Is There a Market Bet on Hawaii?

Hawaii’s getting its butt kicked this morning.  With the market set to tank further at the open we are wondering if the markets are discounting possible big problems in Hawaii from the two Hurricanes that are about to have a close brush with the place?

Step over to Mr. Ure’s whiteboard and we’ll run you through why the next three weeks will be key for the Islands.

We start with the report referenced in our unusual afternoon update Thursday that suggests (and this is per the NY Times so it must be true, right?) that changes in atmospheric pressure can trigger (gulp!) seismic stuff.

While I sit here and hit off the whiteboard marker, here, you go look up the barometric pressure range for the coming week at, oh, Hilo, for example.  That’s on the side of the Big Island that slipped in the 2006 quake, yeah?

(I’ll wait, another hit on this thing and I’ll be seriously ripped…)

Und zo… about 11 PM tonight, local time, that the barometric pressure will be about 30 inches of mercury.  That converts to 14.733 pounds per square inch of air pressure.  (You are following, right?  Wanna hit?)

And about sunrise this morning it will be 29.87.and that is 14.669 pounds per square inch.  Don’t be dozing off on me here.

So this 0.104 pounds per square in, or just a hair under 15 pounds of air pressure weight change per square foot.

And there are 27.8784 million of those per square mile…Which is 417 BILLION pounds of effective air weight change per square mile  and there are 4,028 square miles of the Big Island..

(One more hit on the market, here)

So that means roughly (exhale)  1.68-trillion pounds of effective air weight change in a period of, oh, 17-hours as the storm pressure center goes by.

All of which doesn’t mean anything at all will happen, but when Ma Nature puts 1.6+ trillion pounds of weight on a place were we just at a 4.5 quake yesterday, I wonder “”hmmm…wonder if anything could happen?

Usually, when we run the numbers like this, it frightens the disaster demons off and nothing at all happens, but it’s worth keeping an eye on, never the less, and we’ll just keep an eye on barometric pressure gradients along the way.

Oh, we didn’t have our discussion of lateral loading of the 41 mile per hour gusts on the land mass, either, did we?  Hey!  Gimme that marker back!

Economic Fairytales

Before we climb into the next little gem, we have a thought experiment to perform.  Imagine that you live in a town of 10,000 people.

Overnight, all but one of them dies of a mysterious killer disease.  But the lone survivor?  She wins a super-doople-PowerBall for $21 billion dollars.

Now, how would a government statistician report this? 

Obviously, the answer is “Average income of small town climbs to an astounding $2.1 million per person!”

Of course, everyone but the lucky (and alive) Lotto winner is dead, and I’ll sell you her number for a price, bur you see the point, right?

With this dandy bit of mind-curl, you’re now ready to read this from the Federal Reserve:

“In its new Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households, the Federal Reserve Board provides a snapshot of the self-perceived financial and economic well-being of U.S. households and the issues they face, based on responses to the Board’s 2013 Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking. The report provides insight into numerous topics of current relevance to household finances, including: housing and living arrangements; credit access and behavior; education and student loan debt; savings; retirement; and health expenses.

Overall, the survey found that as of September 2013 many households were faring well, but that sizable fractions of the population were at the same time displaying signs of financial stress. Over 60 percent of respondents reported that their families were either “doing okay” or “living comfortably” financially; although one-fourth said that they were “just getting by” financially and another 13 percent said they were struggling to do so. The effects of the recession also continued to be felt by many households, with 34 percent reporting that they were somewhat worse off or much worse off financially than they had been five years earlier in 2008 and 34 percent reporting that they were about the same.

If you have small children who are still awake, the story continues here.

If they’re still awake at the end of this tale, sing to them softly that old hymn from the Church of the Almighty Dollar Hymnal in C#:

Janet loves me, this I know

For the Fed, they told me so…

Lower interest rates will go,

Bright ahead when times are low…


Yes, Janet love me!  Yes, Janet loves me…  (etc ad nausea)

(The Hymnal will be released in Linux as soon as we can figure out how to put spyware in it, presently x32 and x64 only)

Grinding On Down

And that, brethren, gets us to the collapse in consumer spending.  Revolving Debt (credit card wankers) are increasing their clutch on your life by only 1.3% annualized in the Consumer Debt report out yesterday.

Of course, that’s to be expected, unless you’re a female in a town of 10,000 where everyone died overnight.  No people, no jobs = no spending.  How hard is this shit?

Ah, the Hallelujah Choir from the higher ed sector is still heard chorusing away “Yes, Janet loves us…”  as nonrevolving credit (e.g. student loans) were increasing at an 8.4% annualize rate.

Dow futures up 36.


Just out is the Labor Department’s latest sack of “good news

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 2.5 percent annual rate during the second quarter of 2014, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as hours increased 2.7 percent and output increased 5.2 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the second quarter of 2013 to the second quarter of 2014, productivity increased 1.2 percent as output and hours worked rose 3.2 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively. (See table A.) Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked of all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers.

Hallelujah, brethren!  We’re getting more efficient, so that we won’t need as many people working…and with all these gangstahs being imported from Mexico by the Washington Cartel, who cares if no real jobs (except for banksters, lawyers, career political hacks, and lobbyists who make gazillions) are left.

That’s the ‘Merican way!!!! 

Didn’t used to be…but hell, I’m so old that I can remember when people could spell self-sufficiency.  Hahahaha…joke’s on us, huh?

More after this.  I gotta figure out why my blood pressure is only 128/74 this morning…


(In the above, note the high priced books are college level texts.  The lower-priced books are for post college rehab. – G)

‘Raq:  Peace Prizer’s Pickle

We were there for how long, then left, and now we’re bombing there again?

As the president OK’s “limited” airstrikes (like limited pregnancy?) we wonder how long before ISIS will turn off the water…or blow the dam to make its point.

And now that they have the biggest Christian city in the region, we’ll be seeing back to Crusades warfare ramping up any minute.

Not sure if this is sweet and sour, or dill, but the peace prizer’s pickle fo sho…

Surrounded by other Geniuses

:WHO declare Ebola outbreak a global health emergency.

Well, no shit? 

The minute one gets on an airplane, it’s over…and that’s likely out there percolating and incubating right now… Did these guys all miss The Last Ship?

Would the medical profession please revise their oath to something more current, please?

Like “First, do no stupid.

(Don’t ask me if I’m pissed about this…you can’t be that dense…)

The Friday Night Fights

Playing this morning, but there as night falls in Ukraine and Gaza.

Memo to Issa

Yo, Darrell, and the missing docs dudes…

Now that all those emails have gone missing, most recently from Marilynn Tavenner’s computer, why not just demand the NSA to roll ‘em out? 

We know they’ve got ‘em all, right?  So why not roll them out that way?  WTF, how slow are ya’ll back there?

Or are there files on cmte members, huh?

China Rocks

And as the curtain comes down over the West, we note that China trade surplus at a record high as exports rocket to twice expected levels.

We’re gonna have to retool that American slogan “Go West, young man” to “Keep going…take the flight out of LAX…”