Labor Day Notebook

Since this is a “holiday” I wasn’t going to do a column this morning.  However, because of world events, tomorrow’s column may be a Peoplenomics subscribers only report, depending how the global markets look when I get up (far too early) Tuesday.

Although our trading outlook has been bullish both in the short-term and long term models, I told you in Friday’s report I was looking at dumping my long-side position and going to cash because of my “spidey sense“.  To save you having to look up what Prince Prescience said: “This one (weekend) is especially “jittersome” because of the crazy people in North Korea.  Not that we don’t have plenty of our own, too…(*as I nervously scan headlines out of DC…)”

My going to cash executed in two blocks, both at 10:06 AM Friday.  Both dollars are now in cash.

(Continues below)

 

This morning’s work plan has me applying our novel way of looking at the markets to the global picture as well and projecting it forward.

As you may have noted in the comments section, one of our subscribers commented on our approach to things this way:

“I think your Displaced Moving Averages has some real merit… at least based on my first trade using it. Also, I back tested it & it shows a lot of promise….”

The limitation of all trading models is that they are modestly constrained by the Eternal Now, unless you project moving averages into the future which is one of the factors in our modeling.

The other, of course, is learning to look at markets in an aggregate manner.  Obviously, you wouldn’t infer much about the general level of grocery prices from just buying a single pound of butter.

But if you bought a standard list at each of 10 stores every week, then you might be able to comprehend what Keynes (the globalist poster-child for globalism) called the General Level of Prices.

Not to be confused with the more interesting GLP discussion site, lol.

Point is, you can’t infer much from buying a “pound of Pounds,” and “gob of Gold,” or a “truck of Bucks.”  You need to look at the whole McGillah – and then make informed decisions.

Or – since we don’t offer financial advice – find someone in the investment world who can make such judgments on your behalf and who is qualified to manage money.

Blah, blah, blah…the whole thing then comes down to where the Peoplenomics Global Index will be pointing tomorrow, and the projected U.S. Aggregates within that.  And once we have that, then we can apply our quirky mix of trend channels, Elliott, and project it all forward into something useful.

Or, so we hope.

If there is only a Coping section and a reader note tomorrow saying “Today’s report is for Peoplenomics subscribers only,” that’s what’s going on. $40-bucks a year is “cheap seats in the front row” but it’s not for everyone.  You can ride the back of the bus, or not.

Kim-Kaused Konfusion

There has been some serious misleading in the MSM about the seriousness of the North Korean nuclear test.  I mean, it’s serious bullshit what is being headlined.

Here are some examples of stories that really bothered me this weekend:

North Korea has estimated 100 kiloton to 1 megaton nuclear fusion weapon test.”

Even this morning, we’re reading “How North Korea’s latest test compares to past atomic blasts.”

This second story was making the rounds this morning and cited 120 kilotons as the yield.

WTF?

Really?  Ure doesn’t think so, and neither should you.  Let’s roll with the math, shall we? While we’re at it, read and learn from a reporter who grew up in the 1950’s and who is married to a “downwinder,” OK?

Here’s how you double-check when the globalist (media swill) are trying to soft-soap and prevent panic.

You begin with the earthquake magnitude reported by the USGS site.  If you haven’t see the “official” number, here it is:

Next, you need to know about the “Kelly Kiloton Index” (or KKI) which find described here:

“The Kelly Kiloton Index (KKI), formulated in 2006 by H. A. Kelly of UCLA, in consultation with Geoffrey Mess of the UCLA Math Department, aims at giving a “realistic” picture of earthquake energy. It uses the kiloton (= 1000 metric tons = 2,200,000 lbs) as the basic unit. Here is the KKI range for Richter 6.0 to 6.9 and for 7.0 to 7.9:”

When we take the Data (6.3) and look up on the KKI index, we see that 6.3 equals 2,800 kilotons and this means (slide the decimal points 3 places left): 2.8 MEGATONS.

Since all of us back-yard nuclear weapons builders know the upper limit of “enhanced yield” (using reflector technology rather than pumping a fusion reaction) is perhaps 500-750 kilotons, this means Kim, et al, have jumped the “baby steps” and gone right on to the big “Whoa Shit” that could wipe out entire cities (and beyond with the fireball).

You can model your own town with the Alex Wellerstein online mapping tool here.

To be sure, the poser-pictures of the clean-machined model of the NK warhead are likely not accurate.  But I think it’s a fair assessment that the odds are North Korea really has a seat at the poker table, now.

And the MSM doesn’t want anyone to panic.

We don’t want that, either.  But I want you to write down my friend Shane Connor’s website, www.ki4u.com, and don’t throw out your eclipse glasses.  That seems premature.

Oh, and also consider what life would be like if the NK’s decide to pop four of their big boys off while still above the Kármán line.  That’s the legalish border between Earth and Space. That would put the U.S. in a terrible position.

Because in addition to having the nation-wide version of Harvey as the whole grid and electronic economy would collapse instantly, the U.S. would have the “sticky-wicket” of such an explosion happening in international space.  Thus, the NK’s could argue it was an unfortunate series of space mishaps and not trying to beat-up or first-strike Uncle Sam.

That would be a lie…but that circles us back to this morning’s observations:  Don’t panic, but do ready.

Little Darlings and Schoolings

This week (tomorrow) for a lot of districts around the country.  (At least while the lights are on.)

Time did an article back in 2009 that projected the cost of raising a child then with options and college was about $1.1 million per child.

We tossed that in to the Minneapolis Fed inflation adjuster and that figure is up to $1.2525 million in today’s (funny if not hysterical) Federal Reserve papers.

That means raising four children is a $5-million problem.

Somewhere in here, it should become clear that a) higher education is a den of thieves who have not passed on savings from computers to the consumer.  They are still in bed (with the textbooksters) trying to hose the parents and max the student loan flows for school.  (I refused to sign a FAFSA for the Ure’lings and I’d urge you to do the same.)

Oh yeah:  b) the roaring cost of kids has got to figure into the marketing of the G/B/T/Q/other lifestyle.  The straight lifestyle isn’t making economic sense.  All quite Biblical, too.  Go read 22 Thomas for details.  Also, the Google search on September 23 is worth scanning…

Urban Useless Department

An assortment of articles that argue the news capacity of the world is seriously overbuilt:

Kirsty Gallacher admits drink-driving in Eton

Here’s What the Royal Baby’s Name Could Be, According to Oddsmakers

Japan’s Princess Mako announces engagement

Among the Masters at the Ferrari and Lamborghini Museums

Now on Stage: The Countdown to a New Taylor Swift Album

Torn between ViseGrips and a crack-pipe.

One Story Does Matter, Though

Bookmark the NOAA Irma Page here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/205908.shtml?tswind120

Now, off to model global stocks…have a fine day and pretend normal is a permanent condition…

It’s NOT but let’s try one more day or it.  Please?

Comments

Labor Day Notebook — 28 Comments

  1. I believe before the tribulation begins, Israel must rebuild their temple in Jerusalem (the third one). There are plans to rebuild, but it has not started yet. Supposedly, the exact spot to rebuild is known & should not interfere with the Moslem Temple Mount. Should be interesting & greatly disputed.

  2. From my perspective current trajectory of Irma is Georga/south Carolina with heavy damage in the Jacksonville Florida area. That is what sticks out to me. Jacksonville. Eye of the storm there. It has been stuck g out to me. I know I know, where do you get your data from. I get it from everywhere around me. everything from a candy wrapper to song o the radio. Lol

    Ref Nk nuke test. Well, it looked like an earthquake to me. And we still have another one out there in the makings on the west coast US. I don’t subscribe to astrology, eclipses or any of that. I just go by what the world around me is telling me.

    It seems that China, Russia and the US are in the later stages of a proxy war through North and South Korea. However, I perceive no imminent threat. Just more of the same . I stead of it being all about Syria it’s all about Nk. IF the spark is lit that sets the whole forest on fire, it will be on a sunday. I have old data that I found on obscure website that I wrote a 7 years ago about North Korea.

    At some point you will have to make your call George. Is the tippy top of the stocks in? I don’t think so. I see the Dow going to 32,000 by 2019, with the collapse around may. May day!

    Lots of data relating to trains, or an incident with trains last few days.

    I’m union and I like it. You are right. Not alot of people are doing the trades anymore. All these union companies can’t get people. Everyone is heading into the tech industry. 500 application s for a network engineer job that pays $60k a year. Which you have to test and get all these certifications for, network plus, C.C.N.A. etc. Etc. To make less then I do driving a dump truck. Where as I can go anywhere and work, with a simple phone call. I get calls all the time to see if I’m working and if not to come to work.

    Well, best get busy. Moved in two loads yesterday. A place for everything and everything in its place.

    • Which sunday? I do not know.. I see Irma hitting the coast on 9/11. I find it interesting that Irma means Goddess of war.

      I am also getting some preliminary data on a false Flagg attack.

      This bubble we are In is a cash bubble. It’s different then the housing or .com bubble. I expect it to double inside as the housing bubble.

      Also I heard on the news radio that average folks are paying more in federal taxes annually then they spend on clothes and food. I am surprised you haven’t mentioned that.

      Yes, I will subscribe to peoplenomics soon. I just have bigger priorities at the moment.

  3. First of all , lets not underestimate the chubby N. Korean kid. Yes he may be crazy but he definitely is not stupid. My guess is that he has read Machiavelli and Sun Tzu. Which brings me to my question, Where is he getting all of his fissionable material????
    Our (U.S.) intelligence community (I know it’s a contradiction in terms)seems to be able to keep track of all of the centrifuges in Iran so why is it a surprise that N Korea now has a HYDROGEN bomb? and again I ask , where is the yellow cake coming from?

    • probably the Russians. T\I followed the trail once of yellowcake, mined in Russia, refined to uranium hexafluoride in France, then by container to Seattle (from le havre france) to Richland
      There Exxon nuclear refined to fuel rods which were then shipped to RWE, a west german utility to keep the lights on in Europe.
      When comes to nukes, there is only the corporate world – and this was circa 81, or so. myself and another reporte5r4 (kirk Williamson then of KALE in tri cities) got a regional SDX for investigative journalism for the story. But, my, how soon we forget, eh?

    • DPRK initially got their uranium from us (Clinton, and I can’t confirm it, but I suspect Bush41.) It is now getting uranium from Russia and China, mostly, as well as some from Africa, and possibly some from France, Germany, and the U.S.

      Jong Il was a master at shell games — meaning “games played with shell companies.” North Korea set up a myriad of shell companies, all over the world in the ’80s, for use in acquiring technology and materiel which were forbade them by treaty or sanction. Yong Un (or as I prefer to call him: “the Young’un”) is using these same shell games to further Jong Il’s (and Il Sung’s) desires. NK’s legitimate trade is roughly 90% with China, but their covert trade is with everyone, and likely nobody knows they’re trading with DPRK.

      Their rocket program came from the USSR, through a deal brokered between Il Sung and Tikhonov (under Brezhnev) for obsolete Soviet ICBMs.

      Their inertial guidance system came from Loral, via the Clinton giveaway to the Chinese — since modified with our GPS tech.

      Their researchers are a shared tech pool with Pakistan and Iran.

  4. Maybe you could explain in a Peoplenomics issue how to project moving averages out into the future. I do not know how to do that but I am willing to learn.

    • Going backwards in time I showed URTY as a buy on 8/24/17 & TQQQ as a buy on 8/28/17 which surprised me because in my typical eyeballing method, I had it reversed. A good system takes out the “it looks like a good buy today” emotional buying & selling. $40 has been well spent.

  5. The North Korea situation is just a weapon of mass distraction. Too keep you from noticing this (and other things).

    If you remove the deficit spending from the GDP, the USA has been in a DEPRESSION for several years now.

    George, you should run the numbers on this and tell your readers how many years that has been.

    The other factoid to keep in mind is that he USA dollar is actively being removed as the basis for international trade, especially for oil. Americans have no clue what this means, they will only notice when the symptoms show up.

    And keep in mind when the credit freeze occurs, and trading halts, you can tell your broker to move your cash (you did see this coming, right?) to your bank account and you will find your funds frozen and quite likely gone forever. Because if someone in that brokerage firm decides to transfer your funds to their bank account, you have no recourse different than recovering a defaulted debt, because you are considered a lender to your brokerage firm of those funds. This includes banks as well, where in 2012 regs were implemented making your funds in the bank a loan to the bank, not a deposit.

    • Yep, dollar definitely dying and will be dropped as the world reserve currency. Yep to the banks making depositors shareholders. Nope on date of announcement. Yes, on more to come.

  6. George, thanks for the info on the KKI. I’ve worked in a particle physics lab and never knew of that one. BTW, I’m not sure that thermonuclear really helps yield with NEMP. I had understood that an enhanced and configured fission device was best for that job, and sadly, either lil Kim has very smart people or very good connections. Probably both.

    It sounds like I have to put a battery in the old backhoe and start digging. That and fire up my old diesels, cage more electronics and check the food/fuel supply. A man’s work is never done.

    Happy Labor Day. It’s called that for a reason. Time to get to work.

  7. Ure.. we need a crash course on EMP effects on our solar panels.. and how what we need for getting back on line after a burst… please!!

    • That almost looks staged. Why would the Muslims tape such activities or allow someone to tape them?

  8. Well, now that the Big 3 super powers have stopped testing our nukes long ago where’s all the interference from ET now that Lil’ Kim’s playing with fire? They played Hell with our nuclear launch systems and rockets back in the day. Do the guys in the souped-up Frisbees know something or have they given up on us?

    I still think Kim is China’s and Russia’s surrogate aggressor against us otherwise they’d have done something about him by now. The N. Koreans have come a long way pretty darn fast in big bang technology. Do major countries have their own Horror Freight catalogs?

    Just my musings out here in cactus country.

  9. with all the crazies running around and the Mug Monkeys flinging mud at the president… what about russia coming into everyones house to tell them maybe even force them to vote for trump and by god make them look bad and force me to have a low opinion.my god we can’t have any low opinions of a group of people that work one month a year yet pass policies that are several thousand pages long and actually tell you there isn’t any way in the world they are going to crack its covers to see what is inside..http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2017/07/03/sen-rand-pauls-read-bills-act-is-it-really-too-much-to-ask-members-congress-to-read-legislation-before-vote-on-it.html
    https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/senate-bill/1571.
    well here is an interesting read.. I am not sure if it is real and haven’t done any research on any of it.. but it is a good read anyway..
    https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/2017-08-30%20CEG%20+%20LG%20to%20FBI%20(Comey%20Statement).pdf

  10. All this talk about what KJU can do to us. What about what we can do too? We have the same abilities to set off a EMP don’t we? And wouldn’t we see if a missile is launched by KJU that could deliver an EMP over the USA?

    Don’t we have technology to pop that missile before it gets anywhere near or do we have to think about submarines? If that’s the case, don’t we have an idea where their subs are? Aren’t we patrolling for such things? And one more thing, where the hell is this supposedly poor country getting all the money to do this? Isn’t NK just a proxy for China? Where’d all this knowledge to make these nukes come from if this country is so poor? If a supposed poor country like NK can achieve this level of threat, should we also believe some poor nation in Africa, like Zimbabwe, is also a threat? Whose really behind this NK threat?

    Isn’t this moment in time what all of our supposed precision military equipment was created for? And what about selling Japan and So. Korea nukes. They’re both much closer targets than we are. Let them have a role in this event too.

    • Im not always a fan of Piers Morgan, but he makes sense. China can bring KJU to his demise if they want to. All world leaders need to condemn China and demand they bring KJU under control or risk World War 3 and nobody wins.

      “A staggering 90% of all North Korea’s trade is done with China.

      China has thus become the great enabler of the world’s most despotic regime.”

      “China is now the world’s second largest superpower.

      That status brings with it a duty of care to the rest of the world.”

      The solution to the North Korea menace lies with China. If they refuse to take care of this threat to the world, then China is not a partner in anything but the destruction of Earth’s future and all the rest of us.

      When I’ve seen how the Chinese kill dogs and cats by boiling them alive, I’ve said if they can do it to animals, they can do it to humans too. (And don’t forget, Bill Clinton opened the doors to free trade with China and the destruction of America’s manufacturing base. The very mfrg. base that made the USA the envy of the world. Not anymore. For christ sakes, China makes most if not all the tires we use in the USA. Why on earth did our elected leaders give China that kind of economic power against us?)

      http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4851096/PIERS-MORGAN-won-t-China-rid-Kim-Jong-un.html

      • Too many good questions that continually go unanswered, we are never able to ask these questions of any sitting President or anyone running for the Presidency. Our media doesn’t ask these questions. Just like, think of it, the greatest military industrial complex on earth is the USA and we let 911 happen, WHILE we were running mock tests of planes flying into the twin towers; you can’t make this crap up. Surely American isn’t going to be surprised by NK just like they were surprised by OBLadenho and Japan during WW2 and Israel during the attack on the Liberty? Have we really not come that far?

    • You better look at the Wellerstein map, Coop.
      Hoover is in the circle for an air blast, Trussville and Pinson are on the outside of the circle (and on the back side of the mountain thankfully). Ground blast we’re both toast, with radiation all the way to Chattanooga.
      Irma is not our problem, yet.