Mapping the Second Depression Ahead

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Ever since December 2021, when we began advising it was time to learn gardening, conditions have been building toward Depression before 2023.  Even our moderate case for economic calamity, though, has gained strength as the modern Fed – while avoiding the same mistake of the 1929 Fed – has also mis-stepped and made up new errors.

We continue to admire the work of Ben Bernanke, who we’re pretty sure, would have disengaged his “helicopters of cash” at a more reasonable rate.

Still, during a Covid outbreak, serious witch hunts among the DC elites (plus Epstein’s ‘book’ and the Durham grand jury), what were you expecting, really? America’s collapse wasn’t going to be pretty.

This morning, a discussion of the “way ahead” and what could be brewing in 2023./  Plus, not to worry my cardiologist here, a few words about how to use SALT – Software-Assisted-Learning Tools.

In our ChartPack, the case for a large Elliott wave 3 down to place us on the backside of a modest 3(ii) rally.  Which means we’re likely to the 3-and-done part shortly.  Just frickin great.

But, it’s not likely we haven’t been planning for what’s coming.  And why we have invested in the objects of money, rather than the (deteriorating) paper itself.

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57 thoughts on “Mapping the Second Depression Ahead”

  1. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18740693/russia-threatens-to-hit-us-with-satan-missiles-ukraine/

    I think it could probably take less.. the USA has always been more for profit and control.. so they put all their eggs in one basket.. instead of working to strengthen and secure.. the group and combine to keep control and make money.. ( well numbers on a sheet of paper or computer screen..)
    two or three high altitude EMP’s from the studies that have been done.. would put to much stress on the system.. look what a little ice storm did in texas a couple of years ago. it almost took down the whole center of the country.. three of them would cause a tiered collapse.. five would get you checkmate..

    https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-113hhrg89763/html/CHRG-113hhrg89763.htm

    https://www.nasa.gov/centers/langley/news/releases/2010/10-012.html

    https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Research-Development-Needs-For-Improving-Resilience-to-Electromagnetic-Pulses-June-2020.pdf

    https://spaceanddefense.io/a-planetary-rotational-nuclear-emp-campaign-to-destroy-the-earths-satellite-layer/

    https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA111419.pdf

    https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nasa_economic_impact_study.pdf

    I could go on.. the really sad part is besides the authors .. there are very few people that signed off on reading it that actually read it.. we already know that no on in congress except for maybe Rand Paul read the dam things.. so they can claim justifiable deniability on not knowing.. and getting away with heating oil and strategic fuel.. filling our country up with illegals from countries that swore revenge.. we are just setting ourselves up..
    Are they doing that for a few extra bucks..or some darker motive or are they all just plain stupid.. we won’t ever know for sure..

  2. this is for

    “@Keep Your Parents With You or At Their Home IF Possible
    May 31, 2022 at 12:14 “who wrote..
    “Hi, LOOB, I have heard, appreciated, and been saddened by your story.
    But, it is not everyone’s story.
    We took care of both of our parents at home until they passed.
    We put a good care team in place, starting with family, the VA, Medicare, and helpers as we could afford them.”

    YUP.. the VA and govt. health facilities are wonderful.. they recently are doing away with a lot of that and reducing the money that is being spent to keep the govt. healthcare systems in place. instead they are now using local hospital systems and there is just so much that they will pay or authorize.. DJT was working on making it more flexible but now that flexibility is being changed.. you go to a local hospital if it is not authorized then the patient has to pay.. and most of the people are not eligible for the care.. I for one use the VA hospital system and have had to change .. my co pay is fifty dollars a doctors visit.. fifteen dollars for generics and up to I believe two hundred for name brand pharmaceuticals that are on their list of medications.. with them down sizing.. I have had to go to an out and get a different doctor beyond the VA healthcare system. Unfortunately my neighbor does not have access to govt. Healthcare at the VA or the golden goose govt. healthcare plan .. and the vast majority of wage earners are not financially able to stay home with their children much less with an elderly parent.. we let people live in our spare bedroom that need a place to live , and have done the same thing with our parents.. but would not be able to under normal working conditions.. ..

      • seriously now.. does the moron need any more coaching.. LOL LOL
        My great great great grandmother could do a better job than both of them are doing.. and she’s been dead for over a hundred years LOL LOL

    • Is one of his secret OICs the one which legalized recreational possession and use of fentanyl?

  5. “In the Great Depression, virtually all families were forced to live on the brink of financial disaster.”

    Unfortunately.. it is like that NOW… the average family.. is what..
    two paychecks away from being homeless.. and 59% are one paycheck away..
    https://invisiblepeople.tv/59-of-americans-are-just-one-paycheck-away-from-homelessness/

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2019/01/11/live-paycheck-to-paycheck-government-shutdown/?sh=4c29b80a4f10

    just look at the canary in the coalmine of San Francisco..

    https://www.pacificresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/HomelessBrief_final_web.pdf

    kids working and making a quarter million a year and live in car’s and cardboard boxes.. food stamp eligibility is just shy a quarter million dollars.. if that isn’t the canary dying from lack of oxygen.. I don’t know what is..
    now with morons running the country.. it is all flipping upside down.. morals and ethics have been tossed to the winds of time.. sad but it is what it is..

  6. the Sussman trail was just one battle in this larger chess game. The Sussman side only won freedom from the lone charge of lying to the FBI, while they lost a Robby mOOK/ROOK and exposed the crooked FBI lawyer, I dont remember vs taking the 5th, Baker. [top FBI lawyers remember]
    R.mOOK, Killary’s campaign manager, said the Hilldog gave her approval to the russia russia russia lie, under oath on the witness stand. Bill Barr even said “sedition”,, at what point will a oath taking military start tribunals? [EVIDENCE needed] The US Constitution is drowning, who is the life guard against all enemies foreign and domestic! I do not know but I look to Newton
    His third law states that for every action (force) in nature there is an equal and opposite reaction.
    Evil has ruled for too long, it is time for an eQualization, yin/yang, it all is a cycle, the sun comes up and the sun goes down, everything goes round and round. Be Happy ;) even Andy in the movie Shawshank found mental happiness while in the ‘hole’, they could not take his mind. you can be happy if you have mind to,,,
    Que, Roger Miller https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRnY3fVMjhw

  7. In coping with the info-overload of modern life, I learned a technique back in my snot-nosed Novice radio electro R&D lab geeky solder-jockey Kidd days.

    Keep a Lab Notebook.

    Crucial for companies doing R&D for proving the intellectual process leading up to defending the company’s key patents. Every high, medium, and low-level employee keeps a spiral bound Lab Notebook wherein one notes all books, publications, phone calls, catalogs, activities and Brilliant Insights down ON PAPER every single day –AND, you NEVER tear out and discard a page. Never.

    It’s amazing how one can go back after a LOT of time and “remember” little bits of info that you had NO idea would ever be needed later — but suddenly are super-important.

    “Who repaired that ‘scope two years ago?”
    “Who was that guy that had that oddball tool that would be Really Handy right now?”
    “Who told me “X” in a TellCall with that agency?”
    “When did I first think that newly-designed Franjotic Selectors should rotate clockwise to minimize Corioliss Effect on the Flapdoodle Roofing Filter?”
    “What was Joan’s phone number at the High-Wattage resistor plant?”

    ..and so forth.

    Every day, start a new page and date it.
    ‘Date it” — VERY important to company patent attorneys… Each day, turn to a new page.

    Now, I’d add URLs to it — but I always noted names and phones, and such other Floobydust (National Semiconductor Corp fans are now smiling to see somebody still remembers what that word means,,,) as applied.

    Many, many times, I’ve said later, “Thank GOD I noted that little factoid in my Lab Book!”

    (I don’t actually have a Lab, but the point and the procedure still apply.)

    • I once (twice, actually) worked for a broadcast General Manager who kept meticulous daily notes like that. Together we built our first TV station from the ground up. Some years later I jumped at the chance to work with him again as we moved both the transmitter site and new studios for another TV station. Guess which ‘little black book’ came out of his files and gave us the road map for doing it all a second time?

      Lesson learned, I kept my own notebook when I was contracted to do a digital TV buildout for a little analog station with a somewhat flakey individual owner. In the end he ran out of money, had the loan called, and lost his multi-million home on Maui that was collateral for the loan. He stiffed me for over $20 grand and then threatened to sue me. I have the broken contract and written defense evidence against his false accusations. Seven years storage on that evidence is up next year.

    • This practice has historical roots in what is known as a commonplace book. I follow the practice and it comes in very handy many a time.

  8. We’ll all get good government jobs once the Depression starts. There will be new Tennessee Valley Authority (1933) programs.

    FHA was created in 1934. We’ll need a new program to mod-urbanize the cities. Jobs! Look for a programs opposite of 1991’s “Rural Development”.

    “USDA launched the Single Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program in 1991 to help expand access to mortgage financing in rural areas. USDA provides loan guarantees to lenders if a borrower defaults.”

      • You should be fine out in the country for awhile.

        Once the blackouts start less populated areas may be orphaned from the grid. That’s where the homeless will flock.

    • Federally guaranteed loan programs are a terrible idea unless there’s a worthy plan behind them. Remember the student loan program that refuses to die and guarantees that colleges can charge whatever they want and teach total crap, and still get paid! The students are young, uninformed, advertised to, may never get a degree, but are still pressured to take these stupid loans.

    • My Dad got one of those “good government jobs.” His pay was $13/week, first as a logger, to build a reservoir for NYC, then later as a gandy dancer, to re-lay 700 miles of track.

      The gummint didn’t have chainsaws or air-driven spike-hammers in the 1930s. The labor was “can see” to “can’t see” all manual, and if you were late or didn’t finish your shift, you didn’t get paid that day.

  9. Tides of good fortune may be rolling in for property owners on the beachfront. CGTN advises that China began operation this week of the world’s largest combined solar-tidal photovoltaic power generating station in Zhejiang Province.

    The Chinese ambassador to the USA has visited Texas and been pictured receiving a cowboy hat. The presentation was made by the same teacher who met president Deng 43 years ago. The ambassador made a speech stating that understanding of China-US relations can be improved when students learn Chinese. He spoke at a charter school, one of a couple dozen in Texas founded by a US Marine, that offers instruction in English, Spanish and Chinese. Students are moulded to become “servant leaders” in the international community.

    Let us segue to the White House public schedule for Mr. Biden. This afternoon at what would be English teatime hour, the president will participate in a Zoom meeting with administration officials and infant formula manufacturers regarding the continued (!?) Operation Fly Formula.

    It really is quite extraordinary. Has the president nothing more important to do than pamper figures of industry failure? Certainly the head of finer English houses may on occasion encounter a problem downstairs in the kitchen. However they have a skilled individual to resolve the matter. This person is called a butler.

  10. “Leaving us cleaning flash goggles and reading Russia threatens to wipe out the entire US with just four Satan II missiles in chilling warning over Ukraine.”

    Two on the Left coast, two on the other Left coast — The vast middle of CONUS would be untouched and unaffected…

    • If I wanted to take down the evil empire without ruining the whole continent then that is what I would do, too.

      Neither coast represents the real heart of the U.S. even though they think that they do.

      • God that is the truth… I know in the wastelands of the USA.. people think that SATAN is the west and east coast.. can’t walk down a city street without fear..
        I will never go back to NYC… I wanted to see a broadway show.. it was a dream.. my room mate lived there.. no worries.. we get there and get separated.. I had to walk sixteen blocks at night in dress whites.. I know the only reason I am still alive is everyone was leary about a cracker in white walking the neighborhood,, good lord knows I heard enough comments look at the oreo cookie gang following behind me kept getting closer banging iron pipes etc on the brick walls.. I walked calmly having had a friend that grew up in the ghetto.. said show no fear and walk calmly.. if you run your dead…. I lucked out when they got about twenty feet behind me slowly closing in.. and I turned the corner.. there was several hundred military.. LOL the gang vanished.. I swore I would never go to that city again..

      • LOOB, I learned to survive in the city only because I needed to. When I crossed the city line, I considered myself dead, generally as I was splitting lanes on the Deagan and FDR on a motorcycle in stopped traffic. When I walked the streets of Brooklyn at night, I had every intention of taking anyone that crossed me straight to hell. There was no way anyone would take any of my stuff without a fight, even if I ended up dead. For some reason, I was mostly left alone, though I dared not leave a car parked anywhere.

        I probably hate NYC more than you do, though I still have friends that live there. IMHO, it kills your soul. I’m glad you got to see your play and survived intact.

      • “When I crossed the city line, I considered myself dead, generally as I was splitting lanes on the Deagan and FDR”

        I was not in a good place scared to ..years later I knew a truck driver that went to deliver at the wrong time of day..someone stole his radio he called the police and they asked him if he was stupid..they wouldn’t go into that neighborhood until daylight..

      • Yup.. let nature do the rest..no power no water or sewer.. transportation at a stand still..
        If you think BLM and ANTIFA was a nightmare.. Burn Loot and Murder.
        There would be mass chaos..

    • “Two on the Left coast, two on the other Left coast ”

      Oh.. Pish Posh.. LOL the Pentagon has said it is not a threat to the United States or its allies.
      nothing to worry about at all… they say it is not a threat to anyone…according to Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby that said in a statement on Wednesday that the test launch “was not deemed to be a threat to the United States or any of its allies,” by U.S. intelligence.
      so really according to them we have nothing at all to worry about..

      BUT… are they telling us the truth.. or just easing the concern’s of the people.. Brandon wouldn’t lie to anyone would HE…

    • “Russia threatens to wipe out the entire US with just four Satan II missiles”

      Oh.. Pish Posh.. LOL the Pentagon has said it is not a threat to the United States or its allies.
      nothing to worry about at all… they say it is not a threat to anyone…according to Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby that said in a statement on Wednesday that the test launch “was not deemed to be a threat to the United States or any of its allies,” by U.S. intelligence.
      so really according to them we have nothing at all to worry about..

      BUT… are they telling us the truth.. or just easing the concern’s of the people.. Brandon wouldn’t lie to anyone would HE…

    • The new Left (Gulf) coast would take up the slack from those other two Left Coasts. The interior of North America has been regarded as a cash cow for the milking by the coastal leaches since colonial times.

      The idea of someone launching a sparse NBC attack against US coastal targets without escalating to that proverbial massive exchange of lightning bolts isn’t really plausible. NBC warfare is number one on the list of the games you can only win by not playing. If I’m not making a credible point, then gets Stu to explain it to ya (to give Stu his due). Empires (and people) just aren’t wired that way.

  11. “We did tell you the “fix was in” due to the jury and the judge. But for those who missed it Special counsel loses first trial of Trump probe; Sussmann acquitted.”

    With two Hillary donors, an AOC donor, and the husband of a horny FBI Agent on the bench Durham had no chance, and he knew it. The purpose of the Sussman trial was to establish certain facts and get them into the public domain where they could be used to fry bigger fish, not to convict an admitted-guilty petit player but to lay the groundwork for things to come…

  12. “NYC explores gun detectors in subways after mass shooting.”

    ‘Pretty sure I could build a gun that’d pass through any “gun detector.” I believe Glock and SIG already have, for the U.S.Marshal’s Service and the spooks.

    How ’bout they treat the illness, not the symptom…?

    • you don’t need to @Ray… what is a gun.. back in the sixties and seventies.. zip guns were the big concern..
      take away guns from legal owners and the only ones that would have guns is the criminals that are getting them from other countries …. where the USA is the largest gun dealer.. and the military.. where to get a gun here.. you have to go through a criminal check.. three day wait.. I bought an un-working old gun to be put on an old west display.. and it took me three days before they would turn the gun over to me.. the thing will never shoot and if someone tried with that gun they would be hurt.. yet there still was a three day wait..

      • AFAIK, in FREE States like many of the ones I pick, I can buy a rifle, carry-out. I believe there’s a 7-day wait for handguns in Indiana and Ohio, but don’t know, since I haven’t bought a peestola in several years. ‘Course, NY and NJ make up for the gun-freedom I see between Western Pennsylvania and the Illinois/Indiana line. NY firearms laws make honest folks felons, and ignore the dishonest ones. They are the reason I no longer carry…

  13. Bear on the boat: need to print a few of your (subscriber) charts to compare with my own count. We are on different waves. Part might be explained by my Index choice. The DJIA is meaningless IMO, being too small a sample. I used to count SPX but … since FAAN(M)G became an outsize S&P component, I switched to Nasdaq. The Comp has a bit more violent moves which make waves stand out.

    My cipher (a week old now) suggests we are deep in large ONE with the reflex (or, reflux?) rally begun 05/20 starting 4. Soon this rally should end (see Fib targets sent by email) leading to 5 which … would end ONE (down). But, my abacus is missing several wooden balls (the cat swiped ’em) so I could be all at sea? We’ll see.

    Write when you get clairvoyance.
    Egor

  14. Anyone doing any pondering about non-automobile (4-wheel) transportation?

    Have any thoughts about 2-wheel transportation? I mean most of the world moves on mini-bikes and scooters; is that something whose time is (has) come to the USA…?

    I guess the baseline for the thinking is something that will/can carry a bit of cargo and get you 50-75 miles on that gallon of gas.

    • I enjoy riding motorcycles, and I can either get 40 mpg from a powerful road bike or the same mileage from a carefully driven four cylinder car. The difference is in carrying capacity and comfort in all weather. The bike is fun, and the car is practical. There was a time I rode a heavy bike in all weather due to the impossibility of safely parking a car in the city. I don’t intend to do that again unless it’s the only way to survive.

  15. I still use Elaine’s technique of written notes when watching a lecture, even an online one if it’s important. The act of writing, or even typing in notepad seems to embed the ideas, and it’s also helpful for review.

    When possible, I always record lectures or presentations, including the video. Some presenters don’t like that, but it adds major value if there’s a complex slide that needs to be understood.

    Universities could learn from that, but it’s unlikely. They still seem to be in the dark ages regarding learning techniques and many other things.

  16. Three “whodathunks:”

    Cyber agency: Voting software vulnerable in some states

    Electronic voting machines from a leading vendor used in at least 16 states have software vulnerabilities that leave them susceptible to hacking if unaddressed, the nation’s leading cybersecurity agency says in an advisory sent to state election officials.

    https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-technology-georgia-election-2020-a746b253f3404dbf794349df498c9542
    __________

    COVID isolation suspected as factor in Buffalo, Uvalde mass shootings

    Families of both suspects mention pandemic-based isolation. As academics across disciplines study negative effects of lockdowns and vaccine mandates, feds fund research on “climate crisis” effect on teen mental health.

    https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/covid-paranoia-suspected-factor-buffalo-uvalde-mass-shootings
    __________

    Rape Allegations Against Russian Troops In Ukraine Were Fake

    There is a first and still very low noise signal that the Zelenski regime in Kiev is coming apart. Six weeks ago there were suddenly many claims that Russian soldiers in Ukraine had raped people.

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/05/rape-allegations-against-russian-troops-in-ukraine-were-fake.html

  18. A 3400-year-old city emerges from the Tigris River

    A team of German and Kurdish archaeologists have uncovered a 3400-year-old Mittani Empire-era city once located on the Tigris River. The settlement emerged from the waters of the Mosul reservoir early this year as water levels fell rapidly due to extreme drought in Iraq. The extensive city with a palace and several large buildings could be ancient Zakhiku – believed to have been an important center in the Mittani Empire (ca. 1550-1350 BC).

    https://uni-tuebingen.de/en/university/news-and-publications/press-releases/press-releases/article/a-3400-year-old-city-emerges-from-the-tigris-river/

  19. Top-Paid LA Lifeguard Earned $510,283 In 2021

    Who knew that LA lifeguards—who work in the sun, ocean surf, and golden sands of California— could reap such unbelievable financial reward? It’s time we put Baywatch on pay watch. In 2019, we found top-paid lifeguards made up to $392,000. Unfortunately, today, the pay and benefits are even more lucrative. Daniel Douglas was the most highly paid and earned $510,283, an increase from $442,712 in 2020.

    https://openthebooks.substack.com/p/top-paid-la-lifeguards-earned-up?s=r

    • Let’s not forget that these lifeguards get the pick of the litter regarding groupies! For some reason, they get adoration from young, pretty, hot babes that may not even be able to swim, but want to share their bodies with this random guy sitting on the tower. It would be a choice job even if they got paid minimum wage.

  20. Have you changed Halloween to now ? Are you all. brain dead ? Do you have cognitive function ? Your finished . Go on ramp if I say anything . You are evil desperates led by the new joe biden . Klaus schwab rules the new world. I got gold you can all f yourseves

    • I can’t help but think that Len writes in some kind of “code” that I just don’t get and will never be able to crack.

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