I have been looking for the “keys to the bank” for a long time and am pleased to report that while I haven’t found the keys, our latest rule sets seem to be a large enough hammer that we can pull off the occasional “smash and grab” as we’ve done this week.
We’ll go through the mechanics of it in Peoplenomics tomorrow, but to say I’m happy understates things a good bit.
Which brings us to a couple of key data points this morning, the first of which is the Employment Situation report, or “empsit” for short…
Here’s the gist of it from the Labor Department press release:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 164,000 in April, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, health care, and mining.
Household Survey Data
In April, the unemployment rate edged down to 3.9 percent, following 6 months at 4.1percent. The number of unemployed persons, at 6.3 million, also edged down over the month.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult women decreased to 3.5 percent in April. The jobless rates for adult men (3.7 percent), teenagers (12.9 percent), Whites (3.6 percent), Blacks (6.6 percent), Asians (2.8 percent), and Hispanics (4.8 percent) showed little or no change over the month.
Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs declined by 188,000 in April to 3.0 million.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.3 million in April and accounted for 20.0 percent of the unemployed. Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed was down by 340,000.
Is it a good report? In my opinion NO!
For one, the labor force declined by 236,000. Where did they go? That distills down to fewer people to load with taxes.
What’s more, the total number of people employed was up a mere 3,000 people for the month. That plain sucks.
Worst of all: 260,000 jobs were estimated into existence in the CES Birth/Death modeling. The CES birth-death model also laid a goose-egg for manufacturing jobs.
Not only that, but in the main data tables here, you’ll see manufacturing is down 99,000 jobs from last year!
A quick look at the futures after all this? Down 45 points, or so. We expect it to go lower though, unless optimists are in charge and thinking “See how much room we have to improve?”
Most people don’t know how to read the report…but when the grown ups get to work, the kids may learn a thing of four.
On a related labor note: Small Business Hiring Growth Pauses in April, According to CBIZ Small Business Employment Index. How many data points for a trend?
And the trade war concept is still alive. “As Trump’s tariffs bite, small U.S. manufacturers begin to tap the brakes.”
Bezos Goes After Trump
Amazon boss Jeff Bezos owns the Washington Post these days. With a president who has bashed Amazon a number of times, suggesting post office subsidizes shipping, the Post has been very closely watching Trump.
Take for example, this mornings “We filed a complaint about Trump’s ethics. Giuliani made it possible.”
To be sure, it sounds a little “holier than thou” but if nothing else, it will keep the media pot stirred up and continue to uselessly focus on Trumpian escapades in days long past.
Meanwhile, Trump blasts NBC over botched Cohen report: ‘wrong again!’ but most all of the NE/liberal media has been – and for more than a year…
Ever wonder what a similarly-scaled probe of the Clinton’s would have found by now? We sure do.
Meanwhile, Trump may not be Bezos enemy for long: Alibaba quarterly revenue rises 61 percent.
Trump will be keynoting the NRA convention – a move sure to make liberals with gun-grabbing agendas even nuttier. And from there? On to knives and then forks…there’s no end to power-crazed people trying to run your life, whether you want ’em to, or not. Fortunately, we have a Constitution though as simple as it is to read, the Supreme Court has gotten it wrong at times.
Meanwhile, as China trade talks continue “The U.S. Has Warned China Over ‘Deploying Missiles’ in the South China Sea.” Also, not kind of them to point lasers at US aircraft in the Middle East.
Drought to Drive Food Up?
My friend Robin Landry has a worthwhile saying. “What turns a recession into a Depression is drought…”
Judging by how cyclical advances are swinging toward cyclical declines, we’re keeping a nervous eye on the National Drought Monitor:
Not shown on this map is the extreme drought going on in Southeast Alaska. Good news for Hawaii…no drought in the Islands.
But they’ve got a volcano popping off… Mount Kilauea: Hawaii emergency declared over volcano eruption…so where’s paradise?
(Stand-by – it’s my consigliere – calling from Columbus, Ohio, telling me it’s in Kentucky, Ohio, and Indiana. I told him that property taxes are too high in Ohio but Kentucky is nice…so back to writing…)
We hope with reports like Hawaii volcano eruption sends lava into residential area, prompting evacuations that our Hawaiian readers are OK (send a picture!)
And drought related? Violent dust storms kill more than 100 in India.
All looks like thinner food supplies and higher prices in the wings to us.
Check Your Calendar
This is a toughie: Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway bought 75 million more Apple shares in first quarter.. and Berkshire meets up in Omaha tomorrow.
OR, skip Nebraska and head for Kentucky instead: The Kentucky Derby and Cinco de Mayo Are Merging.
Off to play serious day-trader. As always it will come down to “Are yah feeling lucky, punk?” when the “Hold over the weekend?” question rolls around.
See you tomorrow or Monday…don’t drink and drive tomorrow (Cinco) OR EVER.