First major story this morning, although not directly financial, involves the big 7.9 earthquake that happened overnight up in the Gulf of Alaska and which has spawned a Pacific Basin tsunami alert after a 32-foot wave was detected. So is it a big deal?
Clearly, the answer is no – and it should stay that way unless a wave shows up unexpectedly somewhere like Hawaii or Australia and causes problems. But, for now, looks like an event without the capital E. Except to remind us that we are back in “earthquake season” as the placid past few years of solar-driven warming is now into cooling and we will be expecting more EQ activity until we’re on the far side of the solar progression cycle. Call it 3-7 years from now because we’re not to solar minimum, yet.
Here’s an interesting Quake-related question: Could this mean a whole continent-sized magma movement is underway around the North Pacific? That is, is the quake related to the distant Volcano blowing off in Japan?
Meanwhile, I’ve been on a 50-year slow burn over the stupid US Atomics Tests at Amchitka Island. Seems to me (meaning without data backup) that the whole north Pacific has been less stable ever since… But hey, maybe the land bridge is coming back and we just haven’t gotten the memo yet. Being a nutter in the woods I might not be on the distro list…
Last week I put out several charts both “in the clear ” here on the free side and more on the Peoplenomics.com side. about how Bitcoin was likely in a downward trading trend channel.
As is our practice, we have called it “dead-to-nuts” right. We are in the trend channel down as evidenced this morning with Bitcoins trading in the $10,300 range.
I don’t think I need to toot our horn too loudly here, except to say that we’ve called this one pretty much spot-on since the channels became clear. This is the same approach (trend channels and Elliott – coupled with our own Aggregated Markets theory – that has kept Peoplenomics.com readers long the market since November of 2016 while so many other market letters have gotten it wrong.
Not our problem.
To point, though: There are two ways you can play the technical analysis game. One is by intensive mathematical operations. Take Gerald Appel’s MACD [moving average convergence/divergence], for example, described here. Damn-fine useful indicator. BUT, traders think largely in non-mathematical, experiential terms. The most recent feeling outweighs older feelings. And this is what seems to give rise to Elliott waves. But, even these can be misleading unless they are used in expert fashion by people like my friend Robin Landry.
Channels, you have to understand, help to clarify where you are in an Elliott count and it’s why our short to intermediate-term outlook for Bitcoin is a grind down to much lower levels from here. In other words, while they can rally to the top of the trend channel, this is a wave 3 down. Under Elliott rules, the third wave must be larger than the first wave. So when the first wave down was from 19,500 down to the 13,500 area, we can expect the decline from the top of the wave 2 bounce (around 17,000) to be (on average) 1.5 times the decline of wave 1.
This seems to portend a drop of Bitcoins to 11,000 in wave 3 down – and we’re in that area already. EXCEPT some of the data is crooked in the sense that it is filtered by coinsters to take out the flash/momentary excursions. We had that conversation a week, or so back, if you’ll remember: What is an allowable momentary data spike’s size before it matters???
Going through my cat-eared books on technical analysis, that’s not in the book, but several people have captured screen-shots of the wave 1 down breaking through under 10,000. This means that even if this decline turns out to be a three wave corrective monster and Bitcoin goes up from here, we might STILL see spike lows in the $3,000 range before this is all over.
From there, if there’s a fifth wave – which would be the likely outcome if regulator pressure continues to build – as it is now doing – then we will ultimately see Bitcoins down in the 383 to 850 range before the next big wave up starts.
But THEN comes the questions whether it will be the same Bitcoin or whether that will be when a heads-up government steps in and effectively BUYS ALL BITCOINS and turns it into a nation-backed currency.
Sure, the coiners hype that Venezuela (or whoever) is doing that, but no, it would need to be (in marketing terms) a Name Brand player. Australia-New Zealand and larger (not to mention more solvent) to pull it off. Japan comes to mind because they have so much skin-in-the-game already. Bitcoins, for Japan, would make an excellent two-tier currency; one Central Bank backed (or nominally so) while the other would be a populist currency perhaps tied to fungibles like a market basket of commodities.
How does a “measure of wheat, a measure of oil” sound? Toss in an RFID chip and there’s you’re whole work out for the Mark of the Beast….and that becomes a global….but enough. We can see there is still time to make money and continue trying to live the good life in the bad world… Where were we? Oh yeah…,
FBI Election Fraud
When I laid it out earlier, a goodly number of people though “Ure’s gone up around the bend, now…” But, here we are and the dirty details are continuing to point exactly where we suggested. (Don’t you hate it when we’re right so often?)
In this morning’s Dirty Tricks report:
We’re reading over here like persons at the highest levels of the FBI formed something of a “Secret Society” to illegally oppose and undermine the election of president Trump immediately after the election.
Come close enough for home use to the definition of Treason, doesn’t it? Here we go…
“…the crime of betraying one’s country, especially by attempting to kill the sovereign or overthrow the government.“
Yes sir, when you have people within the Justice Department and FBI plotting to overthrow president Trump’s election, that sure reads to us like treason.
Of course, since so many texts/emails have now be “disappeared” to keep the American public from losing faith in “law enforcement” it is no surprise that this is both bigger than Watergate and there will likely be a second special prosecutor appoints – this one to investigate the Mueller anti-Trump fishing expedition – which we’ve call it from the start.
Ultimately, the attempted coup leaders will be found, we expect, within the Clinton, Obama, Lynch conspiracy that also stole a fair election chance from Bernie Sanders.
Sanders, we figure, is still being kept in check from speaking, by the charges pending against his wife. Charges modulated by the same FBI that apparently conspired at the highest levels against Trump.
Don’t you love it when most of the country STILL doesn’t believe the Clinton-Obama-Lynch Coup Theory? (COLCT)? Why. it’s like waking up on a stranger planet….every morning!
I should note for the record that we still hold law enforcement – including the FBI – in great respect and most are sincerely protecting and defending (the Constitution). But it must be a bitch to work when there’s a clown posse at the top. Can’t tell you how many law enforcement agencies I’ve heard this from over the years.
Trump won. Won’t read that from the NE agitprop outlets, though. Hand wringing continues.
The GOP strategy of “telling it like it is” – namely that the democrats were putting the interests of illegal aliens ahead of the interests of America, worked.
Deep States lost their “free vacation” this year. Oh my…
Trump Moves on to Trade
The US is imposing some tariffs on overseas goods.
India’s pissed: “India’s Modi defends free trade as the US raises tariffs.”
Toughski you-know-whatski… Every other country in the world uses backdoor policies to price US goods out of their markets.
Jeez…how many call centers and support departments do we want to bring home? I can’t count the ways, lol…
BTW, India is still playing the “climate card” yet they are among the last to have to comply. Paris was a joke. Everyone complies at once, or Trump’s right it’s a crappy deal. Gosh, Obama et al had the fix in deep on climate…’mazing!
I don’t disagree entirely on climate. Where I part ways with the climate simps (as in simpletons) is that we ALL (whole world) play at the same time, or screw ’em. Fair’s fair…unless you’re the US, then punish US, right? Wrong…
Back in the Money Pits
Markets to open flat.
Bitcoin could bounce along the $10,000 psychological line for a day to weeks – we’re still in a down trend.
And tomorrow, Peoplenomics is a “close hold” so only subscribers will get the two key insights there tomorrow.
Back with more free-thinking Thursday here, so ya’ll come on back, yah hear? I’m gonna go look and see how Ellie Mae is going on breakfast…