Markets: How High is Up?

The difference between a fundamental analyst and a technical analyst is pretty simple.

The fundamental analyst looks to the news flow going into markets, and today they might be wondering about the financial future of the European Union.

The reason would be that the EU has just tried to stick Britain with a 1.7-billion Euro bill to keep the mishmash of bad governance in power.  That’s like getting stuck for $2.15 billion USD.  Ouch!

The fundamental people will sit back and explain how the weakness in Europe could seep into markets next week.  They’ll point to things like the Dr. in NYC who has Ebola and how CDC is now in Panic Fighting II over this, with a political lawyer in charge…good gravy!

And as the topping on the cake:  The sick doc apparently road the subway just hours before

As I wrote over on our site:  The catch-concept is “insulation.”  And that doesn’t happen outside Rural America, sorry.  So back to money for as long as it matters:

The technical analyst, though, on days like this one, keeps the TV on in their office, mainly for amusement.  That’s because they know that all possible news and prospects are already fully discounted in the market, and once you see and understand how markets move (using a combination of Elliott waves, trend channels, and the MACD and such) then it doesn’t matter what’s on the boob tube.

Charts tell it all, is how they look at it.  And then there are the rare people who see it all…

So I’ve been keeping in touch with my friend Robin Landry and we’re still not sure how all this works out.  Time will tell, and the kind of “line in the sand” in here is the S&P 1,980 level.

If the market can climb the present wall of worry and put in a number of closing sessions at (or above) 1,980, then maybe the worst is over, and we will still have a major 5-up before the gates of Hell open financially.

On the other hand, if we turn down from here, then a trip down to 1,740 in the S&P firms up, and if that fails, even 1,540 comes into view.  But worse than that would be that it would mean we really are in a terrible Bear Market, and that beings up the retest of the 2009 lows (6,6500 on the Dow, remember it?).

The problem at that kind of decline is that while we could bounce skyward from there, it would then likely be a 4th wave rally, and that gets us back to that ultra long-term expectation of an S&P under 1,000.  Landry doesn’t talk much about it, but it’s in the data.

Even so, most people won’t really care.  Things like prepping, getting ready for hard times, and all the rest of it seems positively …silly…as long as things seem normal every day.

But keep an eye on Europe.  The EU experiment in Super Government should be instructive – and just like Ebola, should be quickly isolated.

That’s what David Cameron will be trying to do, but hate to say it, the Unemployed Kingdom has already been exposed to the contagious of big government, human replacement by robots and software, so it’s just a matter of time.

But here’s the connection most people will miss because it is subtle:  The EU is planning to embark on an ambitious project to “Reduce Greenhouse Gases by 40 Percent.”

Why do you think they are doing that?

Right!  Climate Change is the new “serial faux industry” just like “terrorism””

Leaders of the Western World all know that without jobs, there will be no taxes and the global governance dream will implode and life will be Depression-like in now time.

So we need to make up bogeymen because that’s an excuse to tax and spend even more.

There is no happy ending to it…so we just sit here in the Outback waiting for it to come along, knowing that climate change would have never gotten as far as it has without some major money on the table.

So we FTM – follow the money –= and sure enough, as always, Everything’s a Business Model.

Cameron will piss and moan about the EU but only up to a point.  After which (wink, wink, nudge-nudge) there will be a British bailout of Europe and then the Brits will ramp up their own version of climate panic to keep the indentured paying more and more for less and less.

And the gun in Cameron’s back?  Word that the UK economy is faltering badly.

Not unexpected given Consumer Super-Saturation.  How many cells phones do you need and how many vehicles?  Excess consumption models eventually all blow up and only things like “Cash for Clunkers” can keep the economy alive.

Sooner, or later, government will make it illegal to own a car more than 10 years old, and you’ll be required to have two phones.  All to ensure the excess  consumption model doesn’t collapse.  Toss in 100,000 –300,000 new Ebola jobs and you’ve got Economic Nirvana.  (I’m gonna go puke, I think.)

Look at the Tyvek suits and Ebola screener hiring and tell me Ebola isn’t an economic stimulus.

It’s like the game Charades…..although the use of the word “like” may not be optional.

So Much for Gun Laws

An officer has been critically wounded in NYC in what?  A hatchet attack.”

Normally, I’d expect the left wing to jump up and demand registration of hatchets, but they’ve done fine with their “register people” agenda, as is, so no need.

Tell Me How This Works?

Eric Holder (outgoing Attorney General’s) wife gets executive privileged out of disclosure in the Fast and Furious case?  Consider the source, but also the implications.

Idiots Ahoy!

I got my first email just a few minutes ago with the subject line:  “Black Friday starts now!”

The gulf between the vox populi and the corpgov marketeers just keeps getting wider and wider, don’t it?

I expect next I will get the first of the Black Friday (shopping day after Thanksgiving is the biggest retail day, most years) sometime in July.

But the reality of where we are as a country comes through in the gate receipts of major league baseball….and in television ratings.  Which are way down for the World Serious this year.

Speaks reams about the country:  baseball is a gentleman’s sport.  Where is the audience going?  Football.  Learn to hit, run, and fall down.  Which doesn’t say much for where we’re going as a country, but people self-select the future, I suppose, and the stats don’t lie.

Or, so a technical analyst would say.