A day off (Good Friday) for some, but you wouldn’t know it around here.
The short answer is “Not as many as last year.” The longer answer is wrapped up in the Labor Department monthly job report for March just out:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 916,000 in March, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Job growth was widespread in March, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, public and private education, and construction.”
As you know, there are two things we look at: Number of people working is the big one. 150,848,000 people working last month. Not quite five million fewer than in March 2020 (155,536,000).
That screams to us that we are still nowhere near pre-pandemic employment levels. And yet, the shock market is nearly at all-time highs.
What’s at work is the “magic of liquidity” – your taxpayer backed promise to keep paying taxes so government can buy up bonds if needed (and whatever else) to save the One Percenters from an honest market correction.
The second thing we consider is the monthly CES Birth-Death Model. Short for “Current Employment Situation.” This is the report for the Labor Department that “estimates” jobs into existence (or out of). Looks like this and please note the yellow highlighted area:
One million three-hundred-twenty-three-thousand ‘ESTIMATED’ to have grown. Knee slapper? Well, unboxing some of the lockdowns are going to help. But a million-three? ViceGrips to the forearm, Stat!
So there you have it: How many new jobs? None.
How many were “made up?” All of ’em plus 407,000 more for good measure. Whee! Ain’t estimation fun???
Still No All-Time High
The Mainstream Media would have us all believing that Savior Joe has solved Covid and reversed the Evil Trump’s doings. Yet, on closer inspection of both, we are skeptical.
The MSM way of reporting All-Time highs is to take a single measure (like the Dow Jones Industrials or the S&P 500 – and report that as Gospel. Yet, around here in the Outback, it occurred to us (years ago, in 2000 in fact) that you can’t just ignore the Tech Sector because the numbers might be bad.
Like table stakes poker: It’s the whole “money in play” that matters, not just the holdings of the present two top players in a foursome. So, yeah, we’re pretty interested in the total handle of the Wall Street Casino; not blue chips or the biggest. Tech matters! As anyone in Silly Con Valley will attest.
Which gets us to the Aggregate Index close Thursday: 36,299.03
Remember back on Feb. 12, the same Aggregate closed at 363,65.73. Sure, we’re close. But, Zeus the Cat isn’t handing out cigars, yet.
In fact, the Cat points out we MAY still have some upside left in this market, since the green “trading box” hasn’t completed a wave count yet:
Wait…are we kissing the bottom side of a trend channel?
Does Inflation Matter?
The reason for the all-time highs in the market has nothing to do with 100-million people being jabbed. Or some kind of “national mental health return” and social healing upon Trump leaving. Nor, does it have anything to do with the Biden Open Borders scheme which has resulted in a flood of human’s coming in as illegal aliens.
To dimocrat lawmakers behind Razor Wire Central (formerly the American Capitol Hill) the incoming as economic growth. You see, while the once majority of this country (around 85% in the 1950s) is being watered down (to around 61% now, less than 50% shortly), that means low economic growth.
What to do? Same thing the megalomaniacal European Union did? Throw open the doors and let’s create Synthetic Growth. More cops. More social workers. More bureaucrats. More
drug sales political contributions… And everyone coming in is “in for the jab” without asking questions.
Questions like “Is this a safe vaccine?” (We don’t know for certain). “Have clinical trials been completed?” (No, but absent trials, you can’t sue anyone because you were “informed” and your arm is your consent.)
In short, the vax plans are close enough to sketchy that we wonder what’s really afoot. How could 15-million doses of the “safer” (conventional technology) vaccine just be “goofed up” by a J&J supplier this week? Just too damn strange a coincidence.
The widely proclaimed view is that “U.S. enters a fourth wave as variants drive more coronavirus cases.” But sure looks to us like Wave 1 was 2020 and now we’re in Wave II. Refer to the wave-lengths of the Spanish flu (1919) for guidance in the sick science of wave-counting.
Could it be that WW III is underway? Could the plannedemic be the opening shot?
Nostradamus & WW III – Which Easter?
If you have Amazon Audibles, you might want to flip over and take a listen to “Lt. Gen. Tom McInerney: World War III has started.” Hat-tip to the Two Mikes for asking question the lame-ass mainstream media is incapable of asking. (Due to the choke collars of corporate control of newsrooms, but that’s another discussion for another time.
Since as small-time investors, we like to have a good grasp of the future (because the future will shape prices when comes time to sell an asset, right?) we have been huge fans of G.A. Stewart’s website. He’s probably the world expert right now on the practical application of Nostradamus cryptic predictions of the future.
Problem is: They are fitting today to a tee.
After you’ve taken the time to read Stu’s pieces “Easter Bunnies and Mad Men” along with “Russia Rolls Out the Nukes” you’ll understand the question raised by my consigliere. We were chatting mid-week about when might be good to “hit the silk” if Nostradamus has a quarter of a major country being smoked.
“The problem I see,” he explained “Is that while Nostradamus talks about war beginning at Easter, we really don’t know which one. The Christian Easter is this weekend. But the Orthodox Easter comes May 2….so which one sees war?
There are sound reasons for the Second Easter to be given serious weight because it’s not until late April or early May that the ground is hard enough after the winter wet season, to support heavy arms movement in Ukraine…”
That was a damn good point: But, on the other side of the world, remember that China would likely use the eventuality of a shooting war in Ukraine to make its move on Taiwan…which would leave the U.S. in a strategic supply-chain box. Already tightened by what we expect are chip diversions to build fleets of drones as a new way to neutralize American air power.
Which Easter, then, is Nostradamus writing about. A flipped the question back to Stu:
“That’s a tough one. In his metaphor of the Great Sterile Dame, (the Christian Church) and her four children: the First Son is the Catholic Church, the Second Son is the Orthodox Church, the Third Son is the Protestant Church, and the Daughter is the Church of England.
Since the fighting has already begun in Ukraine, I’m thinking we could see something big in the next few days.
Hal Turner was reporting May 2, and this link was posting Summer:
Considering the Nostradamus Butterfly Effect, I think the serious stuff is going to start this week.”
The Toes of Government
So there’s a case for this weekend and there’s a case for the first weekend in May. For now, we’re watching reports coming in. We have a lot of additional information from sources. But, we would caution any “newbies” in the reporting trade of the FCC’s prohibitions on disclosure of monitored radio traffic (which would include ADS-B pings).
One could make out a case where – in the aftermath of a quick WW III – retributions by officialdom against those not cognizant of government’s concerns. Which begin on the edge of “force protection” and run off all the way to “sedition and treasonous acts.”
Governments have “sensitive feet” and they sometimes over-react to people who step on their toes.
Being ever the optimist, we still wear the “Serious Prepper” hat. Which means we are working on last-minute comms plans and the like, so the Ure clan knows the gathering details here.
There could come a point when either Europe (driven by egotistical bunglers) makes a strike to reclaim eastern Ukraine. Or, where Russia (driven by the Catherine the Great border restoration team) makes the first move.
China is then likely ready to pounce on Taiwan. So, when we see stories like At Least 51 Dead As Taiwan Train Derails In Tunnel we have to ask “Accident or sabotage?”
Regardless of how the “American Air Bridge” has been going to Ukraine (well over six-months now), both sides didn’t move all that “kill people and break things” hardware into close proximity to just let it rust in place.
Laughably, America is hobbled by a president stuck in older mindsets – Remember, Biden heard the tales growing up of how we won WW II fighting on two fronts. Now, back out chips from Taiwan, and the gas (from Russia) going off in Europe, and wanna get back to us?
Who Us? Worried?
Not really. Death, when it comes is a local event. Therefore, the wise person works on making and preserving their own “best local.”
For now, our best moves are:
- Be healthy and active
- Be Liquid
- Have prepping goods topped off
- Have the family plan ready to send
- Keep working on the garden
And this, my friend, gets us nearly to the end of this morning’s exposition. A few…
How much value will cryptos have if the web is taken out? Doesn’t matter, apparently: Cryptos Near $2 Trillion Market Cap As Bitcoin, Ethereum Surge Above Key Levels.
In advance of attacking America 22 states fight California gun restrictions, urge Ninth Circuit to rule against large-capacity magazine ban. We’d be so much easier for a foreign enemy to pick-off if we just didn’t have guns, and especially ones with adequate semi-automatic capabilities, right? So let’s do stupid…
Kaepernick fever breaking: SF Giants’ Mike Yastrzemski has no plans to kneel during national anthem this season” reports Fox.
Don’t hold your breath for it to really break.
Re-segregaation, as we have told you many times, is the “woke” folk’s idea of a workable Business Model. Everyone wants “specialness.” And that’s just jingoism for idiots. Everyone wants everyone else’s money.
OK, mount ’em up. Mr. Mower is leaving the building.
Write when you get rich,