Jobs Data, Easter War, and STILL No All-Time High

A day off (Good Friday) for some, but you wouldn’t know it around here.

Who’s Working?

The short answer is “Not as many as last year.”  The longer answer is wrapped up in the Labor Department monthly job report for March just out:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 916,000 in March, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Job growth was widespread in March, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, public and private education, and construction.”

As you know, there are two things we look at:  Number of people working is the big one.  150,848,000 people working last month.  Not quite five million fewer than in March 2020 (155,536,000).

That screams to us that we are still nowhere near pre-pandemic employment levels.  And yet, the shock market is nearly at all-time highs.

What’s at work is the “magic of liquidity” – your taxpayer backed promise to keep paying taxes so government can buy up bonds if needed (and whatever else) to save the One Percenters from an honest market correction.

The second thing we consider is the monthly CES Birth-Death Model.  Short for “Current Employment Situation.”  This is the report for the Labor Department that “estimates” jobs into existence (or out of).  Looks like this and please note the yellow highlighted area:

One million three-hundred-twenty-three-thousand ‘ESTIMATED’ to have grown.  Knee slapper?  Well, unboxing some of the lockdowns are going to help.  But a million-three?  ViceGrips to the forearm, Stat!

So there you have it:  How many new jobs?     None. 

How many were “made up?”  All of ’em plus 407,000 more for good measure.  Whee!  Ain’t estimation fun???

Still No All-Time High

The Mainstream Media would have us all believing that Savior Joe has solved Covid and reversed the Evil Trump’s doings.  Yet, on closer inspection of both, we are skeptical.

The MSM way of reporting All-Time highs is to take a single measure (like the Dow Jones Industrials or the S&P 500 – and report that as Gospel.  Yet, around here in the Outback, it occurred to us (years ago, in 2000 in fact) that you can’t just ignore the Tech Sector because the numbers might be bad.

Like table stakes poker:  It’s the whole “money in play” that matters, not just the holdings of the present two top players in a foursome.  So, yeah, we’re pretty interested in the total handle  of the Wall Street Casino; not blue chips or the biggest.  Tech matters! As anyone in Silly Con Valley will attest.

Which gets us to the Aggregate Index close Thursday:  36,299.03  

Remember back on Feb. 12, the same Aggregate closed at 363,65.73.  Sure, we’re close.  But, Zeus the Cat isn’t handing out cigars, yet.

In fact, the Cat points out we MAY still have some upside left in this market, since the green “trading box” hasn’t completed a wave count yet:

Aggregate Index Double Top?

Wait…are we kissing the bottom side of a trend channel?

Does Inflation Matter?

The reason for the all-time highs in the market has nothing to do with 100-million people being jabbed.  Or some kind of “national mental health return” and social healing upon Trump leaving.  Nor, does it have anything to do with the Biden  Open Borders scheme which has resulted in a flood of human’s coming in as illegal aliens.

Nope. 

To dimocrat lawmakers behind Razor Wire Central (formerly the American Capitol Hill) the incoming as economic growth.  You see, while the once majority of this country (around 85% in the 1950s) is being watered down (to around 61% now, less than 50% shortly), that means low economic growth.

What to do?  Same thing the megalomaniacal European Union did?  Throw open the doors and let’s create Synthetic Growth.  More cops.  More social workers.  More bureaucrats.  More drug sales  political contributions… And everyone coming in is “in for the jab” without asking questions.

Questions like “Is this a safe vaccine?”  (We don’t know for certain).  “Have clinical trials been completed?”  (No, but absent trials, you can’t sue anyone because you were “informed” and your arm is your consent.)

In short, the vax plans are close enough to sketchy that we wonder what’s really afoot.  How could 15-million doses of the “safer” (conventional technology) vaccine just be “goofed up” by a J&J supplier this week?  Just too damn strange a coincidence.

The widely proclaimed view is that “U.S. enters a fourth wave as variants drive more coronavirus cases.”  But sure looks to us like Wave 1 was 2020 and now we’re in Wave II.  Refer to the wave-lengths of the Spanish flu (1919) for guidance in the sick science of wave-counting.

Could it be that WW III is underway?  Could the plannedemic be the opening shot?

Nostradamus & WW III – Which Easter?

If you have Amazon Audibles, you might want to flip over and take a listen to “Lt. Gen. Tom McInerney: World War III has started.”  Hat-tip to the Two Mikes for asking question the lame-ass mainstream media is incapable of asking.  (Due to the choke collars of corporate control of newsrooms, but that’s another discussion for another time.

What Matters Right Now!  Russian military hardware is pouring into the region east of Ukraine and there are legit fears that a war could light-off any old time.

Since as small-time investors, we like to have a good grasp of the future (because the future will shape prices when comes time to sell an asset, right?) we have been huge fans of G.A. Stewart’s website.  He’s probably the world expert right now on the practical application of Nostradamus cryptic predictions of the future.

Problem is:  They are fitting today to a tee.

After you’ve taken the time to read Stu’s pieces “Easter Bunnies and Mad Men” along with “Russia Rolls Out the Nukes” you’ll understand the question raised by my consigliere.  We were chatting mid-week about when might be good to “hit the silk” if Nostradamus has a quarter of a major country being smoked.

The problem I see,” he explained “Is that while Nostradamus talks about war  beginning at Easter, we really don’t know which one.  The Christian Easter is this weekend.  But the Orthodox Easter comes May 2….so which one sees war?

There are sound reasons for the Second Easter to be given serious weight because it’s not until late April or early May that the ground is hard enough after the winter wet season, to support heavy arms movement in Ukraine…”

That was a damn good point:  But, on the other side of the world, remember that China would likely use the eventuality of a shooting war in Ukraine to make its move on Taiwan…which would leave the U.S. in a strategic supply-chain box.  Already tightened by what we expect are chip diversions to build fleets of drones as a new way to neutralize American air power.

Which Easter, then, is Nostradamus writing about.  A flipped the question back to Stu:

“That’s a tough one. In his metaphor of the Great Sterile Dame, (the Christian Church) and her four children: the First Son is the Catholic Church, the Second Son is the Orthodox Church, the Third Son is the Protestant Church, and the Daughter is the Church of England.

So, he was definitely aware of the Christian churches and the split in religious calendars.

Since the fighting has already begun in Ukraine, I’m thinking we could see something big in the next few days.

Hal Turner was reporting May 2, and this link was posting Summer:

Considering the Nostradamus Butterfly Effect, I think the serious stuff is going to start this week.”

The Toes of Government

So there’s a case for this weekend and there’s a case for the first weekend in May.  For now, we’re watching reports coming in.  We have a lot of additional information from sources.  But, we would caution any “newbies” in the reporting trade of the FCC’s prohibitions on disclosure of monitored radio traffic (which would include ADS-B pings).

One could make out a case where – in the aftermath of a quick WW III – retributions by officialdom against those not cognizant of government’s concerns.  Which begin on the edge of “force protection” and run off all the way to “sedition and treasonous acts.”

Governments have “sensitive feet” and they sometimes over-react to people who step on their toes.

Being ever the optimist, we still wear the “Serious Prepper” hat.  Which means we are working on last-minute comms plans and the like, so the Ure clan knows the gathering details here.

There could come a point when either Europe (driven by egotistical bunglers) makes a strike to reclaim eastern Ukraine.  Or, where Russia (driven by  the Catherine the Great border restoration team) makes the first move.

China is then likely ready to pounce on Taiwan.  So, when we see stories like At Least 51 Dead As Taiwan Train Derails In Tunnel we have to ask “Accident or sabotage?”

Regardless of how the “American Air Bridge” has been going to Ukraine (well over six-months now), both sides didn’t move all that “kill people and break things” hardware into close proximity to just let it rust in place.

Laughably, America is hobbled by a president stuck in older mindsets – Remember, Biden heard the tales growing up of how we won WW II fighting on two fronts.  Now, back out chips from Taiwan, and the gas (from Russia) going off in Europe, and wanna get back to us?

Who Us?  Worried?

Not really.  Death, when it comes is a local event.  Therefore, the wise person works on making and preserving their own “best local.”

For now, our best moves are:

  1. Watch
  2. Be healthy and active
  3. Be Liquid
  4. Have prepping goods topped off
  5. Have the family plan ready to send
  6. Keep working on the garden

And this, my friend, gets us nearly to the end of this morning’s exposition.  A few…

Short Takes

How much value will cryptos have if the web is taken out?  Doesn’t matter, apparently:  Cryptos Near $2 Trillion Market Cap As Bitcoin, Ethereum Surge Above Key Levels.

In advance of attacking America 22 states fight California gun restrictions, urge Ninth Circuit to rule against large-capacity magazine ban.  We’d be so much easier for a foreign enemy to pick-off if we just didn’t have guns, and especially ones with adequate semi-automatic capabilities, right?  So let’s do stupid…

Kaepernick fever breaking:  SF Giants’ Mike Yastrzemski has no plans to kneel during national anthem this season” reports Fox.

Don’t hold your breath for it to really break.

Re-segregaation, as we have told you many times, is the “woke” folk’s idea of a workable Business Model.  Everyone wants “specialness.” And that’s just jingoism for idiots.  Everyone wants everyone else’s money.

OK, mount ’em up.  Mr. Mower is leaving the building.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

35 thoughts on “Jobs Data, Easter War, and STILL No All-Time High”

  1. With several big players ready to rumble (Russia>Ukraine, China>Taiwan) I’d expect some additional smaller players like Iran>Israel and India>Pakistan to jump in. Best be ready yesterday. All these smaller issues like fiat currency and vaccines will quickly be of lesser importance. Don’t look at the flash, tip your wait staff and most importantly, talk to loved ones daily.

  2. George

    “Nostradamus cryptic predictions of the future.”

    Perhaps we should consider Nostradamus the worlds first published Remote Viewer?

    • phase conjugate mirror – black sciring mirror /bottom of cup/bowl was the technique/technology used.. do not recall any hint of OBE’s , multi-dimensional travel reports..

  3. Well, for those worried about Ukraine, here is my military assessment:

    Vlad has taken off the gloves and called the Biden Administration’s (if we can call it that) bluff. Now, from a military perspective, the Ukes don’t have a chance and getting US forces into the Ukraine at this date will be impossible without huge losses. Basically, there are 3 points of entry for the US:

    –Overland from Poland
    –Amphibious assault through the Crimea or Odessa area
    –Airborne assault

    All 3 scenarios take massive planning and would need well north of 500,000 troops to counter the Russians who are fighting from their own back yard. Also, the US does not have that many combat troops without augmentation from the reserve and national guard. These type of call ups take months to even begin to stage forces. The logistics for the US in general are terrible. Now, Vlad will not play fair – he will use tactical nukes to strike any inward bound troop movements. He knows the stakes, and it’s a no holds barred situation. The US will blink, don’t worry. Our military is not ready culturally for a no holds barred fight – and the US is broke on top of that.

    • True Steve.. and from what I can see and read about opposite movements in at least four other areas that I can see at the same time.. so.. which front do you move on.. go to Ukraine.. or the south china sea.. Maybe Iran’s pipeline or Syria’s oil field.. OR..
      the mass movement of illegal refugees on the border.. that situation is deteriorating daily..
      so far it isn’t obvious but there are fears of attacks from within our own countries borders…. everyone has forgotten that they openly told everyone that they would move militants within our borders using the illegal refugee movement as the trojan horse.. so which area holds the most importance….

    • Agree, Steve. But NATO is still on tap to engage the 1st wave of any potential Ruskie land attack until U.S. Air, Sea and (later) land forces can augment – air within hours. Combined exercises (combined = more than one nation) are conducted just about every year to orchestrate military responses to various scenarios without unintentionally aggravating Putin and his pawns. Should the Russian military move offensively, expect to see NATO/U.S. naval blockades of Russian N. Sea and Black Sea naval ingress and egress routes to the N. Atlantic and Med. All of this said, should Russia joins China out of Vladivostok in the Pacific for an assault on Taiwan and/or S. Korea and Guam, U.S. and allied resources would be stretched beyond reasonable limits. If this happens, strap yourself in for severe turbulence and an ugly period in human history.

      • “But NATO is still on tap to engage the 1st wave of any potential Ruskie land attack”

        I have personally seen NATO forces here heading down the road to drill.. I wonder if that is why they are here.. just in case they are needed to stop an attack on US soil…

  4. Happy Good Friday to you and yours. Thank you for the fine references and updates on the world at the brink. It is very useful material, as are your thoughts on the big picture.

  5. We need a betting website.

    War by May or not. (Hint: Always take the against because it doesn’t matter the other way.)

  6. In line with the reduction of Kaepernick fever breaking we have Great news from Seattle area if it comes to fruition – “State Supreme Court rules recall petition for Seattle Councilwoman Sawant can go forward” She is the socialist/communist that decided she could lead the Antifa & etc crowd into XXXXXX and XXXXX(read “trouble with the establishment”) . Head tax on payroll etc. Sometimes it takes time for the stupidity of the mob to be backed out to reality. Hope this is the case here and hopefully in time before we duck and cover.

  7. Perhaps the Suez butt-plug effect was only just being tested or used as a warning? Any war in that region would require a regular movement in the Suez. Regardless of who or why, that demonstration was for US.

    When a name is prominent in events, look at the anagrams. Ever Given becomes:
    Verge Vein
    Never Give

    I’d say the Suez is a verge vein. Never give speaks for itself.

  8. “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 916,000 in March”

    Hmmm…. as the money is going full speed printing numbers like never before.. ( where do you see this happening other than at the Federal Reserve… telemarketers.. seems they have an endless number stream as well . almost worth dumping the phone LOL ) and the dollar is diluted.. wouldn’t the payroll numbers increase exponentially just because of the deflating dollar bill and the mass of number generation. if growth went up by 916 zero’s but they generated 1000, zeros..then wouldn’t it actually then be a Loss rather than a growth.. Just a thought..
    an example from the paycheck to paycheck group… if expenses go up by fifty percent but you get a quarter raise.( employers aren’t giving raises right now) . sure your making more in your payroll but in reality your making overall less in comparison to the movement of money.. Just a thought from the bottom of the pile…

  9. G,
    Suez traffic does not affect us all that much. The mediterranian countries,Europe, Iran, Saudi Arabia.
    Not USA. We are food and energy independent. Europe Russia China are not.
    So let them rattle those arms and chains.
    If Texas,New Mexico ,Arizona and California want to close our border.. They can. Declare a state emergency,activate their state National Guard,call on the Milita that is citizens and close the damn border…. Would force many changes in DC and across the country. Go to court,show how many laws they are breaking force a confrontation..
    Popcorn and soft drinks are available.

    • The Wall has already been fully paid for – material, engineering and construction. Your suggestion is a no-brainer.
      The State National Guards will have to protect them from D.C.?
      The States could wait and plan for this and, in a short while when D.C. is occupied elsewhere, implement the plan!

    • We are no longer energy-independent. Mr. Biden ended that within days of his inauguration.

      We are back on the Saudi teat, so the Suez is about us, too.

      BTW, did anyone notice the two Saudi Suez terminals the Iranians bombed, while the EverGiven theatre was playing out down the Canal, a ways…?

  10. Please let me sum up the situation, Clowns to the right of me, Jokers to the left, it appears to me that we are up to are necks in San Francisco Tootsie Roles.

  11. Not such a Good Friday after reading the two G.A.Stewart pieces that George linked to. (Kudos to both of you) Instant preps review. KI handy. Weak on water collection… but it rains here a lot. A bit of thought tells me that plastic garbage cans, wrapped with filament tape for bursting strength, would be cheap and quickly obtained water collection barrels at the downspouts. Time is short.

  12. “One million three-hundred-twenty-three-thousand ‘ESTIMATED’ to have grown.”

    They don’t make Vice-Grips that big…

  13. Nosty lived under the Julian Calendar, but I suspect was versed in both astrology and basic precepts of Judaism and The Torah, and so probably “told time” by moon phases and the Hebrew Calendar – at least in his writings.

    If it happens, my guess is May 2nd…

  14. {I notice Stu shares my dis/mis/un-trust of Mr. and Mrs. Kagan.}

    Understand, Stu, the groundwork for the color wars was laid by Soros lackeys, beginning in the early ’90s. Once festivities had the inertia of motion, Victoria Nuland supplanted his money with ours, through USAID, (and in some cases OPM, through influencing other NGOs). She furnished physical and logistical support to the revolutionaries through our State Department. Vichy played Ares for GHW, Clinton, GW, and Obama, before Trump stuck her at the dark end of a dead-end corridor. Biden has since released her back onto the world.

    Please do not ignore the possibility that one of these inhuman bâtards shows up in the prophesies. They, and a certain Colonel, are some really bad actors of our times…

  15. “The old Charon will celebrate Easter in Lent,” – Nosty

    Maybe some of the religious scholars can correct me, but my understanding was that Orthodox Lent started March 15, and runs through May 1, with Orthodox Easter on May 2.
    Put!n is not above making a theatrical political bluff, but the amount and breadth of the men and hardware in motion isn’t looking like a bluff. The opposition is just waiting for the cross-country travel conditions for tracked hardware to firm up. Best to review readiness this weekend.

  16. Russia has a Opioid problem, big HIV problem, Tuberculous problems, falling average lifespan problem. Not enough people having babies to sustain their current population.
    Failing school system. Most of the people who can run and engineer their factories are old and dying..
    Russia has many problems few solutions. They should reach out and seek help.Many nations of Europe would help. Might start the building a whole New European power involving the whole continent. Pipe dream. maybe.

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