Massive relief rally early. But after that…who knows?
As we begin the week, there isn’t much ahead until the Fed’s “Consumer Debt” report. Wednesday. Which they call consumer “credit” because they are creditors. We’re the simple-sap debtors...
To us, it’s a reasonable time to reload for the fall and what could be another round of virus issues. All the while sitting on depreciating cash. With a Fed Like this, who needs commies?
George Jumps Over the Candlesticks
I don’t mention the Japanese art of “candlestick” charts, very often. If you don’t know what they are, it’s yet-another way of looking at the market – and very similar to the open-range-close charts. A cheat-sheet on some of the major formations may be found over here.
In our work on the Peoplenomics side, we have a little different approach to things as my own (odd) view of things has evolved. One is to look at the markets as an aggregate. Because oftentimes, the Dow will be painted down while the Big Players are loading up. And, when they figure “enough is enough” – they will “paint the Dow higher” to unload at a peak.,
Charting all this is, to me, made easier with “trading boxes.” The idea is that while Elliott Waves and trend channels work as well (or better) than other forms of technical trading, using numbers and “boxes” to show a range of trading is visually pleasing and makes this OBVIOUS to a somewhat vision-impaired mad scientist.
Take this morning, for example:
Which Pattern Dominates?
The “major Down red boxes” to around March 23rd inform us as to the decline. But there are two “solutions” to what’s going on now.
As you can see, the five wave boxes begin moving up with a thin green from the March. Kind of hard to see, but it’s just above and left from the “5”. A small red, then a larger green, and, as you should be able to see, the recently completed left-most Green) box is our “problem child” that could resolve today.
In the “Five Elliott Waves Up” view, while we might go slightly above the closing high of June 8th (28,308.75) intraday, a close just the tiniest bit under that would be spec-frigging-tacular. Oh, and as of this morning, early futures were painting the “World didn’t end over the holiday” rally was set to pop up to 28,245, or so.
(Let me drop into my Columbo/Peter Falk voiceover here…)
“Der’s did one ting, sir, and ma’am: Ders dis A-B-C ting that couldha also been goin on…yeah…dats it. Dah yellow boxes…see dem?”
The yellow boxes offer that a “grand all-time Fake-Out” of the bears would be an A-B-C rally which – instead of ending at the top of the smaller count 5 would end as a hyper C wave in an ABC corrective wave from the All-Time-High around February 19th.
I don’t offer investing advice…rather, I just look at markets and give you a point of view to roll around. What you see/do/act on is between you, God, and your trading platform, although these last two often get confused.
Let’s Monetize The Sun!
With nothing to do (sitting on wallet until market resolves) we keep going back to the Media Inquiry we sent to the NOAA Solar Weather group up in Boulder, Co. First couple of days of June.
Reason? Well, NOAA has changed predictions about what’s ahead for the Sun.
You may remember the .TXT data file (scrubbed as of July 1) held that the Sun was effectively “going out” and that a new Maunder Minimum looked possible.
Now that NOAA has “disappeared the .TXT” file and instead put up a .JSON file (.txt files never go out of data, but .KML parsing? Kidding, right?) the NOAA PR people are free to sell “normalcy bias.”
EXCEPT – Notice the yellow area on the lower right of this chart? The old .TXT data file said no solar cycle ramp until 2025 – yet the PR people have proclaimed it is so…
What we were wondering about was a) why the difference between projections…was there a meeting of grand solar poohbahs that we missed? And b) if there was a change (*its obvious, right?) did Ure miss the press release?
Had a delightful note from research Patrick Geryl on point – been on my “meaning to get to it pile” for inclusion when the gap between actual and predicted began to get interesting (which is now). Patrick’s take?
“Aha, yes, I know what you have seen. The observed flux for cycle 25 is lower then cycle 24, while this isn’t for the sunspot prediction. This is clearly a fault from the NASA guys…
It isn’t the only mistake…We found an easy formula to converse both numbers to each other. It can be found on ResearchGate. Mind: there is copyright because it was accepted by an astronomical journal.
Meantime, another “odd disconnect” in all this is the data noticed by ham radio operators, like me, who are frustrated as well about the lousy propagation and – if the sunspots were really rising, shouldn’t we get some sporadic halfway decent propagation?
(We can hardly wait for the floundering higher-end, over-priced paper peddlers in Higher Ed to offer degrees in “solar observation” since anyone who can count to 250-or so, could line up for research grants…)
In short, we are left with the Big Ponder: What is the Monetization In Play here? We only have a couple of choices:
- NOAA is being forthright and sunspots will only peak in the 135 region in five years. BUT if that happens, it means Climate Change could be exposed for what it is… OR…
- There’s a plan to incorporate The Sun into the next Big Fear Cycle. Can you imagine the panic if there was a chance of a mega-flare from the sun? Dig holes, get three days of oxygen and a big-ass air conditioner and such? How many would survive the global firestorms? (It’s almost as big at the Aliens Showing Up Model, lol…)
For now, I will sit here wondering…
- “How many emails and phone calls to NOAA do I need to make?”
- …”Why are there more openings on the 20-meter ham band for my antenna tests?”
More Contemporaneous Paranoia
That the George Floyd death and CV-19 have utterly jumbled American thought processes is becoming a distinct possibility. Wait, was Columbus a slave owner? WTF with his statue going? Marxist medley, brothers and sisters. Especially when we read in Houston media how Protester killed on Seattle freeway was dedicated to cause.
Which happened because? (At a loss for the right words here) A solidarity demonstration was going on and a road was closed… Hold it: George Floyd died on May 25th wasn’t it? So demonstrators closed a freeway, um, five weeks later? What the hell? Sounds like two-bit Marxists trading on Floyds memory, to us.
For the deeply paranoid, this story about the (alleged) perp will make must-read lists: “Dawit Kelete, suspected CIA-USAID, ‘Playboy Assassin’ ” Well? Though nothing surprises us, anymore.
Oh God: New guilt-crazed mush-headed buzz-term to watch for: “Environmental equity.” As in How has Indianapolis responded to climate change? This commission wants to find out.
So now, local governments will not provide effective law enforcement, but they will become involved in a mighty battle to make sure the heat impacts all equally? I mean WTF? OMG, it rained more on white people…everyone demonstrate!
…And the hype just keeps on coming (and it’s why we can – like the unscrubbed earlier data hinted – allow Global Cooling to get legs. Because Societal attention toward extinction threats: a comparison between climate change and biological invasions
Meanwhile, where’s our Money??? Ma Jones is hawking “Could Paying Farmers to Store Carbon Help the Climate and Save Farms?” and the Ure’s could become fabulously wealthy off our trees.
And ANOTHER idiotic phrase: Climate Karma – as in Mr. Amazon’s Washington Post touting how “Arctic Oil Infrastructure Faces Climate Karma.” One sure sign of mass delusion from too much media? Could be confusion over environmental animism in lieu of simple economics. Wait! No grants, though…no new degrees…These people ought to have PhD’s in trans-domain sexualsocial cultural gibberish.
Not enough bullshit to amp you up? Try this pulp-headed pap: “Climate change ‘fueling deadly India lightning strikes’. Seriously?
Lightning hits the earth 8-MILLION TIMES PER DAY, people. Get a frigging grip. (or share the crack-pipe.)
Here: Example of science versus bullshit for you:
Alarmist headline first: “Climate crisis: Mysterious pink snow in Alps sparks fears over accelerated melting.”
Remember the big “Dust clouds off Africa story” a couple of weeks back? 12-days ago, NBC was linking CV-19 to dust storms by headlining “Coronavirus-stricken U.S. faces another problem: A massive dust cloud from Africa.”
Fast forward 2-weeks. Guess what? Shit lands somewhere. Oh, and looks reddish brown. But hey! Don’t use science and logic. Instead whip that paranoia about climate. Yee-haw! Get along little sheep! (sound of whip cracking).
I know what’s let’s do! How about we monetize being rational?
…aw, skip it. It’d never sell. Ego-animism if a far easier ploy and we can all become gender-checkers to one another. And think of the new tech that will be needed so we can demonstrate and gender-check while maintaining safe distances. Welcome to the “Demon Haunted World.” (You are the demon, lol.)
I’m going to lock the doors and eat breakfast now….
Write when something happens we can make a buck on, ‘cuz everything else is filler.