The big news around isn’t markets set for a “dead cat bounce” today. Instead, it’s the return of Mr. Ure’s tractor to 100% with the stump-jumper back in place.
I’ve sworn-off fits of day-trading until several major projects around here are done. Hard to do ranch improvement and build-outs (like decks and new rooms) when your butt is parked watching the money flows, two flavors of stochastics, and the MACD. Because that involves trend line plotting, allocating, and doing head-work. Refer to my recent notes on “Brain-Hand Balance” in life for additional thoughts.
What Happened Friday?
Although it was (to simple people) a serious market decline, it was really a teachable moment for the miser-geezer’s who hang around here.
- Friday’s decline fit very well with our “end of month settlement” window. This theory (which arises from (and is) data-driven) says there is often a pretty good market move (high volatility) in the final four-days of a month and sometimes 2-days into the next one. So yes, a pattern fit.
- A lesson in uncertainty. Markets are a consensus game, but there’s another reality that makes watching markets more like deer herd tracking. People with money school-up and tend to run together. Just like some of that underwater footage of small fish changing direction as a cloud, so too money managers aren’t known for their independence of thought.
- Hype testing. How far can the public (and money managers) be pushed?
Being on the sidelines, it was a “Oh, this is, um, sort-of interesting…” event.
Does News Really Drive Markets?
If it does, we can pick the biggest uncertainties (e.g. those with max potential for economic change of course) and lay them out something like this:
What this tells us about the future?
Well, we are in a rally which fits into a wave count (likely a 3(iv) which will top and then fresh moronic hype will show up and we should take out the Friday lows.
Like a good “first-look, first-shoot” video game, this leads us to have our “What could drive us to lower-lows after a day or two of rallying?”
Data or News?
Data may be thought of as measurements and news may be cast as stories. Just like the library, the news has both fiction and non-fiction on the shelves.
Let’s, then, size-up how the data flows are about to work:
- Pending home sales at 10 (EST) and Dallas Fed report at 10:30. (Yawn)
- Tomorrow we get Case-Shiller Housing. Which may be interesting. Because the Fed has stopped pressing so much money into the economy sayeth the latest H.6 money stocks report. This usually has a 30-90 day hysteresis before it hits housing prices, but the manic-cycle of eager home buyers should cool as the Fed tapers.
- But here’s the data hook: Will the moronic panic force the Fed to delay tapering and will that leave us bouncing along the long-wave interest rate bottom about the Effective Lower Bound for another year? As long as there is a scapegoat, could happen…
- This is Employment Week after that: So, Wednesday, the ADP job creation numbers, Thursday is U.I., filers and Challenger Job Cuts, and Friday we’ll see what the Official Propaganda Ministry rolls out.
The Fed Beige Book Wednesday and their Balance Sheet Thursday (after the close) will round-out prospects. But, like I said, my focus is back to working with my hands, not my brain.
Omicron as Moronic
The hype-machine of Big Pharma will be key to watch. We’re not sure why the next Greek letters in the alphabet were skipped (to get to omicron) but as a reader pointed out, it IS an anagram for moronic.
Have a scan of South African doctor says Omicron symptoms are ‘unusual’ and patients do NOT lose sense of smell. Pretty quick, everyone will have a Covid variant because of all the “symptoms” being added. Including now a high pulse rate and intense fatigue. Um, like exercise?
Problem is? We don’t know how this var will work out in the long-term, so while we are waiting for data, markets could drift up in a complex wave 4 before some (next, scarier, cue fear-mongers) set of medical outcomes in unveiled. Then we could see a larger Wave 3(v) down. Rally into Year End and then war in late January or early February. Seems like a reasonable read.
Well, except for one thing: There are a number (less than half-dozen, but more than 2) future-predictive sources which have been using the word “zombie” as associated with the virus in times nearly here.
You can also see how there was an all-time (in past 5 years) peak set by Google search one year before the real deal bug started making the rounds.
What kind of data movement could account for a word like “Zombie” showing up in future-directed data and remote viewing and such?
Try this on: A variant (maybe a variant of variant) has a narcoleptic symptom? All it would take would be a specific spike involving orexin-A. As Wikipedia explains these:
“Orexins are highly excitatory neuropeptides that were first discovered in the brains of rats. It is a peptide that is produced by a very small population of cells in the lateral and posterior hypothalamus. Orexins strongly excite various brain nuclei (neurons) to affect an organism’s wakefulness by affecting their dopamine, norepinephrine, histamine and acetylcholine systems.
These systems work together to stabilize the organism’s sleep cycles. Once made, the orexin peptides can bind to the orexin receptor; which is a G protein-coupled receptor. This receptor senses molecules outside the cell and activates inside signal transduction pathways to elicit cellular responses.
Research shows that an absence of orexin-A appears to cause narcolepsy. Deficit amounts of orexin-A will make people sleepy and research suggests that by adding it back into the brain, narcoleptic effects will be reduced. The research determined how glucose inhibited a particular class of glucose-sensing neurons, which produce orexins. However, it is unknown how glucose suppresses the electrical activity of orexin cells.”
We would never go so far as to predict a Zombie angle to omicron/moronic will be found. BUT it might be a reason why the notion went through cyber-realms as a hard meme in the past with nothing scientific driving, to speak of.
Just wanted to mention that with unknown engineered viruses going around, and with the word-association being repetitive to the point of perhaps invoking a possible future for mass consciousness beings, a Zombie angle to one of these variants would be one of the least surprising things to see coming down the pike.
Or not… (Tabitha, pass that plot along to Stephen, please!)
Double-shot of cynicism juice, please:
MobRob is still on a roll…which (duh) seems more common in defund the police cities… Organized Retail Thefts Continue Over Thanksgiving Weekend. Why, who would have thought?
Yes, but does it make baguets? France rolls out new nuclear-powered attack submarine (defence-blog.com)
Speaking of foodies: Facing maple syrup shortages, Canada taps its strategic reserves – CNN
Are Muslim fundamentalists taking cues from Portland and Seattle uprisings? koran: Pakistan mob set fire to police station over Koran desecretion – Times of India.
With Slow Joe distracted by little issues like Ukraine, Iran is rattling their cup again: iran: Iran says ‘firmly determined’ to salvage nuclear deal.
And there goes a candidate: Matthew McConaughey Decides to Not Run for Texas Governor. Which brings us to “How many Texas can Beto fool?” No one around our part of the woods…
Pretty good article on Revolver recently: Are You Ready To Be An American Kulak? Passed along by our favorite Ecuador Ex-Pat.
So good that I passed it to our .mil affairs contributor – warhammer – for comment.
“Sobering article. Thanks. One shouldn’t be shocked or surprised, as the Leninist/socialists have adopted the tried and true Soviet/Communist tactics hook, line and sinker.
My 2 cents: The U.S. Left has pilloried the CIA and NSA for decades, but the 1947 National Security Act was put into law because American lawmakers realized that with the dawn of nukes, the only future war the nation could lose was an internal ideological one. Communism was the threat back then. Still is, but it wears many different uniforms today.
During WWII, the government justified the total patriotic propaganda blitz as a necessity in order to focus the population on a total dedication to the total war effort. It is not too far of a stretch to claim that the national propaganda effort has been infiltrated by the Left and redirected to fight a new total war – this one ideological and against the American Kulaks. Big tech oligarchs, socialist educators and progressive politicians are party to the purge.
As Pogo famously said, “We have met the enemy and he is us.” Our most cherished fundamental freedoms are being altered to mute our laws and the voices of our fellow citizens. Social media enforces the new methods of banishment. The law permits it. “
Although it would take too long to turn into a Peoplenomics report – because it could go book-length – spend some of your mental wait-states pondering this:
“How would human history be different if Genghis Khan, or Stalin, or Adolph, or Mao had all the power of social media at their fingertips?
Donald Trump had a once-in-a-lifetime chance to grasp it, but went off into minutia and personality conflict. But how, fellow Kulak, would Stalin have handled it?
Comments are always welcome around here.
Off to breakfast and then ordering lumber. Looking at perfect construction weather around here in coming weeks…
For now, Dow futures up 220 but the S&P and Nasdaq hint more like 400+ by the close. Not a recommendation…Ure on Ure own.
Write when you get rich,