Although the Dow fell 200 and change THE DOW FELL 200 AND change Thursday, my concern now is that we are not yet to the break-point of this decline. 

The reason may be understood two different ways: ONE, would be a discussion of how things look from the Elliott Waver perspective, while the other is from the Trend Channel view.

Let’s talk about Elliott first.

As you know, we have completed what looks like the three waves down of the larger IV which followed the completion of the highs last summer.

Now there are two ways the IV could have gone. One way would be a three wave decline, in which case, the rally we are in right now – though it seems to be trying to end – could have been the start of a fifth wave, blow off top.  On the other hand we still have not rallied past the old level of what would be the Elliott Minor, three of IV,  and so on  this basis, we have to look at the other other potential for this rally, namely, that we could see the markets simply setting up to make that larger IV into a V wave down to complete the rally from 2009.  

So how de we tell which is going to happen?

Two ways come to mind. One would be to look at domestic p9olitics, international affairs, and so on, and try to make an informed decision this way.

It is a fool’s gambit, of course, because there is nothing particular to be learned from the press anymore, since it’s mainly a rewriting festival based  on corporate press releases. The days of dyed-in-the -wool enterprise journalism are long past.

(From here on we opologise for the capital letters, so please excuse the inconvenience … )

THE OTHER WAY WE COULD LEARN, THOUGH, WOULD BE TO DO SOMETHING REALLY SIMPLE:  LOOK AT WHERE THIS RALLY FAILURE PULLS BACK TO.

iN OTHER WORDS, AS LONG AS WE DO NOT SERIOUSLY PENETRATE THE LOWS WHICH WE EXPERIENCED IN

Peoplenomics this week-end will cover this in more detail. I’m off to another eye appointment.

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