In the Dark, One Last Rally? Options Day

Reader Note:  We will be posting this morning in pieces because of a power outage here in “the outback.”  When storms roll through this part of East Texas, we will occasionally get power outages as tree limbs fall and so forth.  While people like to decry the use of “smart meters” there is an upside to them:  By the time I hit the online reporting facility of the local power company, our outage was already logged on the outage map, other meters sensed, and the company had dispatched a crew knowing that 424 homes in this area were without power as a result.

While it’s true that excess RF can be bad for humans, and we are frankly skeptical of coming higher duty-cycle transmitters (as in 5G systems), and while we know that Alexa is always listening, there’s an upside to all this new-fangled automation and technology:  Reliability.

Back to point:  In spite of our solar system, and extensive back-up power system, there will still be times when (like now) when we’re back to basics an only one internet onramp.

So…we post in sections…. Refresh this page through the morning and you’ll get a sense for how our workflow progresses…

One Last Rally?

The fear in the market Wednesday was almost palpable.  Someone you know did one of his “two-hour lunch money specials” and pocketed enough for a nice dinner out without any long-term exposure.

Trend Channels 103, Gann Lines

(101 was earlier this week here, 102 was up for subscriobers Wednesday). Let’s take another look at the Aggregate Index the past few weeks and where things might head today based on early futures pricing:

Pay attention to the dashed lines.  While we drew the primary trend channel bottom (connecting A with B and extending it off and up to the right) there was another line that could have been used – the upper dashed line.  W.D. Gann is credited with this one.  A  Wikipedia contribution picks it up from there:

Gann described the use of the angles in the stock market in The Basis of My Forecasting Method, a 33-page course written in 1935. The legitimacy of Gann’s techniques has been seriously questioned. Calculating a Gann angle is equivalent to finding the derivative of a particular line on a chart in a simple way.[1]

“A Gann angle is a straight line on a price chart, giving a fixed relation between time and price. For Gann the most important angle was the line which represented one unit of price for one unit of time, called the 1×1 or the 45° angle. The value of a commodity or stock following this angle will for example increase by one point per day. Other important angles were the 2×1 (moving up two points per day), the 3×1, the 4×1, the 8×1, and the 16×1. In addition to these value increases, the corresponding angles for value decrease are just as important. When several of these angles are drawn in a group, they are often called a Gann fan, which is usually drawn from a price bottom or a price top.

As with other forms of technical analysis of stock price movements, the Gann angle model contradicts the weakest form of the efficient-market hypothesis which states that past price movements cannot be used to forecast future price movements.”

There are a fair number of soft ware renditions of the concept, “dynamic Gann lines” or DGL.  Like Elliott waves, they are not conclusive, but they will give an astute trader ideas of where the market could head next,

And, since this is the day Index Options expire, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the market have some “spread” between today’s action and tomorrow’s equity options close so the “commercials” can cover and make a few bucks on their index options.

The Fed Problems

Overblown, or losing control?  Depends who you listen to.  Perma-bears, of course, will worry the “old shoe” about how the Fed shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near the Nation’s money.  On the other hand, J. Powell’s press conference following the rate decrease yesterday made it clear the Fed would do what it needs and for now, he’s thrown cold water on the notion of the U.S. employing negative interest rates.

Stories like “Why is the NY Fed pumping billions into the money market?” and “Fed loses control of its own interest rate as it cut rates — ‘This just doesn’t look good’” are worth reading.  But, a simple Elliott count continues the possibility that we could have one more run up.  Subscribers can  worry about the larger ascending triangle, though, and we know how those end.  Badly.

In Ure-up: Bank of England Keeps Rates Unchanged, Warns On Brexit Uncertainty.

Meantime, I sure like cash until things settle down and the larger direction solidifies.

One somewhat prickish comment this morning asked “Where’s the insightful view of the Fed screw up?”

You won’t like our answer:  As a nut case and conspiracy observer, I can only remark on the very “coincidental-ness” of the NY Fed mess.  Because it is a highly technical operation, plausible deniability is strewn all over the place.  But old friar Occam (with his razor) has a different take.

Since the Fed rate cut cited only scant evidence of any economic storm to come, we get to wondering if there might not be “implants” in the NY Fed – just as there were implants in the U.S. Dept of Justice.  You know, running the administrative Xamboni machine so Hillary could slide…

As we extrapolate it:  A few “deniable” mishaps in the NY Fed and the confidence in the economy craters…and now you’ve got the makings of a decline, for sure.

It would be like sending someone into a crowded theater with matches.  The idea isn’t to burn the theater down.  Just have the person sitting next to you yell “Fire!”  The rest takes care of itself.  We therefore would have to eye the NY Feds internal personnel with some suspicion: Why screw up now?  If that “screw up” could be made to look like Trump’s fault, even better.  But just setting the boiling economy back on its heels would be enough to up dem odds in 2020.  Seems a better scenario than “Oh, an accident…miscalculation…computer glitch…” or whatever.

Implants work – and so far, crooks at the top have a fair track record of success when viewed as a design template.

Oh, one other reasson to “love cash?”  How would you like to have a power outage and be on the wrong side of a trade?  EMP could do that, or, as this morning’s power problems continue…

No, EMP is not happening today to the U.S. as a whole, but until you get into a position where you considered holding a position overnight, only to take up and find the power off, you really don’t have a sense of how comforting cash positions can be.  Long-term, the power will come back (at least it always has, so far) but the mind wanders.  More coffee from the thermos?

As long as the world is tracking “normal” (or some approximation thereof) things like emergency power and redundant UPS’s and fully charged laptops don’t matter.  But in some alt. future, there are outages that are widespread.  And you do know that most cell phone sites are only good for 48-hours, or so, before the last-ditch trade-on-the0smart-phone stops working?

Breaking:  Some Fresh Data to Munch

Not as good as a plateful of French toast with a side of bacon, but the Philly Fed numbers and US Current Account are out this morning.

“The U.S. current account deficit, which reflects the combined balances on trade in goods and services and income flows between U.S. residents and residents of other countries, narrowed by $8.0 billion, or 5.9 percent, to $128.2 billion in the second quarter of 2019, according to statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The revised first quarter deficit was $136.2 billion.

The second quarter deficit was 2.4 percent of current dollar gross domestic product, down from 2.6 percent in the first quarter.

The $8.0 billion narrowing of the current account deficit in the second quarter mainly reflected an expanded surplus on primary income.”

And from the Philly Fed:

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand this month, according to results from the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broad indicators remained positive, although their movements were mixed: The indexes for general activity and new orders fell, while the indexes for shipments and employment increased. The survey’s price indexes increased notably this month. The survey’s future general activity index moderated but continues to suggest growth over the next six months. 

See why I lean toward the NY Fed as “losing control” meme being a plant?

Also worth looking at will be the Fed’s H.6 Money Stocks report out this afternoon.

Canada’s Leading Idiot

If you hadn’t figured out by now that Justin Trudeau was an idiot, you haven’t been paying attention.  In the land of hockey and beer, however, we’re less than suprrised to learn that “Justin Trudeau Wore Brownface at 2001 ‘Arabian Nights’ Party While He Taught at a Private School.”  How this was not known before is of interest; do Canadians not put their “pawns of real power” unders the microscope?  We can only conclude that The Powers have run out of uses for Trudeau, so they have “opened his control file” which shoves him down the great garbage disposal of politics: Public opinion.

The Climate Hoax

Ah, just as we’ve been pointing out (especially with some of the reader-contributed links in our Comments section), the global climate models are a bust because they don’t handle the math right.  But, if the heavy-duty math is all too much, try this on for size:  “Doomsdays that didn’t happen: Think tank compiles decades’ worth of dire climate predictions.

Yes, of course humans cause warming.  But without all that frenetic activity (building the latest and greatest phone to run the latest and greatest apps and other semi-pointless human endeavors) the unemployment rate goes to 50 percent, Global Revolution (GlobalRev) breaks out and by the time  that’s done, we will be down to somewhere around 1-billion survivors.  Pick Ure poison:  Economic collapse, revolution, and a mass die-off thhe hard way or a centuries long “death by degrees.”  Which, thanks to young people seeing the problem as cast by the Marxists in Education, is why only the stupid people have high birth rates.  More followers for the Marxist victim leaders , but I suppose you don’t need to hear that rap today…

Also Worth Knowing (AWK)

My, ain’t we special? Seniors will soon have their own IRS tax form.

Right again:  A while back we chided the brain-dead media (BDM) in the case of an airline mechanic with a seriously Middle Eastern name for pandering that his (alleged) sabotage was over “union grievances.”  Well, lookie here: American Airlines mechanic accused of sabotaging jet stored ISIS videos on his phone.  Look surprised – and appalled that infiltrated media lies coming to light.

The Trade Wars drag on.  But India meets criteria to reclaim U.S. trade concessions.

As we’ve been on back-up power so far this morning, I suppose it’s worth mentioning Imelda spawns tornadoes and brings life-threatening flooding to Texas.

(With the power off, it’s on to the throne room with a flashlight and then going through reader comments and approving them,,,)

Power came back on at 7:18 AM. Thanks to the power company for the reminder about how fragile the digital world can be for those not adequately prepped… Time enough to proof read now…

Write when you get rich,

30 thoughts on “In the Dark, One Last Rally? Options Day”

  1. George,

    This may come as a shock to many of your readers, but, on a planetary scale, there are no man-made ‘climate’ emergencies or even any ‘environmental’ emergencies. There are places where there are serious local and regional problems, but on the whole we’re all just fine. There’s not a damn thing to get excited about and even if there were there’s not a damn thing we could do about it.

    As you know, people love doom porn. Be it environmental, religious or political people love it. Couple that with low quality education, constant propaganda and lack of critical thinking skills and you have a really easily managed herd of sheep. They’ll believe anything you tell them as long as it’s dramatic and untrue.

    There are real threats to humanity that are not taken seriously. I suppose they’re not taken seriously because there’s not a good way to make a buck on it or they don’t lend themselves very well towards political gain. You’ve talked about these ad nauseam here. EMPs (Natural/man-made), nuclear war and impacts by asteroids or comets. Any or all of these things could literally happen tomorrow. If they did then we’d have some serious problems that most of us wouldn’t survive.

    It’s been my supposition for many years that the ultimate weapon of mass destruction is and always will be testosterone. I’m not man bashing because I are one, but let’s be real…it’s us men folks who start 99% of the trouble in the world. If women ran things, when one country got mad at the another they’d give each other the silent treatment for a while and they’d be friends again. Problem solved and nobody has to die.

    We humans are in sort of a bad spot thanks to nature. For whatever reason, we’re in the ‘sweet spot’ to be extremely dangerous to ourselves. If we were just a little dumber we’d be fine and if we were a little smarter we’d be fine. But no, here we are, just smart enough to figure out how to produce maximum negative results but too stupid to do anything about it.

    As you can tell, I’m feeling generally salty today. Have a better one.


      • George,

        Thanks for the part about the climate doom porn wayback machine. It’s always a hoot to see just how wrong futurists can be. I recall the gloom and doom predictions during the oil “crisis” in the 70’s and the hyperinflation of the 80’s. But they got a paycheck so I guess all is well.


    • “but on the whole we’re all just fine. There’s not a damn thing to get excited about and even if there were there’s not a damn thing we could do about it.”

      My opinion exactly…thanks for sharing..
      Now everyone should just relax get a good cup of coffee and chill out on the global climate worries..a carbon tax isn’t going to do a dam thing.. I burn coal yo heat. I double burn it so I dont have all that nasty crap .. use it all and build cities greener. Plants not asphalt and concrete

    • “political people love it. Couple that with low quality education, constant propaganda and lack of critical thinking skills and you have a really easily managed herd of sheep”

      Since I’m on the lower rung of the economic structures society..
      My life and lively good depends on them for survival..


      I’ve been practicing so when it does implode.. and it will. So that I can fit in….

      B A A A A Baaaa or MOO moo

    • maj13 you’re missing it ,it’s not the testosterone, although you may be feeling it right now , it’s the lack of testosterone there’s over six billion people on this planet and there’s just a few at the top of the pyramid Federal ruling everything and the six billion are scared out of their britches ,they’re scared that the people at the very top are going to come down on them whatever the case may be because powers that be makes the money they make the bombs, they make all the weapons, they have all the assassins they have everybody in their back pocket because everybody is scared for their own life from these few at the very top so we need more testosterone not less ,women would make the country a worse place as you can see what Hillary was up to she had no testosterone no guts to stand up and fight for what’s right she was going to do everything that was wrong now let’s talk about something else.
      You say there’s nothing we can do about it that’s a false statement Maj 13.
      Some people just give up and say they don’t have to do anything let nature take its course but when that happens when people keep quiet and the force keeps ruling there are no consequences to that Force it’s only when people take action and take action at the very top level not at your neighbors not at your local governments but at the very top as you a mass as a group billions of people that have the same agenda but the only way that’s possible is with this technology that we possess now and that’s why cutting off the loose in so the communication is snipped in the bud but don’t give up it’s what you don’t see that’s happening that’s going to change everything.
      Past Electronics societies succeeded well , it was only the natural occurrences planetary events putting them undermountains and under seas and under deserts.

      I had a dream
      I walked down into the gravel pits or slaves were and the slave form and I asked the slaves where their boss was and they pointed over to him as I walked over to him I offered out my hand to him to shake and he looked at me weirdly then I said I’m your new owner and I’m setting you free.

      To me this indicates we’ve been slaves of the banking system for as long as people can remember and now that’s slowly change we will be empowering ourselves and the new technologies are coming out, ( as oil will be slowly put to rest) and the number one person figurehead behind all this that Mark does not like Christmas tree Trump and his associates.

      I’m your new owner and I’m setting you free.
      May all beings be lovingly fulfilled,
      May all beings be financially fulfilled,
      May all beings be readily fulfilled,
      So Be It.

  2. Ure guilty of Common Sense ole timer – guilty as the day is loong!

    U racial profiling, conservative leaning dispenser of FUD.

    In this here land of “ruling lib elites”, 80 year grandmas are EQUALLY GUILTY of being potential Terrorists/Bombers. This is why the very gay TSA so ENJOYS aggressive, invasive searches of Invalids and wheelchair ridden Grandmas.. those dangerous, dirty, sneaky, wanna kill Americans, beautifully aged ladies!

    Get in line sheep, bend over & grab those cankles cause Uncle Sam loves doing Cavity Searches of INNOCENT “sheep”, helps with the CONTROL thing..

    What U didnt know 9/11 made U a SLAVE – be afraid, very fact consider the threat level Triple RED – U guilty looking Grandmas and wheel chair bound Veterans!

    Bwahahahaha – not so Civil..

    • WW III started when George W. Bush II invaded Iraq. It will not be a conventional war but an ambush war, like the The Roman Battle of the Teutoburg Forest. We are too powerful to conquer, but are vulnerable in our semi free society. Since they can’t defeat us as they did the Knight’s Templear, & the US won’t leave Iraq & Afganistan, it is time to start chipping away as we saw in Saudia Arabia. They have had 18 years to prepare.

  3. Yo G another puzzle piece has been located..JP Morgan has been found to be running a Criminal operation – Trading Desk (s) – Surprised?

    No – not the coot, been watching & complaining about price suppression activities in PM markets for ages.
    RICO charges pending – all the way up to Ms. Masters, Blythly lying her way thru the legendary Rafiki quips in Lion King..”Cheetahs Never Prosper”

    The question that begs an answer is When Does the Precious Metal Price Suppression Project END? this month? next month? not until a nuke missile takes out the Rothchilds?

    When it does stop – what happens to all the Bazillions in Derivatives and Lending/Swap Agreements with the Bullion Banks?

    Scary idea of the day – What if ALL Financial Markets and Information is manufactured and fake?


    Got Gold?BTC’s?

    • Mr. Bandicoot, in voicing his ‘pinion, is apparently guided by the story on Bloomberg:
      “JPMorgan’s Metals Desk Was a Criminal Enterprise, U.S. Says”
      We note that Ms Masters is one of the most influential women in blockchain and wonder what (if anything) that portends for the digital tulips?
      Can something be called an “asset” when all it takes to disappear it is losing power?

      • IMHO,

        If the J.P. Morgan story was real (if anything were to become of it), gold would have unsuppressed right away.

        We’re never going to know who Epstein’s customers were. There’s real child rapists involved. Probably dead kids too.

        I propose changing the “Milk carton kids” to “champagne children” putting their faces on those bottles.

        And if you think Hillary is ever going to jail, please send me any leftover marijuana seeds you have cause you got the good stuff.

  4. About the Climate Hoax. Wander over to a site called “Electroverse “, and wonder why what you are reading there , is not mentioned in in the main stream news. My guess could be listed under the term, “culling”, as to eliminate? At 80 years, one fact stands out.. If there is a danger, and you don’t report it, or hide it. you are intending those actions to cause harm.. Can the people from the fake hockey stick graph of projected temperatures be charged with “Crimes against humanity”?

  5. Canada’s Leading Idiot. Most of us have known this for a long time. Who can forget his famous line last election “The budget will balance itself”

    The leader of our Federal Conservative party said some bad things about gays in 2004 so I guess this episode by Trudeau in 2001 cancels that one out.

    This is our mud slinging warmup to your Presidential election next year. By comparison , we are amateurs!

    • Blackface twice since, the last only a few years ago. American radio broadcast both his attempts at damage control, last night. I dunno how they were received up there, but down here, he sounded like another one of OUR blithering idiots, trying to get his hand out of a cookie jar and, at the same time convince the listeners the jar didn’t exist.

  6. George, for as long as you’ve been in the outback there and had these power outages all the time that seem to come and go I’m surprised you don’t have a backup generator Little generac or whatever you want to buy and run your essentials off of it till the power comes back up I’m sure they sell propane you may even have natural gas on your property come on George come in the year 2019

  7. “But, a simple Elliott count continues the possibility that we could have one more run up.”

    There seems to be always “this fly in the ointment?”

  8. This one here seems edgy to me.

    Basically, Detroit has a “topless” bar that seems to allow free enterprise. The activities probably did go off the rail. Anyway, the judge in the case is forcing the club to sell all the building contents. Anything that’s not bolted to the floor has to go.

    Detroit strip club Penthouse to shutter for a year, auction off contents

    “Kenny also ordered that items inside Penthouse be auctioned off, noting that all “furniture, fixtures and contents including intoxicating liquor” are a public nuisance because they “enhanced” the “illicit behavior” that went on at the club. ”

    “Doug Baker, chief of criminal enforcement and quality of life with the Detroit Law Department, said the city is still looking into what items in the club can be sold and which are bolted down or part of the building. ”

  9. George, let me help.
    The reason the Fed is lowering rates now is because the economy is tanking.
    W and the Republicans were handed a good economy and in 6 years, ran it into the ground. Trump and the Republicans were handed a raging economy, and in 2 years destabilized it.
    I was a big Reagan supporter, but must now admit that he was the single biggest culprit when he tripled the national debt with his trickle-down nonsense, and forever more put the R’s on the Road to Greece. Best, Mike.

    • Once again , show me ONE President that could spend money…ONE !



      I shouldnt wait because you cant show me one.

      Who spent all the money then ?

      ( Hint: No President can spend money , but another elected political group can )

      Stop with the continual baiting.

    • Trump and repubs handed a “raging economy”? Try to get beyond a surface level analysis. After years of zero bound interest rates, weak growth, low employment, lack of wage growth, etc. were being called “the new normal”. Calling that “raging” damages credibility.

  10. George, down south of beltway 8 in h
    HOU as Imelda leaves her finals gift… more rain. Areas beginning to flood out with shelter in place. I hope warhammer (woodlands area, correct?) is ok. I hope that the backwoods get dried out and back in order soon… looking to get to work here cleaning and drying out homes, again.

  11. The thing about this “airline mechanic” story that really smacks me in the face? His name. In a world where allegedly 19 hijackers from the mooslum world crashed 4 airliners into buildings and the ground, resulting in an entirely new “dept of homeland security” and nit-picky searches and seizures when trying to board an airliner, why the hell would airlines be hiring same as mechanics?
    Sure makes me want to fly, and NOT into a building!
    And ditto on the ‘Maj’s comment!

  12. You call them implants. The intelligence community calls them saboteurs conducting espionage. I doubt the possibility would be treated lightly by the affected office. My theory is the guy with the password is on vacation and there isn’t a backup. Don’t forget the current administration’s slash and burn personnel policy back when it took office. Those decisions are still being felt today…

  13. Just to support your comment on Trudeau we’ve had BETO for 4 years and with any luck the press will bury him!

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