We correctly told our Peoplenomics.com subscribers Wednesday morning to consider the possibility of a strong rally. If you didn’t catch it, it came to pass – right on schedule – in Wednesday’s trading with the market rallying 306 points.
You may not care (or, you’d ante up the $40-bucks a year for the good stuff in Peoplenomics), but the markets are in something of a “must do” in here.
The problem, you see, is that in our Aggregate view of things, the market really needs to close at progressively higher levels at month-end. That’s today, if you’re still “getting the sleep out.”
Since in our proprietary index, we still need another 200-points (or more) on the Dow – with proportionately higher levels in other indices as well – in order to better the April month-end, this is a critical time.
Looking at the waves developing, we seem to be at the top of a potential (large) third wave down. The downside action early this week would be a smaller degree wave 1 down.
That means the rally from mid-session Tuesday (when someone you read blew out of his short position) through yesterday was the first move (smaller degree) of a small-degree wave 2 bounce.
This leaves open the possibility that we will open flat (to lower), then about an hour into the session, rally like hell, but an hour or two before the close – like when Europe closes – then panic will arise as the market may fall short of those 200-250 Dow points needed to “save the month.”
We won’t spell out what happens next (except subscribers know more), but I’d be expecting a lot of “Bad News” to appear that could possibly “shake the world” and that will be the nominal cause (among the great unwashed) to think that whatever the pending bad event is to blame IT, rather than internal market dynamics for the pending (possible) swan song.
On the other hand, the bullish case is that the market holds a gain north of 300 points for the day, meaning the 9-day moving average and the monthly would be constructive. Then, barring any calamitous headlines this weekend and into next, the sky turns blue, birds begin to sing, and the bulls make a bundle.
I wouldn’t bet with ’em, though. Especially since our other reads of “coming events” have been spectacularly good.
See yesterday’s note about how we called the Kim Kardashian schmooze into politics 80-days in advance. (Article here, if you’re not following us closely. (*shame!!!))
Which leaves us to survey the other wreckage called headlines, rearrange it as tea leaves in the bottom of your monitor, and thus scry the future, further.
(If you don’t know what scrying is, you are failing to claim your birthright as a human to at least begin to sense future a bit. It really is useful stuff, and it’s one of the drivers of my next book which I’m shamelessly pre-promoting over here.)
Key Questions About “News”
Before launch (or lunch, for that matter) let’s pause to consider why people read news:
- They want to “know what’s going on.”
- They want to make a personal profit on the news, if possible.
- And they want to “cover their ass” in case something bad that would bankrupt, butcher, or bleed them, happens to be included.
I’ve been thinking a lot this week (again, Peoplenomics this weekend is on DMR – Digital Mob Rule, and there’s the book, too…) about why people follow nonsense like the Kim Kardashian story. How does it fit into the three drivers of “news consumption?”
One reason is “Identification.” America has lost its (sexual) way and the Kardashians are (more or less) normal and can (with the plunging necklines) drip sexuality all over the place. Many people, in our view, are tiring of the non-stop lefty marketing of a bazillion genders and God-knows-how-many bathroom choices. While a few gender-slicer docs will get rich, statistically, according to one report I read a while back, gender-changers may have a higher suicide rate than the un-surgeried gen pop.
One 2014 report (source here) says in its opening:
“The prevalence of suicide attempts among respondents to the National Transgender Discrimination Survey (NTDS), conducted by the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force and National Center for Transgender Equality, is 41 percent, which vastly exceeds the 4.6 percent of the overall U.S. population who report a lifetime suicide attempt, and is also higher than the 10-20 percent of lesbian, gay and bisexual adults who report ever attempting suicide. Much remains to be learned about underlying factors and which groups within the diverse population of transgender and gender non-conforming people are most at risk.”
What is not decided in the data is whether the higher rates are due to the lack of social acceptance of gender change (the liberal leaning), or whether there’s something fundamentally tough on the persona of someone who’s been through the change, especially with all the hormone therapies that come along with it. The conservatives lean this way.
We don’t lean, either, but we’re awake enough even at this hour to articulate the decision framework.
Getting back to the Kardashian deal: They are attractive (yow-sa!) wherever they are hanging out (or whatever they are hanging out of!). And to see them in Washington as “better boobs” than, oh, Congress, for example, is refreshing.
Alas (all-ass?) there is more going on in the world.
Financial Stuff – Jobs
We can’t all be high culture. Some of us have to work for a living. For this, the ADP Employment Report was nice:
Private sector employment increased by 178,000 jobs from April to May according to the May ADP National Employment Report®. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. “
The super-sharp will note that this is down from months when more than 200,000 jobs were being created. But with word that truckloads of illegals are being caught at the Mexico border region, trying to “come-and-get-it!,” maybe we don’t need so many new jobs to keep up the illusion of growth.
Notwithstanding, the liberalistas are still selling the open border nonsense. But, we’d like to point out that in the Soros hang-out in eastern Europe, Hungary to penalize NGOs that aid illegal immigrants. Maybe, although it’s a stretch to imagine it, we could do the same thing here?
OK, back to the jobs – regardless of who gets them:
The HR whiz-kids at Challenger, Gray, and Christmas are just out this morning with more good news on the jobs front:
“Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers fell 12.6 percent, from 36,081 in April to 31,517 in May, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
Last month’s job cuts were down 4.8 percent from the 33,092 announced in the same month last year. That is the lowest monthly total since October…”
I won’t tell you what we explain in PN Wednesday, but it’s worth looking at Bitcoin being back up to $7,545 this morning. That, plus reading R.N. Elliott’s classic on waves in markets (and Prechter and Frost, as well since it’s clearer in their work) and you can see there are two tracks ahead for what’s pitcoin at the moment: One track sails to $30,000. The other? Well, the government cracks down and it was fun (and for some, a new house in the ritzy ‘hood) while it lasted.
Our “Don’t forget Bitcoin gains are taxable income” advice hasn’t gone anywhere.
Tomorrow, official job numbers. We know you’re just sitting on the edge of your seat, right?
Oh, look: After all the hype, Kim Yong Choi – a high-level pre-talker ahead of possible talks has shown up in D.C.
No word on meal plans (we weren’t invited – a terrible gaff). But, it would be fun to send out for Chinese, yeah?
I can’t speak for you, but I haven’t seen this much foreplay since the days of soft porn in the seventies….
Speaking of Porn…
I’m sure this says something about the state of law and sexuality in ‘Mercia…just not sure what. I’ll message Cookie Monster…maybe he can help.
Or, he could just say “D’oh!” (a chorus of groans ripples through the studio audience…) (rimshot)
I’d go on telling you the future…but once you know there’s a case in the market charts for very bad news (NorK talks falling apart or larger) for the Friday-Tuesday period) it’s anticlimactic to cover much else.
Strange, though: No one ever talks to us about prison rights. Hmmm… (Course they don’t talk to us about anything. Most cross the street to avoid…)
Moron the ‘morrow, then. More Dragon Tea. Maybe it will help with dragon breath?