We have been holding our breath for the market to hit one of our long-projected highs. To be sure, we got there Wednesday (picture in a second) but I would have liked to have seen it faster. Like a month ago.
This is one of those “big uglies” in economics that no one likes to talk too much about: The speed of the market is based on the speed of communication of price information.
Back in the lead-in to the Great Depression, there was no such thing as SMS, the web, and such. Instead, people had to get the afternoon papers, or the next morning’s in order to figure out how their stocks were doing.
As a result, for the large fraction of America that didn’t live in NYC, that meant when the market closed in afternoon, they were still at work and wouldn’t be home until 5 PM.
Problem was, when there was local breaking news, the newspapers didn’t always wait for the stock market tables. Instead, they would rush to get the breaking news out to people.
That’s one of the historical footnotes between the “morning paper” versus the “afternoon paper” battle in most markets. The “morning paper” would have the previous day’s stock tables, but when someone got up at 6 AM, they would not have time to do much serious trading when the New York exchange was opening in a few minutes two time zones away.
This had a real impact on markets: Speeds that news travels is mighty important stuff when comes to bubbles popping. Our Peoplenomics.com subscribers got the heads-up yesterday outlining our targets for Bitcoins. They will appreciate, as suggested by our chart yesterday, that BTC’s are down in the $3,620 range today.
Back to forecasting, though: Look at the green arrow on this chart which we have been holding up for subscribers now for almost six-months:
This is our Peoplenomics daily trading spreadsheet, so you won’t find the number correlated to anything but our own proprietary work. Yesterday’s close on our index, 20,592.32, means the market has our permission to promptly decline.
While it’s true that “techs lead the way” – at least it has been for a while – we are wondering now since Bitcoin is happily replacing the ’29 stock bubble, if perhaps BTC’s lead the way will become the new mantra foro the ages.
Time will tell.
Consumer Prices Just Out
We can only assume that they would go up by some amount. The only real question was “How much?” So here’s today’s answer:
“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.9 percent.
Increases in the indexes for gasoline and shelter accounted for nearly all of the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index. The energy index rose 2.8 percent in August as the gasoline index increased 6.3 percent. The shelter index rose 0.5 percent in August with the rent index up 0.4 percent. The food index rose slightly in August, with the index for food away from home increasing and the food at home index declining.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in August. Along with the shelter index, the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, medical care, and recreation all increased in August. The indexes for airline fares and for used cars and trucks were among those that declined in August.
The all items index rose 1.9 percent for the 12 months ending August, a larger increase than the 1.7 percent increase for the 12 months ending July. The 12-month change in the index for all items less food and energy remained at 1.7 percent for the fourth month in a row. It has remained in the range of 1.6 percent to 2.3 percent since June 2011. The energy index rose 6.4 percent over the past 12 months, and the food index increased 1.1 percent.
Let me put on my golf announcer voice…ahem…
“On your leader board, gasoline is up 10.4% for the year, heating oil up 9.4%.”
We are especially entertained by the lack of a total medical cost number because that would out a) the big lies of Obamacare and b) underscore why EVERYONE IN CONGRESS SHOULD BE UNELECTED next time they want another change to ‘eff us over… No total medical cost in the cost of living?
And the delusional crap about “All items less food and energy?” Another idiot’s number because take away food and energy and we’rea all starving and dying in the cold and dark. (WTF are these pipple?)
We like to follow consumer prices pretty closely. Not that it matters too much, since wages are what they are and such. But in a nation which runs so close to the financial brink (and most people can’t skip a paycheck without the bottom falling out from under their financial position) the real things to be looking at here are the sectors.
By comparing the increases between energy and food, for example, we can make certain inferences about the nation’s economic future.
Meanwhile? Scrooge McUre is 50% short techs. Which will open down this morning.
We notice the democrats are either hearing things (again) or the republicans are lying (again). Either way, the basic storyline from the Associated Press is “What happened at dinner? Trump, Dems don’t see eye to eye” on DACA/Dreamers.
Is this “negotiating style” or delusion?
I do worry about Trump’s state: I know the last thing I want to do is get up at 3 AM and leave my honey to go post some Tweet, or other. And Melania is almost as cute as Elaine. Just sayin’
On the other hand, Mr. T gets a gold star for acuity on this: “Donald Trump: ‘Crooked’ Hillary Clinton Lost the Election Because She ‘Had No Game’”
Yeah…tell me again why the FBI and JustUs isn’t following up?
Stupid Political Correctness
You may not be able to see it living in the big city as you (statistically) do.
But political activism is starting to piss off a lot of people out here in fly-over country.
This bullshit with sports figures not standing for Our Anthem? I will never buy a time for those pricks. I vote every day – with my wallet. Now baseball has it’s hands full too as a ‘Racism Is as American as Baseball’ Banner Unfurled at Fenway Park”
Trump’s view during the campaign echoes as common sense now: “G-won…get ‘tm outta here…” Which Boston did so I can still watch baseball. And if it’s not on, I have a can of paint I can watch dry.
A hat tip to Charlie Parker down at WOAI (San Antonio) for mentioning one Houston football player, J.J. Watt has raised $31-million for hurricane relief.
While it’s true the telethon raised $44 million, I couldn’t stand the political crap and climate sales job that was part of it.
Oh, and Watt was passing out relief supplies. I haven’t seen a DiCaprio picture in the mud doing hands-on help…but I don’t get out much.