Jobs Report and the Happy Bear Dance

I have been looking for the “keys to the bank” for a long time and am pleased to report that while I haven’t found the keys, our latest rule sets seem to be a large enough hammer that we can pull off the occasional “smash and grab” as we’ve done this week.

We’ll go through the mechanics of it in Peoplenomics tomorrow, but to say I’m happy understates things a good bit.

Which brings us to a couple of key data points this morning, the first of which is the Employment Situation report, or “empsit” for short…

(Continues below)


Here’s the gist of it from the Labor Department press release:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 164,000 in April, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, health care, and mining.

Household Survey Data

In April, the unemployment rate edged down to 3.9 percent, following 6 months at 4.1percent. The number of unemployed persons, at 6.3 million, also edged down over the month.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult women decreased to 3.5 percent in April. The jobless rates for adult men (3.7 percent), teenagers (12.9 percent), Whites (3.6 percent), Blacks (6.6 percent), Asians (2.8 percent), and Hispanics (4.8 percent) showed little or no change over the month.

Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs declined by 188,000 in April to 3.0 million.

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.3 million in April and accounted for 20.0 percent of the unemployed. Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed was down by 340,000.

Is it a good report?  In my opinion NO!

For one, the labor force declined by 236,000.  Where did they go?  That distills down to fewer people to load with taxes.

What’s more, the total number of people employed was up a mere 3,000 people for the month.  That plain sucks.

Worst of all:  260,000 jobs were estimated into existence in the CES Birth/Death modeling. The CES birth-death model also laid a goose-egg for manufacturing jobs.

Not only that, but in the main data tables here, you’ll see manufacturing is down 99,000 jobs from last year!

A quick look at the futures after all this? Down 45 points, or so.  We expect it to go lower though, unless optimists are in charge and thinking “See how much room we have to improve?

Most people don’t know how to read the report…but when the grown ups get to work, the kids may learn a thing of four.

On a related labor note: Small Business Hiring Growth Pauses in April, According to CBIZ Small Business Employment Index.  How many data points for a trend?

And the trade war concept is still alive.  “As Trump’s tariffs bite, small U.S. manufacturers begin to tap the brakes.”

Bezos Goes After Trump

Amazon boss Jeff Bezos owns the Washington Post these days.  With a president who has bashed Amazon a number of times, suggesting post office subsidizes shipping, the Post has been very closely watching Trump.

Take for example, this mornings “We filed a complaint about Trump’s ethics. Giuliani made it possible.

To be sure, it sounds a little “holier than thou” but if nothing else, it will keep the media pot stirred up and continue to uselessly focus on Trumpian escapades in days long past.

Meanwhile, Trump blasts NBC over botched Cohen report: ‘wrong again!’ but most all of the NE/liberal media has been – and for more than a year…

Ever wonder what a similarly-scaled probe of the Clinton’s would have found by now?  We sure do.

Meanwhile, Trump may not be Bezos enemy for long: Alibaba quarterly revenue rises 61 percent.

Trump will be keynoting the NRA convention – a move sure to make liberals with gun-grabbing agendas even nuttier.  And from there? On to knives and then forks…there’s no end to power-crazed people trying to run your life, whether you want ’em to, or not. Fortunately, we have a Constitution though as simple as it is to read, the Supreme Court has gotten it wrong at times.

Meanwhile, as China trade talks continue “The U.S. Has Warned China Over ‘Deploying Missiles’ in the South China Sea.”  Also, not kind of them to point lasers at US aircraft in the Middle East.

Drought to Drive Food Up?

My friend Robin Landry has a worthwhile saying.  “What turns a recession into a Depression is drought…

Judging by how cyclical advances are swinging toward cyclical declines, we’re keeping a nervous eye on the National Drought Monitor:

Not shown on this map is the extreme drought going on in Southeast Alaska.  Good news for Hawaii…no drought in the Islands.

But they’ve got a volcano popping off… Mount Kilauea: Hawaii emergency declared over volcano eruption…so where’s paradise?

(Stand-by – it’s my consigliere – calling from Columbus, Ohio, telling me it’s in Kentucky, Ohio, and Indiana.  I told him that property taxes are too high in Ohio but Kentucky is nice…so back to writing…)

We hope with reports like Hawaii volcano eruption sends lava into residential area, prompting evacuations that our Hawaiian readers are OK (send a picture!)

And drought related? Violent dust storms kill more than 100 in India.

All looks like thinner food supplies and higher prices in the wings to us.

Check Your Calendar

This is a toughie:  Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway bought 75 million more Apple shares in first quarter.. and Berkshire meets up in Omaha tomorrow.

OR, skip Nebraska and head for Kentucky instead: The Kentucky Derby and Cinco de Mayo Are Merging.

Off to play serious day-trader.  As always it will come down to “Are yah feeling lucky, punk?”  when the “Hold over the weekend?” question rolls around.

See you tomorrow or Monday…don’t drink and drive tomorrow (Cinco) OR EVER.

52 thoughts on “Jobs Report and the Happy Bear Dance”

  1. George, with ETF 3X, isn’t hold over the week extremely risky, not recommended & suspect to the dreaded down gap on the opening, which you previously mention you fear.

    Everything I read says don’t hold a 3X ETF over the weekend. Many say sell by the end of the day.

    • Or nail, or ink pen…

      The Brits are going to be, by God, safe, if NHS has to wrap them in bubble pak and seal each one into its own individual padded ceramic room, upon birth.

  2. There are 75,000,000 Baby Boomers that will retire over the next 10 years (even though not all of them were employed outside the home). Just assuming that half were in the labor force, that comes to 3,750,000 a year, or 312,500 a month that will be retiring each month over the next ten years. Thus, more people than ever will NOT be in the labor force. And even if job creation is zero, there should be openings for over 300,000 positions every month. That will make employment numbers look terrific, even if not a single new job is created.

  3. Does anyone here really believe unemployment is actually 3.9%? I sure don’t! 23% maybe.

    • This is what I hate about politics. Trump was ostracizing the unemployment stats when Obama was president and now he is extolling their value! Nothing has changed. They have always been cooked stats. Now more than ever they have become unbelievable stats, due to a change in administrations.

    • No.. The funny thing about stats.. Years ago one of my many hats was working overnight cashier at a 7/11 type store. The store manager had a brilliant idea.. Let the night clerk do the daily count and books at 2:30 or 3 am..
      That was ME.. When would you get thumped over the head.. Well I wasn’t for this and opposed it. He made sure I knew that it was now my job..
      The first night I did them..every dime was there..took him three days to figure out the books.. Needless to say.. I didn’t have to do the daily count and books any more..
      The thing is they can make the stats look anyway they want.
      These guys aren’t stupid just look how they have gained control of everything

    • Of course not.

      One of the few “things Trump” which irritates me is he did not throw out the four “fantasy” sets of books set up under Reagan, Clinton, GW, and Obama, respectively, so folks outside the Fed could know the actual picture of domestic employment and finances. I understand why he didn’t (if unemployment suddenly goes to 20%, two months into his term, all the low-information Americans, roughly 98% of us BTW, will see is the horrendous spike, not the return to honest bookkeeping.)

      That said, by running with Obama’s numbers, the running totals and bottom line are at least useful as a comparison to where we were 9 years, or 2 years ago. Also remember, all this numbers BS keeps John Williams employed…

      • He couldn’t toss the real records out in the open.
        Everything would have imploded instantly.

  4. George to add to your question; “Ever wonder what a similarly-scaled probe of the Clinton’s would have found by now?” and change the name to “OBAMA”and then we sit and watch what would crawl out of sealed college records.

    • I am all for transparency and would have loved to see Obama’s sealed college records…nobody is above the will of the people. But if you can make that statement, then I think we equally deserve to see Trumps tax returns. Every President but him has done so.

      • Ray what would you say if Trump released his returns and Hillary refused to release hers?

        BTW where is everything that republicans demand Obama release – Trump’s long form birth certificate? A complete copy of his DoD file? A complete copy of his academic records? A complete copy of his medical records? A complete copy of any loan application he ever made?

      • I’d say he was a fool, since at the time of the election, they were under IRS subpoena. I don’t care about paperwork, nor do I care what a person says. I care about what they do (or if in a legislative body, how they vote.) Words are cheap, documents can be fixed — actions count…

        Oh, and my last post was made tongue in-cheek, since we didn’t have an income tax until 1913. ;-)

    • I’ll be candid here.. I think I would be terrified of what they would find if the did an investigation probe. Obviously anyone with any reasoning abilities at all can see just how much power that is wielded and the depth that would be gone to to keep that information from public eyes

  5. Of all the stupid places to put a subdivision… or home. Right on the top of the East Rift zone ridge of the volcano, among old eruption craters. Lava zone 1, where the ground could (and DID!) crack open and erupt at any time. You cannot get homeowners insurance in this area, so homeowners will suffer a total loss.

    I’m about 5 miles north of the eruption, on the relatively safe north side of the rift ridge. Sulfur fumes are my biggest worry depending on the winds now. The entire south shore of the volcano is a historically dangerous area and no way I would live there.

    Here’s the USGS pictures and chronology site:

  6. Bad news for the Asia Pacific markets. Expect a downturn. Cramer said forget YUM China & stay with Yum. Pizza is the major culprut. Although good earnings, YUMC is not getting the growth expected.

  7. Send us your Poor, Send us your Diseased, send us your Drug Dealers, send us your totally ignorant. We will make them all Citizens and welfare recipient’s they will dwell in the land of plenty forever. It will be interesting in the age of Robotics replacing workers while increasing the population.

  8. Dude,

    Seriously? Your Consigliere is not in Columbus, S.C.? Thoughts of tossing horseshoes out near Lexington could well be profitable, but dropping a few bucks on the Greyhounds heading north on the I-71 could get local tongues wagging about the tale of two dons. Fasten your seatbelts for the ride.

    Now long before these stormy times, a man of comic book lore found more profitable calling with what they wore. Success apparently bore a need for family help. After many moons, an adopted son swam against currents in vivid manner to coastal spawning grounds.

    Film buffs may await release of “Daniel is a Woman”? Bibliophile Eliot Ness types may choose to leaf through a former director’s chasing of The Family through The City before he became a household name?

    ‘Shrooms away! Call Mulder!

    We now return you to The Matrix. Please enjoy regularly scheduled programming…

    “…Blue Pill, Stat! Blue Pill, Stat!”

  9. This message is for Andy who wants to get ahead everybody else here has lots of money so Andy this message is for you.
    Invest in digibyte it’s selling for less than $0.05 now in January and February of 2019 it’ll be worth $900 which means it’ll go up / 18500 * what it’s worth now.

    $55 will net you $1000000.

    And for the rest of y’all old cows like me just sit back and enjoy your lifestyle while Andy gets rich.

    May all beings be lovingly for feels so be it.
    Even me.

  10. I guess it’s time for urbansurvival to expand a little bit on its reader comments expanded up to 21 maybe it’ll go to George’s age coming up 70 comments

  11. If you would have bought Litecoin April 6th $114.

    And sold it today for 180.

    Not bad for one month

    About 60% for one month not bad even if for a year that’s still pretty good.

    But to make 18500 % wow only takes 9 months to do it.

    The main thing is how would you know it’s going to do that that’s where beforefinder comes in.

    Find it before it happens that’s what beforefinders all about.

  12. Do you realize all that money that was going to be spent for World War 3 is instead going to be spent on you and me

  13. Berkshire made a bad move because Apple and Google Android are going downhill there’s a new phone lb coming out on the market next year so yep watch Berkshire stock go down hill long with Apple and Google Android

    • The name is not known yet but supposed to come out in 2019 .

      But the logo it has blue lines and then has something like an arrow or rocket going up at an angle which emphasizes this new technology and this will come from either Europe or United States and the whole background of why it’ll put the others to shame is because of the new chip technology.

      Apple and Android will stocks will be going down while this will be going up now weather Buffett sells and then buys into this we don’t know yet.

      • All the big electronic players have the technology to go way into the future but they aren’t allowed to do that but with Trump exposing all of these corporations that are hiding the future,
        Apple will come back out and surpass this new Corporation in years to pass.

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