JWW Friday: Jobs, Weather, War

ho was it, just the other day, told me they’d finished Jared Diamond’s book Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies (20th Anniversary Edition).  They remarked it seemed a bit wordy.  “He said things that could have been 10-words or less, in a hundred…”

Since I’m still carving out time to finish editing The 100-Year Toaster – which deals with the replacement of quality metrics by financial measurements – I am uncomfortably familiar with the writer/editor’s plight.

Pardon the mention, except to say GGS is still a good read.  How many words to use is a problem faced daily around here.  Which I will try to keep in mind as we roll through today’s JWW synopsis.

Jobs First

Though it’s anti-climactic.  Because the Jolts report from Labor was reasonable.  As was the ADP report Wednesday, and the Challenger job cuts yesterday.  No reason to expect any Big Surprised in the EmpSit report just out:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 187,000 in July, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, financial activities, and wholesale trade.

Still, we’re somewhat confident that while things might rally early, the Official data run from Labor looks like this for the last year.

Some historical data to consider on jobs.
Our take is that 268000 more people were working in the reporting month

We could mention other aspects, such as the number of jobs “estimated” into existence for the month.  280,000, so virtually all of the claimed gains in today’s report.  But some fraction of those estimates are real.

But beyond that, if you’re working, you may not care. And if you’re not working, you’re probably not looking very hard.  It’s become something of an employee’s marketplace.

Where We Are in Summer

I mentioned a few days back that with all the hot weather we’ve been seeing, we might want to watch for an upside surprise in the number of sunspots.  I’ll be damned, the Spidey sense hits again:

sunspot cycle prog ression chart
Notice that the Ukraine War kickoff seems to have lined up with the upswing in sunspots for Cycle 25 Please also notice the relatively similar position of the solar ramp around 1966 as the Vietnam War was ramping into Cycle 20 Why it almost makes me think there might be something to astrology because the old fashioned astronomy well is that a coincidence of relative irradiance change

Might it be that the recent pop is what finally broke our nice cool early summer this year?  My buddy the Major reminded us in a convo Wednesday about the almost endless string of hot weather in 2011. Spike in the cycle about then, as well.  Similarities seem to abound.

Notwithstanding, the Amazon Summer Ending Indicator has fired with the arrival of the Back-to-School tab on their pages.

If I was retired with nothing to do, I’d be studying which company’s earnings are most aligned with (and opposite) of the solar numbers.

What’s Also UP is Markets

Our market dart Thursday suggested a turnaround. Sure enough, we bounced at the upper green Wave II upper bound:

Wave 2 ending chart
On the upside the top of the minuet fifth is about 200 Dow points higher Instead we favor a modest runup into the close And the Wave III down questions staying unrectified until next week

It’s important to remember we are still “in the zone” where a marginal higher-high would fit.  As we described in Tuesday’s column. Our Monday call of a “week on rails” feels about right in retrospect. Can stories like Warren Buffet’s not worried about Fitch’s U.S. downgrade. Should you be? (consumeraffairs.com) paper-over the Fitch downgrade?

Phase Noise and Jitter

Keeping us “charged” in the electronics sense, while trying to keep a great S/SNR, the “Jitters” part may relate to Ukraine.  Where the news of an easy UKR victory is quite oversold.  Debacle of Ukrainians in Bakhmut: Hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers sacrificed in Berkhovka – Anger in the US with Zelensky’s regressions!”

But Ukraine is still kicking Russia as escalations continue “Russia accuses Ukraine of attacking Black Sea navy base and Crimea with drones.

Here in the hockey stick curve change of this war, seeing Russian ship hit in Novorossiysk, Black Sea drone attack, Ukraine sources say, makes us think about shorting over the weekend. Because we’re in event sequences that seem to hold little likelihood of positive upside events.  I’ve made more money on getting declines right than upside rallies.

Our view is we might see as early as this weekend, Ukraine/neocons escalating to more Moscow strikes, in order to force the Russians into first use of nukes. But the libretto seems plain, enough.

Also useful to know in the military sphere: 2 U.S. Navy sailors arrested and accused of spying for China, which is not surprising.  And not going anywhere is Niger President Bazoum calls for U.S. help in coup. America’s problem is we are out of resource and pretexts to light off a boots-on-ground offensive in a new region.  The Bought ‘It administration has negligently allowed us to be flanked by our resource aware competitors on the world stage. We’re losing – badly.  Like chess, tik-tock.

The Out of Phase Parts

Back in the Den of Dweebs, here’s how this will role. Appeals Court Allows Controversial Biden Asylum Policy to Remain in Place.

When woke invasion tolerance is challenged in the Courts, the liberals on the Appeals Courts will support the Open Border Nonsense.  If appealed to the more balanced Supreme Court, reversals cluster.

There is a reason some 1970’s major market radio news directors (at least 3 of us, anyway) agreed we’d refer to call it the “9th Circus Court“. If you have problems with normal thinking, seems like they gotcher back.

And speaking of government and the Courts:  Testimony from Hunter Biden associate provides new insight into their business dealings | AP News. Oh, no Courts.  Well, whoddah thought, huh?

ATR: Air Conditioner Follow-up

You might remember a while back I told you about the install and use of a nearly silent new air conditioner in my office.  But here’s some feedback you may find interesting:

I did some reading on the question. Found a reasonable (both sides of this) presentation in R410A vs. R32 | Differences, phase-out, retrofit 2022 – Ex-Machinery B.V. but read and make your own call.

Further point to Mark’s voicemail is that changing our view of things to more than “two measurements deep” to broader inquiries.  My decision was driven mainly by noise and reliability.

Got something to tell the world?  Leave us a voicemail on (903) 740-0596!

Funny Money?

Will the halving result in a doublingBitcoin miners need BTC price over $98K by the halving — Analysis (cointelegraph.com).

We have absolutely no sense of this, except that BTC is still down in the $29,100 range at press time.

On the other hand, a pal of George’s drop by last night.  He’s got a (PPA filed) patent for Instant Final Settlement which could actually make crypto make sense.  Because the system doesn’t require conventional server transits, and it also sets up a replacement technology to conventional DNS.

For now, he’s looking for an Angel while taking occasional breaks from weeklong code grinds to get the demo built. A few skydives from now, back to grinding.  (Dude jumps a 60, by the way, saying “If you don’t get as much from the landing as the jump, what’s the point, right?)  Prolly 10k jumps, dude is serious.

Interesting people around here, now and then.

Be sure to drop by over the weekend.  Second half of our gentle introduction to electronics troubleshooting should be along in ShopTalk Sunday. First part was last Sunday. Electronics is the favored hobby in the scalding hot summers in eTex.

Write when you get rich,

G

author avatar
George Ure
Amazon Author Page: https://www.amazon.com/George-Ure/e/B0098M3VY8%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share UrbanSurvival Bio: https://urbansurvival.com/about-george-ure/

33 thoughts on “JWW Friday: Jobs, Weather, War”

  1. RE: The China spies: Note their names. Jinchao Wei was born in China and was a naturalized US citizen. No info is provided on the 2nd perp, Wenheng Zhao. They each no doubt had relatives back across the Pacific who stood to gain if they complied with spying, or perhaps might even suffer retribution if the sailor(s) remained tight lipped on classified info they were exposed to on a day-to-day basis. Unfortunately, you can be certain that every ethnic Chinese soldier, sailor, airman or marine serving the nation, as well as those supporting the U.S. government as civilians, will now ball under an umbrella of increased scrutiny and potential career damaging bias, all due to these two bad eggs.

    • We may never know why but McConnell cashed his bride for the new Chinese model way back when. Nepotism too.

      • not all are evil.. I know several young ladies from China that work at the restaurant and a few that work for retail outlets and my acupuncturist is from Beijing his brother from Taiwan ..super nice guys.. the girls are great and I get the impression they are more afraid of us than we are of them.. I am pretty sure none of them are spies lol lol.. I did learn how to make a really good dumpling the other day though lol.. I will share that recipe soon..
        and watermelon rind butter yum..
        there are good and bad everywhere.. be the blind man or woman..
        A blind person only knows how they are treated and how someone treats those around them..
        honor , ethics and integrity

  2. Of bother and blather:

    The FedHeads should be celebrating our job nummers but have another month to digest before their next meeting. The best ciphers remain at BLS in Table A-15, in particular line U6 at:

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

    Me? I’d declare victory and let rates settle. But, higher treasury rates help schisters sell the >$1,000,000,000,000 on deck this month and next. Timing was awful but Fitch has it right. Our government needs to get a clue, buy a vowel, irt: insane borrowing.

    That the Ukranians damaged another capitol Ship is great news. You simply can’t replace hardware of this scale on second hand markets in Iran, or elsewhere. Unless CHN plays ball? All the blather about Wagner dangers to North are ill advised IMO. Great news that effective force isn’t in the South.

    ATL: final leg of repairing the neighbor kid’s Sunfish on deck (work here is better than at office any day). Last week we received 4.9″ of rain so lawns are growing again and … our farmers are in tall cotton (corn and beans actually). Saw a magnificent 12 point buck two days ago. Sail on master buck!

    Write when you get rain,
    Egor

  3. The U.S. government’s debt will rise by $5.2 billion — every single day for the next decade.
    – Congressional Budget Office.

    • $3.2 billion of which, we’re borrowing — every single day. I believe the other $2bln is service on that which we’ve already borrowed.

  4. Yes! Don Ho – the OG flyin Hawaiian.

    …”tiny bubbles in the wine, make me happy, make me feel fine..” https://youtu.be/muEFD_odvUg

    Easy Hank, steady as she goes, lets not get carried away with it being Friday AM and Mr Ho already be signing about tiny bubbles in his wine.
    ..ya know the dude sparked a doob just prior to noticing said tiny bubbles in his wine…

    ? becomes was it Kauai Electic, Maui Waui, or some sticky Puna Buddaz Don was smoking at the time. Personally, I would go for the ‘purps” (mauiwaui) – just sounds like more fun..besides you see the size of that wine glass ?

  5. Re: Ministries of Foreign Affairs
    feat. “Pride & Prejudice & Zombies”, 2016

    Folks,

    Let us be awoke. I don’t know if you received the memo already. However Chinese msm are extolling the news that the first two volumes of ‘Xi Jinping Thought for the Modern Era’ have now been translated from Chinese and published in 7 minority chinese ethnic dialects.

    Speaking of tongues of Babel, hot on the heels of last month’s silent replacement of China’s foreign minister, the Wikipedia page of the Canadian minister of foreign affairs has received editorial updates expunging and hiding from view recent prior content deemed objectionable. One could well imagine Mr. Xi’s chef from 5 star Soluxe International, a subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corp. and Huayou Cobalt, seeing fit to cater a steaming hot serving of egg foo young to the Canadian PM office signed ‘Love from the G20 shindig fracas’.

    Thank goodness the path to Oxford for politicians (such as Canada’s foreign minister) in the former colonies has been eased these past 40 years by the Chevening Scholarships Programme. The Programme is funded by the UK taxpayer and claims to “seek out friends of the UK who will be future leaders”. It is named after the official abode of the UK Foreign Secretary. Images of Grade 1-listed Chevening House built in the 1620’s may ring familiar with fans of author Jane Austen as the seat of the Lady Catherine de Bourgh in her machinations to seek a marriage of Mr. Darcy to a lady of the highest station. By the way, apparently the Chevening Estate Act of 1959 (1987) allows descendants and spouses of King George VI to receive shelter.

    Hold that thought! It’s DJ George breaking out of the static with a bopping CQ from Texas dropping code from Fergie and the Black Eyed Peas.
    “My Humps”.

    God save the King!

  6. Study from The Heritage Foundation, using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data determined that Americans have lost around $7,100 in spending power since Biden’s inauguration in January 2021.
    Annual income loss of $5,800 for the average American family., and an estimated another $1,300 loss of spending power.
    “The monthly mortgage payment on a median priced home is up 84%, or $820, since Biden became president.”
    The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s ‘Nowcast’ predicts a higher annual inflation rate of 3.42% for July 2023. Continuing inflation issues could lead to yet another interest rate hike when the Fed meets in September.

  7. With the temps remaining over 90 and the direct sun adding 50 extra degrees, it’s nearly impossible to work outside except for a couple of buggy hours early in the morning. I’m hanging out in the house until about 10pm sleeping and doing whatever, and then doing what I can that involves exertion from about 10 pm until dawn. I’ll stay with that for the next month or two unless I actually have to go elsewhere. At some point I’ll have to take out the tractor and mow, I suppose.

    • I hear you. Early June was an oven upper 90’s to 110 and up so I moved to 0400 – 1200 work day. The past few weeks it’s been in the upper 80’s low 90’s and this past week it has rained every day. We’re ramping up to cut another round of hay, fist time for this late in a long time. Still do early hours work schedule. Late in the day and evening it’s like walking into a steam room and everything is covered with a film of moisture. I’ll take it. If this is climate change, bring it.

    • It’s hard to find a piece of solid ground to put the corn out for the goats. It’s all powder. I lead the cows off after putting a sack of corn out to occupy the goats. The cows get some alfalfa now every other day or so. Everything looks surprisingly good except for the dead ones – goats that is.

      The danged goats love to take a siesta in the Sun but one or two of them just don’t wake up from that almost every day. Their brains fry and there’s nothing I’ve thought of to keep them from doing it. I found a goat this morning in the long chute between the corrales and a water trap over the hill just lying there. I could see one ear moving like it was flicking away a fly but it turned out it was just moving in the wind. It was stiff as a board with its head on its side. Goats use their stomach/sides like a pillow which made me think this one was just asleep. Nope. Stiff as a board and the buzzard I’d surprised coming over the hill had already made an hors d’oeuvre out of her eyeball – always the first to go if at all possible. They’re dying of heat stroke even though they have water, food and shade to lounge under nearby. The bone pile is going to be pretty big this year.

      What I really don’t get, but am thankful for, are the Angus cows we have not dropping dead. Jet black bossies and they’ll lounge around in the Sun, too. No sweating that I can see, just panting like a dog and everything comes to a stop when the temperature hits about 98. It’s 106 in the shade right now and no breeze that I can see. Gonna be a long, hot Summer. I spend all morning taking a couple of tanks of water to the North end before it gets too hot. Still haven’t got that other solar well put together yet.

      • “The danged goats love to take a siesta in the Sun but one or two of them just don’t wake up from that almost every day.”

        exercise them …make money and save money..
        have you ever considered a goat cart..yes..not joking here..youdook good at the reins of a goat cart. and rent their services out..they keep lawns trimmed follows what the administration and everyone is preaching in cali..
        think about it.. a seat for two..hot date on a full moon night..and you save the planet
        https://youtu.be/3DarsPGtdKk

        lol lol just kidding my wife hates the idea to lol..

  8. The Market in general was doing ok this morning., but when word came that multiple hospitals in multiple states were under some form of cyber attack., they reversed course and ended up down for the day., and week.

  9. Youse dirty rat bastard – Youse,

    Yes thats right – if not for reading Ure work this AM (4 stars) I would not have come away with that sinking feeling that I was in fact Swimming Bare Ass Naked in the Options end of the Pool. In my own pool – sure luv sunning my ballz, drives my wife nutz!
    No likey that feeling, as the smell of vulnerability started to tickle my nostrils, my internal alarm bells started jangling.. AaaahooooogaaAaaaahooogaaa!DiveDiveDive!

    So I pulled up my bootlaces tight, rolled socks over, and threw the best “knife hand” punch straight into the Spoos throat. Bot a shit ton of August 7thExiration SPY 444 Puts at $.09 ea. interday.

    One (1) Options contract = 100 shs underlying.

    Last I checked those bad boys are selling @ $.72 at the close, or 700 % gain – woot woot! THANKS G! Ure the Best!

    So hear is hoping big bad mother Russia = Da BEAR, kicks some moar Nazinato ass this weekend.
    Big down Monday.. and the coot will be https://youtu.be/Adw772km7PQ

    **** F- Joe Biden & Crime Family

    My Vote is for Drawing & Quartering regardless of mental stability. In fact I volunteer to ride a horse 2 Pull one of quartering ropes/chains – always stepping up, Ure welcomes.

  10. Say Hello, G, from your posted AP article:
    https://apnews.com/article/hunter-biden-congress-oversight-republicans-devon-archer-16bab963461fe48ee3baccc51e693c9c

    ‘Republicans on the panel hope to use their work to prod impeachment proceedings against the president. However, though pressed repeatedly, Archer offered no tangible evidence that Joe Biden’s role in his son’s work was more than saying hello during their daily family calls.’

    Sorry conspironauts, Devon wasn’t fibbin for no one!

      • Oh I can help with you acquiring crack..
        1 cup of sugar
        1_ cup of milk
        1 tbsp of butter
        1 tsp of vanilla
        1 bag of corn puffs
        1/4 cup of peanuts or cashews sunflower nuts etc your choice or leave them out..
        put the sugar in a pan on medium heat stir constantly while it liquefied and caramelizes .. once it liquefied and takes on that caramel color pour your cup of milk and vanilla and butter in it and continue to stir till it reduces down and starts to thicken.turn the heat off and pour it over your corn puffs and optional nuts..
        your caramel crack is now finished and ready to eat..

        • Yo Casey Jones – how in the hell youse gonna drive that train on Sugar ? U some kinda Magician ?

          YES!

          I dont see any alkaloids in Ure recipe ??? booooooooooooooooooooooo.

          Now that the “Notion” is crossing Ure headz – give a listen – solid advice hear..https://youtu.be/CxCfnq7A56M

          White Lobster – makes for best batches of “Da Rocks”/”CocoPuffs”, as it is Free (washes up on beaches in Belize) .

          All youse need is some “Rocks”, a glass pipe, cotton balls, and a bottle of 151proof Rum.

          Sunrise stroll along the edge of the Jungle/Beach when what do my wandering eyes see ? A “key” wrapped tight in plastic, da legendary “white lobster” – everyday is a good day to go for a walk..everyday.

          * thanx 4 recipe

        • “Thanks for the Moose Munch recipe.”

          lol lol we call it crack Alan lol lol.. once you start earing it your addicted and eat it till your jaws hurt lol lol
          Cocoa pops..
          1 cup of rice ( or two you chose)
          1/4 cup of coconut oil
          4 tbsp of corn syrup
          2 tbsp cocoa or carob
          one coffee can cleaned and dry
          2 lbs of salt ( I use black Smokey hawaian salt)
          1 wok
          1 sifter
          soak the rice over night or par boil it..
          dry the rice.. either in a dehydrator or oven for a couple of hours..
          place the salt in the wok and put it on the stove medium high heat.. when the salt is really hot.. put your rice in it and stir constantly until it pops.. sift the rice out of the salt..
          warm the coconut oil add the syrup and cocoa.. mix it into your home made rice krispies..
          you can do the same thing with peanut butter to just add a tsp of vanilla..
          then dry it in your oven or dehydrator.. bag it add milk in a bowl or just munch..

      • I am willing to bet that the old farmer in Iowa is dancing.. Joe ca!ked him names said he was a liar..now everything that was asked about was proven true..lol
        what’s funny is Archer just connected the dots..
        A friend of mine years ago miscalculated income and was off 400.00 the IRS went after him whole hog.. threatening him .. now we find out that tens of millions not even claimed isn’t even worthy of a fine.. A misdemeanor..
        https://youtu.be/xhcsQ8PZy5M

      • The transcript was released. Trolls are lazy, and don’t read official pubs, only the processed and condensed version, spit out by whomever they decide should tell them what they believe on any given day.

        The Dem inquisitors fed Archer some lines. He refuted them by explanation. The “media” attributed the fed lines, not the rebuttals, to Devon Archer. If you want to know what’s going on, go to the source…

    • Either blowing up the Nordstream pipeline or the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle are enough for impeachment. I’m sure there are at least 100 other events that would call for such a thing too. Refusing to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve amounts to treason on its own. J. Biden is supposed to be the nation’s top administrator, and he’s yet to provide a single instance of administering the nation competently. The actual trial for treason can await more evidence, but removing this assclown and revoking his clearances cannot. We can then focus on ejecting Cameltoe from pubic office!

  11. https://youtu.be/M6ynXfu7F0s

    this could change things.. A few years ago I was visiting with a prof. working with the sensors.. I asked him why many were not being published..he suggested that he wasn’t able to expand on the reasons because of confidential security reasons..
    consider the jaw breaker in a microwave test..
    As the earth warms its like a jaw breaker .. A few second melts the inner core.. microwave it long enough it will explode.. drill a hole in the jaw breaker you can replicate a volcanic eruption.

  12. “Still, we’re somewhat confident that while things might rally early, the Official data run from Labor looks like this for the last year.”

    In August of 2006 there were ~298 million people in the U.S. and 167 million of them were in the workforce (56% of the entire population). Today there are ~336 million and 161 million (47.9%) are working. I memorized that 167mln number at the time it was published, because the housing bubble burst at the end of August, 2006, and I thought it’d become a very significant number. It is the basis I use whenever some talking head, either inside or outside the Administration, touts the current employment numbers…

    • More stats for you. A friend sent me this today. I double checked it (Bing, not Google) and after pasting in the exact question these are the numbers that came up:

      This should be a wake-up call if you don’t already know this. A recent poll was conducted by a national polling outfit. Names don’t matter. They are all the same. This one was “YouGov.”

      Results to these questions asked of average people on the street:

      1. What percentage of the country is black? Street Answers — 41%. Actual – 12.7%. If you watch commercials, you would think it is 90%.

      2. What percentage of marriages are mixed race? Street Answers — 50%. Actual – 10.2%. If you watch commercials, you would think it is 90%.

      3. What percentage is “Latino”? Street Answers — 39%. Actual – 18.7%. (This one was the biggest surprise, IF it’s accurate at all after the last 2-1/2 years of Bribem’s Open Borders fiasco. -Bill)

      4. How many families make more than $500,000 a year? Street Answers — 26%. Actual figure — 1%. We think a quarter of the country is rich.

      5. What percent of Americans are vegetarians? Street Answers — 30%. Actual — 5% (or less).

      6. What percent of Americans live in New York City? Street Answers — 30%. Actual – 2.5% but only 84% are U.S. citizens.

      7. What percentage of Americans are ‘transgender? Street Answers — 22%. Actual number .6% (that is POINT 6)

      So why do people have such inaccurate thoughts on these counts? THE MEDIA! The media runs race, gender, and wealth stories constantly. Result? You are being brainwashed by the national left with the media. Hitler’s propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels would be proud if he had half the success. Disney just went full-on “gender.” It will no longer welcome guests with the traditional “Welcome ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls.” Why? Because .5% of the population dictates to the other 99% (that would be the vast majority), and corporate America falls for it. Next time you are thinking Americans have changed and not in a good way, remember, it’s mostly fake. It’s all a lie. Most people think just like you do but the media has brainwashed Americans with constant broadcasting of LIES. It’s called social engineering. It’s here and it’s effective.

  13. Lol lol lol lol otflmao…
    A story on mainstream news this morning talking about Trumps mishandling of confidential documents…lol lol lol lol
    but a couple of the Photos they showed was of the biden garage lol lol lol now that there is funny..
    I wonder how many other people noticed that small snippit. lol lol lol

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