Is the Housing Top In?

Time to be asking such questions. Because one of the side effects of closing down American borders could be a lessening of long-term housing demand.  For now, we have today’s Case-Shiller/S&P Housing numbers to contemplate: (my underline)

NEW YORK, JANUARY 28, 2025: S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the November 2024 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The leading measure of U.S. home prices recorded a 3.8% annual gain in November 2024, a slight increase from the previous annual gains in 2024.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.8% annual return for November, up from a 3.6% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 4.9%, recording the same annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.3%, up from a 4.2% increase in the previous month

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National, 20-City, and 10-City Composite Indices’ upward trends continued to reverse in November, with a -0.1% drop for the national index, while the 20-City Composite saw a -0.1% decline and the 10-City Composite was unchanged.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National, 20-City, and 10-City Composite Indices all posted a month-over-month increase of 0.4%.

And we tend to overlook their month-on-month percentage changes.  Because what matters most to us is the actual prices chart because that gives up a much better long term perspective.

OK, into writing trance.  Go read the rest of today’s column here.

-Ure