up 2.5 percent from the same point last year; and 3,641,782 intermodal units, down 6.6 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 14 weeks of 2022 was 6,865,381 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 2.5 percent compared to last year.”
The political hucksterism of this (lousy) administration is its LYING NARRATIVE to convince people to Blame Vlad the Bad.
The Truth (which people ignore) is that we were already in declining units of many major commodities in advance. But, Ukraine’s border is as good an excuse as any to this clown posse.
Q 9: I thought the Supply Chain Problem was fixed?
Lies by omission. Several things you are now aware of that WILL shape your futures over the balance of this year and into 2023 you need to PLAN ON right now.
- The supply chain is highly China-dependent. They will be taking Taiwan back (*reunification) before the year is out. Forbes has been pretty good about looking ahead as a dot-connector: China Covid Lockdown: Here Are New Shortages You Might See Soon. China is using Covid as an excuse to tighten the noose around our neck. They are also becoming (*even more) wary of U.S. dollar-denominated anything. They know we’re borrowing from Peter to pay Paul and with rates going up, it’s only a matter of not too long before the National Debt blows up. Which is why our focus on debt elimination and investing in civilization restart kits because at some point, space-based EMP over the U.S. – with plenty of deniability – will be an outcome of the Neocons and Euromaniacs rush to take over Russia.
- Medicine Shortages are likely this fall-winter. Word came from a buddy who is a (doc) hospital director. He’s already telling patients to work on health improvement so if their critical meds enter shortages, they won’t have such a “hard landing.” Because so much drug manufacturing is overseas, the risk is amplified and our (bought and paid for, sold out) Congress has sold us all down the road on this front, too.
- Food Shortages will be here in no time. Which means not only will quality be going down, but prices will be going up. The Neocon-Biden ill-advised warmongering (to protect the wrong border) will result in higher input costs for farmers, the shortage of truck drivers will get worse, and Vlad the Bad will get blamed which will play with (*stupid) woke and democrat voters. Already, the OBiden anti-energy drive has reduced Gulf drilling to 9 rigs, instead of the usual 30+, new leases are being thwarted, and mining regulations (think hard rock) that have nothing to do with rig operations offshore) are now being required for training. The result is a growing shortage of job-ready rig crews. Again, evidence of the Obama-led anti-America take-down in action. Already, we’re revising our outlooks to include gas lines before the year is out. Stories like OPEC tells EU it’s not possible to replace potential Russian oil supply loss | Reuters are laying the groundwork for that already.
Q 10: Sounds like America’s future is fading.
I think that’s by design. Unless you’re actively marketing LBGTQ do stories like Ukraine’s LGBTQ community finds refuge in Berlin really matter?
There’s been a trend since the beginning of time for power to be concentrated in the “hands of the few” and we see that being continued as control of the Internet is being wrested by into “hands of power.” These are the people *(via proxies) who are working out anti-human things like social credits and who feed you a constant diet of divisive ideas (race, gender, religion, and all manner of consumerism) in order to “keep you where they want you.”
America would be a much better place if we had two term limits for all political offices, no exceptions, and if we had financial net worth caps of something quite comfortable ($100-million) but no more.
A few things to think about with markets closed for what we hope is a very Good Friday for you.
All comes down to Easter Weekend Is Brought To You By These Lobbyists And Political Associations. Yes, we’re all getting nailed, huh?
Write when you get rich,