Pullback or Toast? A 10-Year Weather Event

Little real economic news to begin the morning.  Oh, sure:  Italian retail sales and Denmark’s industrial product matter…if you’re Italian or Danish.  It won’t be until an hour before tomorrow’s close that we’ll see the U.S. Consumer Credit ( Debt) will be revealed.  With it, comes reassurance that we’re still spending way more (as a country) than we’re making.

Thanks Nancy, thanks Shifty, thanks Wuhan Market.

Big Rally –>  Big Pullback?

How hard is this?  Our ongoing saga of chart-watching hoping to answer the question:  “Pullback or Toast?” in a timely-enough manner to make a buck.  Here’s where we looked in the early futures trading numbers projected into today:

Looks to me like a “No Man’s Land.” 

In order to become a Bull convert, we’d need to cross (and hold a day or three) over the upper overhead line which we seem set to bounce off.  As of the open this morning.  Gets above the higher line and yeah…then some of the people who see five more years of rally coming might have an argument.

Bears are in a similarly difficult evangelizing position:  Before the “bear case” can be really made (along with an End of World is Here!) we need to at least drop below the lowest points so far in the yellow area on the right.  Absent that – and then breaking the March lows for good measure – it’s like walking into a casino where “none of the tables or machines are calling.”

In the Shorts

On it drones.  Take an anti-hysteria pill before reading:

Need help understanding Ms Mayor?  Well, slow Joe doesn’t have a running mate.  Gallego is a democrat.  What more do we need to fill-in for you?  N’other day pof UBS (first word is “useless” – need more help?)

Local Weather Event:  Return to Roslyn?

If you haven’t gotten “out and about” in America, you may have missed some of the finer things in life. 

One of which was a famous tavern in Roslyn, Washington (not far from Cle Elum on I-90 down the east slope from Snoqualmie Pass) which featured a “fresh flow spittoon.”  So famous is the landmark that various articles (like this one) can be found on the net.

Founded in 1886, Roslyn was a coal mining town.  The barman who served me, back in my motorcycling days, told me not only did the “fresh flow” get used for “chew” – occasionally miners (who took their drinking very seriously) would use it as a free-flowing urinal.  So as not to be interrupted in their drinking.

Which has what to do with a vicious thunderstorm with tons of lightning coming through the Ure’s place overnight? 

The River George

Well, sir, (or ma’am – or one of the 53 other varieties) opening the shop door out to the “welding area” I discovered a local kind of “fresh flow.”  So, to recycle some coffee, let’s see if you can “figure how I leveraged this opportunity” without help?

Recycling done, the next stop was the rain gauge which had overflowed itself.

And that got me to thinking:  How many people (especially the prepper-space monetizers) have ever taken seriously the idea of a “10-year or 25-year” rain event?

They do happen – and with some regularity.

Oilman2 couple of years back you’ll remember (at his (overtaxed) home down in The Woodlands, Texas), went through it with the Houston floods. Remember them? Not everyone gets to live a soggy adventure like, this,  but there are plenty of conditions that can lead to too much rain.

China is on watch over the Three Gorges dam right now.  Too much rain in the highlands that feed down into the river.  Stories like China braces for storms, floods abound.  Over the past couple of weeks, there have been enough experts predicting the dam will fail that it’s likely to stay put.  So we hope…

Around here, 6-inches of rain in three hours is not unheard of.  Neither is 9-inches in six hours.  But, it’s rare. A 25-year event.   Still, looking at Lake George  – the former welding area – I figured it’s a less-than-ideal day to tune-up my stick-welding art.  No coaching needed.

By the way, the local power company (Trinity Valley Electric Coop) kept the lights on through the whole thing  And it was a super-impressive lightning show with a continuous performance from 3:30 AM until about 6:30.

Natural Weather – Or Something Else?

While we don’t rule out that there’s a Weather War going on (payback for virus?) the odds favor this is just natural forces are at work.

In the  Mad Scientist’s Notebook, the explanation would simply be that “At the Solar Minimum (and perhaps continuing, depending on who’s being honest in their data) we would expect global cooling.  Which means – when cool air holds less moisture – that exceptional rains would be a predictable outcome.”

Predictable? Confirming data?  Like Japan warns of more heavy rain in flood-hit areas?

Which was only marginally reassuring when – sitting with the first hot cup of coffee in front of Elaine’s computer in the house –  a loud buzzing sound came out of the speaker just as a strong flash was seen.  And within a second, I was about blown out of the chair by one of the loudest peels of thunder  ever.  The kind you check windows for cracks, after.

Except for the hot coffee on the lap, it was exceptionally entertaining.

Oh, and the “stress test” for my roof repair in the guest room?  Failed.  Back to the drawing board when it dries out.

Life in the woods is never shy on adventure.

Have a drier day than us…and write when you get rich,


37 thoughts on “Pullback or Toast? A 10-Year Weather Event”

  1. Seattle’s new tax. This will be a item that almost every local government will be implementing. The covid and slowing employment and local purchasing will certainly reduce most localities income. These local areas just cannot print more money like the Feds, so either they raise taxes or cut some spending. We all know most democratic leaders will never reduce spend. At least in here in Georgia the republican governor’s budget has cut some spending, but we will see how it comes out in negotiation with GA house and senate.

    I am not sure when schools may re-open, but locally that is normally the largest budget item. Maybe this will slowly change now where more families will choose some form of home/internet based education and requirements for buildings might be reduced. Likely most local school systems will fight to maintain and increase budgets no matter the trends. For most people with options available, there is no need for local education. It would be easy to register for virtual schools any where in the world, that fits your children needs. Of course there will be those that cannot or will not manage their own children’s education, so some form of local physical education may still be necessary.

    • “I am not sure when schools may re-open, but locally that is normally the largest budget item.”

      Well around here they have said five weeks the schools are opening as normal.
      Most of the parents that had to teach at home are anxious for them to get back to school to. Seems these kids that haven’t had to stay home don’t have the patience to deal with children.

  2. I think everyone should be keeping a “weather eye” on solar output. Why?

    Well, it is the largest and only source of our energy – without it, there would be no oil to drill for.
    Without it, solar panels don’t work.
    Without it, we have ‘snowball earth’ and no wind or much weather.

    With a zero sunspot count, as G and most hams know, there isn’t any skip because our magnetosphere shrinks. Watching that magnetosphere lately, it shows a lot of weakness. There are big places it is almost thinned to nothing. Why important? Because magnetosphere is our shield for cosmic rays, which induce mutations in DNA and have other effects.

    I was right there @ my farm, a short drive from G’s place when this round of storms came through. While the rain was appreciated, it was fast and intense. Our ravine went from dry to several feet deep and our creek from 3 inches to six feet plus in about an hour.

    It looks like George will be making a diversion berm uphill of his shop. Hope he doesn’t try a ditch – they don’t work long due to silting up. Gabions anyone?

    Around here, at this time of summer, we are into the “long, dry season” that lasts into fall when the cold starts to run fronts down from Canada. So while not unheard of, this was irregular. The only big weather changer out there is sun energy, or lack thereof. No big volcanoes going off to point to either.

    Also interesting is NASA/NOAA crawfishing on their previous estimation of an approaching solar minimum. From here in the cheap seats, it isn’t approaching (already here) and there isn’t any historic data for NASA/NOAA to claw back from their former position.

    Since EVERYTHING is already monetized, I think the new mantra might be that ‘everything that can be politicized will be’? NASA/NOAA is no exception – they need disasters unending to grow their budget slice and there is no reason a pot of “experts” cannot rationalize and leverage pseudo-science into politifacts, is there…?

    I’m kinda at my end of listening to “experts” at this juncture, after Covid. What used to be science has become monetized and thus corrupted, politicized or agendized, take your pick. That leaves me with relying on my BS detector and falling to “Cui bono”, Occams Razor and lately Hanlons Razor even more often.

    I quite literally have eschewed watching ANY televised news – it’s like walking into a parrot farm with a single farmer as the source of new sounds – endlessly repeated phrases and keywords across the entire news spectrum. It is no wonder many people remain confused, when their news sources singular feature is a complete lack of logic and criticality.

    Looks like a slow newsday, so it’s likely the talking heads will roll out the fringe stuff and spin it into fear porn…gotta keep the sheep chewing that cud after all….

    end stream O consciousness….

  3. “Pullback or Toast?” what in the blazes U bee talking about Kemosabe?

    Sounds like U bee “bowl roasting” prior to looking at your charts/graphs/magic squares – this market ONLY goes UP!

    Sure there is an occasional pullback, but in general we bee going higher, we alwayz do!

    This is a BUYING Opportunity! buybuybuybuybuy..

    The best part about this whole dang shooting match – its all based on the fed “printing” more Promissory Notes and that is a beautiful thang cause NVDA just hit a New ALL Time High !

    Have U seen TSLA – they bee bigger (marketcap) than Intel, IBM, DIS,Ford&GM combined- plus U can run Ure Bitcoin mining rig off Ure Tesla while it be parked in car port/garage – how cool is that?

    So CDC admits Common Cold virus will result in POSITIVE Covert19 anti body test results – didnt see that one coming..

    We have obviously cured Pneumonia as well- see current mortality rates -hmmmm

    Death rates for the Covert19 Phys-Op have been going DOWN for 10 weeks straight – whooopeee

    So how do the et lies (“‘elites”) make up for the Death/Mortality delta gap?

    Pump up the violence in inner cities – and let the “less fortunate” fill in the missing death quotient.. pre positioned Fireworx in select neighborhoods for weeks leading up to the 4th – raise up the Stress levels -night after night – its like living in a War zone. pre positioned just like the “mysterious” pallets of bricks were pre-positioned in selected cities.

    Pullback or Toast – that is THE Question…facing the deep state apparatus..Hello George!

    Cherry picking results …July 2019 -July 2020 Bitcoin is Down $2198 at current price of $9275

    U see true Assets actually go down in price in a free market – BTC used to be free market until they officialized (rhymes sodomized) Futures trading..dirty,filthy evil money LOVING bastards that they are..


  4. Did you guys notice Google took over most of the Internet July 4th?

    Google consumer ads are now everywhere. Ad Blocks are useless against the google keiretsu.

    I have a Yahoo mail account (time flies). Up until July 4th I’d be prompted to whitelist the site. Now ads appear and no more prompt.

  5. Schools in my Suburb of Birmingham (Trussville AL) are well funded and have all new facilities, including an expensive new stadium and and expensive new coach. This weekend the news was they will open, but will have option 1 (full online home school) and Option 2 (Full online home school with some on campus stuff (probably music, band, sports, and Extracurricular Activities.) for the motivated.
    I think what the school districts will find out is class sizes can easily grow if one good teacher is giving online instruction and has some teaching assistants to help grade papers. This reduces both personnel and plant costs.
    Look for a trend in the future for secondary ed (where they are old enough to stay home alone) to go all online and primary (K-7?) will still be on campus so working parents will have somewhere to safely park kids for the day.

    • BTW to not be confused, the Standard option will be On Campus instruction with Option 1 and Option 2. They are watching when enrollment happens early August to see how many take the options.

  6. We have had monsoons before that were a mile wide and 6 feet deep. flooded my friend’s place twice now, and there are huge berms he built. We shall see.

  7. Yo Tex,

    Perchance U be paying attention to Universe/Source ???

    That “flow’ outside Ure laboratory is a SyncWink brother man..wakeywakey? or bakeybakey.

    Dont be a “loaf” Noah – might be time to get cracking on that ‘”ark”/sailboat..

  8. Silly question George.. what did you do when you went to repair the leak?
    Is it a flat roof or a gable 4/12 pitch or steeper

  9. Hawaii State budget is a mess. Lawmakers slashed and burned everything they could…. except state employees. “Freeze on Hiring or replacements” was as far as that went. They all still have jobs at full pay, and some get ‘overdue raises’. The State’s ‘solution’ is now to borrow $1.3 Billion/year from the Fed at 1.7% interest, and continue to dig the hole deeper for the next six years…. hoping somehow to be able to pay this back in the future.

    Tourism arrivals are down 98.9%. Tax revenues down proportionately. “Death by debt” is now in play for this state government.

    • Hey Hank, are their discounts to be had to a first time Hawaii visitor? Do you recommend anything/anywhere special/in particular/recommendations? YES, this is a huge general question intent on getting some good advice for the future. Thanks in advance.

      • Well the airlines are luring with cheap airfares, but the rest of a ‘vacation’ experience here is a morass. You WILL be quarantined in your hotel room for 14 days upon arrival, and responsible for your own food deliveries. Random checkups by the health dept and hotel workers to ensure compliance. We hear regular news reports of arrests of quarantine breakers with heavy fines, and some ‘deported’ back to the mainland.

        The ‘tourist economy’ here is mostly shut down, many small shops gone out of business completely. Of course you can roam the beach, but be sure to ‘social distance’ and wear a mask at any retail establishment or store or any human interaction.

        I don’t know about the future. The state is trying to get visitors covid-tested 72 hours before flying in to Hawaii to avoid the 14 day quarantine, but that is not finalized as yet. Now we are having cluster-infections with our largest daily numbers because people are not taking the isolation thing seriously. July 4 there were crowds of local people at the beach and I didn’t see a single mask! I expect there will be even larger clusters in a few days when the July 4 party-spread becomes apparent. This will not be ‘over’ in our lifetimes, I think. One will need to remain distant and isolated if one does not wish to get infected nor spread infection. I don’t believe Hawaii’s tourist economy will EVER recover even a fraction of what it once was.

  10. As close as you are to the Gulf, I’m surprised you don’t have even more of what we locally call “Tropical embedded” thunderstorms. I guess your ‘mountains’ aren’t high enough to block a weather storm in one place. I’ve seen thunderstorms press up against a mountain ridge and stall in one place, sucking in moist airflow from the south and dump continuously for hours and hours without moving. I had a transmitter site building at the summit of a hilltop on a ridge. It was downhill in every direction from the front door, but still the water came in the front door a foot deep because it couldn’t run off the hilltop fast enough!

    And the lightning is spectacular when a thunderstorm runs into a 14,000 ft volcano. Had a strike on a water pipe across the street… 20 yards away. Ever stand next to a Howitzer when it goes off?? When I bought the volcano ranch here, the first thing installed were ground rods and #4 stranded all around the house before the antennas went up. Lightning arrestors on all lines entering the shack, and every lightning suppression and grounding trick I learned in 40 years of broadcast engineering were installed on the ham station.

  11. Queen Mary is alive and well. The Queen of justice, truth and the American way is out with her new book! All Hail Mary Trump! Finally !

    Can’t wait to hear what lame brain excuses you Trump supporters come up with to downplay this latest book. It’s one of many of a barrage of books from relatives, former staff and executive branch employees etc. When this many people come out and blast Trump, it’s no longer a one off. It’s a huge trend and problem.

    • I still have no idea why you come here to this site, Mark…

      You don’t leave much behind you other than hate, spite and mayhem.

      Your postings are never positive or affirming.

      I haven’t read you sharing anything that is apolitical.

      Do you even lift, bro?

    • Mark, please take your Trump negativity and copy of Queen Mary’s book and keep
      Dementia Joe company in his basement bunker. The rest of us lead fulfilling lives.

    • marxist, lame brain sounds about right, we appreciate you describing yourself perfectly! Well Done as they say in Jolly Old England.

    • The spread is widening (disapproval of trump vs approval),

      mirroring the thickening plot, (end of article, what happened to writer daring to address Queen’s marriage, circa 1500)


      Maybe Trump’s sister is being paid by Soros and it’s all just a Commie Socialist Takeover Plot for Caucasians to accept becoming a minority.

    • Mark,
      About the books you are gloating over, educated adults understand that they filled with lies, half truths, and unsubstantiated innuendos.
      They are right down there with Hollywood tell all books. Just curious do you like crackerjacks?

    • @Marx

      and this mary source is like all your other information inputs…YOU rely on ‘hearsay’ and hatred for someone or thing by bias people ..and then come here and ‘school’ all of us about how educated and brilliant you are…and your opinions we all need to heed..you have just offed yourself in my ‘book’….wtfover

    • A decade ago, I worked with a guy who talked about Al Gore incessantly. He didn’t like Al, and he blamed everything globally warm on Al. The fact is, he blamed everything on poor old Al. It didn’t matter what the conversation was about, Al was to blame. After listening to this stream of conscious OCD ranting and raving for months on end, I realized that the coworker had a secret thang for Al. I kind of wonder if all these incessant DJT tweeters and posters have that same issue; they just use their bashing to cover their secret thang for old Donald. I mean, if their progressive social contacts ever suspected ….

  12. Quiz…

    What do these fine fellows have in common:

    William Kristol
    Robert Kagan
    John R. Bolton
    John Ellis Bush
    Frank Gaffney
    Richard N. Perle
    Gary Schmitt

    • PNAC Project for New American Century global zionists, mfers like markie’s Lincoln project

      • DING, DING, DING!!!

        They are not “like” the Lincoln Project — they ARE the Lincoln Project!

        ‘Cept for one thing. I kinda cheated, because I included Bolton here, but:

        With the exception of John Bolton, these fellows are the unnamed founders of the Lincoln Project. You won’t find their names on the wackypedia entry for the Lincoln Project, but they’re there, and were from the beginning. I’d been ignoring them as simple “never-Trump” whackjobs, until I accidentally discovered last week that Bill Kristol was the founder and force.

        FWIW although Jeb Bush was an original member of PNAC, GW Bush was not a member, even though his Cabinet was packed with ’em. However, he IS a member of this… Bolton and GW joined up after the project began.

      • Ray of sunshine, the swamp creatures do not like the light being shined upon them. Continue to be like Tom Bodett ,,we’ll keep the light on for you

  13. Perhaps the lack of jet contrails to reflect sunlight by day and trap heat at night is having an effect on the weather. These are the bluest skies I’ve seen in quite some time. Whether this is enough to cause exogenous 3-sigma or greater weather events or alter the Hadley cell circulation is unknowable to me without a good computer model.

    Hmm….’good computer model’- did I just say something oxymoronic?

  14. For your information:

    Texas Doctor Reverses Coronavirus Symptoms in 100% of Cases With Inexpensive Treatment

    https: // www. youtube. com/ watch?v = eDSDdwN2Xcg

    Great video!

  15. Wonder how long they will let this Maxwell gal stay alive. I guess until she starts naming names.

  16. I think you fellows stumbled onto something yesterday. Why not issue sunspot/global cooling credits ? You would make companies that have reduced their carbon footprints buy’em to requalify for operating permits. Pay Ure toll to the the climate guy trolls. It isn’t really a question of right vs wrong, or cooling vs heating; it is that everyone must pay to support our climate guy troll industry. Climate guys are very important, just ask one. I swear I saw canned polar bear meat for sale on a website yesterday.

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