We ought to be able to roll through this morning in near record time because what matters most is totally in your face. Time to hide the leprechauns and lingerie, kiddies. This is serious shit.
Markets, like people who have left sativa and gone on to stronger, like economic statistics, tend to get fascinated with minutia…
The new unemployment claims this morning are a useful indicator. But they do NOT comprise any be-all, end-all.
Read ’em and peep: This is one where S.A. vs N.S.A. numbers come back to bite…
As you can see, we tend to look at highlighted NOT Seasonally Agendized numbers. If there’s bad news, we’ll take ours straight.
Market futures seem to be taking it hard. Could have been worse.
Philly Fed Data
Getting less play, but more hypographical:
The index for current manufacturing activity in the region jumped from a reading of 23.1 in February to 51.8 this month, its highest point in nearly 50 years (see Chart 1).
Feddishists: 50-Shades of Fiat
One shade was the happy-talk in the blather-speak (Fed policy) rate decision out Wednesday:
“The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus, including progress on vaccinations. The ongoing public health crisis continues to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook.”
Well, no kidding?
They left out the part “…and, if a large asteroid hits Earth, it could also impact policy…” In other words, it was another dollop of frosting on a turd sandwich economy.
Our Aggregate Reality
Two casinos: One has a big “handle” at the craps table, but the rest of the joint is empty, smells sour and stale. 30 “high rollers” at the craps table, though, have drawn-in a crowd from the street.
T’other casino? Not a huge crowd, just steady trade. Evenly split, slots, blackjack, craps, and Keno.
If you were in the business of “owning casinos” which one would you invest in? Yeah, a kind of “Adelson Afterlife” question, but it explains our fixation on our equal dollar allocated Aggregate Index.
Reason to be skeptical of single “hype numbers?” A reader (Ray) summed up the “headline or deep stats” quandary perfectly in a Comment today:
“Dunno betwixt you and your Consigliere – both systems have merit. I tend to favor yours, because the Dow periodically shuffles new members to their “30 club” in, and old members out, thus stacking the deck. Whether techs offset this shuffle or not seems to be where your opinions differ. IMO the techs would at least offer a buffer — There may be a better way, like reinstating the DJ members from some past point and computing one’s own “honest Dow,” but I ain’t doin’ da work — gots dirt to season, beds to build, and too many plants to germinate…”
Which is presactamente why our next story headline is:
STILL No New Aggregate High
Back to our Casino analogy: The “Craps table Casino” was at record crowds Wednesday (Dow?). The Roulette Casino (s&P500 analog?) was also at new highs. But, the city of Las Vegas? (e.g. the even-business casino)? Total handle is still off the Feb. 12 peak. Look like headed for the skids…
You see, the Aggregate Feb. 12 was 36,365.73 while the close Wednesday was a tiny bit below that at 36,222.71. But STILL 143-points shy of total handle levels of last month.
Also, with the index options expiring today, we were down to 36,013.87 in the pre-open.
Which is why the market is desperate to find ANY kind of good news it can. because the…
Rest of Headlines Suck
Our data work suggested a couple of days back that Covid was returning with a vengeance. (Readers challenged.) Yet, here we go in the catch-up news flow:
“Experts urge caution as 15 states see uptick in COVID-19 infections.” We expect Spring Break fallout to pop next week.
The AP is also reporting “Experts: Virus Surge in Europe a cautionary tale for US.”
All leads to the Mark of the Beast to buy, travel, sell, yada, yada as “Covid passport: EU proposes vaccine passport but how do Digital Green Certificates work?” Bad European ideas (kneeling to royalty, socialism, communism, bringing in migrants to create synthetic growth — need I go on?)_ seem strangely appealing to Americans.
Socialism on the March
Well, really, it’s communism on the march in America as the Razor Wire Coup (RWC) has plans to force people into a second retirement savings plan beyond Social Security.
Which brings us to another one of Ure’s Discontinuities which is worth mention: One of the following MUST be True: EITHER:
(A) Making Up Money (which we’re printing over the Second Depression with) works and is a viable answer to social greed (“Print all you need, currency is just a Utility run by government…”)
(B) All this shit’s going to blow up so we need to build a backdoor exit plan so we can walkaway from Social Security when we need to. (Which we reckon will come shortly after Japan and China want something of real value for their $2-1/2 trillion in US Bond holdings.
Which (class project) you can project out wondering what happens when the 10-year goes from around 1-1/2% up to 2-1/2%…
(My consigliere pointed out earlier this week that the 10-year bond has TRIPLED in 9-months. Going from around 0.51% (June, 2020) to the 1.64% range it was trading around Wednesday. At this rate, 7-months out, we could see inflation on fire and the Fed having to raise.
And…oh lookie here!!!
Whee! The Dow futures are now down 22 and the NASDAQ is down over 200. Dandy!!! You keep buying “casino numbers” – Ure’s looking at the total handle for Vegas and deeply appreciating Leaving Las Vegas.
More Bad Socialism?
Unexpectedly, Mesquite, Texas has a new anti-noise law that would let the cops issue noise citations for loud car stereos. Without the messy need for science. As in decibel meters (a whopping $20-buckeroo’s per on the Zon, right?).
See, the deal is this: We listen to music in our home studio in the 85-95 decibel range. That’s loudish (but being loutish, what did you expect?). Would I trust discretionary enforcement? In my car? Where road noise can be 75 db (65 miles an hour, very rough aggregate road). So 90-db levels are only 15-out of the noise.
(Seems to me someone made speed-adjusted sound systems a while back…can’t fetch it up from the old-n-addled yet, how-some-ever…)
God, I can hear it now: “Keep your hands on the steering wheel and do not reach for your remote…”
Just a million ways that discretionary law enforcement can be used to target minorities (like Urban-Contemp/rap listeners over Country Western listeners). Science-free, cop discretion. What could go wrong? (Socialism, neighbor, socialism. In the Club or…oh, I see you’re not a member…jail for you, Bubba…)
Inquiring Perv’s want to know: “Would it be OK if I installed an AIO machine, inverter, and a hot-spot in my car, instead, then?”
Of course we see this as immediately running afoul Climate (scam) moves. Larger devices consume more power, so now PORN could become a climate issue (and we’ll all go blind, yada, yada).
Who are these people? Everyone wants to be in charge of everyone else’s behavior. But, they can’t keep their own socks pulled up.
Everything’s a Business Model: We told you years back: Government – it’s the biggest growth industry we have.
Big government is bad. Socialism is worse. Communism follows. As America dances into Re-Segregation and installs a Holier-than-Thou economic caste system, the Digital Dark Ages appear led by the Digital Mob. A.I. enforced, government mandated.
Call Us Suspicious, But…
When I saw the CBS story “Why does America have the Electoral College – and should we keep it?” I couldn’t help but think “Oh-shit, here it comes…the congre-commies will f8ck up America, yet…”
Speaking of A.I.
How is the Borg setting us up, today? We check the “Awful-bet Borg” which is touting the lefty anti-gun agenda with follow-up minutia:
Making the “Badda-Billy-Bi g-Borg” look positively patriotic in a Revere sort of way:
With so little to matter, Ure’s off to chow and let’s see how my DOG a gamble works out?
In a revelatory moment, before the casino formally opened, I looked at the futures. With the MashedDeck down 1.54% and the Ess and what’s it was down 0.64%. Was betting the downside DOG might follow? We shall see, I guess.
I’m hooked on $10,000-sized scratch tickets. Hasn’t been a really great hobby, lol.
Write when you get rich,