Market Handicapper’s Paradise

by

(A 45 minute column…I write too much for free…)

I’m taking a short half-bow.  Because last week (Friday) I gave you the data RIGHT HERE with my wild-ass guess where the market would be at the end of Wave 5 (or a larger 1) down.

Here’s how close we got:

Our Aggregate Index work was off – as you can see under Wave V Possibilities by only 28.51 points.

Now, we don’t do this all the time.  But we sure don’t get many complaints from our Peoplenomics readers about our quirky view of markets.

There’s one last chart that told how the prediction could work out – the Elliott Wave count from the possible all-time high Labor Day.

I got up early this morning – and having gone “in large” on the bullish side, you can just imagine how I felt with the futures down 236 when I first looked at ’em.

All’s well that ends well.  The futures have turned around and we look to sale higher at the open.

We’ll talk less here about what we see for markets.  But, let’s just look at…

The Big Longwave Picture

Joe Biden has a polling issue.  As a result, I will go out on a limb here and tell you by next week you should be in much better spirits.  For example, the present “news flows” could be pointing to:

  • A moderation of the Administrations (freaking idiotic) “mandates.
  • On the other hand, I don’t have a problem with getting an anti-body test before flying.  That’s actual public safety.
  • The latest Covid numbers should be surprisingly improving by this time next week.  And it will confound the experts.
  • To us, it’s quite visible in how “seasonal tribal groups” tend to work.  Going into summer, you associate with a travel crowd.  Now, we’re transitioning back to the “school crowd.”  If you picture aerosolized clouds over each group, you can see how seasonality (not cold weather, or everyone in Iceland would be dead) is from our periodic “herd changing.”  (*I should write a paper about this for a virology forum, or something…  Summer crowd into school  crowd, into holiday family cloud…the spring break crowd… Rinse and repeat, be mystified by the regularity of the 9-month disease cycle…by not realizing we’re seasonal apes…all of us.)

A Data Point:

From BEA:

“Personal income increased $35.5 billion, or 0.2 percent at a monthly rate, while consumer spending increased $130.5 billion, or 0.8 percent, in August. The increase in personal income primarily reflected increases in compensation as well as government social benefits, which reflect advance Child Tax Credit payments authorized by the American Rescue Plan.”

This actually sounds like it might be “real” – since it squares with what some readers are telling us.

So, What Else?

Yeah – I’m sick of Covid stories, sick of watching my trading platform, sick of Government over-reach.  Most all the headlines make me sick.  But, perpetually trying to drop a few pounds, it is an effective appetite suppressor!  Barf bag at the ready?

Pseudo-drama Princess?  Pelosi pulls $1.2T infrastructure bill from promised House vote (nypost.com).  You see, Pelosi’s problem is she doesn’t realize the lefties are like black-mailers.  If she pays them off, she’s screwed.  But, at least extreme moderates like (moi) won’t have to wash our mouths out after saying “democrat.”  With their party imploding from the left in, how about a rebrand to Dramacrat?

Is the Longwave Low Passing?  We’ll skip the details and pass them on to subscribers, but when I saw the story German inflation hits 29-year high as energy costs spike across Europe – CNN, it struck me with rates about to move up in the U.S., we could be passing the long wave rate low.  Seems it would be a good time to refi or buy…

We been calling for this a while now, but media’s beginning to copy the “will o the peeps”  Fauci pressed if he should ‘step aside’ as an ‘impediment to public health’: ‘People won’t listen to you’ | Fox News.  Next week, when we expect good virus news to go center, look for Ouchi to take the bows.,  Gain of Function is still a war crime, dude.

Left is STILL monetizing Trump.  Sure, we’ve been telling you since November that Trump cannot be allowed to just fade-out-to-Crawford-like peace and quiet.  So we are less than surprised to see Politico now blame Trump’s family for Covid.  AYFKM?  How Jared and Ivanka Hijacked the White House’s Covid Response.

Dramacrats versus…  Yet again:  Throw the Constitution under the bus for socialism backed with A.I…. Enlightened Algos: Democrats Demand Increased Corporate Controls To Protect Citizens From Their Own Dangerous Curiosities.  Computers busting Constitutional rights were programmed by humans who should be held accountable.

Middle East is Constant Simmer.  Did you see where Taliban Condemns US Drone Flights Over Afghan Airspace, Warns Of “Consequences”?   Know why the condemning?  Senior al Qaeda leader killed in drone strike in Syria, US defense officials say.  Force?  Equal and opposite reaction?

Of Course Taiwan could blow any time, too:  China sends 25 fighter planes toward Taiwan on National Day.

And, starting today, Mail service may be slower. Mail delivery slowdown: USPS to slow delivery starting October 1 – CBS News.

Not to Bitch and Moan

…but:  Seems to us that the Post Office is yet-another symptom of something America is really unable to address:  We are passing “Peak Everything.”

I’ve been reading business books about this for years.  “End of the Line..” for example was one of them.  And books that put it into longer-term perspective like “The 500-Year Delta.”

If we want to have a country left in 50-years, it’s time to wake up the kids and have a talk with them.

We need to tell them there is a new world coming, where the value placed on human labor has entered a long-term decline.  And as humans become more narrowed in their skills while becoming more sloth in their hustle, it will be a major issue within less than 5 years, I figure.

Because there is a lot of economic Truth that will hit the fan in this window.  We are to our knees on manufacturing, China is ascendant and cherry-picking purchase of American properties.  Paid for with all the money they have made  trading with the sucker-fish – US.

Much more to ponder on this point, since I’ve been tinkering a bit with the temporal nomography ideas laid out Wednesday.

Peoplenomics with lots of 1929 comparison charts.  And drop by with market’s closed for a peak at the workbench in ShopTalkSunday…

Odd future awaits…but alas, breakfast is first…

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

42 thoughts on “Market Handicapper’s Paradise”

  2. ‘On the other hand, I don’t have a problem with getting an anti-body test before flying. That’s actual public safety.’

    Hate to inform you sir, but there is no ‘anti-body’ test for so called covid. The PCR is still the base ‘test’ for the ‘virus.’ But, because you are a well read and bright guy, you know that PCR is not really a test (it’s a lab procedure to magnify), does not diagnose anything, and has nothing at all to do with anti-bodies.

    So yes, I object to taking any phony ‘test’, especially one that asks me to put swabs up my nose (or if you are in China, up the other orifice).

      • I can confirm this antigen test thing. It is only way to fly internationally to and from US.
        Simple, quick, painless – results back in 5 mins..nother business model/testing svc.

        * A photoshoped Vaxx card – or neg test result/paper.

        Now some countries/pols are taking moar bribes and trying to institute proof of Vaxx staus to enter public places.. this just got shot down in Belize, so now propaganda-regs just for entering govt blgs.

        R U ready 2 Rock ? we be rolling….https://youtu.be/FsdfDKT2HXk

      • The Chinese bio-attack. The Chinese are still manufacturing food for the $ stores. Yum.

        O/T – I never received any of the Chinese seeds. Did any of you and did you plant them?

      • “The Chinese are still manufacturing food for the $ stores”

        And your local grocery and everything else..
        I for one believes that china is being framed..
        Almost everything I own says made in china.. from my perspective..IF… china intentionally wanted to infect America and the world.. they could have in a million different places so the blame wouldn’t be focused on them..baby formula, cpap masks or filters ,drink containers.. or my favorite that would represent what WE..did. infect the blankets..put it in any of our medicines or hay why not just add live virus to injectable medicines and vaccines..
        Instead it shows up a month after we had bio warfare drills over there by that market.. and the lead dr. Researching the virus gets on line to warn everyone that it was loose.. even though that very action jeopardizes her life.
        No I think some one or some group went through a great deal of trouble to shift the blame to them.. now I would believe it could have walked out on a shoe or sleeve. But for myself.. I can’t believe that they set it loose on purpose.
        We deal with it.. and I don’t have any troubles buying made in china goods ..

      • Pray tell me – what antibody would we be testing for with a virus that has not been isolated – yes, there are lots of virus structures out there, but are not we talking about Covid-19? And you believe the government is trying to force people to take a vaccine for their own Health and safety?? Really? Oh I know, the cool aide is very strong, but there is a huge picture here that you are not seeing – and what about all the millions of ‘positive’ tests taken from the ‘old’ test – the PCR? Are they now invalid so we admit that we didn’t have to mask and lock people up. Siding with the government on this one will cause you considerable embarrassment when it is no longer possible for the government to contain the con!

        See the con behind 911 – same group of people.

      • I’m of the opinion that once the PCR tests are gone, so too is the pandemic. Especially now that Merck and Pfizer are essentially introducing an Ivermectin analog in pill form as a therapeutic. Take it for five days and you’re good. Of course, it costs many times what you would have had to pay for Ivermectin, but if it effectively ends this crap, I’m all for it. What is going to be interesting is how this whole pseudo-pandemic is written up for the history books. I read this morning that one has a better chance of being hit by a meteor than dying of Covid. I don’t know that it is true but it sounds about right. A 99.7 % chance of survival doesn’t really equate to a scary pandemic. Given that the Dims are in power, the history of this will likely remain mostly obfuscated and absurdly free of truth. But there will be criticisms and truth from the perimeter.

      • The game afoot now is ‘control of the population’, which is gained by either the imposition of a SARS-CoV-2 ‘vaccine passport’ or a ‘negative antigen test result’. The end result is an another incremental loss of personal freedom in exchange for an illusory gain in health security. These incremental losses of personal freedom have been piling up for a while now, at least since the execution of the 9/11 false flag and the enactment of the Patriot Act (the very name itself is a prime example of Orwellian ‘double think’).

        Submitting to this ‘antigen test’ is just another subterfuge in the crime of Medical Tyranny the elites (globalists) are trying to foist on all of humanity (the useless eaters, the deplorables, or any other demeaning label you may choose).

        This Medical Tyranny bullshit is going to continue until complete subversion of humanity’s personal freedoms is achieved. I know because I’m part of the pharmaceutical industry. The literature is full of plans to develop mRNA vaccines for every viral disease you can imagine (and even those you can genetically engineer, just like the ‘American hero Dr. Fauci’ did with SARS-CoV-2, with a little help from his friends at the Wuhan Institute and the Chinese Communist Party).

        In the mean time, Pharma companies like Abbott can reap the profits from the BinaxNOW home antigen test kit. Just think how the sales and profits will grow as the requirements for a ‘negative antigen test result’ morph from airline flights to using any public transportation, to entering a grocery store or getting medical treatment. Why the possibility are endless, aren’t they? Seems like a perfect vehicle to achieve absolute control, aka ‘slavery’, does it not?

      • Stephen: “…what antibody would we be testing for with a virus that has not been isolated?”

        It boggles my thinking, investigative mind that people like you STILL believe the Covid virus has not been isolated!! Just because you swallowed that Kool-aid that the CDC allegedly replied that ‘no samples are available’ to someone who was unlikely to be qualified to receive that information anyway. Many, many qualified and independent virologists in multiple countries have isolated and analyzed the virus that causes Covid19. Yet you cling to your mistaken beliefs.

  3. The CDC has given a death rate due to covid of 1 in 500 – you shouldn’t have to take any kind of test for whatever reason to do anything – once you go down that slippery slope …………

  4. Clawsy – If you think the “rate” of death is not very high, go talk to a florist. Buy some flowers for your sweetie while you chat about the deaths with people in the death business, get back to me.

    George – I see news of the miracle Merc drug today. What are the likely effects? I would think this would smash the vaccine push to bits. Maybe this is just confirmation bias, but in all the crisis over the last couple decades, one thing stands out. When the wave is about to break, the “news” sounds desperate. I think the last two weeks push for vaccines sounds desperate. If I had to guess, I’d just get out my Rules for Radicals decision chart.

    Any tactic that drags on too long becomes a drag. They know the vaxx push is tipping people in a direction they don’t want.

    Combine that with the now “over” delta wave, and yes going into next week we’ll have some happy talk.

    Also, notice the news dropped on a Friday about the Merc drug. Hello, that is an obvious media move to get it all in the Sunday shows. These tactics are worn and threadbare, so obvious after a couple decades of this charade.

  5. give me cold hard numbers and cold hard facts . if it walks like a duck looks like a duck quacks like a duck it is a duck .

    • Comrades,

      Duck! And then a quack rang out opening a door.

      Oh the irony of anti-vaxxer Ty Bollinger backing speaking engagements of a vaccinated Eric Trump to extol the accomplishments of the 45th president.

      Spin some Bandstand Boogie, I haven’t heard so much lip syncing since Dick Clark ruled the waves.

  6. There’s a difference between dying (OF) Covid 19 and dying (With) Covid 19. But unfortunately that distinction was swept under the rug when the CDC allowed “presumed covid deaths” were called by a simple test, not an autopsy to ascertain (actual cause of death) and rushed cremations and burials.

    I’ve yet to see funeral directors in hazmat suites.

    Death rates for all other causes dropped, while Covid deaths rose but, the death rate didn’t fluctuate much.

    Hospice patients who are on their deathbed, body shutting down and actively dying because of some terminal illness, who contracts Covid 5 minutes before passing …. Is termed a “Covid Death” just because they tested positive.

    Sometime a duck, isn’t really a duck regardless of what similarities you see. Shadows often play tricks with our perceptions.

    Florists only know what their told.

    • Florist: “hello”
      Customer: “I need some flowers, my friend just died of COVID”
      Florist: “not bloody likely, he probably died with COVID”

      You are a monster sir.

      • “chat about the deaths with people in the death business, get back to me.”

        I wouldn’t say, Florists are in the death business. They sell flowers for various occasions, such as Birthdays, Anniversaries, Weddings, Romantic Relationships, Get Well Wishes and so on. Not just Funerals.

        Those in the “Death Business” are more corporate, big pharma types of operations.

        Those who really know what’s going on, as I presented it, are those who have been dealing with the illness and dealing with the deaths and see what’s going on and the final writings … which don’t jive with actuality.

        Honesty doesn’t make a person a monster … showing honesty simply means one is being honest. The real monsters are lying to you.

      • Suck it up, butta cup. “prison” Life is tough, Ure meat suit has been preprogrammed to expire early…< 120yrs – GUARANTEED
        – whose the real monsters..?

        Never missed taking a Blue pill once did U ?

        1/55000 =.000018% risk of death flying passenger airline
        1/500= .002% covert19
        1/80 = .0125% risk of death US car accidents

        – Plato leaked the truth, as an allegory – just like today – you can still tell the truth, only must be in fictional form.

  7. Ok guys, did you guys get the ‘pill’ yet? The NEW and IMPROVED covid vaccine/treatment.

    Come on people, don’t let the governments of the world con you AGAIN! This is getting ridiculous – the vaccine narrative is starting to fail, so better to default to the ‘pill.’ Gee, the market went up today. Coincidence?

    • Because no pharmaceutical company has ever developed an anti viral medication.

      You anti vaxxers need to get your story straight. Either you don’t need the “vaccine” because there are drugs you can take if you catch COVID, or not. But quit moving the goal posts, it sounds childish.

      This is a drug they will give people who catch COVID. It’s not intended for people already deeply ill. It’s exactly what people have been saying about ivermectin this entire time, but hey, who needs consistency when you can shake your fist at the sky? I for one agree with you, shaking the fist at imaginary problems is a lot of fun, but I draw the line at looking like an inconsistent fool myself. But that’s just me.

    • I pointed out on 9/28 you were off a little because ES still needed one more 4th and 5th down but no complaints here and glad you got some of it both ways. I had to stay up 24/5 to play this game because they’ve topped and bottomed it overnight.

      Thinking we top around Tuesday or Wed and head South again. We could be doing a second of the third here, so look out below if that’s correct. Somewhere around 4420 SPX.

  8. QUOTE from Catturd ™

    Breaking …
    Joe Biden’s inflation is so bad – 50 cent has changed his name to 6 dollars and 30 cent.

  9. You should move the leave a comment to the top :)

    Biden will be tripling/quadrupling down on all things covid just like you are seeing in other nations. Joe is a 1 term pony, jigs up on it all being fake especially give the ‘stage’ he was on for this alleged booster. You have to break some eggs to usher in the great reset…those eggs are those who have the balls to think for themselves and refuse to go along with the herd. We will be homeless and unemployable probably interned. This is the global technocratic electronic police state Alex Jones and many others were mocked for warning about. Lucky us….we get to see it be born!

    This fall the crash of crashes will remove any savings in markets followed by a complete flush of dollars/bonds leaving everyone broke and no work. Basic income, food, energy, etc. will be tied to your vaxxx passports making sure you have your 15th booster while everyone is dying around you from their latest treatment. Crazy is about to start…

  10. yep she went up . well done george . its nice to be wrongand admit it and shrug your shoulders

  11. History rhyming with the pandemic and prohibition in 1920. Was at a museum on the weekend and had a big display about prohibition. All the arguments for prohibition sound like why you need the vax: “public safety” “no gatherings or pubs” “shut down all social events”. History rhyming big time. It took the stock market crash and the Great Depression to finally kill prohibition.

  12. Out with the old, in with the new. Remove the vehicle then reinvent the wheel. Rhyme has no reason, when ethics are off the table … When good becomes bad and bad becomes good, because there’s nothing left to change but our perceptions.

    Dance to the music you hear, so pick your pill. Time will tell. The best you can do is pray it turns out well.

    Peace

  14. And basically not being a trader it gives you a fabulous opportunity to get more shorts on . This pathetic trickery is an insult . Closed gold shorts 2 nights ago . George will verify . Have untold upside now on the highest velocity stock in the world. Gold miner I identified 5 years ago . So you other guys keep playing tricks and you must remember which lie you told to cover other . So USD long TLT long ,all markets/stocks short . Greatest gold stock in world long but with no signal . Sick of Mickey Mouse Elliot wave games

  15. Why long the greatest gold stock in the world? No reset or bullsheet inflation stories just preserve sanity in this evil f&$ed up world and fake bullsheet market . Wake up dark side you are going to the horn guy

  16. let me at the fing thing monday !!! going up eh? yeah right . do you read any fing numbers or understand ? ask bobby prechter like they did in march 6 2009 to tell you happy days .. this is so ready yep let me at the fing thing . and my sewer oztralia is reopening the penal colony (never went in 250 years ) to spreading diseased dieing vegetables . hooray !!!

  17. Hawaii state emergency mandates expire Oct. 4, so today the Governor came on afternoon TV with a press conference to basically extend the existing emergency mandates for a few more months. Afterwards, one astute real journalist asked this question: “How many of the recent covid deaths were ‘fully vaccinated’ people?”

    The State Health Dept. Director, Dr. Libby Char, fumbled her way through the non-answer, saying “We can’t tell you that… we don’t have an answer… that data is hard to get…. but we are working on it. We will let you know…”

    Pure, aromatic, bull$hit ! That data is in the health record of every deceased patient… if anyone wants to get that information. What Dr. Char told me… without words… is that the Health Dept doesn’t collect that data because they DON’T WANT TO KNOW how non-effective the bogus alleged ‘vaccine’ really is. The data is in the health records of every patient. Hell, when I was hospitalized early this year the nurses were asking me about my miraculous survival of a brain infection some thirty years ago! The data is there, for those who look. Fact is… fully ‘vaccinated’ people are dying of Covid. They just don’t want to tell us how many, because that destroys the “Get Vaccinated” propaganda.

  20. This is the vaxx pill which was mentioned yesterday.

    I arranged for this to be posted verbatim on farcebook:
    ______

    Covid antiviral pill can halve risk of hospitalisation

    An experimental drug for severe Covid cuts the risk of hospitalisation or death by about half, interim clinical trial results suggest. The tablet – molnupiravir – was given twice a day to patients recently diagnosed with the disease.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58764440
    ______

    This is an experiment. It will be posted tomorrow. I will then note whether the BBC gets fact-checked or sent to jail. 7-)

  21. This may be off topic but I tried to post the following on a Daily Wire YouTube about a nurse losing her job in Rhode Island, because she doesn’t want the vaccine and she has the antibodies. YouTube removed it. The truth why people are suspicious of these vaccines is too revealing to these fascists big tech companies taking over our government and the world.

    “If this was 1950s America and the factories and growing economy needed us and our ingenuity, I’d consider this vaccine (mRNA therapy) to be just like the polio one I remember as a child taking on a sugar cube, but this supposed pandemic came at a time when ai and robots are becoming the new workforce, our nations Treasury is being bankrupted with endless wars and money printing, at a time when the boomers are going into retirement and drawing soc sec and Medicare, at a time when the government is awarding $billions and $billions in contracts to big tech to learn how to track us better. There’s no need for our labor now, in the way it was appreciated back after WW2. Plus these are not vaccines. They’re untested in the long term mRNA gene therapies that work off a spike protein introduction and various nano technologies. Plus our political parties, MSM, hospitals and doctors all take succor from big pharma to the the tune of $billions each year. That’s called fascism. I’m just not trusting this effort to be the altruistic intentions it’s being posed as. There’s too many people on the social programs now with more programs coming like UBI. How are these programs going to be paid for with fewer people working? . It’s unsustainable.”

  22. “Infectious
    October 1, 2021 at 13:05

    I read this morning that one has a better chance of being hit by a meteor than dying of Covid. I don’t know that it is true but it sounds about right. A 99.7 % chance of survival doesn’t really equate to a scary pandemic.”
    ____________________________________________________________________________________
    This doesn’t sound like the writer is reading anything remotely related to medical knowledge. I hope he does not behave like he actually believes this to be factual.
    I have lost people to this “virus”. It isn’t about meteors or politics or passes or D’s and R’s arguing in the ivory tower. It is about using whatever improves your odds of NOT being the one to assume room temperature. This especially includes personal behaviors.
    The vaccines and their mRNA experiment aren’t working out for older folks- at all. If you take a flippant statement on the odds of meteor strikes as equally good advice to consider, bear in mind what a meteor strike does to anything in it’s vicinity. That is the sort of meteor strike that killed so many old people in the assisted living centers.
    Now it looks like the vaccines have actually turned against us. It remains to be seen which group needs to be protected from which. It likely won’t matter as both parties end up with the virus after they share proximity.
    Stay away from ANY crowds.
    If you must dine out, avoid eating indoors. All restaurants currently existing have the cheapest, most basic air conditioning systems that heat or cool but lack ventilation. But they satisfy old building codes in order to do business. Breathing easy???
    There are other things than Covid that masks ARE effective in adding resistance to. No one likes them but they also don’t like Covid.
    The school systems are no better nor are any buildings designed for large crowds of people. Concerts, Black Friday sales events, Gun Shows, Sports stadiums etc. they are for now, all just a large form of Petri Dishes. When you go home, what are you taking with you???
    This will take some sacrifices on everyone’s part. It isn’t about fear of the virus, it is already here. It is about thinking before acting. Forget ‘normal’ it has already left the station.
    There are new things coming to help rid us of this plague. They are no more tested than the mRNA crap but offer MUCH better results allegedly without the “very rare” death event. No more mandates for poison.

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