Another morning in the land of Shills and Shrills opens with Ure all set to take on another over-scheduled day. What happened to the notion of retirement? I swear, if someone would offer a fair price for UrbanSurvival, I’d retire to a low profile twice-weekly Peoplenomics report and spend more time puttering in the shop.
Play-by-Play of a world cracking up – though interesting – is not the highest and best use of any of our talents. Coffee hit to banish the blues should arrive any moment, though, and jack up “serum cynicism” levels…
Double Top Then Flop?
With the small rise in our Peoplenomics Aggregate Index yesterday – a metric assuming equal dollars into the Dow, S&P and the NASDAQ in 2000 – we come today to within spitting distance of a “double top” technical formation.
As you should rightly figure; under Elliott Wave counts, Wave 2 rally after a major high (July 12) can equal (and rarely go a bit over) the old high. Depends how much “slosh” the Fed has dumped in trying to avert collapse.
Slosh? You Bet!
Since it’s a quiet morning, it’s a good time to review how much money the Fed has simply “made up” (borrowing and re-borrowing from itself, effectively printing money at will) since this whole Covid deal kicked-off.
The bottom lines are important here: The one on the right says – in economic terms – that there is 1.317 times MORE MONEY chasing the same goods in America as January 2020.
Consequences follow actions: We can therefore predict with some confidence that the price of a big ticket asset (like a home) ought to be increase 31.7% in the same period of time – to May of this year. 17-months.
Problem is “slosh” from Cash (M1). Give hedge fund people access to more cash and they will overplay their hand. Which is why the market (measured by the Aggregate) was up on the order of 36%. The correlation isn’t bad, though.
The Fed’s Sausage
We believe there is a reason the Fed has hidden (and delays by two months plus) its reporting of monetary data like this ever-so-revealing M2 to Market Prices: They DON’T want the retail customers (small investors like us, fleecee’s) being able to see how the strings behind the curtain are pulled.
It results in all kinds of embarrassing revelations. Our two current favorites are that:
- We are in a zero-growth economy. When you make up enough money, it will seem like there has been growth. This normalcy bias IV drip line keeps people from noticing there are still 5-million fewer people working than there were two years ago.
- And that the Debt/GDP ratio is at suicidal levels.
On the other hand, if the Fed had NOT made up so much money, we’d be in a Second Depression already. So the arrival of Covid has served to:
- Give the government an excuse and a scapegoat for any economic failures (of which there are many). “Oh, that was the virus!” Not the greedy f**ks on Wall Street. Same tactic which people don’t notice when the Tech Wreck cratered in 2000-2003. “It was Terrorism!” But, it had exactly the same scapegoat and excuse for government intervention (War in the ME and the roll-out of domestic surveillance [Patriot Act] at home) which was then conveniently not noticed…
- Modeling such things (as we do a fair bit of), however, is what would happen to America in modern times if the Fed had NOT printed at these levels. Since “the Cartels” are the modern analogs to the Mafia/gangsters/ and Prohibition leading into the previous Depression, the MS-13s, border-leaking-drugs, and two-bit Marxist movements (where we would slot BLM) would have fomented a revolution in the streets by now had Depression II materialized. Seriously: Continuity of Government risk all over the place.
While we understand and appreciate the COG issues (and why the open border is as much about human and drug trafficking and gang “payments” to the American Bankster class) because banks do still launder money. Which is where the whole CrimeCoins versus StateCoins battle line is solidifying.
Still, we have to call bullshit on the government (or private proxies like the Fed) keeping us “little players” from having access to the data that would let us at least see how the Casino is loading dice and tilting their wheels.
I have immense respect for Ben Bernanke. Without his “helicoptering” of money approach, I expect America would be in flames already. It’s out of his lane to deal with what happens when the Cartel puppets take Washington through proxies, but we are intensely curious who’s managing that aspect of disaster. (On the Peoplenomics side, we use a ‘straw man’ fictitious agency [Directorate 153] as our hypothecated “man behind the curtain” pulling the hawsers while Jerome Powell follows the Bernanke script which is more like pulling strings.
“The Virus” Hawser
Here in rural Anderson County Texas, the number of deaths (as of today) from CV-19 is about 133. Most of the victims had co-morbidities. The county has about 58,000 population and of these, 4,784 people have ‘officially’ had the disease.
Some numbers then: Odds of getting sick or asymptomatic? About 8 and a quarter percent. One person in 12, shall we round it?
Of these “sickies” the odds of dying is 2.78%. Less than one person in more than 35.
From the top, the odds are? A bit over 2-10th’s of one percent (.2293%). One person out of each 436 in our county died. Which is amplified by personal co-morbidities including age. So with us 72 and 78, we still cautiously mask, shun contact, because there’s no such thing as fractionally dead.
But we’re not keen on getting “shot” either. Self isolation is not an option for most people. But like so many other times, we seem to have lived “charmed lives” so far. Continuing to do so requires not doing stupid things. We also study the impacts of other health strategies (like having pneumonia shots up to date and taking a baby aspirin) as other small moves that can reduce risk.
We are still heavy on zinc, C, and other supplements. We get lots of rest.
Mainly, We Watch the News
We can see the numbers. My firefighter/EMT son keeps us totally updated on risks, too. He’s been a Covid incident commander for a two county health district effort up north.
He tells me the instant CV test is less accurate than blood draws but a whole lot faster. Not a big fan of PCR tests, either.
Key point: We hadn’t appreciated the role of aspirin (effectively in non-medical terms making platelets in the blood “less sticky” and thus less likely to form micro clots. But then along comes the story this morning “Can platelet size predict severity and mortality in COVID-19? Seems it may. But this is not medical advice.
What’s bothering us now is how dire the headlines have become. How the Bogey Bug is gonna get us all:
- Stanford University reports seven breakthrough cases of COVID-19 among fully vaccinated students | WBAL.
- Bill Would Strip Social Media of Protections for Health Misinformation – WSJ. (Free speech is still alive at UrbanSurvival, but we do censor obvious misinformation and seriously dated assertions.
- Florida reports highest daily COVID-19 cases since January | TheHill. But what’s the median age and how does that figure in?
- And people’s overall behavior is in free-fall. Civility may be one casualty from all this virus hysteria as ‘I Fear Getting Hit From Behind’: Chicago Area Expressway Shootings At An All-Time High – CBS Chicago.
Even stories about people’s confusion are making the rounds: As Americans navigate conflicting COVID-19 mask advice…
Fortunately, click-starved media always has a hot new topic ready to distract.
Stories that Matter
As the bankster class jacks up the futures, we’re a lot more interested in the newest democrat witch hunt spooling up in the asylum: Details on F.B.I. Inquiry Into Kavanaugh Draw Fire From Democrats. Anything to influence the courts in their Marxist Kangaroo direction.
Speaking of Marx: New York Times No. 1: Mark Levin’s American Marxism sells 400,000 in first week | Washington Examiner. There’s hope.
My book more right than ever: Which one? Broken Web (2012) as we read Widespread Outage Disrupts Major Retail, Financial, Travel, Olympic Websites Worldwide – NBC New York.
Fall Gardens and Famine
My consigliere nails it again: “You won’t have to worry about the grains, but if you like truck farm veggies, you’d better do something now…”
Reason for his “fresh tossed cynicism”?
As you can see, no sign of moisture out west and the RGV which is causing severe fire problems.
I wanted to mention this to you now so you can maybe put together a few plans for a fall and winter garden. We got in cabbage and other cold weather seeds this week and we’ll put them in third week of August.
Around the Ranch
Trapped and put down two wild animals this week.
One was a raccoon that had been getting into the garden. The other was a possum. We seem to have a number of them now around our storage building foundation, so Trapper George is on a local wildlife control project.
Don’t know if I mentioned it, but one of the possums ran off (and subsequently killed) Zeus’s feral female friend. Elaine saw the chase begin as the possum ran it up into some dense brush.
I don’t take any joy in putting down possums and ‘coons. But they do a lot of damage to the property and when our mouse and rat patrol gets attacked, that’s the end of it.
And maybe that’s a useful “hint from Universe” about times ahead. “Saving Animals” is a fine thing in a high-rise condo. But out here? Rabies, killers of pets, and ruining buildings is not acceptable. Sometimes – if you overthink animal control – you can confuse yourself six ways to Sunday. For me, two put down rounds and on to the next project. No remorse at all.
Hard times coming. Hardening the heart may be required.
The battle lines of future are firming. Appeasement and the “middle” will be consumed. At which point, you’re going to have to throw in, one way, or the other.
Best thought out in advance. Because when it all hits the fan, there’s only the quick and the dead. You’ll either pick one, or it will be decided for you. 7.7 billion is an unstable population level in our view.
Write when you get rich,