imageThe real economic truth is that we don’t have a new consumer product that will result in lots of employment, unless you’re an app builder and already there are signs and portents that’s a kind of peaky thing.

But that doesn’t stop more conventionally-minded economists from wringing their hands about the possibility of a U.S. default later this month.  It’s one of the hot items as Congress gets back to work today.

Besides the potential for a budget crisis, we note that Paul (secret trade dealer and open border believe) Ryan is still floating around as a possible Speaker of the House.

This is turning into all kinds of fun to watch, since the Repugnican Corporate Committee is being forced into the unenviable position of reveal just “whose bitch” it really is.  My money is that it will eventually be revealed as the all-time sub for the K-Street mob (always a top).

But, like whether the gay old party is going to come out as lap-puppies for corporations over time, is not the issue.  It’s TIMING that matters.  Status quo is a hard drug to kick and the Repugnicans will no doubt try to talk themselves out of going to rehab until the party is all but dead from overdosing on financial favors…the current political drug of choice.

You see, there are two ways this can work.  One way would be for the corporations to install a moderate who will keep the harness gear on and thus, maintain the corporate quo.  The other way (if we don’t get 50-shades of crooked) would be for the Republicans to re-emerge as the party of small central government and states rights and, as long as we’re at it, a balanced budget.

The repugnicans have suffered a curious kind of slow-onset values rot that has been going since the Reagan days.  You’ll remember that radio bloviators have been doing their best to deify Ronald Reagan as the best Republican ever.  Yet a liberal friend reminded me this weekend:

“  Reagan holds the percentage record for debt growth outside of WW2.

Strangely enough, Reagan also holds the record in percentage growth of non-military Federal government employees (my personal favorite measure of “size” of government), followed by Bush2.

In both cases, the fastest growth of Federal civilian employment was when the GOP controlled both houses and the White House. On that measure, it is really quite surprising that there only two sessions of Congress since WW2 during which the number of employees dropped.

Those were both All-Dem Congresses, the first two years of Clinton, and the first two years of Obama.

But here we go on to the second part of the problem:  the Demoncrats come along on a good story and do a little “window-dressing” on the front end, but as soon as they get their mits on power the same problems come back.

Which is why the demoncrats are just as bad as the repugnicans:  They are promoting what one NY Post write described as an eminently indictable presumptive nominee” while the current office sitter has failed every measure of transparency with the secret (sell-out?) trade deal and what I believe to be impeachable misfeasance on immigration.

{Hat tip to Michael Walsh of the NYPost for that fine phrasing about her we cannot support.)

Since it’s Monday, though, it’s easy to blame Congress, so that’s where spin-the-breakfast cereal ends this morning.  And, as always when we play Spin The Breakfast Cereal, there’s a terrible mess to clean up afterward.

And this time is no different.  So we’ll milk it for all its worth…

About That Market

Figuring the political circle-jerk isn’t getting us anywhere, Wall Street should wake up this week and run for hiding.  In fact, a 10% decline in stock prices would make a lot of sense in here.  People aren’t buying a lot, except cars  and that doesn’t an economy make.

So in Asia overnight  Japan was  down 8-10ths of a percent, China held its own, and in Europe today Britain and France were down a bit while Germany was up a bit.

Bitcoins were up to $266 but some of that is coming on news hype.  Seems that CryptoCoinsNews is reporting that an Oztralian commission is looking into the bankster scree closing down bank accounts of Australian Bitcoin traders/dealers.

Like government, banks hate competition…so this should be an interesting thing to watch.

The Weak Ahead

Until we start seeing some good news in the flow, there’s not much upside left in the stock market, as I see it,  Oil is going to thrash around in the upper 40’s seems like, and while that’s going on, the vultures in the oil patch with deep pockets will be trying to buy up future resource on the cheap.  When that pie’s been sliced, then oil will recover.

And that should be in time to slap the economy back down.  That is, if the Fed threats to raise interest rates before the year is out don’t do us in first.

A broken budget, soaring (creatively accounted debts) and two arguable co-opted by the corporate purse parties are hardly grounds for optimism.  Remember we still have 14+ months of the current regime to suffer through before we can even hope for change.

And given how the policies of both the demos and repervs are nearly identical, we can only sit back and see what the Big Check Writers are out buying.

Hype and Hope should lead to a modest increase in 2016 markets, but after Q1 ‘17 I’ll be leading the fear-mongers  – but not as long as the S&P stays above 1,700. 

If it gets smacked down below that in the turdbulence (sic) to come, I’ll be introducing myself to the dust bunnies under the bed where we’ll be hiding.

Housing Starts tomorrow. Leading Economic Indicators Thursday.  But with little besides political follies, with the kids back in school, this would be a fine week to sneak in a vacation, skip class, or go traveling, depending on where you are in Life.

Oil Dropping, Too

Somewhere off in the background, there are stories about how future demand in China is one driver of the falling oil prices today.

Bolstering the concern is the continuing decline in the Baltic Dry Shipping Index which closed last week at 754.  A couple of months back, this index was up in the 1,000+ range.  When it gets down into the 600s, it is sometimes taken as a sign that real recession is on the way.

We still anticipate more downside action in markets through November, and possibly into early December this year.

Fake Reviews?

Ever wonder if some of those reviews on Amazon are real?

Well Amazon is going after the shysters who put up fake reviews.

I wonder how much of a hit that will put in Fiverr revenue…

Drone Registration Overdue

May be in the works as the government looks at the airspace conflicts that are cropping up.

As mentioned in Coping this morning, anything more than 250-feet above the closest charted obstruction is a reasonable.