Since this is a “holiday” I wasn’t going to do a column this morning. However, because of world events, tomorrow’s column may be a Peoplenomics subscribers only report, depending how the global markets look when I get up (far too early) Tuesday.
Although our trading outlook has been bullish both in the short-term and long term models, I told you in Friday’s report I was looking at dumping my long-side position and going to cash because of my “spidey sense“. To save you having to look up what Prince Prescience said: “This one (weekend) is especially “jittersome” because of the crazy people in North Korea. Not that we don’t have plenty of our own, too…(*as I nervously scan headlines out of DC…)”
My going to cash executed in two blocks, both at 10:06 AM Friday. Both dollars are now in cash.
This morning’s work plan has me applying our novel way of looking at the markets to the global picture as well and projecting it forward.
As you may have noted in the comments section, one of our subscribers commented on our approach to things this way:
“I think your Displaced Moving Averages has some real merit… at least based on my first trade using it. Also, I back tested it & it shows a lot of promise….”
The limitation of all trading models is that they are modestly constrained by the Eternal Now, unless you project moving averages into the future which is one of the factors in our modeling.
The other, of course, is learning to look at markets in an aggregate manner. Obviously, you wouldn’t infer much about the general level of grocery prices from just buying a single pound of butter.
But if you bought a standard list at each of 10 stores every week, then you might be able to comprehend what Keynes (the globalist poster-child for globalism) called the General Level of Prices.
Not to be confused with the more interesting GLP discussion site, lol.
Point is, you can’t infer much from buying a “pound of Pounds,” and “gob of Gold,” or a “truck of Bucks.” You need to look at the whole McGillah – and then make informed decisions.
Or – since we don’t offer financial advice – find someone in the investment world who can make such judgments on your behalf and who is qualified to manage money.
Blah, blah, blah…the whole thing then comes down to where the Peoplenomics Global Index will be pointing tomorrow, and the projected U.S. Aggregates within that. And once we have that, then we can apply our quirky mix of trend channels, Elliott, and project it all forward into something useful.
Or, so we hope.
If there is only a Coping section and a reader note tomorrow saying “Today’s report is for Peoplenomics subscribers only,” that’s what’s going on. $40-bucks a year is “cheap seats in the front row” but it’s not for everyone. You can ride the back of the bus, or not.
There has been some serious misleading in the MSM about the seriousness of the North Korean nuclear test. I mean, it’s serious bullshit what is being headlined.
Here are some examples of stories that really bothered me this weekend:
Even this morning, we’re reading “How North Korea’s latest test compares to past atomic blasts.”
This second story was making the rounds this morning and cited 120 kilotons as the yield.
Really? Ure doesn’t think so, and neither should you. Let’s roll with the math, shall we? While we’re at it, read and learn from a reporter who grew up in the 1950’s and who is married to a “downwinder,” OK?
Here’s how you double-check when the globalist (media swill) are trying to soft-soap and prevent panic.
You begin with the earthquake magnitude reported by the USGS site. If you haven’t see the “official” number, here it is:
Next, you need to know about the “Kelly Kiloton Index” (or KKI):
“The Kelly Kiloton Index (KKI), formulated in 2006 by H. A. Kelly of UCLA, in consultation with Geoffrey Mess of the UCLA Math Department, aims at giving a “realistic” picture of earthquake energy. It uses the kiloton (= 1000 metric tons = 2,200,000 lbs) as the basic unit. Here is the KKI range for Richter 6.0 to 6.9 and for 7.0 to 7.9:”
When we take the Data (6.3) and look up on the KKI index, we see that 6.3 equals 2,800 kilotons and this means (slide the decimal points 3 places left): 2.8 MEGATONS.
Since all of us back-yard nuclear weapons builders know the upper limit of “enhanced yield” (using reflector technology rather than pumping a fusion reaction) is perhaps 500-750 kilotons, this means Kim, et al, have jumped the “baby steps” and gone right on to the big “Whoa Shit” that could wipe out entire cities (and beyond with the fireball).
To be sure, the poser-pictures of the clean-machined model of the NK warhead are likely not accurate. But I think it’s a fair assessment that the odds are North Korea really has a seat at the poker table, now.
And the MSM doesn’t want anyone to panic.
We don’t want that, either. But I want you to write down my friend Shane Connor’s website, www.ki4u.com, and don’t throw out your eclipse glasses. That seems premature.
Oh, and also consider what life would be like if the NK’s decide to pop four of their big boys off while still above the Kármán line. That’s the legalish border between Earth and Space. That would put the U.S. in a terrible position.
Because in addition to having the nation-wide version of Harvey as the whole grid and electronic economy would collapse instantly, the U.S. would have the “sticky-wicket” of such an explosion happening in international space. Thus, the NK’s could argue it was an unfortunate series of space mishaps and not trying to beat-up or first-strike Uncle Sam.
That would be a lie…but that circles us back to this morning’s observations: Don’t panic, but do ready.
Little Darlings and Schoolings
This week (tomorrow) for a lot of districts around the country. (At least while the lights are on.)
Time did an article back in 2009 that projected the cost of raising a child then with options and college was about $1.1 million per child.
We tossed that in to the Minneapolis Fed inflation adjuster and that figure is up to $1.2525 million in today’s (funny if not hysterical) Federal Reserve papers.
That means raising four children is a $5-million problem.
Somewhere in here, it should become clear that a) higher education is a den of thieves who have not passed on savings from computers to the consumer. They are still in bed (with the textbooksters) trying to hose the parents and max the student loan flows for school. (I refused to sign a FAFSA for the Ure’lings and I’d urge you to do the same.)
Oh yeah: b) the roaring cost of kids has got to figure into the marketing of the G/B/T/Q/other lifestyle. The straight lifestyle isn’t making economic sense. All quite Biblical, too. Go read 22 Thomas for details. Also, the Google search on September 23 is worth scanning…
Urban Useless Department
An assortment of articles that argue the news capacity of the world is seriously overbuilt:
Torn between ViseGrips and a crack-pipe.
One Story Does Matter, Though
Bookmark the NOAA Irma Page here:
Now, off to model global stocks…have a fine day and pretend normal is a permanent condition…
It’s NOT but let’s try one more day or it. Please?