That small list – three items on today’s agenda – will cover more ground than the evening news will tonight. The reason has to do with longitudinal versus latitudinal events in the art of “deriving future.”
A “longitudinal study” is one that (*easy to remember) takes play over a long period of time. By its nature, “daily news” lacks important long-term contexts. Which is really, too bad, since long-term contexts are critical.
A “latitudinal study” is what the news is. Big, ostensibly wide, and covering a ton of “what’s nowness.” Take Covid reporting. The reason the vax plan worked was millions of people were whipped up into fear (of dying) based on present-day numbers. Latitudinal data, you see? Today – even at this late stage – “the news” still doesn’t own up to puking on the important latitudinal data. Which is why media was, demonstrably we think, complicit in the maxination program, Even now, the legacy “bullshit label” (conspiracy theory) is broadly applied. A scapegoat for the inability of “the news” to convey the cloth of any “Whole Truth.”
That’s also a variant of the mechanism that gets Tucker Carlson in trouble, as well. The jury that jailed the cop in the George Floyd case was railroaded by media and social pressure into ignoring – in effect covering up – the autopsy data in the case. Imagine – a “murder” trial and no autopsy inspection or cross. The new American way? Or just, as we fear, just this Collapse Period’s take on Popular Delusions.
This may seem like an odd nit to pick on a Monday, but how we move forward into Future will depend on whether our “information surveys” in daily life are designed to merely look around the room, or whether a long-term view of human history should also inform us.
We never proffer “financial advice.” But we do review history when it comes to financial markets. We also read a lot.
Though most of our readers know who Nicholas Kondratieff (also spelled Kondratiev) was, you may have never heard off him before. A Russian economist, he was to tell Russian strongman Joseph Stalin, in about 1926 that a massive collapse and Depression would befall America shortly. Stalin was thrilled.
Except, then Kondratieff explained that the United States would rise again from the ashes of finance and again be the dominant superpower in the world. This didn’t go so well with the blackhearted Stalin. Kondratieff spent the rest of his life in gulags.
All “normal” people (like us) need to know is that a long-term cycle of economic expansion and collapse was detailed in Kondratieff’s work. Which bears heavily on how the rest of this month is set to roll.
In Kondratiev’s Paper on the Notion of Economic Statics, Dynamics and Fluctuations, published in 1924, Kondratiev’s conclusions were as follows. 1. Prosperity years were most common in the capitalist economies during upswing periods. 2. Agriculture suffered more and long depressions than did industry during price downswings 3. Major technological innovations were conceived in downswing periods but were developed in upswing periods 4. Gold supply increased, and new markets were opened at the beginning of an upswing 5. The most extensive and devastating wars occurred during periods of an upswing(Mager, 1987, p. 27)”
In our modest work (with infinitely more details on my Peoplenomics.com subscriber site) looks at how “working people look at the metrics.” There is some small, non-zero chance, that the K-Wave – which up until how had run 48-60 years, centering around 54-years, has been extended by manipulation of money. perceptions, and metrics.
You see, long-term inflation (which logically extends economic cycle length) had never been tried before. A fellow named Ehor and I proposed an 83 to 85 year Currency Cycle. This work proposed that countries naturally fall into “revolution and/or war” mode when their money becomes fully debt-saturated.
You can use the Fed’s own data to see how the K-Wave was jacked. Because in 1913 (when the Fed was snuck into existence over the winter holidays) a steak dinner cost only a dollar. Today, using Fed inflation confessions, the same meal will cost you $30.79.
Flipping the math over, we see the “purchasing power remaining in the “dollar” is but a mere 3.247 percent. Revolutions occur (broadly and historically) when purchasing power drops under 3 1/2 to 4 percent.
Of course, Ehor and I were wrong on one critical point of logic in calculating debt saturation over time. In classic ceteris paribus error, our concept was (and remains) solid. We simply didn’t include manipulation of perception in ways that could change the public thinking, thus maintaining unfounded belief in the economic system as viable. Several became apparent in retrospect. Our work was mono-modal. In other words, we projected based on present conditions.
- We did not include a “life span modal” calculation. That is to say, if the currency regimen of a country is mostly stable over an economic lifespan, currency bases can be changed about every 50-70 years. As, for example, the transition from Dollars to Federal Reserve Notes.
- We did not model the arising of a perception of useful inflation. Yet, if you have ever seen any of those house flipping TV shows, you know that the whole game is predicated on prices always going up over a long-enough period of time. As bad as America’s $33 trillion in public debt (about twice that with interest) is, Japan is ahead of even us.
- We did not model the lifespan extensions wrought by modern medicine.’
- …and we did not envision (who could have in 2001?) a disease/bioweapon being loosed to reduce population.
The biggest financial crimes/manipulations in my lifetime were, then, in no particular order: Nixon ending convertibility of the Dollar and closing of the gold window. The change from U.S. Dollars to Federal Reserve Notes. And last, but not least, was the financial engineering to keep the economic system intact about as long as the average economic lifespan. (The average “working life”)
The Waveform Tells All
By 2001, I had already begun work on how a meta index might be able to sort the wheat from the animal droppings. Thus, when we use a “modern Index of Indices” we can with somel degree of confidence see how this conspiracy of normalcy worked out in practice. Look at the 1920’s Dow Jones data and how the waveform is similar to present times:
What we simply believe is that we are at (*extremely high) risk of continuing down the right side of the chart very much in keeping with the 1929 debacle.
Which, if we overlay things just so gives us this:
While the market was fixed, earlier, on continuing the selloff early today, even in the lead-in to the Great Depression there were many very short (and violent) countertrend price rallies. Which meant that people were suckered in and then had their money taken when, due to fear, they couldn’t handle the risk.
This gets us to the second topic in today’s line up.
OEB – October Ends Badly
The four weeks ahead – beginning today – will reveal volumes about how this “rhyme on previous collapse” plays out. You should see what we are looking for, but with tensions rising globally, we may (due to mode changes) have squandered the equivalent of the period from 1929 to 1939 already. This intervening period was use in a previous Great Depression to prepare for the next “War to End All Wars” (that didn’t).
Today, we may not have time. Hence, we figure this to be the period of the Manufacturer’s Resource Wars. Yes, which includes petroleum, natural gas, lithium, and the critical rare earth metals.
To see where this ore car is careening and about to fly off the tracks, consider today’s prospects:
- Biden briefed leaders of 5 NATO countries on impending Armageddon in the Middle East: Hezbollah’s goal is to capture the Galilee,
- Israel-Egypt war over Sinai: Netanyahu responds to al-Sisi with outpost bombing – Nine Egyptian soldiers wounded.
- Pope and Biden discuss Israel-Gaza conflict in phone call.
Did you happen to catch, no media apologies as By blaming Israel for Gaza hospital blast, media spread misinformation. We’re beginning to think Hamas is doing more harm to liberals than the whole of the republican party has been able to. Can you be Jewish and not be a republican with all the dem’s pro Hamas support? Cheque.
Up north of there (1,288 miles north of Tel Aviv is Kiev, to be specific about it – about as from Seattle to San Diego):
- War update: Ukraine Defense Forces down all enemy drones attacking Ukraine last night.
- Does Ukraine have a “glowing future?” Situation worsening at Russia-captured nuclear power plant – energy minister (ukrinform.net)
- And here’s the money ball: Ukraine receives EUR 1.5B from EU – PM Shmyhal.
Out in the WestPac:
Whether Xi will take Taiwan before all the US arms show up (next month?) or whether he will wait out Taiwanese elections in January and try to negotiate his way in, remains to be seen.
But even without a Taiwan war, could we see the Philippines engage? Philippines Says Coast Guard Ship and Supply Boat Rammed by Chinese Vessels at Disputed Shoal. Again, if you’re not awake (and don’t see it yet) this is about resources as in Resource Wars. Earth is on the ragged edge of the Petri dish.
Oh, look, says our Houston Bureau. Another chomp on the agar! Chevron to buy Hess Corp for $53 billion in second oil mega-merger in weeks.
While we wait, do we score another one for Wrong-Way Joe? US Chip Export Ban ‘Great News,’ Says Partner At Chinese Tech Investment Fund Who Foresees Boost For Domestic Ecosystem. Sanctions are a kind of economic irregular warfare, when you think about it. Send coats to Europe for the winter, while you’re at it.
On to CFNAI
Against a backdrop of a republican clown circus – which could shut down government if egos remain unchecked – we see the latest data out from the Chicago Fed as a very light weight on the scales of future. But useful, nonetheless:
“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.02 in September from –0.22 in August. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from August, and two categories made positive contributions in September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to a neutral value in September from –0.14 in August.”
From here, we will be waiting for a good short-term rally to enter short after a (possible) low this morning. But the rest of the month doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.
Come to think of it, we’re 10-days out from a Fed rate hike [decision].
Line ’em up, boys!
- House enters third week without speaker as 9 Republicans vie for gavel (mtstandard.com)
- Michigan State apologizes for displaying photo of Adolf Hitler before a football game | The Independent
- Donald Trump Speaks Out Over Melania Bikini Report (newsweek.com)
And we push for a moment in the light of unbearable “hypeness” to read how BTC price nears 2023 highs — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week (cointelegraph.com) which is still less than half of the 2021 (Nov. 8) high. Don’t wake sleeping sheep, though.
Swear to God, some morning’s it’s like I’m writing curriculum for the Pied Piper School of Bullshit.
You know who the Dean of this school is, right? US will build ‘new world order’. His (democrat) Holiness says the “world has run out of steam.” But in reality, no one is articulating worthy goals year. So here on feedlot Earth the herd’s about to do stupid things. You’re either seeing them start to move already or stand by to be trampled.
Around the Ranch: Radio Planning
Yes, the garlic-rosemary pork loin roast with gravy for Sunday dinner was perfect. Sometimes I miss my old “Sunday Gourmet” projects…
With the popup patio project nearing completion, the next biggie here will be rewiring the ham radio listening post in my office to something a little more useable. Here’s next week’s antenna wiring plan:
Someone really into ham radio would notice that this is a four-layer equipment layout with multiple radios. Reflecting my tastes for Morse code, low power operations, and using tube type equipment when shooting the fat (“rag chewing”) on the low bands at night.
Second deck (down from top) only has a switched antenna to the Louden Boomer (linear amplifier) because everything else (SR-150/SX-117) normals through that amplifier. Just as the SB-220 normals from one side to the other of the main (MFJ) antenna/radio six-by-six switching.
The chosen MFJ design allows for accessories between antenna and equipment sides. For the amplifier, though, there is additional outboard RCA/phono switching of keying and ALC lines.
For the old radioman, this is cheaper than other hobbies, like restoring old Gull-wing’s. Hobbies are the cigars and brandy of life.
The latest Big Antenna project is coming along in the design phase, as well with the high wire antenna promising great results with no lossy tuners/baluns. Which we will get to in November, if Life doesn’t light up between now and then.
Off to write more on The Parimutuel Investor for Peoplenomics subscribers Wednesday. No more “horsing around” until then.
Write when you get rich,