Little real economic news to begin the morning. Oh, sure: Italian retail sales and Denmark’s industrial product matter…if you’re Italian or Danish. It won’t be until an hour before tomorrow’s close that we’ll see the U.S. Consumer Credit (né Debt) will be revealed. With it, comes reassurance that we’re still spending way more (as a country) than we’re making.
Thanks Nancy, thanks Shifty, thanks Wuhan Market.
Big Rally –> Big Pullback?
How hard is this? Our ongoing saga of chart-watching hoping to answer the question: “Pullback or Toast?” in a timely-enough manner to make a buck. Here’s where we looked in the early futures trading numbers projected into today:
Looks to me like a “No Man’s Land.”
In order to become a Bull convert, we’d need to cross (and hold a day or three) over the upper overhead line which we seem set to bounce off. As of the open this morning. Gets above the higher line and yeah…then some of the people who see five more years of rally coming might have an argument.
Bears are in a similarly difficult evangelizing position: Before the “bear case” can be really made (along with an End of World is Here!) we need to at least drop below the lowest points so far in the yellow area on the right. Absent that – and then breaking the March lows for good measure – it’s like walking into a casino where “none of the tables or machines are calling.”
In the Shorts
On it drones. Take an anti-hysteria pill before reading:
- Non-shock #1: Hundreds of millions of dollars goes to COVID-19 contractors accused of prior fraud.
- Non-Shock #2: Tax Amazon’s Successor Passed Seattle’s City Council, and You Can Already Guess What It Does. In commie-led Seattle? Gee…. (Though we wonder if this could “deFAANG” the Zon.
- Non-Shock #3: Indiana Republicans to launch initiative to recruit Blacks and Latinos.
- Non-Shock #4 is that politicians are playing the blame game over the virus. An example today? Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego says federal government denied requests for COVID-19 testing help.
Need help understanding Ms Mayor? Well, slow Joe doesn’t have a running mate. Gallego is a democrat. What more do we need to fill-in for you? N’other day pof UBS (first word is “useless” – need more help?)
Local Weather Event: Return to Roslyn?
If you haven’t gotten “out and about” in America, you may have missed some of the finer things in life.
One of which was a famous tavern in Roslyn, Washington (not far from Cle Elum on I-90 down the east slope from Snoqualmie Pass) which featured a “fresh flow spittoon.” So famous is the landmark that various articles (like this one) can be found on the net.
Founded in 1886, Roslyn was a coal mining town. The barman who served me, back in my motorcycling days, told me not only did the “fresh flow” get used for “chew” – occasionally miners (who took their drinking very seriously) would use it as a free-flowing urinal. So as not to be interrupted in their drinking.
Which has what to do with a vicious thunderstorm with tons of lightning coming through the Ure’s place overnight?
The River George
Well, sir, (or ma’am – or one of the 53 other varieties) opening the shop door out to the “welding area” I discovered a local kind of “fresh flow.” So, to recycle some coffee, let’s see if you can “figure how I leveraged this opportunity” without help?
Recycling done, the next stop was the rain gauge which had overflowed itself.
And that got me to thinking: How many people (especially the prepper-space monetizers) have ever taken seriously the idea of a “10-year or 25-year” rain event?
They do happen – and with some regularity.
Oilman2 couple of years back you’ll remember (at his (overtaxed) home down in The Woodlands, Texas), went through it with the Houston floods. Remember them? Not everyone gets to live a soggy adventure like, this, but there are plenty of conditions that can lead to too much rain.
China is on watch over the Three Gorges dam right now. Too much rain in the highlands that feed down into the river. Stories like China braces for storms, floods abound. Over the past couple of weeks, there have been enough experts predicting the dam will fail that it’s likely to stay put. So we hope…
Around here, 6-inches of rain in three hours is not unheard of. Neither is 9-inches in six hours. But, it’s rare. A 25-year event. Still, looking at Lake George – the former welding area – I figured it’s a less-than-ideal day to tune-up my stick-welding art. No coaching needed.
By the way, the local power company (Trinity Valley Electric Coop) kept the lights on through the whole thing And it was a super-impressive lightning show with a continuous performance from 3:30 AM until about 6:30.
Natural Weather – Or Something Else?
While we don’t rule out that there’s a Weather War going on (payback for virus?) the odds favor this is just natural forces are at work.
In the Mad Scientist’s Notebook, the explanation would simply be that “At the Solar Minimum (and perhaps continuing, depending on who’s being honest in their data) we would expect global cooling. Which means – when cool air holds less moisture – that exceptional rains would be a predictable outcome.”
Predictable? Confirming data? Like Japan warns of more heavy rain in flood-hit areas?
Which was only marginally reassuring when – sitting with the first hot cup of coffee in front of Elaine’s computer in the house – a loud buzzing sound came out of the speaker just as a strong flash was seen. And within a second, I was about blown out of the chair by one of the loudest peels of thunder ever. The kind you check windows for cracks, after.
Except for the hot coffee on the lap, it was exceptionally entertaining.
Oh, and the “stress test” for my roof repair in the guest room? Failed. Back to the drawing board when it dries out.
Life in the woods is never shy on adventure.
Have a drier day than us…and write when you get rich,