Market Statistics Worth Study

Is there an easier way to track the “mood of the market?”  It’s a useful question to ask, particularly with so much trading being online and done by algorithms.

Today, a look at one of the “simple enough to do in your head” ideas that may help you improve your buy/sell timing in markets.

After we “run the numbers” and we have plenty of them to consider.

Also just posted is Podcast episode #20 over here. 33-minutes of coffee with Ure pal…

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26 thoughts on “Market Statistics Worth Study”

  1. “If Trump gets coronavirus OR if China cuts all exports to the U.S. (to “teach us a thing or two”) then we’re toast. ”

    I don’t think the can….

    The virus did show everyone one thing.. just how vulnerable we all are.. we are dependent on the consumption. China is dependent on our consumption for their factories.. we are dependent on their manufacturing capabilities.. when they shut down.. insure it became obvious as to how dependent they are on our throw away society.. we in turn seen just how dangerous it has become since we sent the factories away.. dumbed our youth and became slothful.
    To retool america would take decades..
    Our military our home lives e b.c. en our food supplies..the ripple effect would be catastrophic to the whole planet. Of course it’s just what I see..I could be totally wrong in my assumptions .

     

  2. If trump and the vice president get the virus…

    R remain calm U understand that nasty will be the president N navigate you lifestyle to remain solvent..

  3. only one way I know to decrease tree heartburn……cut at a time of year when there are no bird or squirrel or ? nests in the trees. Qualifies as cooperation with nature.

  4. Holy Snikies GMan – U said it in print today and did not even realize U were the doing Deja Vu All Over Again thing..

    “we didnt have enough “faith in tomorrow”” !!!!!

    Come on man! U see it Now? – bbBBB BITCOIN. Presactly the same issues U had wit mr softy and the Zon.

    Plain as the Proboscis on Ure face – its BITCOIN Baby.

    Don’t forget – No Bitcoin 4 U – besides no one will ever know..VPN/Coinbase/Trezor hard wallet..incognito.

    • It’s quite Obvious…. that you missed this story when you were little..lol lol lol.

      The fables and children’s stories were written to teach children valuable lessons.
      Unfortunately many fail to see the connections that were intended..
      I sure hope that you can see the connections between bitcoin and the emperors new clothes..
      Bitcoin is really nothing at least with the dollar bill you can use it to wipe with when everyone finally realizes that they were sold a set of suits by tailors convincing them that a promise was worth more than something.
      Bitcoin is in reality just a bunch of 1’s and 0’s in an electronic system. Only valued because ugh so we believe its valuable..in a re as l world with no systems available or a total collapse of society as we know it. At that point.. a few bean seeds will hold more value than anything.. listen to George.. hes working his butt off to teach everyone what to look out for..how to predict fluxes and survive a collapse.

      https://youtu.be/z9mQoJU-6I0

    • https://www.ebay.com/itm/10-Gold-1-Silver-Bitcoin-Commemorative-2020-New-Collectors-Gold-Plated-Bitcoin/333570221877?hash=item4daa55a735:g:yQ4AAOSwFE5dg-ZI

      Get them while they are hot BCN.. at least you can hold these.. put them in your pocket and every once in a while ..jungle them rub them and even pull them out and look at them..
      I carry a rock and my grandpa’s Mason medal for his high level in the Masonic lodge.. rose quartz ..
      So seriously you love the idea of bitcoin get a few when it all folds you can show everyone

  5. As near as I can tell it wouldn’t make any difference if the covid outbreak is real or not.
    Qui bono?
    ( Oh, so how many people have been maimed,or killed from vaccinations, over the counter drugs or prescribed drugs? How dangerous are hospitals in regards to anti-biotic resistant bacteria and staff infections?
    Not to mention medical malpractice cases?)
    So how do we test, WHO do you trust? In Who’s interest should a test be administered? How do prove problem,action,solution?
    WHO’s in charge here anyhow?
    So just jump in folks the water’s
    “just fine”, trust us…give me a break.
    And here’s…Johnny!

  6. ALL GOVERNMENT STATS ARE LIES….TOLD TO US BY LIARS…NO TRUTH SPOKEN FOR THE PAST 19 YEARS….911….TO PRESENT…..

    NOW TAKING KIDS FROM THEIR PARENTS IN WASHINGTON STATE…BY THE US MILITARY….BLOODSHED AT YOUR DOOR STEP….COMING SOON TO YOU…THIS WILL BE THE ONLY TRUTH YOU WILL HEAR FROM THE GOVERNMENT…..you must vaccinate or we will take you away……there is ONLY one choice at that time…may you hit what you aim at…till you depart or reload……Semper Fi

  7. Great column today George. I do disagree on one thing. I think that the pandemic will bolster Greentech. As you know I do not believe in climate change…but I do believe in good planet stewardship , as do you. This pause in our rote lives has caused us to re-think our priorities and actually enjoy the clean air and the benefits of visible starry nights and bright blue skies. I have always said that it’s the pollution stupid…not climate change. Climate change is such an idiotic positioning of a real overall pollution of air, water, land etc problem.

    So…in the business world, Twitter announced this week that their employees can work from home forever…and Google and Apple aren’t requiring their employees to report back to an office until 2021. Many other Silicon Valley companies are doing the same. Since we have a housing shortage in California, I predict that many commercial office buildings will be repurposed into housing…or at the very least into a Live, Work, Play lifestyle…For instance, the 1,100 ft high Salesforce tower could be repurposed into a building in which every other floor is an office, that is above a living space and above a play floor area that by removing widows can be open to the outside. Other options include Staggering employee start times to limit crowded offices. The first group goes in at 8:00am tile noon… while the second goes from 1:00-5:00. Both work from home when they are not in the office.

    Those scenarios means less traffic, less pollution, less out of pocket costs, more time at home to plant gardens, tinker at home, and take on projects like installing solar and rain runoff collection wells for irrigation re-use. Most new homes are already installing these items, but the after market orders are starting to pick up now that people can actually spend time IN their homes to notice how it can be improved.

    In the meantime, while they have had time to actually see the difference in air quality…And here in the Bay Area…the air quality is incredibly noticeable and citizens are making choices. The cars that they gravitating towards are electrics…Tesla Model Y pre-orders are out of this world…and so are the pre-orders for their Cyber-Truck. Canada has also pre-ordered a hefty sum of Tesla’s long haul semi truck…add Volkswagens major investment into electrics and new companies like Lucid and Our roads will look a hell of a lot different in a few years.

    There is so much more that we can do to make our lives better, healthier and free from the kind of bad air, water and shoulder to shoulder urban environments that no doubt had a pretty big role in the spread of this virus in the first place.

  8. Got a question Mr. Ure! Is it possible to track weimer republic markets? Sounds like that may be a interesting study and compare them to our current market situation. I may be young and dumb but I try to think every once in a while. Maybe we can find more and better rhythms there?

    Also, paging Warhammer and anyone who was and/or is in the us military, would this be a good time to go officer or just stay a civilian?

      • Nothing to be sorry about Mr. Ure! It was worth asking! At least I know so now it makes sense to stick with the closest thing! Was worth asking at least!

      • There was a stock market during those times, and prices exploded in line with inflation (as expected ;-)). However, most of those records were already annihilated during the following regime that had no use for such activities.

        IMHO it is important to take “inflation” into consideration while interpreting the Elliot Wave phenoma. Beware!

    • Every day is a good day to join the military and serve your country. It’s a different culture, one with purpose and values, a code of conduct and truth and integrity. Whether you enlist, later become a warrant officer, or use ROTC to seek a commission, the lessons and skills you will gain will definitely make you a better person.

      As for the danger, not everyone in the Army or Marine Corps is an infantryman, but they are trained to be one when necessary.

      Sergeant First Class, U.S. Army (Retired)

  9. Looking at the Covid-19 numbers today, results are mixed. My anecdotal observation is that use of masks in public in Texas has fallen to about 10% or less, and graphs I see on the Hopkins site indicate a resumption in mild case acceleration in Texas. This is consistent with true pandemic virus behavior. While the politicos and medical establishment have manipulated the situation in very ugly ways, the virus is still deadly real.

    This morning I went out for breakfast. The restaurant I went to was running up on the legal limit, and was having to make people wait outside as I was leaving. There were more 75+ age diners than I have seen previously. Not a lot of masks, and not much reason to bother in a restaurant. Roll the dice. I am still observing sanitation protocols in the car with hand sanitizer, and upon returning home, whether I wear a mask or not. Soles of shoes get disinfected, and hands get washed as a minimum. A trip to Wally World is grounds for a full decontamination. And I will continue to wear a mask there, regardless.

    Overall, Ure model is showing too much growth in cases through the summer and fall. Come December, I am concerned that the geometric case growth we saw during March and early April may make a reprise appearance. Do what you have to do to stay employed, and concentrate on being ready for another round of earlier furloughs this winter. You may deserve a cruise or a vacation to a resort, but you are safer doing preps with the money.

    • There is no data suggesting periodicity or seasonality. If you can show that, please share. Otherwise, our outlook remains as published

      • Officious studies for seasonality won’t be available for an outbreak which is barely six months old until next summer at the earliest. The graphs (linear and log scales) at the John Hopkins site give some clues as to behavior. Charts are worth a lot of data points. Based on the data which can be seen at the Hopkins site, case growth is currently drawing a straight line on the linear scale charts, as compared to the straight line on the log scale charts which was seen in March and early April. Co-linear vs geometric growth.

        The elevated off season mortality initially distinguished the pandemic H1N1 appearance from other influenza seasons. This can be found on the CDC site. That is analogous to what we are seeing right now with Covid-19. But in comparison, the mortality for the 2009-2010 H1N1 was blunted by the mass production of a relatively effective vaccine, in time for the start of the influenza season. Vaccine production for Covid-19 is currently a feel-good tale.

        Will there be a resumption of exponential growth for Covid-19 this coming fall and winter? We shall see first hand before the academics make their pronouncements. Growth in Texas cases appears to be picking up in the viral off season, which isn’t good at all.

      • Which some of us has been saying from the outbreak’s onset – it’s spread was equally fast in hot countries as cold – remember, it’s always winter or fall SOMEWHERE

  10. HAWAII VIRUS STATS FROM HDOH:

    Total cases: 639 (2 newly reported)*
    Hawai’i County: 76
    Honolulu County: 415
    Kaua’i County: 21
    Maui County: 117†
    Pending: 0
    Residents diagnosed outside of Hawai‘i: 10
    Required Hospitalization: 82‡
    Hawaii deaths: 17
    Released from Isolation: 572§
    Cumulative totals as of 12:00pm, May 16, 2020
    *AS A RESULT OF UPDATED INFORMATION, ONE CASE WAS REMOVED FROM THE COUNTS (FROM HAWAII COUNTY)

    One new case in Honolulu, One new case on Big Island Hawaii county. We are still festering.

  11. Howdy from a fellow Texan George,

    Have not navigated to your site in a number of years, since probably the last big melt down. Had recently checked back in with your old buddy Cliff on a whim and found his take on the current turmoil quite interesting and informative. From there more research. Today I listened to this interview with highly educated and experienced Irish Phd. and professor from Dublin via Catherine Austin Fitts’ Solari Report. It is about an hour and informative. You can check the Dr.’s bona-fides

    https://home.solari.com/debunking-the-narrative-with-prof-dolores-cahill/

    Look forward to seeing more of your insights as we all navigate the turbulence.

    All the best!

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