Options Week, Recession Evaporation

by

We’ll hold off on chart sharing until Peoplenomics subscribers get to Wednesday.  But, the short translation of visual-to-text is we are walking the top of the trend channel of Wave 2.

The Aggregate Index high of November 2021 led to a blow-down into Q3 2022. But from that low (of Wave 1 down) we have rallied about 71 percent to where we are opening today.

In Elliott waves, a rally of a Wave 2 can be as much as 100 percent which would make the top of 1 and 2 into a double top in technical analysis.  But that’s not particularly common.  But, then again, neither is finding lines of blow in the WH and being unable to find a perp.  You just cain’t be sure of much of anything these days; deep in the illusion.

It is what it is.  Until the trend breaks and the weakening Dollar gets some low–T shots, the dynamic is the dollar is falling so it takes a bigger basket of ’em to buy “the same shit.”  Prices are going up and we look for a 1/2 point Fed Surprise a week from Wednesday.

At which time:  The rate increase means we will (effectively) pay more money to people holding dollars.  Which means they are “worth more” so from that, it will begin to take less dollars to buy a given basket of goods.  And with that prices (ergo, inflation) should begin to officially moderate.  Big Picture.

However, it has been a 24-kt. bitch to day trade the short side.  I don’t like to waste my time making barely-better-than-breakeven trades.  So, I sit here and wait to either break higher (a new all-time high beyond the Nov. 2021 high) OR busting down through trend channels.

For right now?  Deep breathing exercises and trust no one and nothing.  War is coming because we need an economic stimulus.  B’Av 9 / July 27 (or 29 using the older calendar) is only 10-days away, WWIII window opens there…)  And calling it a “climate emergency” when the Sun comes out in the summertime?  Pah-leese!

Empire State Manufacturing

A good lesson in data correlation here.  Remember back to last Thursday’s column, where we went over new unemployment filings?  Here’s exactly what I said then:

“Notice in the reasons for increasing UI filings that manufacturing layoffs are being cited This could be the leading edge of the long delayed arrival of the Biden Recession Tactically the problem is whether there is time between now and elections to do anything about it Have a recession AND a recovery in 16 months and have time to make TV ads Sounds iffy and scratchy to us…”

What has just dropped in the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing data – and based on the Thursday UI filings (NY UI filings were the second highest in the nation but based on things like transportation and warehousing.  No mention of manufacturing.  

Head-scratcher?  Wait no more, here’s the Gospel According to Fed:

“Activity Holds Steady
Manufacturing activity was little
changed in New York State, according
to the July survey. The general business
conditions index fell six points to 1.1.
Twenty-nine percent of respondents
reported that conditions had improved
over the month, while twenty-seven
percent reported that conditions had
worsened. The new orders index was
little changed at 3.3, indicating that
orders edged higher, and the shipments
index fell nine points to 13.4, pointing
to an increase in shipments, though at a
slower pace than last month. At -8.8, the
unfilled orders index remained negative
for a third straight month, a sign that
unfilled orders continued to decline.
The inventories index also remained
negative at -10.8, indicating that
inventories moved lower. The delivery
times index came in at -6.9, suggesting

that delivery times shortened.”

Which pictorializes as:

Some of the highlights in the NY Fed report
These are some of the key metrics in the NY Fed report just out

When unfilled orders are down, companies are nearly “caught up” so any hesitation here and rumors of a recession will be around. But sure looks to us like business is “caught up” and if New Orders don’t get moving, we have too many people working.

Forbes was yammering about it over the weekend – just as we had Thursday:  Is It A Soft Landing Or Delayed Recession? Unveiling The Economic Landscape Of 2023 (forbes.com).

Personally? I like hard landings – because they are like get in, get dirty, and get out.  Instead, I fear the worst: slipping into a wokcession and war with the inevitable shitstorm at the end.  Great way to start the week, huh?

Real News in tomorrow morning’s report: We’d expect a rally (dollar’s down a bit this morning.  Gold is aiming for $1,960 while BTC seems likely to bump higher from the $30,200 zone.  So, yeah, a rally in here and then a sell-off to help the Nation’s Poor (commercial traders) who have index options to pay off on this week. A fine time will be had by all.

But first, in the early going we see a continuation of the Friday decline until, oh, the European close.

Can we have some real news please?

UKR War Gets Uglier

(Like it’s gonna get prettier with the War Party in power? Come on,  bud…)

(We would have preferred something not quite so newsy…)

As NATO is moving up forces into Poland (and what not) things on the eastern front are going to crap.  Russians broke through Ukrainian defenses in Liman Pervy: Ukrainians collapse with a bang in Kupiansk – They send reserves and mercenaries.  Which ties back to Video: Ukrainians look dumbfounded at their losses – Ukrainian BMP passes through destroyed convoy.

Remember earlier this year when I told you “The Famine Card”  will be turned as the heat goes up?  Well, both are happening (famine in the wings, heat)  as Russia halts wartime deal allowing Ukraine to ship grain. It’s a blow to global food security.  And Moscow blames Ukraine for new attack on bridge linking annexed Crimea to Russia.

Our advice (which has been remarkably similar for 25-years on the web) distills down to a) don’t live in “middle of the bull’s eye target cities, b) get a cheap trailer and some land with low taxes somewhere, and c) get to energy and food independence as quickly as you can in life.  Then, while not as over-stressed as everyone else, you can make decisions from a position of relative strength.

With the Famine Card in the deck, if you don’t have a garden or alt. food plan, you’re a dope.  (Go find another website. We don’t take kindly to fools ’round here.)

Reading stories with the West’s party line (“NATO’s Ukraine Tightrope”) is likely – in our view – to inevitably expand.  We require the waste of human capital, destruction of goods, and destroyed savings.  Didn’t anyone read Iron Mountain besides us?

Snews

Is it Janet’s magic mushrooms talking? US, India among ‘closest partners in the world’: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Meanwhile, back at the Crack House: Biden appoints Indian-American business leader to serve on Prez’s Export Council.  Lemme see, exporting what? Umm…Jobs?

Beyond Joe Blow, the Miranda column in the NY Post today is pretty good: The Secret Service’s investigation on the cocaine found in the White House blows.

NY Times leading ultra-lib attack on RFK, Jr? Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Airs Bigoted New Covid Conspiracy Theory About Jews and Chinese. Um, not so fat gray lady of news: Anyone open to the idea that Kenndy was simply commenting on actual by-God data pointing exactly where he suggested?  Data?  I know, I know...irrelevant!  Go back and read our 2020 coverage at  https://urbansurvival.com/virus-novel-epicanthic-warfare-to-ww-iii/  Tah-dah!  Ure’s long view and questions ain’t so nutty, huh?  Anyway, we thought the report in the Irish Star Robert F Kennedy on anti-censorship warpath in DC as presidential campaign grows leaned less.

Manipulating Climate for Control Dept:  US climate envoy Kerry holds talks in China.  As China keeps bringing even more dirty coal plants online, American sellouts are promoting hobbling this country while China’s on a roll.  Traitors?  Maybe that a little strong.  Not saying it’s wrong thought… Great political slogan if Reality mattered: “Punish Might, Punish White – Let’s be tender, change your gender! It’s the new American Way.”  (If the foo shits…wear it.)

It’s not Summer, it’s not Hot. Political hysteria’s what we’ve got: Extreme heat sizzles US West as deadly flash floods persist in Northeast. My God people, look at the effing calendar.  What month is it?

Houston Bureau Chief Writes:

“Is it “collective insanity” that drives people to either buy existing homes or build in high-risk locales as opposed to merely vacationing there? NOLA and the entire Louisiana coastline still hasn’t learned anything from the seemingly never-ending hurricane-related disasters, the “Cajun Navy” notwithstanding. TX insanity is self-explanatory as it relates to Oil Patch, but its coastline from CC northwards to Galveston remains as vulnerable as it was when that mega-storm hit Galveston in 1900.

Point made after reading. Hurricane Ian battered these middle-class beach communities. Repair costs finished them off.  Uh-huh, yep.

Meanwhile, filed under Maui wow-wee!  Calvin is now a tropical storm; earliest wind impacts for Hawai?i is Tuesday afternoon. Real-life prepping report from Reader Hank on the big island in the comments  Sunday (..Sunday, Sunday, Be there!)  (Whew, 70’s flashbacks are rolling today!  Remember those commercials?  YouTube remedial video here.) Anyway, Hank’s notes are great.  So are his Pele peppers.

ATR: SDR II

A follow-up note on our SDR (software define radio) discussion Sunday (Sunday Sunday….).

I was able to keep tweaking and dialing in the Ham-It-Up settings down to the -112.5 dBm range.  Measurements were made using both CubicSDR and SDR++. Within a dB or two of each other. And I got the SpyVerter was down to -114.5.  That was a first release model.  The newer R2 version should be here soonly and we will go back through that RF measurement minefield again and report.

When we do, I will also publish some air band sensitivity numbers for the NESDR-Smart and the purpose-built ADSB RTL dongle.  We didn’t get into how well they work at higher frequencies than HF.

Texas Hot? Else and other: Temps MAY hit 100 for the first time this summer here in the Texas Outback this week. Maybe even today.  But while the climate mongering continues, just remember that by last year at this date on the calendar, Tyler Texas had experienced eight days of 100F or higher temps.  Tayler hasn’t broken the 100F mark yet this year.  See for yourself Tyler Texas Weather.

More to our liking?  Mean temperature was 85.8 F for last July.  Halfway through July this year, the mean is 82.7 F. (Park your climate hysteria at the Texas state line. If you ain’t from here, Austin’s where the expat libs are living.)

Ure’s Newest Science Experiment: 

I wonder what it would be like to get a “disposable phone number and actually publish a reader feedback voicemail line?  Imagine the fun we could have posting audio clips of people’s rants! A whole new concept.  Pass it on to Elon – it would Save Twitter. A kind of mashup of Tweets and podcasts.  Like that Joe Rogaine, or whatever his name is…

Anyway, if you would have Elon Musk call me at 903-740-0596. Yes, this is a real phone number. Leave me a voicemail – which is the whole point.  Yes, a new hare brained Peoplenomics experiment!

Yeah – let’s do that this week, huh?  No point to living if we can’t rock the paradigm a bit!

Back to watching the world while muttering “How much longer?” 13-days?

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

28 thoughts on “Options Week, Recession Evaporation”

  1. You may be onto something with your new science experiment. A number where you can call to leave your whatever and it could send a current briefing. Genius. A recent episode of Blacklist was about how the main character of the program had built his highly successful worldwide intell platform using his very own electro mechanical POTS system and fax machines.
    Just sayin….

  2. You may be onto something with your new science experiment. A number where you can call to leave your whatever and it could send a current briefing. Genius. A recent episode of Blacklist was about how the main character of the program had built his highly successful worldwide intell platform using his very own electro mechanical POTS system and fax machines.
    Just sayin…..

  3. “But while the climate mongering continues,”

    Generally for those who use AC look at the electric bills. Over the years are you using more kWh, about the same kWh or less kWh? Should be less because replacement appliances are usually more efficient. LED Vs incandescent, yada, yada.

    Changes are happening. Here next to MI the Great Lakes have turned into toilet bowls. Beach closures off Lake Huron due to E. coli. Lake Michigan is the same. Lake Erie is the Lake Huron toilet bowl.

    People boat and swim in shit water. Doesn’t bother them. Power of the crowd I guess. Drink up.

    • Going to the Dock this morning for some Lake Erie pickerel, for a fresh fish dinner tonight.
      The Great Lakes seems a lot cleaner since the zebra mussel invasive species;
      “However, zebra mussels and other non-native species are credited with the increased population and size of smallmouth bass in Lake Erie and yellow perch in Lake St. Clair. They cleanse the waters of inland lakes, resulting in increased sunlight penetration and growth of native algae at greater depths.”

    • This reminds me of earlier days when I used to swim in the Hudson river regularly – usually off a boat, and definitely somewhat upriver. One day I got to meet a girl from Craigslist and I went to her place in Fort Lee, NJ. As part of our impromptu “date”, we wandered over to the Palisades and climbed down. We went swimming in the river for a bit, and then I noticed some floating turds. I never mentioned them, but got us out of the water and climbed back and went to her place for further adventures – after a serious shower!

  4. Yep, Texas in July is a bitch and August is coming.

    Just ordered another solar kit for the other well in the North end. Hopefully it will produce enough water to fill a trough and take the pressure off of the other well. I measured 36 feet of water in the bore hole but you never know what the refresh rate is until you start pumping.

    Back when we hit 114 around here I later retrieved the memory chip from one of my trail cams on the ranch and it said it was 118 degrees at 6pm that day. How accurate that cam’s temperature sensor is is debatable, though. I have it mounted on a cedar post inside a cedar bush so there should have been a little shade on it by then which makes that reading even more dire.

    Going to hit 107 according to the forecast today. Starting to lose a few goats but whenever the weather hits its extremes that always happens. Marginal animals will always be the first to drop regardless of food and water availability.

  5. 5 stars as always even if that’s the first time I’ve seen the rating scheme!

    I like that call-in idea. I may take you up on it.

    Finally, as George so astutely pointed out, it’s summer time again. Of course it’s hot! That leads me to some actual data from my lifetime and first hand experience. The summer of 1980 in the south, especially Arkansas was brutally hot and actually the second hottest summer on record behind 1954. I remember it well because not only did I spend a lot of time outside, but our home had only 2 window unit A/Cs. That memory will stick with ya’!

    Here’s more info from the Arkansas Weather Blog:

    “When you look at the first 6 months of 1980, 4 of those 6 months were below average in terms of rainfall with June the driest. In June of 1980, Little Rock received only .53” of rainfall when the average was 3.50”. This helped to set the stage for a horrible, long, hot summer.

    Here are some of the record from 1980…
    We set the record for consecutive 100 degree + days here in Little Rock at 15: July 5th – 19th.
    We had the 2nd most 100 degree days (42). The most occurred in 1954 (43)
    Little Rock had the most days at or above 105 degrees (10 days)
    The average seasonal temperature was 97.29 degrees which ranks 2nd behind 1954’s 97.64 degrees. 3rd on that list is 2010 and 4th is 2011.”

    Not only was that summer hot, but also bone dry. There were forest fires breaking out all over the state. It was a dangerous situation.

    If the current weather is climate change, I’ll take it.

    • I officially started ranching in SW Missouri in the spring of that year. I tried to plant a small garden along a row of grape vines, Went to water things only to watch blister beetles devour a 50′ row of tomatoes, the grape vines, and several yards into the adjoining pasture. It was biblical. But later that same winter we had the coldest temps and lots of wet weather. Agreed, if this is climate change, bring it.

    • I remember the summer of ’80 well. It was the year we moved to NETX. I bought a tiller and put in a garden behind the house, and my wife found out what happens when you forget to turn off the water on the garden. She went out and saw just a dribble coming from the sprinkler. I shoved the top off the well and looked, and there was the foot valve right at the top of the water.

      We also found out the well would recover in about 12 hours, but we had muddy water for 3 days afterward.

      • Lived through it, 1980, myself, as reported here before.

        No A/C. Dead stop coming out of Dallas on I30 facing the Western Sun.

        For the young uns. No bottled water. No cell phones. No A/C in car, full nylons, permed curled hair, makeup, and high heels.

        With the windows rolled down, over 115 rolling off the hot tarmac WITH EXHAUST.

        Yeah, I melted, a little. I was so fit, it was just an endurance test.

        You can still buy T-shirts; I survived the heatwave of 1980.

        Dallas/Fort Worth

  6. Holy Giant Blue One Clawed Scorpions G !

    https://youtu.be/UIlHi15I9YQ

    Talk about hysteria, yeah new vibe/nrg for westerners arriving soonly.
    I mean like wife hurrying in from outside/garage this morning, where she was getting ready to take the toyrota over to the gym, yelling hysterically about a giant blue scorpion with 1 claw. chasing her out of the garage. hmmm

    “how bad can “this” be ? I sayz to myself as I hop up off of couch to go investigate.
    note – we found the remains,(2 halves) of a large Fer-de-Lance out front the ceramics studio that grounds guys had whacked, yesterday/Sunday. So to say She was little apprehensive would be a understatement..

    Steel roller garage door in front and regular wooden door (Mahogany/grows wild in the land of the feathered serpent/affordable) back of garage leading out to back patio/pool, and wooden walkways out to studio/dock/dock house.
    1st – off we dont have giant blue scorpions down here, common scorpion is big, dark brown/hairy looking, big fat tails, with easily id’d stinger on tip.
    2ndly – it is the time of year 4 the Giant Blue Land Crabs to find their “groove” again.. https://youtu.be/vsrTONNljcM

    What does a loving, strongly supportive Husband do when called upon to defend their Lady ?

    I caught that sucker up, and proceeded to chase my wife around the garage a few times with the poor distressed crab trying his best 2 pinch that Ass!

    needless to say , BCN will be in doghouse for the most of the remainder of the day.

    ..Is it 4:00 PM closing time yet ? Never mind – BCN so old it takes me 2 days to recover from all day drinking..Lobster Fest PLACENCIA 2023…”bit of the tail of the “lobster that bit me”…* warm water bugs got no claws.

    color me “consolidating” today..

    Cant we all just get A PEACE ?!

  8. Thought for the day…

    “We often meet our destiny on the road we take to avoid it.”
    – – Jean De La Fontaine – –

  9. Re: The Windy City
    feat: pushing rainbows

    Folks,

    What a glorious weekend it was! The White House schedule reflects no official Presidential duties since the close of Friday interrupted by today’s Daily Briefing. One awaits tomorrow.

    Meanwhile on Sunday, WGLT of Illinois State U reports that the Vice-President was on the righthand side of the Reverend Jesse Jackson at The Apostolic Church of God in a Chicago suburb. Rev. Jackson officially relinquished his power over the Rainbow PUSH Coalition to Dr. Frederick Douglass Haynes III of Dallas, Texas. The latter is a protégé of the Reverend Jeremiah Alvesta Wright, former pastor to President Obama.

    Wikipedia spares tender ears such controversy that might payne the ears as described by the “New York Post” almost 15 years ago.

    https://nypost.com/2008/09/09/o-pastor-in-sex-scandal/

    Now let us take a short intermission with the respite offered by our own sonic doctor of notes, DJ George, bringing us passages that lighten our days. Here we go with an uplifting tune from Three Dog Night!

    “Joy to the World”.

  10. So hear it is – moar hard data on the conspiracy theory that covert19 is a BIOWEAPON unleashed on You and ME by our own DAMMEDGODs military.
    https://www.vtforeignpolicy.com/2023/07/rfk-jr-taken-to-the-zionist-woodshed/

    Hard proof here folks… Please – I am pleading hear – Learn and Understand the graph showing levels of “Lethality” for various Genetic groups.

    Do you KNOW the Answer? as to WHY Azkanazi Jews are IMMUNE covert19 ?

    A better, more important question, if Immune..

    – WHO are You?

    deepstaters (sons&daughters of darkness)..

    – ” I must say I found you all disapointing; I mean Ure incompetence. You left enough clues to sink a ship.” -columbo

  12. Tropical Storm WARNING now posted for the Big Island of Hawaii. CALVIN continues to fall apart with winds below 45mph. Much of the moisture and cloud banks have dissipated also. I’m going to predict a nothing-burger for this storm. It will be just another rainy day in the tropics.
    Good practice for prepping, though.

    • Hank. I have taken Berberine now for several months. I tend to take my information from independent technical papers published by NIH and not Peter McCullogh. I am not a big fan of this guy or most authors that peddle supplements they sell.

      https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32353823/

      For the first 2 or 3 months, I did not lose any weight but then again, I did not change my diet. About 4 weeks ago, I began a calorie reduced diet. I cut out all sugar added products and bread. Everything else the same. I have lost 6 pounds. I plan to lose 10.

      Berberine may well be an aid and I certainly feel good while taking it along with my other supplements. Follow the George Ure diet recommendations which include Berberine and you will experience weight loss.

      P.S. Sorry for all the Canadian Forest fire smoke folks. We are suffering through it as well. Yesterday was brutal here in my town. Many are house bound.

      • For those in my family that have been serious about weight loss the low and no carb diets have worked the best but it’s not an easy diet to follow, especially when you have physically demanding occupations and need the energy.

        I’ve been looking at Berberine for my wife to lower her blood sugar but haven’t been able to find any marketed as such in town. She’s on Mounjaro injections that I don’t like at all but they have had some dramatic results so far. I think it’s better than her sister who went and got the stomach reduction surgery down in Tijuana and now can’t eat more than a very small portion of food at a time now. She got the results she was after, I suppose. I consider that damaging one’s body in order to circumvent the lack of will power and discipline.

        Me? I’ve just been letting the Sun burn it off. Most food intake in the Summer is in liquid form anyway.

Comments are closed.

Toggle Dark Mode