Markets: Exactly As We Said

Last Thursday morning, before the open, I told you what we believed was in the offing:  A good-sized market decline this week.  Specifically, this part matters:

And based on this (wildly delusional, incredibly speculative, and obvious whack-job) line of thinking, we anticipate the S&P 500 could trade down to 2,473.98 and (again this is whack-job forecasting) by the end of next week.:

Since, not a single reader sent roses, we will point out that Wednesda following Jerry & the Fed bumping rates up Wednesday, the S&P traded as low as 2,475,75 Wednesday,

How many websites FOR FREE have called the S&P within 1.77 points 168-hours in advance, I ask you?  Only one comes to mind but maybe there are others….

This is why is a steal at $40-bucks a year, by the way.  We occasionally figure outl this, or that.  Tell Santa to pony-up.

The next move – based on our newly-evolved system of “trading boxes”  laid out in our Peoplenomics report yesterday – should be a nice solid bounce.  But of short duration.

Unfortunately, the specific bounds of the bounce are a little more difficult, but given how our timing boxes hint at future, we’re expecting a rally into either Christmas Eve Day (the 24th, Monday) or to Boxing Day the day after Christmas which would put us at the 26th.  After that, we’ll be rejoining the dust bunnies under the bed because the next low in our work ought to be along shortly…well, let’s say that for the Peoplenomics subscribers; the folks with the loge tickets.

Point is, when we look at the “only chart that matters” this morning, there’s not a lot to say except that the Fed, being (in theory) smarter than us, seems to think that raising rates in here is a non-political, policy-neutral thing.  A pop to Christmas might rhyme with the yellow circled pop in 1929.

Was the Fed Right to Raise?

Absolutely not.

There are plenty of warning signs on the horizon that the US is heading into a recession next year and, in our view, the Fed is acting in a totally partisan way that has just won the White House for democrats in 2020 the same way Hoover was left holding the bag in 1929 when the Fed raised too much in the lead-in to the 1929 collapse.

I listened to the Fed Chair waffle his way through reasonable questions, but he stuck by his guns holding that the Fed outlook for 2019 is a “very solid one.”

Male Cow Crap.

A reality check of some headlines overnight reveals, among other things, that the “U.S. Population Grew at Slowest Pace in More Than 80 Years.”  As this trend continues, something we call the Reality Ratio (price to dividends paid by leading companies) falls apart.  Company share prices are comprised of two things, understand:  What they can pay in the way of a return to investors via a dividend plus what the shareholders look forward to in terms of share prices. If the future isn’t brighter than now, why buy?

I think FedEx is a pretty skoocum company, so when I read stories like “FedEx slashes profit targets, will offer buyouts” I wonder “How did the Fed miss that?”

Also, how did they miss:

  • Oil slumps 4 percent to lowest in a year as stock markets sink
  • World stocks slide as Fed aggravates recession fears
  • Asia’s central banks have almost no reasons to hike rates in 2019
  • Aluminum plunges, Rusal shares soar as U.S. to lift sanctions

When the Fed goes off half-cocked as I think they have this time, the cost of borrowing (cost of doing business) goes up.  And that means less income falls to the bottom line, or down low in the financials where it MIGHT be available for a distribution of profits to shareholders (dividends).  When the money available to pay out declines, the “story” among investors dims. We greedy capitalist pricks buy based on future prospects of higher prices and what Jerry and the Fed did wasn’t in our interests.

If the price of a stock is $100 in today’s market, we see the ripple outs of excessive rate hikes a year or two out.  As dropping the future price of the same stock to something like $90-bucks.

This is spread over billions of transactions on the consumer side and it doesn’t show up as corporate dividend decreases until a year, or further out, but it’s the same damn mistake the Fed made in 1928 and 1929 believing they could raise rates at the top of a bubble. History begs to differ.

Yeah, they can do that.  But it speeds up the bubble-popping process.  But to us, it looks like the Fed decided the democrats should win 2020 and there should be a spanking of the economy, their POPPING of the growth bubble yesterday, which will be unseen for 3-9 months.

Let me tell you why.  Say you own a company and you have dead-level year-on-year sales.  Your raw materials costs have not been going up because globally, we’re still in a deflationary environment.  Still, thanks to the Fed hike, your suppliers are going to bump up prices for your raw materials by a few bucks in 2019.

When this happens, old Harry Zawickee out on the production line will have his hours cut.  That’s because your company needs to show a bottom line, either to the shareholders if public, or the spouse if you’re a married head of a small business.  Harry’s hours are cut a bit…and everyone is happy.  Harry works harder or…else!

Except for the Satellite TV outfit Harry watches.  Harry dumps all his premium channels and what happens?  Thousands of other “Harry’s” around the country do the same thing.

Inside the Satellite provider now Q1 of 2019, marketing warfare breaks out.  “That new fiber technology is killing us” says the sales manager.  “Toughski shitsky, give me revenue or I’ll give you death!” screams the greedy-prick CEO.

This goes on for a quarter, or two, but in the end  (coincident to the market high of 8/31/2019 ahead of next fall’s Collapse Part 2), regardless of reason, the sat dish outfit earnings show a decline and they jump in the drowning pool with the rest of the telecoms that begin to suffer, oh, next summer, say.

While the market sails up to a rebound high from the decline we have been in since this turd of a market began to roll over in 2018, by then  – going into next fall – it will be clear that not just telecom, but everything else is no longer growing.  “It’s the costs, George, it’s the costs…we need them to come down further and faster….” explains the small business owner.  “We got a nice bump from the $30 oil, but it’s not enough…

By next fall, as all the costs of Fed largess ripple through the teetering economy, the Fed will realize (because the public is really smarter than the Fed) that they overplayed their hand.  Oh well, bankers don’t like Trump anyway.  Besides, bankers will have plenty of “cover to hide under” in 2019 with the impeachment trial the democrats will be grandstanding before their fellow Fools on the Hill.

Average prices of homes sold will in coming months begin to decline…and few will connect the dots.  A young couple will still need to pay whatever they can for a home (say $200,000, so $2,000 a month for note and taxes) but the amount going to the seller will drop a bit because money will be going to whom?  The Banksters, of course.

Not everyone, every sector, or every vertical market will suffer equally.  But, over time, as the Greater Depression of 2020 begins to firm up, the price of oil will drop into the 20’s and global temperatures will be in continuing decline because the NOAA outlook is for an extended solar minimum.  Yes, a fine time will be had by all.

Speaking of climate change:  You did see the tornado this week up in Port Orchard Washington? )  Across the waves 12 miles as a seagull flies west of Seattle?  As KOMO news reported here, this was the strongest (F2) in the state since 1986.  Which was, oh by the way, where in the solar cycle?  But hey, don’t mind the DDNJITW (data-driven nut job in the woods).

The tornado of 1986 in Washington also came proximate to a solar minimum, too – the sunspot cycle was bottoming but would recover to a high almost 6 years later: in February of 1991.  Lesson for all the sober boys and girls this AM?  Freaky weather happens when the Sun’s napping-out…We’re also due for another big quake.

While “climate” change has been continuous since the Ice Age, the monetization slam is a new scam.  People gloss over longer-term data but here’s the kind of historical snippet (this from 2014) that keeps us sluicing through historical data over at  Remember this is a 2014 story but relevant:

“The National Weather Service says the summit of Mount Mitchell, N.C., recorded a low of 24 degrees below zero Tuesday morning, the lowest temperature recorded there since Jan. 28, 1986 – the same day cold weather caused the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster at Cape Canaveral, Fla.”

All of which tells us what?  Other than look for new lows this winter and next at Mount Mitchell?  Oh, how about “Don’t be an astronaut till things warm up?

Back to point:  The Fed hike telegraphs the following:

  • Democrats will win in 2020
  • The purchasing power of money will be further watered-down
  • This in turn will help the Gold, Silver-Palladium complex which are (no surprise) up today
  • The market will have a short pop maybe through Christmas.
  • The the REAL point is:  When a Bankster says “Well, the outlook has cooled, but we’re going to raise rates anyway…”

Don’t trust ’em as far as you can throw them.  They are driving under the influence of Variable Value Money.  They need to take Goldalizer and get into Interest Rehab.  The Federal Debt is going higher and until we actually pay down something on it, this is the track we’re on..

Oh, look:  futures market is going positive.  “Why is we ain’t surprised?”  Bheck back with us before the Ides of January.  And bring a barf bag.  You may need it January 8-10.  You can thank me later.

Collusion or Bad Russians?

We offer without comment (except to say the Russians ARE trying to influence American elections) this State Department press release:

“Today (Wednesday, right?), the Departments of State and the Treasury took joint action against Russia’s continued and blatant disregard for international norms.

Specifically, the State Department added 12 individuals and entities to the List of Specified Persons (LSP) pursuant to Section 231 of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) for being part of, or operating for or on behalf of, the defense or intelligence sector of the Government of the Russian Federation. These persons were involved in a wide range of malign activities, including attempts to interfere in the 2016 U.S. election, cyber-enabled attempts to undermine international organizations, and the brazen use of a chemical weapon in an assassination attempt abroad. Several of these persons were related to Project Lakhta, a broad Russian effort which includes the Internet Research Agency that has sought to interfere in political and electoral systems worldwide. As a result of this action, any person determined to knowingly engage in a significant transaction with any of these persons will be subject to CAATSA Section 231 sanctions.

In addition, the Treasury Department designated several members of Russia’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) and individuals and entities related to Project Lakhta, including the twelve persons added to the LSP. Treasury also designated Victor Boyarkin for having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of Oleg Deripaska.

The sanctions and listings undertaken today are one part of an aggressive stand against the irresponsible acts directed by the Government of the Russian Federation. Russian intelligence services’ cyber operations continue to seek to undermine democratic elections and delegitimize international organizations. Additionally, it is clear that Russian intelligence operatives used a military grade nerve agent to carry out an assassination attempt inside the borders of our closest ally, a violation of Russia’s obligations under the Chemical Weapons Convention.

We will not tolerate attempts to interfere in our democratic process, and we will side with our allies and partners against Russian subversion and destabilization. We will continue to work with our allies and partners to take collective action in response to irresponsible and malicious acts supported by Russia and its intelligence agencies.

Only question is what did Trump know and when?


Third of rare Scotch whiskies tested found to be fake.

PC Victimhood Rising Dept.

Lacking real growth (new products and pop growth) we see how yet-another monetization is ascending:  We file these under “Let’s make CLOTHING racist“…

Forever 21 Slammed for Advertising Black Panther-Inspired ‘Wakanda’ Sweater Using a White Model.

The story (and the comments) all go to support our evolved view that digital media causes mental disorders.  We look forward to the DSM 6 which will replace DSM 5 and please, lots of focus on social if we could?.

Now, can I have my do-rag back?

What do you mean, that’s not a do-rag?

Oops!  The Writing Fedora…

Off to run more numbers until, as always, we’ll have moron the ‘morrow… Email me if you need to know where to drop off a new Porsche for us…

38 thoughts on “Markets: Exactly As We Said”

  1. It is a shame that the Democrats would rather destroy this country for personal gain. Aren’t they suppose to govern instead of seeking revenge. The people elected PT & that should be respected, but it is not. Instead the Democrats depise those who voted for PT. I feel this country is becoming anti white (whites are made to feel guilty) except for rich white liberals who are being conned (like Mark). Yes, reverse discrimination. Look at South Africa to see the outcome.

    • ECS,
      I bash Trump, you bash me. That’s fair Right? Except one small detail…I am not being conned…you are. The destruction of America is being choreographed for his own personal monetary and egotistical gain by Donald Trump himself.

      All Trump supporters should read two books…The first I have talked about…Bob Woodward’s, Fear…But, there is another. I just finished it….An excellent book by Michael Lewis called The Fifth Risk:Undoing Democracy.

      I know Michael Lewis. My daughter used to coach his daughter in softball. Funny story…My daughter was recruited for a paid position to coach a 14 year old travel ball team and was told that there was a meeting at one of the dad’s Home in Berkeley. After getting to the home, she called me and said “Dad, I am at this guy’s house…His name is Michael Lewis. Have you heard of him?”. I said…you mean the guy that wrote Moneyball and the Blind Side? She replied…”OhYeah, that makes sense and would explain the photos of him, Brad Pitt and Sandra Bullock in his den.” My daughter is not as voracious of a reader as I am.

      He lives near the hills in Berkeley and yes, he has written some groundbreaking novels that became top grossing movies, like Moneyball, The Blind Side and The Big Short. I have read each and everyone of his books. The Fifth Risk is also being shopped for a screenplay. It’s about the bungling transition team of Trump as it relates to many of the Department positions that to this date have not been filled and the consequences of confusion and chaos that has ensued. I smell a comedy.

      “Trump is a complete and utter joke”. That is a quote from both books that has been repeated hundreds of times via dozens of aides and staff members of his administration…The chaos is out of control. I guarantee that after each and every Trump supporter reads those two books, that there is now way…given the details and research each author poured into them, that any of you will support Trump again.

      This is just in though… Sources are saying that Trump will quit soon…in a deal that saves his family’s involvement in the ruse of the century (Don Jr., Eric, Ivanka and Jared) in exchange for his resignation. We will see, but it’s a fact now that Russia interfered with our election…as George stated today…The key is…How much did Trump or his family know and how did they participate? From what I hear…It is quite extensive.

      • Mark, you are being conned & don’t even know it. It is going to be a shame the world our elementary youngsters will experience.

        As Mike said, “You however know the evil your side represents.” And I add “and you don’t even see it”. I don’t think you are an evil person, just one being minipulated by your environment.

        When you are 75, I can hear you saying, ECS was right, I should have drank his Kool Aide.

        Also, Bob Wordword is a lying snake looking to make a buck off you & your friends who think he is a journalist. A shyster would be closer. I would prefer to read books about real American heroes who deserve our respect. Not books by Berkeley intellectuals who disrespect our freedoms.

        In the end, Shakespeare’s phrase will prevail, “hoist with his own petard”, is an idiom that means “to be harmed by one’s own plan to harm someone else” or “to fall into one’s own trap”, implying that one could be lifted (blown) upward by one’s own bomb, or in other words, be foiled by one’s own plan.

      • Mark, a couple of quick comments:
        1. While Trump is responsible for nomination, it is the Senate that is responsible for confirmation. The Republicans resorted to procedural tactics in 2013 to delay some of Obama’s nominations after Reid changed the Senate rules for ending a filibuster from 60 votes to 51. Democrats replied in kind after losing the Senate majority and Trump’s election. Some of the blame is Senate inertia and partisanship.
        2. There is an unspoken bias here that Bureaucracy is Good. Trump has been challenging this mindset. He enacted a hiring freeze for government employees when he took office. At the higher levels, he has stated he does not believe all those appointments need to be filled. He does come from private business, a very different operating environment than not for profit government bureaucracy. Which leads to my last point…
        3. The chaos and confusion, as well as so many staffers saying Trump is a joke…that sounds like a clash of cultures between a status quo entrenched bureaucracy and results oriented, bottom line businessman. One is alien to the other. So, yes, I believe Trump may very well appear that way to the career public servant. But the reverse is certainly true as well. Career politicians and bureaucrats would not do well in the private sector. I dont seem to recall many of those types moving to CEO-type positions.

      • “for his own personal monetary and egotistical gain”

        I totally agree.. He is.. and that is why I like him as our president …I don’t disagree with a lot but I think you see things from a totally different perspective than I do. The whole political system in my opinion has been corrupted and our constitution slowly being whittled down to the point that we are all basically slaves..

        I live and breath in a world that is so different from yours that I can guarantee you that you couldn’t survive in my world without your resources and connections, with only the resources that I have available to me and I in turn would have a really hard time surviving in yours it would be fun to try though. Each of our problems and concerns are totally different and so is the perspective of our country and the direction it is heading in.
        It is totally in Trumps best interest to keep the american economy strong. It is in your best interest to keep the economy and dollar strong as well. to keep our industry strong and our people working..
        I am more than positive that you are right again on your other statement..

        “the bungling transition team of Trump as it relates to many of the Department positions that to this date have not been filled and the consequences of confusion and chaos that has ensued.”

        The reason is Trump isn’t a politician and his motivations had nothing to do with politics.. and as we all know DC is in a bubble all of their own where very few real world world situations make any sense to them at all and how politicians work and their ethics is completely different than the average citizen.
        they all have great Ideals when they first get to DC.. their motives are sound and honest. unfortunately I don’t think it takes very long before the only thing they see and hear is what is being shoveled at them and with money flowing so strong towards them they are lulled by the obvious influences they loose total real world contact with the citizens that vote them in.. the logic being tossed their way begins to look sound and without being in the real world they begin to see that viewpoint. Its easy similarly you get a guy that makes ten hours of overtime and this is a constant ten hours after a couple of months he begins to incorporate this into his mind as a constant then when it is gone.. wow… I remember when NAFTA was being drawn up I was reading that crap that our congress was reading and not giving it much thought.. I to thought heck that sounds great. The same thing when basic needs were deregulated. The night that the president was on tv talking about he just signed in the deregulation of the fuel industry. I had been working long hot hours painting trucks.. I was tired dusty and dirty clogged paint.. the sign at the gas station said 67.9 per gallon I thought oh heck that isn’t a bargain I will wait till tomorrow morning and get gas.. as I sat there watching the president on the television say that he said.. I did this so they could have the opportunity to charge you less by deregulating it.. the next morning gas was 109.9 I flipped.. it didn’t take very long for me to change my mind once I started seeing the changes.. health insurance was once given to everyone part time full time anytime and family coverage was a decent once jobs started to leave the country mom had to leave the kids at home alone or with a baby sitter.. the adult presence became a rarity.. eventually as jobs left dad worked one full one part time and mom worked one full time both tired.. the results I have noticed is inner city gangs instead of an adult presence at home.. you have cable tv and the internet and games now being the adult presence. our moral standards have been eroding since.. Healthcare insurance is rarely offered now most companies only see the executives have that as a benefit. Basic laborers are being forced to seek out federal assistance.. I chose to work day and night hours that most people won’t do rather than get federal assistance. Today a young couple cannot survive without it. Kids making a couple hundred grand a year find it hard to survive just imagine those working as your janitors.. back in the day most employers seen the staff as a work family today many can’t even tell you the name of those working on the lowest levels.
        My father worked for a man that had multi national company which it still is today.. I knew him by the nickname the colonel..met him when I was about five he gave me a whole case of cookies for my birthday gift. now I couldn’t work there because I was family and he had strict rules on family working for the same branch.But I could off load trucks for the drivers so as a teenager the drivers would want someone to off load while they slept in exchange I got a portion of what they got paid for off loading the vans.. one day I was in there and he was inspecting the warehouse and seen me took his suit coat off and jumped in to help we hoofed it off and the whole time we chatted about this and that.. years later I was working sacking groceries.. here is the colonel inspecting to see how his products were being displayed.. seen me again came over and we sacked groceries together for about a half hour the whole time is is asking me about my brothers and sisters and how everyone was doing and to wish my parents a happy fiftieth wedding anniversary etc.. he sold the company not long afterwards.. what is funny is here was a man that had thousands and thousands of employees.. my father was just a delivery boy.. yet this man knew all of us.. the same is said for other companies the older men before the changes kept work as family now it is more aggressive turned into a me industry very few employers know who it is that works for them.. much less their family members and the benefits that was once offered to everyone working is no longer around. What I like about DJT is his employee’s all feel he is accessible.. the retention of his employees is unheard of in today’s work market. a doorman today will still be working there twenty years from now.. every employee gets a meal.. he may be boastful and full of himself but somewhere along the line he figured it out.
        For me it is refreshing to have a president that is bucking the status quo in DC.. trying to keep the dollar strong to stand up to the money mongers tossing and corrupting our legislators..
        The wall.. good god.. why not let them enter legally…what is wrong with that having a legal immigrant..
        What is wrong with trying to keep the dollar strong to make the money he and you have stay strong instead of some one trying to destroy it and tear down the guys working for a living.
        Will he and has he done things that make me say WHAT… of course I wouldn’t expect him to do anything other than that..
        there is such an imbalance

        I think that if the oil companies keep helping that things could stay nice and strong.. and the depression we all see coming a ways off.. do the reverse pyramid on what the average wage earner makes and what the gallon of gas is.. they drop it another half buck or so.. and the economy won’t tank.. for me the sixty bucks they raised car insurance along with the two hundred they raised on health insurance is a killer.. money didn’t increase but this gas savings is a big one for me at least.. I just wish my car was an electric one like my wifes.. LOL..
        oh well I have ranted and raved again..
        I just hope that my perspective on things makes some sense to ..

      • ECS…I agree.. I think it was plato that once said..

        the destruction of a civilization happens with the corruption of its leaders and the ignorance of its people..

        Our leaders and the people have bought the puppeteers cool aide for so long that it is hard to recognize the truth.
        Hell they don’t even know what is in anything they vote on. that should be the first clue I am sure that what they are being told is being told to them so aggressively and since they have little real world exposure that they start to believe it ..

        I think DJT is doing the best he can and has accomplished a lot to without any support from anyone.
        He isn’t the politician he is a businessman that is trying to get and do the best for the average person.

        He is making waves waves that should have been made for decades.. he might quit.. good lord knows I would have caved a long time ago.. the open attacks on everything is absolutely endless Russian changing the voting.. my god I knew that our politicians sucked long before and it sure didn’t take anyone else to tell me that. In my way of thinking the average person knows it but feels defenseless and voted in DJT to stir things up maybe get our politicians to do something anything. yet they still haven’t done a damned thing just complain about the Russians that could care less about us… I think that viewpoint is a manipulation to by those that are truly in control..There is so much hogwash that it is so hard to tell what is true and real and what is not ..

      • My side is not the Democratic side. I am a middle of the road, and lean a bit right fiscally. I support the politicians that say “let’s work together for betterment of our country.”

        To tell you the truth, even though he is a Democrat, the one politician that really impresses the heck out of me is Beto O’Rourke. He is extremely intelligent, reasonable, doesn’t skirt issues or evade questions. I and many others think he is truly a guy both parties could work with to get this country back on track. Because right now under Trump…it is a hot mess.

        • My problem with Beto is that he has some of the markings of a “career politician.”
          A musician turned infopreneur may not be the answer for America…but we shall see…

      • “let’s work together for betterment of our country.”

        AMEN to that if only the would do that…..

        My personal favorite was Rand Paul for president but I voted for DJT just because I thought he could shake it up a little bit.. His company has such a good employee reputation that I would be proud to have been an employee of his… but then Rand Paul is basically for constitutionalism He would have gotten just as far with congress as DJT has.. We all know how the Congress basically laughed his read the Bills act off the floor.. and every time limits on how much exposure the puppeteers has on our congress is stopped cold in their tracks. Through the years the constitution and bill of rights has been raped so bad in the past few decades I fear what will be left for our grand children…
        I actually think we are at the tale end of the late great USA and our way of life has basically been changing towards a fourth Reich of sorts. After our Weimer depression and the horror it will toss onto those already struggling I think that is when the big switch will happen.. which scares the hell out of me and should terrify anyone with any great wealth..
        Here is an excerpt from an old brochure for the National socialist ethics..

        ” State ethics is a sort of synthesis between Utilitarian ethics (the happiness of the greatest number) and the ethics of Plato. For Plato, what is good is defined as what contributes to harmony (we might say what contributes to “peace”) and happiness.

        In addition, according to the ethics of Plato, the ultimate reason for doing what is moral is still a personal, individual one: to earn reward, in this life and the next, since individuals possess an immortal soul.

        From Utilitarian ethics State ethics derives the concept of the happiness of the majority; from Plato, it derives the concept of an ideal – or at least useful but always powerful, supra-personal – State, governed by laws made by law-givers who not only decide how prosperity, happiness and such like, can be attained, but who also possess the power, the authority, to make those laws enforceable.

        Essentially, State ethics means that what is wrong – what is unlawful – is what the State says is unlawful, and the State bases its judgement on either one or both of the following:

        a) on political or social ideas which form the basis for the Political Party, or movement, which is either elected into political power, or which seizes power.

        b) On a “mandate” from “the people” who are said to have given their approval, or consent, for the policies of the Government by voting for them. This is “utilitarian ethics” where what is considered right is what a majority of people agree is right, or feel is right.

        State Ethics can also be based, in part, on the prevailing religious ethic which is accepted, or is believed to be accepted, by the majority of people of a certain nation, State, or country.

        The quintessence of State ethics is that a State, a government, can and should introduce laws – which are enforceable by State-appointed officials such as the Police – to create a “good” society for its citizens, with their being punishment of those who contravene the laws which the State and its officials decide are “good” or “right”, or of benefit to “the people”.

        Thus State ethics depends upon abstract notions such as The State, “The People”, the “will of the people”, and upon concepts such as “democracy” where the “will of the people” is said to be made known and which gives the State its mandate, and its authority. In many ways, Marxism and similar political theories, are just versions of these concepts of The State, and The People. ”

        2nd. amendment anyone.. or how about how many rounds that have been stockpiled for the social workers alone..This time though I personally don’t think that the fourth Reich will indulge in Racism..or the eradication of a particular nationality. During Adolphs reign if you really look at it they were targeted during a great depression.. ( that could have been worked through just like this one that is coming up) the depression was so bad.. that all there was was the haves and the have nots.. the haves just happened to be the Jewish community that could only see what was good for them.. to top it off.. Hitler hated the jewish community because

        “Jewish Economic Power – At the time when World War 1 broke out, a majority of financial institutions, banks and large companies were controlled by Jewish people. Hitler blamed the loss of the war, the economic downfall of Germany and the bad decisions of the Weimar Republic on Jewish capitalism.”

        I had read a book some time back on the life of Adolph and there was a hint that he was born part Jewish and was abused as a child.. he blamed his mothers poverty on the prosperity and the control over everyone of the Jewish community that shunned him and his mother.. but then that was just something I read..

        the great divide has been happening.. it is obvious the changes that need to be made won’t for the same reasons why the Weimer depression happened.. this time what makes me curious is its pretty obvious that our legislators are being manipulated by a devious group of puppeteers and our legislators are totally blind to it or they are ignoring it.. the same thing is happening in other countries to.. where their leaders and legislators are being manipulated as well..they are also the ones with the control over the economy so it is all being orchestrated by them.. the only ones that aren’t are the Arabs.. maybe out of fear that the arabs live by laws that are thousands of years old and they live by them to the letter.. mess with me loose your head stuff.. the Arabs see this and I think they just slap it in the face of everyone.. like a solid silver limousine encrusted with diamonds LOL.. that is a slap in the face to everyone.. kind of like a wealthy man here will go out and buy a car pay way more for it than what it is worth.. not so much because it is a good car which it is.. and rides fine but more as a status symbol.. see I can buy this and drive it and you can’t .. sort of like that Bentley I test drove a few months back.. four years ago it was a 267,000.00 and change car.. the salesman told me I could own it for 15,000.00 if I made him that offer.. the car had less than ten thousand miles on it.. and it just got new brake pads.. ( 6,000.00 just for the pads mind you) whoever owned it rode the brakes afraid they would go to fast..
        anyway I am off on a rant here.. we all know it is coming and pretty much who will be targeted.. ( you can’t take anything more from those that don’t have anything now so think logically .. who would you have to target if you were the one percent that wanted it all. and the funny thing is the all they want is just an illusion to boot.)

        enjoy the wager scene.. doesn’t that sort of remind you of the puppeteers in control of the worlds populations… wars just for their entertainment.. I wonder what would happen if they actually put that power they wield to good rather than greed.. it could be impressive

  2. Why George what did you expect,as markets that’s been manipulated since 1987 with its pump and dump, we won’t let the market fail even if we have to break the law was Greenspan cry back then, as the biggest heist in history took place as they looted the working class and moved it to the 1%, and now its time to pay the piper.With worthless money ever increasing debt both government and people I wonder what one would expect,then we run around the world pretending that we are still the junkyard dog when in reality we are little more than a yapping poodle….

  3. After listening to Craig Hulet on Coast last night, I believe my opinion of “how things are” is vindicated. We regular folks out here in the bleachers have little to no effect on world events. We can only “read the tea leaves” and watch out for ourselves.

  4. Fed. Jay Powell did what his board of gov. wanted, raise rates.
    That was done to punish the US, for electing Trump.
    It is also the way to put the world into monetary depression.
    Lower the living standards around the world.
    Banksters will accumulate ownership and rule over more.
    Take world back to 17th or 18th century living.

  5. Dear Mr. Chairman,

    Oh, Seer of FRED by the Father of Waters, welcome we are to your tribal council boardroom broadcast centre.

    Silent is the flock? Uncle Jerry’s lump of col’ turkey just a drip in the bucket of rapids ahead?

    Tis the eve to make merry, don of a past new day will be putin place soon enough? Someone will be voted off the island? Has the immunity idol jumped the shark?

    Like Cher promises in 2019: “Here we go again”. Wisdom doesn’t get old? Must be something in the water.

  6. Back in the day when to busy to watch news found that charts were going to do what they are suppose to do and the news will chime in on cue.

  7. George, enjoy your insightful economic commentary a lot, and am glad that you have finally toned down the Trump cheerleading.

    But when will you wake up to the fact that the D’s water down the dollar by millions/sometimes billions (for things like food), while the Conservatives water it down by trillions?

    Trump is just the latest iteration of Conservatives looting of the Treasury. St. Reagan nearly tripled the national debt. And need we revisit W’s prolific spending? Those phonies Paul Ryan and Rand Paul are the same.

    Let’s face it. Conservative monetary policy is quite simple: Deficit stimulus pushing wealth up the food chain when Conservatives are in charge, and Recession when Libs are in charge to block wealth trickling back down . Best, Mike.

    • Mike, this is getting old. Again, you want to point to the debt under Reagan without acknowledging that Congress was controlled by Democrats. You want to sully Rebpulicans for trillions in debt while ignoring that half the current debt occurred under the Obama administration. It was also Obama that pushed a huge deficit stimulus through a Democratic Congress at the beginning of his first term. Your one sided view is simply being intellectually dishonest.

    • @ mike

      you do realize that the FED is the main problem for the currency problems this country has…and the DEBT…… in the FED out of thin air GIVES the politicians ALL the ‘money’ they desire…and CHARGES a vig……..

      PS…wealth is NOT measured in ‘fiat debt’ instruments ie US Dollar

  8. George, you’re brilliant, of course, and therefore you had me often confused in the past by occasionally mentioning a “potential” additional powerful upmove. I know from the past how powerful such moves can be, and therefore I liquidated my short position at the wrong time, therefore, no roses from me. Otherwise, excellent analysis every time!! However, do you still need an addition $40 per annum, equipped with wisdom of the sort that you have? I’ll promise to donate the amount to less fortunate people on the strrets that I walk, which walks are getting slower every other day. ;-(

    • Bruno, quite nice of you, but people who don’t pay for advice don’t value it – that’s my experience, anyway. Free things aren’t valued – which is why PN is what it is.

      • “Bruno, quite nice of you, but people who don’t pay for advice don’t value it –”

        That’s were I disagree with you, sorry! Your advice, in general, is completely out of the class of ‘money valuation.’ You are a priceless gem to society, and I sometimes wonder how you can manage all of this.

        But then again, I listen to Beethoven’s 4th and wonder also how a pianist can play this from memory. Some of us folks are simply gifted!

  9. The idiot racists at ForNever 21 are being led around by the nose. Instead of removing the white model, they should just add a black one next to it. That’s inclusion.

    I suppose it’s OK to have a store selling overpriced “fashion” stuff to a particular demographic. It’s just not newsworthy.

  10. The FED had no choice in raising rates. Foreign debt/obligations are SO MASSIVE not to compensate foreign lenders for loss of purchasing power would cause a run on the dollar flat-lining the US economy. Its a survival/band-aid solution with hell postponed to pay further down the road.

  11. I don’t often wander out into the fringe unless it is a Saturday night , but in terms of a “fit” to events as they manifested in 2018, here is an article from May 3rd that is well worth reading. Especially if you find yourself wrestling with the Conservative vs Liberal paradigm, which is much like the war on terror: Just never ending arguments in a constantly devolving civil discourse – and nothing ever gets accomplished. Consider the possibilities laid out in this article, and at least for a moment enjoy the mental freedom when you don’t have to line up behind a politician or a political party.

  12. Mike
    If you read “Shattered” and considered that those clunks would have been HRC’s Cabinet, and you might be a little relieved that DJT is POTUS..
    What I find in reading books from both sides is that both side think they are the smartest person in the room, but if you listened to the Kavanaugh hearings, what you discovered is that both sides come from a big, insular club that has been together since middle school, are isolated from the vast middle class (and lower) of this country, have no clue, get in places like Harvard and Yale on connections, build fancy resumes, there, and mainly feel (on both sides) that they have been born to lead the rest of us.
    I am prone to thinking that anyone that went to an Ivy league school should be disqualified from service. Anyone ffrom the suburbs of Washington DC should be barred (for goodness sake, Britt Hume said he had a hard time reporting on Kavanaugh and Blaisey-Ford, because he knew and played tennis with both or their fathers!!)
    I say a pox on both piles of turds.
    i would go for Trump just from the fact he was not from “the neighborhood.”

  13. George, YOU, and you alone, not only saved us from the crash 10 years ago, which would have wiped out half of our 401k at the time, but because of that and subsequent info, we are now at a financial place where we can retire now, at 65, with NO debt and no dependence on the stock market. We don’t actually plan on retiring, but we can. So, I’m writing you because I feel rich. Good health, good kids & grandkids, a home we own, enough dough in the bank to repair the things we own, help those less fortunate and live as comfortably as our parents lived when they retired. I could ask for more, but I’m not selfish so I’ll leave it there. Thank you kindly, and the 40$ a year we send to you is nothing compared to what you’ve done for us. Merry Christmas and all the best to you & Elaine!

  14. I can tell you layoffs are on the horizon for many companies. I know for a fact that the company I work for has already complied a list of employees that are getting the sharp end of the ax in mid-January. Thankfully I have a couple of friends that are in the know and warned me so I could adjust my Christmas spending. 2019 is going to be a very tough year for many.

  15. There is absolutely no basis in fact for your Bad Russians section. Putin said that the faces change in Washington, but the policies do not. There is no point in Russia interfering in the elections because nothing changes and still has not.

    Do you think the Russians wanted Hillary elected? Had that occurred, we would already be at war with the Russians. Those advising Trump are doing their best to get that war started. The actions by the USA to provoke Russia into war are absolutely frightening when one realizes that the Russians have weapons systems that the USA has no means of defending against. Consider this. One Russian submarine off the coast of the USA carries enough missiles to glass an area the size of Texas. If fired from outside the 200 mile limit, time on target for these missiles is less than 15 minutes. Contrary to MSM propaganda, the USA has zero defense against this.

    The Russia story that nobody will touch is that when Trump went bankrupt the first time, it was money from the Russian Oligarchs that bailed him out. Putin has done very well in clawing back the assets stolen by those oligarchs, and removing them from national influence.

    The other unmentionable part is that Trump is Jewish. His mother is Jewish and he lied about it in his biography. Jewish heritage passes down through the mother. He and his father both use(d) a New York law firm whose clientele has always been exclusively jewish and have used them for years.

    The US government is simply an arm of the international Khazarian mafia. When Trump won, it was just a change of one crime family to another. Everybody is just figuring out where they are going to belly up to the new trough. All the turmoil in the Trump administration is simply the organizational dynamics of such a change. Two things cemented Trump’s position, his continuance of the flow of money to Israel, and an increased military budget to keep the arms industry satisfied. As long as neither of these are affected, nobody cares who is in office. The obscene profits of the medical/pharma industry are just icing on the cake.

    • You G2 (son) is applying for a job where it’s the whole thing: Hair samples, polygraphs and background checks. But it does remind me of WHY Putin would try to sandbag Trump:
      You seem to forget that Hillary (and bill and the foundation) are all pretty clearly understood by those who have taken the time to read. We KNOW how their levers can be pulled – which makes them less a mystery than Trump.
      No, Trump is not someone I wou78ld trust with my life (or wife) but in the international brinksmanship arena he’s not “under control” as much as another candidate. But, if Vlad thought he could “get him in his pocket” through means like this (and BTW the whole Russian Collusion probe) who’s to say that the Russians WEREN’T really working Trump so as to “have someth89ing on him?” We have to trust Robert Mueller and a bunch of (from what I gather mostly democrat) prosecutors come up with.
      But, my point is this: Russia is likely to expand into southern Ukraine – and the department of James Mattis gets us to the core Trump problem that has evolved: He has an HR problem in-house.

      Might I offeer that the American people would support a new law for all candidates for Federal office?

      That they each have to pass a DEEP background check AND Polygraphs, and hair samples and meeting with OPM investigators BEFORE they are allowed on the ballot?

      Might clear up a lot of “Faith in Government” because the people I know in both the FedGov and the dot-Mil are really good people – and those above a certain level who have “run the test gauntlet” are squeaky clean and don’t have skeletons that can cost millions in terms of less-than-optimal elected officialdom…

  16. Well G, i picked a fight with Lucifer. You know The Great Morning star, aka Price of Darknes, Ruler of this World aka Loosh Farmer, the Devil, Satan among other names. Offered me the World, or atleast a spot with them. I turned down his cash, declined told what i was supposed to say..Had to be played a certain way. Im like a worm on a hook.

    As if it really this World is his to give. I mean, all 13 of them, thought The Achons were the Creator . Nope! The be the architects of this loosh farm.. Im sure will all. Br, wbat it is. Aint my first rodeo.

    I didnt want to, but its been a long time since anyone called him out. God, The Father aka The Creator of all things etc. Etc. He told me too or i should say when i had my 9th NDE. Thats who sent me back with the Holy Spirit inside. There were some threats made. All His Idea. Bunch of people made some nasty threats, and so I told them the Truth. I originally willed my soul back to God the Father and its Him who sent me back. Before He did, he showed me when and how i would die. And assured me no harm would come of it. I wish i could have seen the Look on their faces when I told them The Divine Spirit (that cant ve named in this world) did all that stuff through me. Im just a vessel. Im not here for me. Had to keep that a secret but thats how I see and hear the things that come through. me. If they come for me. My faith is in God, and the Divine Spirit within me. So far, aint nobody contended with either of them and won. And iF not. And I die. I already did thY a bunch of times, God will know .

    Anyway, wont be much longer until the Father Comes back, with Jesus. Been a long tjme.

    I didnt want this. It was all God the Fathsrs idea.. Yep. I learned everything about evrything when it came to how all these guys opperate. All sent back to the Father who has a kinda Spiritual Cell Phone. Told them I was not here to work out any karma, i was covered by grace.

    True Story.! Im i will be seeing ya around. We are right on schedule.

  17. Hi, George,

    The problem with “Beto” is that he will be passing himself as Hispanic and will be hiding the fact that he is Irish. Plus, he has been meeting with Obama on launching his new political career. He has no real substance but will be a vessel for the socialist Dems.

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