Monday morning, our pre-open call was that “Market Puke Day is here.” Sure enough, the Dow dropped 433-points. On top of losses suffered in previous sessions.
With Ipecac Syrup Day over, the market today will pretend the world isn’t going to hell in a hand basket. The rising of sour bile might be held at bay until Thursday afternoon, but that’s only a guess. Markets will be closed Friday since Christmas falls on the weekend this year.
The 100-year debate whether “markets drive news” versus “news drives markets” continues in limbo. No matter how you slice it, the data isn’t particularly encouraging.
Let’s start with the latest Current Account report just out to see the latest Joe blow:
I’m thinkin’ we’re sinkin’.
Additional data drops this week will include GDP, CFNAI, and Corporate Profits tomorrow. Profits will be keenly watched since it may indicate how long the accounting funny business can keep “growing the economy” while actual worker numbers haven’t recovered.
U.S. peak employment occurred in December 2019 (at 158.735 million, seasonally adjusted data series LNS12000000). Our most recent employment level was 155.175 million. Which means we’re 2.24 percent behind three-years ago, roughly.
GDP tomorrow is also a meaningless measure. Because it’s measured in Dollars. Problem is? The Federal Reserve has blown up the Monetary Base in the H6 Money Stocks report to the tune of 28.76% year-on-year (basis October), they delay data release to help the delusion of normalcy along. Simplest “expectation setter” for 2022 is to look at monetary base inflation and back that out of GDP. (We suck.)
Conveniently, the monetary base inflation neatly explains the near 30% rise in housing prices. A fact remaining little-noticed in a country populated by sheep incapable of second-derivative thinking skills.
Thursday bring Durable Goods, the weekly U.I. filings and one of our favorite fairytales: the Personal Income and Outlays report. Clive Cussler, Agatha Christie, and Stephen King will all be proud, though some posthumously. The US has a lock on the Adventure-Mystery-Horror economics vertical.
The flailing federal balance sheet will be slipped out half an hour after the close Thursday, so you’ll be locked out of trading any bad news there until the pre-open session Monday.
We’re not the only ones calling out statistical BS: Time is out this morning wondering if The Economy Is Doing Well, Why Does It Feel Like a Disaster?.
One-word answers: Biden, democrats, wokees, media, idiots.
Pick A War – Any War
2022 will be the “Year of Wars” by our reckoning. While the case that Covid-19 is a bioweapon is solid, whether it’s release was accidental is debated. Either way, future historians will likely picture its release as a “softening tool” during this lead-in to global war.
Near as we can see it, if you mash-up historical predictions such as Nostradamus which Stu (G.A. Stewart) keeps track of on “The Age of Desolation” website, and some 30-plus-year studies on cyclical economics done by my consigliere, plus inputs from other websites where look-ahead views are reported, looks like 2022 might roll out like this:
- January: After the Russian Orthodox Christmas (Jan 7) the Russians will likely invade the eastern portions of Ukraine.
- Ukraine has already paid for a strong Western response. If you don’t understand this, the Corporate Media has done its job, marginalizing the book Laptop from Hell: Hunter Biden, Big Tech, and the Dirty Secrets the President Tried to Hide so people don’t see how crime families work.
- We’d expect war not later than mid-February in Europe, but Russia will move before this because NATO is pouring massive arms into the region on the phony pretext of “war games.” See Ukraine planning 10 war games with participation of foreign troops next year, if you’re not tracking.
- Weather in the Taiwan Strait will likely decide the precise timing of China’s nearly concurrent “reunification” with Taiwan. A very good backgrounder on the Strait (2014) is in Navigating the Black Ditch: Risks in the Taiwan Strait | Center for International Maritime Security. Pay special attention to the weather windows in the February-April period. Mets and weps, eh?
- These events, coupled with Europe going short on natural gas (and hence reasonable energy) will result (along with missing Taiwanese made semiconductors) in the U.S. entering a second major long wave economic down cycle in Spring 2022, as we see it.
The word is now going out in diplomatic circles as the US State Department issues ‘do not travel’ warnings to Ukraine. We’ve been telling you for months this ramp up would be coming.
Long expiration put options for mid 2022 are admittedly risky. But the 7th vaccine booster, or whatever the money printing scam is by then, is not a substitute for a viable economy. Functionally, long expiration options may be our “scratch tickets” for 2022.
The Slo Spendaholics
Although the U.S. is in actual decline, the making-up of money (resulting in monetary inflation) has covered up the sins of the West quite well.
The problem is the recent Joe Manchin balk at the “spending our way to wealth” scheme here in Nuevo Venezuela, is there’s no evidence of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) gains through massive artificial inflation. Recent cases, including the former Soviet Union, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela may only be construed as successes if you move decimal points for a living. Otherwise, standards of living crater.
As stories roll by like Manchin Tanked Biden Spending Bill Due to Rude WH Statement: Ally, there’s also a silver lining to the “Gang that Couldn’t Vote Straight” roaching their spending spree: If Biden’s Spending Package Is Toast, Then so Are These Tax Hikes.”
Meanwhile, Biden’s climate spree is on the rocks for now, too.
Lockdowns abound: Israel lawmakers approve US travel ban to curb Omicron. The hysteria continues to ramp with stories like As Omicron surges, Biden to expand testing and warn unvaccinated. We won’t even bother watching Slo on the tube tonight, since Biden’s more detached from reality than ever, going into this.
Fact is that the vaccines don’t really work well. If at all with Omicron. Why, just this morning Newsweek reported First Omicron Death in U.S. Was Reinfection—A Warning to Those Who’ve Already Had COVID. We continue sequestered in the woods.
While it’s nice, if you sell test kits, reports that Biden to pledge 500 million free COVID-19 tests to counter omicron surge, the lack of actual data is alarming, and the statistical misstatements are dishonesty incarnate. The math lesson in Relative vs Absolute Risk Reduction (rumble.com) remains critical to understanding how Big Pharma pimps “relative risk reduction” instead of the more honest “absolute risk reduction.” But you knew all this, right?
Big Pharma really needs Covid to keep rolling in the profits, though. Especially since Doctors ‘should avoid dishing out pills to Brits with mild depression and encourage exercise’, NHS watchdog says. This is refreshingly close to good medicine, for a change. Of course, Big Pharma will have to block such talk here…
Environmental porn du jour: What Would Europe, the US, Do with One Billion Climate Refugees?
Call center wait time impacts? Philippines typhoon: Death toll from Super Typhoon Rai (Odette) rises further as areas remain cut off from help.
“A third of the oceans bittered” watch: Operator files for approval of Fukushima plant water release. Hint at another oil disaster in the wings? The “bittering” may appear as data clusters.
Drug Business Models evolving: Major shift in Mexico drug cartels’ business as the naturals lose favor and synthetics are on the rise.
Around the Ranch
I am called to apologize to lawyers. You see, my consigliere, one of those JD/CPA whizzes, took issue with my suggestion that all lawyers should be banned from lawmaking because of conflict of interest. My reasoning was that every time government defines a new crime (or carve-out) there’s at least three lawyers involved, two on either side plus one on the bench.
“Not all lawyer legislators were bad…” he insisted. Yet, as we reviewed just American Presidents, we had to go all the way back to Abe Lincoln to find a “good” lawyer-office holder.
In the interest of integrity, I will cede the point. (At least until the massive annual retainer is negotiated, at which time I reserve the right to weasel.)
Quest to Beat Aging is on tap for Peoplenomics subscribers tomorrow. Runs north of 10,000 words and will be both a report and .PDF.
Winter officially begins in an hour, or two. Terrible weather here in East Texas with the outlook for 81F and sunny for a high Christmas day. It will be cool enough today to leave the red jug wine outside for cooling.
We are in the annual crustal shift extremes, so don’t be surprised with an earthquake or several. The loop is astronomical alignments birthed >> ancient holidays, but those same alignments increase >> quake odds. Which is why holidays seem to be strange attractors to quakes. Good Friday, Boxing Day, and so on.
Write when you get rich,