“You are cleared for higher – at or above 67,000 – expect handoff around Labor Day.”
If markets operated like FAA Air Traffic Controllers, that would be the cockpit communications brief. But not referencing altitude; instead it’s the Peoplenomics Aggregate Index. On that backroom version of “market radar” here’s what was showing before the job numbers popped:
Since you may not read our market and life insights, on the Peoplenomics side of the house, here’s the decoder ring from the bottom up:
- The wide green line is an ultra long-term trend line.
- Fast red is another trend line.
- Thin red is the 200 Day Moving Average (DMA)
- Thin green line is the 85 DMA – which we have just bounced above. And we kept going until busting through the top of a pennant formation.
This was all done before the Federal Job numbers this morning (keep your shirt on – we’ll get there!). But we need to talk about a side of investing that seldom makes it out of quant land and to a useful note to Retail Investors.
Intermarket Coherence Explained
Stand there. I’m going to drop a 20-pound weight on your right foot. Don’t go baby on me and start whining.
(Drops weight – you scream in pain.)
That’s how some investors feel when one of our Aggregate numbers falls out of bed. Yesterday, that would have been the Dow Industrials – down more than 450 points.
Next, I’m going to drop the same weight on your left foot. (NO whiners, please.)
(Drops another 20 pounder on your foot.)
There. Feels about the same as your right foot. Tuesday close to Wednesday, the NASDAQ was down 226 points. But yesterday? Only lost 15 points and this morning futures are calling higher by more than a hundred.
So, here’s the point: When market moves align – all moving similar percentages, up or down – we can call this “coherence.” When one average moves, recovers a bit (or the bleeding just stops) then that’s decoherence.
When you learn to watch it, over enough time (and losses), you can begin to use market coherence as an approach to sighting of “fake out!” moves.
More for our $40/year high rollers tomorrow in the Peoplenomics ChartPack. Just remember, when it comes to making money, you don’t need to follow in the same wagon ruts as anyone else in your thinking.
Off label? Holidays ahead often keep people from thinking ugly outcomes – and look how the lead-in to the Fourth of July moved. Now think Labor Day—with a small hole card for a false flag. Sure, jobs matter, but in our view so does coherence, and a clear move above 67,000 on the Aggregate, on a closing basis, verges on damn-near rational looking.
Better than expected — Global equities are completing their strongest week since May. MSCI’s All-World index was up about 2.3% for the week and Europe’s STOXX 600 about 1.6% despite war risk and higher oil.
Gold is up 5% for the week, as well. Bitcoin is back over $65,000 at press time – so our “global synchronized inflation” model may be kicking in.
Now the Job Numbers
ADP was good. Not great but certainly in the “we can live with that” range. And Thursday’s Challenger job cuts report was more than OK.
The reward for your patience is today’s maraschino on top from Labor – just out.
Both nonfarm payroll employment (-23,000) and the unemployment rate (4.1 percent) changed little in force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry.
Two other numbers matter. The CES Birth-Death model (confessional) says how much was “estimated” into the jobs report based on different sampling methodologies.
“235,000 jobs” where shown in the CES report.
But the one we pay the most attention to is the Household data. Because (like the simpletons we are) we suppose that if there are more people working the “motion beneath the oceans of narrative” will be rising.
After the data, futures showed higher – causing us to wonder if jobs aren’t as important as Hormuz traffic?
So let’s put it in summary form: Labor Day, Coherence, and data isn’t crashing. Other than a Klondike bar and some SPF-50, what the hell else do you expect in late summer?
Besides Hormuz news? Which has me flipping the switch: time to see what the “vital four” for the water cooler set lines out like.
News Compressor: On
What has changed is that the proposed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is turning from a technical transit arrangement into a dispute over Iranian control of the waterway. — Escalating.
Iran’s draft framework reportedly would allow it to bar or fine ships it considers hostile, while a proposed Iranian law would block U.S. and Israeli vessels. Tehran continues to seek fees equivalent to 5%–7% of cargo value, Oman has discussed 3%, and Washington opposes fees. Brent crude responded by rising about 1% to roughly $83.24 a barrel, reversing part of the week’s peace-driven decline. Compared with Thursday’s baseline, the delta is that the proposed corridor now contains explicit exclusion and enforcement powers rather than simply unresolved tolls and inspections.
The second change is that Congo’s Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak has crossed 4,000 confirmed cases and is now the world’s second-largest recorded Ebola epidemic. — Worse than expected.
Government data showed 4,053 confirmed infections and 1,850 deaths across five provinces. Researchers believe transmission began months before the May 15 declaration, while conflict, overwhelmed surveillance and the absence of a strain-specific approved vaccine or treatment have allowed the outbreak to outrun containment. This is a material worsening from the 1,500-death level carried earlier in the week.
The third material shift is President Trump’s renewed attempt to restrict birthright citizenship after the Supreme Court rejected his broader approach. — New.
Two executive actions signed Thursday target narrower categories, including children tied to foreign diplomatic organizations, people classified as “alien enemies,” alleged citizenship fraud and so-called birth tourism. Because the Supreme Court has already upheld the constitutional protection against the administration’s previous effort, the immediate operational consequence is another round of federal litigation rather than an uncomplicated change in citizenship law.
The fourth development is that the food-price warning carried yesterday has become measurable rather than merely forecast. — Confirmed.
The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said world food prices reached their highest level in more than three years in July, with adverse weather plus Gulf and Black Sea conflict supporting crop prices. The shift matters because the inflation pipeline is now showing up in a global price index before the three-to-six-month retail transmission lag identified by FAO earlier this week.
We’ve been telling you for what? Two or three years? Back when G2 and I put up the lean-to greenhouse? You can’t eat paper. You need to own seeds and soil and the knowledge to work them.
Inside Pages
In old “newspapering” parlance the vital four are like the front page. The rest of the paper we thumb through as consumers are called the “inside pages.”
1. Better than expected — China’s export machine remains much stronger than forecast. July exports rose 23.9% year over year, versus a Reuters-polled expectation of 22.2%, as the global AI buildout drove high-tech shipments. Semiconductor exports during the first seven months nearly doubled in value.
2. China’s imports also rose sharply. Imports increased 27.5% year over year, while the July trade surplus narrowed to $112.5 billion from $125.62 billion in June. The U.S. bilateral surplus narrowed to about $28 billion.
3. Escalating — Houthi attacks are adding a second layer of risk to Saudi export routes. The latest Gulf tension helped push Brent back above $83 after oil had fallen roughly 8% earlier in the week on hopes of a diplomatic resolution.
4. Worse than expected — Black Sea shipping costs have surged alongside Gulf disruption. Average daily tanker costs reportedly climbed from a little above $200,000 to more than $300,000, while war-risk insurance premiums doubled.
5. Escalating — A Russian attack on a foreign-flagged wheat ship in Ukraine killed a crew member. Kyiv says it will provide subsidized loans and other financial help to farmers and exporters hit by attacks on Black Sea ports and the maritime corridor. Alternative export routes are not expected to reach even partial required capacity until late August.
6. New — Russia is importing refined fuel from South Korea. Nearly 30,000 metric tons of fuel products were shipped from Ulsan toward Russia’s Far East after Ukrainian attacks damaged Russian energy infrastructure. Russia normally exports diesel, making the trade reversal operationally significant.
7. Worse than expected — A very strong El Niño now carries an 81% probability. The World Food Programme estimates the event could push nearly 49 million additional people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027, with Central America and Southern Africa especially exposed.
8. Worse than expected and related — European heat is becoming a transportation problem, not merely a temperature story. Exceptionally low Rhine River levels are forcing some cargo services to suspend operations and others to reduce loads. The Rhine normally carries roughly 285 million metric tons of freight annually.
9. Ripple-driving — U.S. wildfire resources remain at maximum national preparedness. NIFC reports 86 uncontained large fires, 29,699 personnel assigned, 25 Complex Incident Management Teams, international crews from Australia and New Zealand and four MAFFS C-130 airtankers committed.
10. Worse than expected — U.S. fire acreage is now running far above last year. NIFC reports 5,589,443 acres burned through August 6, compared with about 3.48 million acres at the same point in 2025. Washington and Oregon alone account for 44 currently uncontained large fires. Not quite a double, but working on it.
40.7 percent of the U.S. is in D1-D4 Drought. If you toss in “abnormally dry” D0 now you’re over 60 percent.
11. New — A high-school shooting outside Bangkok killed at least six people. Thai police reported three teachers and three students dead, with conflicting early injury counts ranging from 15 to 22. Authorities said the shooter also killed his grandparents before going to the school. Public carry is illegal in Thailand. Didn’t seem to matter, eh?
12. Escalating — A Senate committee voted to hold Anthony Fauci in contempt of Congress. The committee acted after Fauci invoked the Fifth Amendment repeatedly during questioning about the government’s COVID-19 response; the matter now goes to the Justice Department.
13. Confirmed — More than 50 immediate relatives of active-duty U.S. troops have been detained in the administration’s immigration crackdown. AP identified at least 52 parents or spouses, six deportations, one self-deportation and at least eight relatives still in federal custody. Military advocates say the cases can disrupt deployments and child-care arrangements.
14. Confirmed — Temporary Protected Status has ended for roughly 350,000 Haitians. A federal judge lifted the remaining stay after the Supreme Court sided with the administration, leaving holders unable to work legally under TPS and potentially subject to removal.
Around the Ranch: Antiaging Novel Lesson
The research for my latest novel (which will be released on Peoplenomics ahead of an after-Labor-Day release on Kindle) is titled “D546: The Ancient Children.”
As the title hints, it’s all about anti-aging and how it’s really a two-edged sword. Because on the one hand, increasing your body’s ability to regenerate itself also opens the channels that can let cancer run wild. And so, whatever is done must be handled slowly and with great caution.
The storyline very closely follows the research Elaine and I have been working on. In addition to GlyNAC, earthing, thymic recovery using red light, CPAP compliance, and methylation support for telomere regrowth, we have also been long-term users of NAD+ and NMN.
Which brings me to a little chart which may help you differentiate NMN from NMNH which may be cheaper – depending on your sourcing.
Given the referral of Dr. Fauci’s case to DoJ now, in the novel what comes out is that the government had an undisclosed agenda when it included a “harmonization” adjuvant in a recurring shot sequence for a fictional contagious disease. The “harmonization” didn’t kill people outright.
Instead, what it did was to prevent advanced anti-aging protocols from working. And therein we circle back to the novel’s factbase.
- The Social Security Administration’s Medicare Non-utilization Project (MNUP) is a program integrity initiative. It matches SSA data with Medicare records to identify living beneficiaries aged 90 or older who have not used Medicare Part A or Part B for three years or longer, helping the agency verify they are still alive and prevent erroneous payment.
- In the novel, the “surveillance age is reduced to 80 and the goal is to prevent people from living too long. Because if they do, it blows up the government’s financial planning to fund senior retirements.
The principals in the book are a 97 year old male (who now looks 55) and his 102 year old wife (who can pass for 55) and they live on a fictional hangout in Anderson County, Texas. They have gotten seriously into organic, red light, earthing, supplement, exercise, CPAP, thymus recovery and a whole bunch of other approaches.
Which I’m sure you’ll recognize as having absolutely nothing in common with what goes on around here in real life.
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Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net