That Exponential Trend we were talking about in the Peoplenomics report Wednesday is coming along: Sometimes we just get lucky, lol. Dow futures were down 140 early and the S&P was down 17 and change.
All this as the NY Times biz section reports Signs the Economy Might Be Overheating. Like the Fed hiding money-printing data from we-the-tax-chattel isn’t convincing, enough? Help me here..
If Samuelson (et al) are right about randomness in markets, any tool to offer “tips to gamblers” gets useful. Exponential or otherwise. The longer I “invest” the clearer the “gambling” aspect of markets becomes. With a heavy dose of made-up money (phony fiat inflation) in there, too.
Imagine! A Casino run by a counterfeiting ring, yes sir.
Data Driving: Jobs Report
Just our from Labor are the week’s first-time unemployment claims. We will highlight the non-seasonally adjusted (somewhat more honest in our view) numbers here which are better than expected:
Corporate Profits: Productivity Craters
Also out from Labor – and in answer to the “How rich can the One Percenters get with free money and a large unemployed labor pool to pick and choose from – we have a corporate profits report:
Private nonfarm business sector multifactor productivity decreased 1.7 percent in 2020, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
This 2020 decrease reflects a 4.2-percent decrease in output and a 2.5-percent decrease in the combined inputs of capital and labor. Capital services grew by 2.4 percent and labor input–which is the combined effect of hours worked and labor composition–decreased by 5.2 percent.
Multifactor productivity (MFP) is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of combined units of labor input and capital services. Multifactor productivity annual measures differ from BLS quarterly labor productivity (output per hour worked) measures because the former also includes the influences of capital services and shifts in the composition of workers. Measures for the most recent year of this release are preliminary estimates.”
Private business sector multifactor productivity also decreased 1.7 percent in 2020, as output decreased 4.1 percent and combined inputs decreased 2.4 percent.
Not sick of numbers yet? Maalox up because there’s also…
GDP (Like fudge?)
One of the standard metrics of economic health is the gross domestic product of the U.S. The idea being that if GDP is up, we are doing (relatively) better.
Before we lay this on you, though, a heaping tablespoon of Economic Reality. Real GDP is just another dollarized economic measure with lots of lag-time to hide reality. It doesn’t reference runaway printing.
What I mean by that it there is only a passing relationship to the quantity of goods made.
Take the last year, for example: We know there are ~10-million people less working. We also know M2 is up 26% and M1 has doubled. (The Fed is hiding the actual because they’re scared shitless people will figure out that with $28 trillion in debt and GDP (on a units basis) likely under $20 trillion, people will figure out OUR MONEY’S ON FIRE. Which is what paper does, of course.
We might even offer some meds as Powell praises economic recovery and sees Fed pulling back help after ‘substantial’ progress. Lemme see: output down, GDP sold as UP…uh huh…pass the pipe?
So, understanding that with 26% more money, dollarized GDP has to go up 25% to breakeven is critical. (It’s slightly more complicated, but I’m being kind not mentioning the doubling in M1 which is like a government-sponsored Wesson Oil party…they are afraid to publish current data…)
Bottom line: The reports this morning are in conflict: Productivity has cratered along with output, yet, GDP is (allegedly) up (in the same period which is Biblical-level miracle shit) R U seeing how this is a grab your ankles deal? No? A bit slow today, are we?
[I keep thinking the makers of Astro-Glide should issue a collectible April Fools edition each year labeled “Government.” Gover-Glide would work, too…]
A “Borderline President?” Kamala to the border photo-opping as the Rio Grande Valley is being over run. We ought to send troops, not the Lady in Waiting.
Speaking of Spewing: Iceland’s Volcanic Eruption Could Be A Long Hauler.
Home Depot Data Breach: Cards stolen in Home Depot breach pop up online, reports CBS. More than 50-million customers involved.
Waiting to Beam Up: William Shatner reflects on turning 90 and celebrating with ‘Star Trek’ fans.
For Your Action List
Great interview on WOAI (San Antonio) with Joe Pags last night. He had Dr. Carol Swain of “Be the People News” on. Give a listen here. Apparently, being Black is no protection from democrat-sponsoring social media censorship which blocked a recent video chat by Dr. Swain on FB (because she calls out dems on being big-time KKK supporters in the past…)
Check your KI (potassium iodide) supplies. One of our readers reported (see comments) on possible shortages. We will touch base with Shane at http://ki4u.com and see what gives.
Help for Cheap Tools: I am printing off the first proto this morning of a 5/8ths inch rail track for some of our power tools. Right after this parts box finishes printing. You know, a lot of neat tools are on the used market, but don’t use the older-style (wider) 3/4-inch grooves. We may print up and sell some of the thinner ones that work with some of the Sears, Ryobi, Tool-Kraft, Harbor Freight and other saws and shapers…
Don’t forget next week is a semi-holiday (Good Friday) for markets. Easter a week from this Sunday which makes Sunday this weekend Palm Sunday…
Top Easter meals? Food Network has all kinds of cooking ideas. We’ll probably roll with a honey-ham, spiral cut, and have scalloped potatoes and ham for life thereafter.
Stimulus Scams: Gotten several emails here asking for all kinds of Confirmation of Banking info related to stimulus checks. If ANYTHING comes in as an email wanting ANY personal information, be suspect and don’t email, don’t call…
ATR (Around the Ranch)
Best News of All: Elaine got the green light from her “hip” doctor to put full weight on her right hip, installed in early February. She’s on the heavy PT track now to get ready for the next one early this summer. Song on point here…
Off to the 3D printer projects...scattered T-storms in the South today and keep an ear open and the NOAA monitor on…that time of the year, now. Tornado weather.
Couldn’t help but notice that the lawn is sprouting (along with things in the greenhouse: Looks like (why are we not surprised?) April Fools day with be the first drive-through with the mower this year. Like Pappy used to say to people with putting green lawns: “You put how much money in fertilizer and weed killer so you can mow more often???”
Write when you get rich,