Impeachment: The “Market’s Nested Nightmare”

I apologize to subscribers, as this is the type of thing that more properly belongs on our  Peoplenomics site ($40-bucks a year), but there’s a time-sensitive development in the futures market this morning that is worth kicking around.

If you’re not a subscriber, there are several things you need to do to keep up with the grown-ups.  First (besides saving up $40 bucks!) is to read at least the Wikipedia entry on Elliott Waves over here.  Then, read a couple of not-too-hard to follow books on trend channels.  I really like Gilbert Raff’s Trading the Regression Channel: Defining and Predicting Stock Price Trends.  Last, but not least, is Edwards, McGee, and Bassett’s Technical Analysis of Stock Trends.  Just under $80 bucks, but you will find all kinds of useful information.

If you still need more reading material, a further $76 investment in knowledge will get you Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes.  These contain many baseline concepts that  may improve the odds  of making money investing.

Impeachment, Viruses, And Markets

There are many ways to take the present market conditions.  One old saying offers the guidance that “Markets Climb a Wall of Worry.”  Impeachment and viruses…what could be better fear-fodder?

Which doesn’t explain as much as the Fed pouring oodles of cash into the market to bail-out hedge funds, but I’m pretty sure we’d be in a full-on Crash and Onset of Global Depression right now, if the Fed cut off all that roll-over of repo’s to the Hedgies.

As a result, however (that is, saving the Hedgies and to heck with Banks, who were trying to screw the hedgies), we may be near the end of a long market up-wave with perhaps another year, or two, of upside yet to come, though that remains to be seen.

Hong Kong had its ass-kicked overnight (-2.8%) so globalism’s got the jitters, fo sho.  But, there’s also an impeachment sham running in the U.S.  Pardon us, while we remain detached from the craziness.

This chart, based on my work on Aggregated Markets, showing the problem, is an easy to follow in a graphical way.  About 6-month’s worth….

One of the problems that many people have is “visualizing” how market action is “nested” in trend and wave counts.

Let’s start with the Biggest Trend first.  As you will see (looking at the GREEN boxes) the left Green is a wave 1 up.  There is a decline from the top of (i) to the bottom of (ii).  From there, a larger than the first box move has taken place.

This move may not be complete.  It is, when you see the box sizes, why I have been expecting a Wave (iv) down and then a final (v) up to “finish the green box” (or larger trend).  Yeah, I got grief for going short too early…and that’s just one of my problems in life:  I’m often several weeks or more ahead of turns.  But, the case is here that a Down move of some magnitude is quite possible.

Yet, before this large (iv) begins, we need to see “completion” at the next level in.  Which gets us to the YELLOW boxes.  As you can see at this level, the Wave 1 up of Yellow was smaller than Wave 3 up, so it looks like a valid count to me.  And even though the 5 up of the Yellow boxes looks a lot larger than the 3 up, that’s permissible under Elliott and common in commodities where the fifth waves are largest, many times.

And then we get to the latest subdivision:  This is where the RED boxes have also got a “complete-looking” wave count going.  That is, like the Yellow boxes, we see the same kind of small 1, larger 3, biggest 5th taking shape.

The Green 4th down should not take out Dow 27,000 or more than a few points below S&P 3000…because if it does, then the 4 down (Green) would turn into a 1 down of some larger degree and that could get ugly.  But, I’m hoping, not until late summer.  If the September 2019 highs are support, all’s still well and the odds of higher highs and a “green 5th” are ahead.

Not Financial Advice!

This is offered ONLY AS AN INTELLECTUAL DISCUSSION, NOT TRADING ADVICE.  I do not pretend to be a money manager; just someone who watches the longer waves in the economy (4-year and longer cycles) because these, too, tend to act as “nested waves” behavior.

The obvious analysis, however, is really an “In your face:”  The market is in a technical position where a major decline (Green boxes) to put in a “4-down” before a final runway rally into late summer ahead of the election, is looking like an interesting outlook.

We are certainly in “Expect the Unexpected Land” and we will only know in the fullness of time what the moving finger will write.

Nesting History Surrounds Us

History, too, has these “nested cycles.” The main one my consigliere worries about is the 72-year War Cycle.

You know that Pakistan and India are on the brink of either war or large social change in relations, and this is 72-years from their India-Pakistan Line of Control (LoC) being set-up

In fact, there’s a video this morning on Facebook about Security Concerns in Punjab as fears Pakistan is pushing in militants.

The BIG nested historical nightmare comes in May when Israel hits the 72-year mark.  Since such occasions are often marked by war, we do not expect this to be a peaceful summer.  Nor, do we believe that Iran is “standing down.”  It may look that way for a while, but we think there’s more to Aryan instability than meets the eye.

Disease Cycles, Too

And in another headline that has us concerned, even with our pneumonia shots, there’s the report of the Novel Corona Virus spreading now human-to-human in China. Beijing is telling people to avoid travel into the affected city.

As a result, the World Health Organization and other agencies are ramping up to figure out how to stop the outbreak.  No, we don’t know if the US pneumonia series of shots oldsters (like us) get will be effective, but that becomes a very important thing to keep an eye on.  Preemptively, Russia Screens Chinese Travelers Amid Coronavirus Fears.

Trends to Track

An armed society is a polite society:  No problems at the big gun rally is Virginia Monday.  The media hype was non-stop, but overblown.  Look surprised.

Globalists meeting in Davos will get another earful of the Climate Child.  President Trump, somewhat more rationally, we think, is still skeptical: Davos: Trump decries climate ‘prophets of doom’ at World Economic Forum.  In one of our discussion comments, a reader noted that “predicted highs” are being raised in order to make people think it’s getting warmer.  But when “forecasts” are met, it’s ignored.  Selling predictions (even wrong ones) is what climate is all about.  We’ve been warming since the glaciers withdrew.

Still, as we read Davos, climate is the globalists only financialization game left.  Which accounts for stories like Europe can lead the world in green finance, UBS chairman saysRemember the packing house lesson:  The herd is usually wrong.

On simmer for later this week: Index Measuring Americans’ Financial Satisfaction Over the Last Decade to be Released Thurs., January 23.

And :cultural appropriation” is the new buzz-theme amongst the Political Correctness Police (PCP).  To wit: What high fashion is doing about cultural appropriation..  Show of hands…anyone buying this BS?

Next thing you know, racial and ethnic groups will be demanding copyright royalties:  Italians could be a penny per pizza, Mexicans could get a per a pair for tacos, and China would want a penny for Chinese food.  Meantime, the Ure clan would not fare well on our cultural appropriation revenues from scotch, haggis, and bear claws… Nope, at some point the “victimology bullshit ends.”

We’re turning into a World of On-Lline Scammers…WOOLS is what every sheep becomes.  It arises when everyone trying to get one over on everyone else..  Yet somehow, it’s  hardly surprising since  Babel II is what the internet has become… Digital Mob Rule is here…Just because you haven’t been lynched yet, doesn’t mean you escaped the Mob…Be patient.  You’ll get your turn, eventually…

Social Media is a digital Noose.  Remember who warned you….

Write when you get rich,

31 thoughts on “Impeachment: The “Market’s Nested Nightmare””

  1. “Social Media is a digital Noose. Remember who warned you….”

    George, I promise I will not forget who warned me.

  2. Spot on, George! Social media is a targeted ‘psyops’ tool being deployed by more nefarious entities for control of the masses. Independent thought which doesn’t conform to that of the ‘powers that be’ is increasingly being shunned. Just how powerful of a tool is social media? Look around you on any street, in any line, in any store, on a bus or in an elevator. Real people are becoming peripheral components of human existence as human-to-human interactions are superseded by electronic communications. Virtual influencers, carefully metering their messages thru the Ethernet and gathering volumes of data on every user in the process, are winning the war for our minds with the help of AI algorithms which (with increasing accuracy) guide and/or predict our behaviors. We are officially living inside the pages of Huxley’s “A Brave New World.” Time to take my Soma.

    • … and it’s ALL caused by personal choices. Like Hitler, Stalin, or Mao didn’t just fall from the sky — most people chose and loved them!!

      • George, I don’t know many young kids of this generation that think communism isn’t bad. In our generation…the 60’s…yes. This generation….hell no. They are too embedded into consumerism, freedom of speech, expression and making boatloads of money…at least in my world…to even think about communism. My kids and me included love capitalism waaay too much.

        When you think about the down side of communism…suppression of ideas anti-ethical to the countries leader, suppression of open speech, the promotion of one news organization like FOX and the demonization of every single other news organization…favoritism to corrupt countries like Russia, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, NK and yes, even China…that defines Trump.

      • Bernie’s boys think that the Gulags weren’t so bad. I’m not going to choose Bernie, or his boys. The youngsters will choose who their social media handlers tell them to choose.

      • “George, I don’t know many young kids of this generation that think communism isn’t bad.”

        So, ask them how they feel about “Democratic Socialism…”

        …Which is newspeak for “communism.”

        The part of the message they don’t receive is: “Socialism is for the People, not the Socialists.”

        A few may realize “socialism” is a two-tiered caste system, but everyone who does, believes once we become socialist, they will be members of the “elite caste.” Those who don’t know it’s a caste system, idealistically believe once Gates, Buffett, The Koch clan and the Walton sibs are reduced to mere millionaires, the rest of us will become millionaires via gains from the “appropriation and reallocation” (theft) of wealth from the “moneyed few…”

        Tear yourself away from your clientele list sometime. Go hang out for an evening in any college pub, anywhere in CONUS, and just listen, when conversations turn socioeconomic…

      • “Like Hitler, Stalin, or Mao didn’t just fall from the sky — most people chose and loved them!!”

        No, most natives loved Hitler. Very few loved Stalin or Mao. Hitler’s policies pulled Germany out of the abject poverty brought on by War reparations and the Weimar Republic’s horrendous attempt to manage the German economy. We never talk about the 40-60mln Russians Lenin offed, but hard-fisted Josef, following up Lenin’s purges with his own, was supported strictly out of fear, as was Mao. When you kill off enough people to populate a continent, with utter disregard for everything but your ideology and personal goals, folks will follow along enthusiastically, since the sole alternative is to be a central figure in the nightly pyre…

  3. George

    “No, we don’t know if the US pneumonia series of shots oldsters (like us) get will be effective”

    I am very skeptical of the pneumonia shot! About two years ago She Who Must Be Obeyed had three of them is a one year period in an attempt to keep her out of the hospital for pneumonia. They did not work.

    It turns out that she has an immune system that was declining in it’s ability to protect her. She was missing one of the chemicals the body make that is used by the immune system. She now takes an infusion once a week to replenish that factor. It works! No hospital visits since she started that regimen.

    The gist of this story is that if you have a weak immune system the vaccine probably wont help.

    I’m not an anti-vacxer. I do however believe that how vaccines are produced and administered these days is not wise medicine. It could be so much safer and effective if the pharmaceutical companies could be held accountable for their products. Thanks to the efforts of Senator Joe Biden you cannot sue pharmaceutical companies for any injury sustained by their product in an open court. There is a Federal court that handles all of these type of cases apparently in an arbitration process.

    The vaccine industry likes to keep things quiet on this court but info on it is slowly getting out.

    “Federal Vaccine Court Quietly Pays Out Billions”

    “But there was little fanfare when, about the same time, an obscure federal program that compensates victims of vaccine injuries passed a milestone. Payouts by the national Vaccine Injury Compensation Program, or VICP, have now topped $4 billion.”

    “Medical experts say the vaccine court has played a crucial role in safeguarding public health by compensating litigants for their injuries and keeping these cases out of the civil courts, where they could potentially undermine the public’s faith in vaccines.”

    “where they could potentially undermine the public’s faith in vaccines”

    What are they trying to hide? Why are they using government to force vaccines on us? Just follow the money!!

    Go here for info:

    If I can’t sue for vaccine damage in a regular court then I won’t take the shot.

    Sunshine is a good disinfectant! A lot of sunshine is needed on the vaccine industry.

  4. Whenever I read or hear about climate change always the word people, like in herd, comes to my mind. How about that? ;-)

    P.s. George, from my vantage point you’re just middle aged.

  5. George,

    Kind of like “pick a poison” day, isn’t it?

    For me, the big worry is the one we can’t see. Novel Corona Virus.

    In my working life, I was a chemist/microbiologist. Now in my senior years and even with all the flu and pneumonia shots, I probably have a compromised immune system like most 78 year olds. I know what this virus has the potential to do and it scares the hell out of me.

    I urge you and your readers to wash hands regularly and diligently and carry hand sanitizer with you wherever you travel. Seems trite but it might save your life.

    • “For me, the big worry is the one we can’t see. Novel Corona Virus.”

      For myself its CRE (carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae) fifty percent die right away.. twenty linger and thirty percent don’t even know they have it.(healthcare workers).
      started with one person a few years ago today it is in all states…. when they asked if we would be interested in taking care of a guy with it.. ( a lingerer) I had never even heard of it.. I read everything did more reading in five days than anyone several thousand pages of boring material….then I talked to G2 to get his take on it along with several people that had worked in the isolation wings with them… and then I called the guy that discovered it and some guys with the WHO…
      we take care of it as a contagion level three contact precautions here in the usa.. similar to MRSA.. everywhere else they treat it like it is a four like EBOLA.. and everything is incinerated afterwards. while on the wings the healthcare workers stay on the isolation wings. and are checked weekly….
      I thought then.. this has to be the new plague..
      Now with that new flu that has all the characteristics of Aides.. dam. I hope it isn’t so but we will never know till it hits..and if its really bad.. they won’t want panic so they will follow standard procedures..


    I wonder.. predictions can be changed or delayed.. but are we past the tipping point.. as far as the economy.. I believe so.. as for becoming slaves to the PTB.. I think we are beyond that changing to.. like one of the predictions basically says.. stupidity and greed will be the ultimate downfall of man..

    the asnwers were simple.. they are now complex and would take a huge endeavor in my opinion to change.. not by one industry but by all industries..a massive surge to get people their pride back and off of the federal programs that are designed to enslave them.. global health and a huge drive to educate anyone wishing to get an education..
    the fall.. will be the destruction of all..

  7. G – Ure in a TRAP!

    U always suspected something was amiss in the waking world – have U figured out Ure boundaries inside the trap yet – what “they” did to Ure SOUL prior to entering this life? – the torture/pain/EMP electroshock(s) to fry Ure SOULs’ memories?
    “They” cant Destroy a SOUL – but they can mess with it and in-prison it.

    EARTH is SOULTrap/Prison.
    Dont know how or why SOULS end up here – but I do KNOW they are Trapped here – Ure coming back..again..with no memory of past life(s)..again.

    Stands to reason then “they” would herd/tag/brand/corrall/and or control the “Sheep” in any way possible.. DONT BE A Trapped SOUL!

  8. Flu Shots! How effective are they? In statistics, most things work if there is a 51% success rate. (Work the birthday problem yourself, you know, ask 23 different people their birth month and date, NOT the year) Statistics math shows after 23 different people, chances of two having their birthday on the same month and date are greater than 51%. (I have repeated this experiment many times in classes I taught.) Some times it does not work after 23 people, so make it 24 to increase percentage.

    When was the last time it was reported Flu Shots were 51% successful in preventing the Flue? Last figure I heard was 40%, but most of the time it is around 20%. Close to Las Vegas odds for winning the BIG jackpot! When was the last time you won a BIG jackpot at Vegas?

    Flu shots- New Business Model?

  9. It probably would improve the political climate if politicians would only be allowed to say what’s really on their mind, instead of reciting some written prose of which we do NOT know what entity is behind it. JMHO!

    “Abuse of power” in this case seems ridiculous. Why not investigate the causes of the “destruction of the middle class” in our society?

    Again, it’s US who have the power–we’re just too “stupid” to use it!

    • “It probably would improve the political climate if politicians would only be allowed to say what’s really on their mind,”

      DJT has been trying that.. the last few years.. it has been the biggest complaint from the Congress.. that he is telling people what he thinks…

      Its to bad that Congress doesn’t have to abide by this law LOL…

  10. George;
    Pneumonia shot 13 valent and 23 valent Pneumovax is for pneumococcal Pneumonia a bacteria not for a corona virus infection. sometimes you get the viral illness then develop pneumonia from a pneumococcal bacteria which Kills you….unless you had the vaccine.Influenza virus does that,this years vaccine is 58% effective they tell me but it is a yearly vaccine becuause the flu virus family changes every 10 years in a major way. sometimes worse for us,sometimes birds or pigs.. First you get the 13 valent vaccine then 1 year later the 23 valent vaccine. then a booster in 5 or 10 years. Has been a great success for us older folks.
    Now if you have an immune system deficiency and are being treated Fantastic because we have only been able to treat that for about 10 years or so..
    As a Physician Assistant for almost 44 years there are so many changes that have ha[[ened in my lifetime for improved health of children and adults it is so amazing. The next 50 years will also be amazing if,???? no nuclear war,famine, plagues,or genetic manipulation that goes bad.. so much that might be,so many ways to screw it up.. Exciting ain’t it..

  11. if you had a billion dollars what would you do to help the homeless.
    Okay if you had a million what would you do to help the homeless.
    All right we’re getting skinny here if you had a hundred thousand what would you do to help the homeless.

    What would you do with $10,000 if you can buy some old run-down place and with an acre what would you do to help the homeless.

    When you think of all the things you can do with $10,000 to help the homeless you wonder why more isn’t being done because rich people only think about one thing how to make more money.

    They say screw the little man screw the middle class that’s how come your European Union like it is but it’s having its effect over here in the United States
    Mark are you getting ready to run to Texas to get away from what’s going to happen in California.
    That you helped create.

    I’m guilty of creating a situation on the east coast and left.

    How much Mark hates President Trump is going to be re-elected and is George going to listen to your mark malarkey for another 4 years.

    Y’all at one point it’s going to hit home with Mark and he’s going to go I don’t like it here anymore I’ve been lied to these people I’ve been listening to all my life I’ve really gave me discomfort and how I’m feeling I want to move to text Sparkle say where everything’s better to get away from the s*** on the damn sidewalks out here where Pelosi rules the day and what Mark can and cannot say.

    What has the s*** hits the fan in the political Arena Mark will be so stirred fried he will be looking 4 a new city in a different country.
    After all it doesn’t cost as much to live in those other countries doesn’t Mark if you find the right country the US will not prosecute you it will say Good Riddance of you Democrats who are acting as Republicans who are all about global control even when they can’t control or help the homeless in their own backyard nope it’s going to go down hard say goodbye mark.
    You’ll be looking for a farm out there in South America just so you don’t have to stand another 4 years of trump.
    Repeat after me ,Mark hates Trump
    Mark hates Trump Mark hates Trump.
    It’s terrible how people lie just so they can enter satisfy their desires.

    The pyramid yeah the people at the top have gave misinformation that has gradually gone down through the pyramid and at some point mark believes that all, he believes everything they say he questions nothing that they say that’s a sorry life when you let others Lead You by the nose like a pig with a ring through your nose they’re pulling you right where they want you they’re pulling you through this s*** and you’re enjoying it how disgusting mark ,with a brain like yours if you sought the truth you could be a leader but instead your Pelosi’s picker upper of toilet waste.
    To our good friend Mark.
    May all beings be lovingly fulfilled ,may all beings be financially fulfilled and may all beings be readily fulfilled so be it.

    • “what would you do to help the homeless”


      That is why I won’t ever be rich or ever win the lottery.. LOL.. to see the look in someones eyes that you helped by giving them a hand up.. ( not a hand out..) is totally priceless… what is sad is the vast majority of us are but just a few paychecks away from being homeless.. it is a terrifying experience..
      the worst one was the year that they were seizing farms.. I made radiators.. 1.75 cents an hour..the wife had one of those experimental female devices.. and was sick all the time.. they cut hours then the car broke down.. I had to walk twelve miles in a cold winter weather without any snow boots or gloves.. I would layer clothes.. then they laid the whole plant off.. I did find something right away.. scraping the fat off of the hides of road kill..
      no food stamps.. we were going to be evicted.. I was scraping the grain up off of the ground to bead into a crude meal.. we didn’t have electricity or heat.. would leave the door open to get the heat from the unheated hall in our apartment and two babies.. the xmas holiday coming up.. our tree was a pine branch.. no jobs.. you couldn’t find jobs.. the fleshing job didn’t last long.. a couple of weeks.. no car..then some farmer had me help him clear his hen house out by catching the roosters in there.. I got a choice .. keep the roosters and some eggs or take the dollar an hour he offered me for the help.. I took the chickens.. I was ecstatic got home to find the apartment closed.. my first impression was oh no they booted us out.. where are my kids.. my wife.. I opened the door to a blast of warm air the lights on.. and every cupboard filled with food.. the fridge filled with food.. under that pine branch was winter clothes and a toy for each of the kids.. I fell to my knees and cried.. it was by far the best xmas I have ever had..there were receipts on the counter for the rent and the electricity for a couple of months..
      each year I find at least one in the same boat I was and make sure they get the same experience I did.. a blessed one.. through the years I have had several times similar to that.. each time someone I don’t know stepped in.. I do remember where I have been and do my best to help those in the same boat..

  12. “This is not a time for pessimism, this is a time for optimism. Fear and doubt is not a good process…to embrace the possibilities of tomorrow we must reject the perennial profits of doom and their warnings about the apocalypse. They are the heirs of yesterday’s foolish fortune tellers…they want to see us do badly, but we won’t let that happen. They predicted an overpopulation crisis in the 1960s, mass starvation in the 70s and the end of oil in the 1990s. These alarmists always demand the same thing – absolute power to dominate transform and control every aspect of our lives. We will never let radical socialists destroy our economy, wreck our country or eradicate our liberty. America will always be the proud, strong and unweilding bastion of freedom.”.

    Mark and his overseers will just have to learn from the best, President Donald Trump.

    • Bryce,
      I am on the front lines and I have no idea what you are talking about. Am I going to escape to Texas? Hell no. As a matter of fact, I have 10 buyer/clients moving from Austin back to the Bay Area. They drank the Austin Kool-Aid and soon realized that the grass is not only NOT greener, but dying and a bit root rotted. They came back because the Bay Area is a better place…maybe the best place to live and work in the entire world. Of course, I already knew that…I have traveled around the world seeking a better place and still have not found a place like the Bay area That checks so many boxes.

      About Trump…wake up. He is an idiot. Go back to your lazy porch

      • Yep keep bringing them in mark and watch the homeless keep increasing like I said you haven’t got a clue how to fix your own problems out there do you.
        And you won’t know either until you get out there in the street and act like they do for a week not one day but a week then you’ll get a sense of what they’re going through and how that you may help the city the county the state solve those problems but right now you are the problem Mark

  13. gold standards , dalio tipping inside trading , overbought maxed out .. but everybody sees markets going good and no crash .. gotta love greed haven’t yah .. sick brainwashed gurus a dime a dozen .. help the fed , bail em out

  14. and how about that crook dalio and many others !!!! time frames to disaster when it never went away !!! another couple of years of gold and good times !!! ray says cash is trash the creep . so whats debt ray?? good eh !!! good on yah crook .. happy days georgie

  15. I live in Eastern Oregon and just got the news saying that the first case of Coronavirus has hit Washington State.

  16. There is a vaccine for coronavirus for dogs (not sure about cats and possibly for other animals) that I use for my dogs and show dogs. It’s a three year shot for them.

    In the past, owners were advised to give the combination DA2PPV+CV (the CV is the corona vaccine) every year. Veterinarians and owners pushed back about the over-vaccines causing cancer. Vets changed where they administered the shot from the back of the neck to the thigh because if cancer developed, they could remove the leg.

    The ethical vets and owners successfully pressured the AVM to recommend a three-year vaccine cycle. I only give mine every 5 -10 years now based on their blood titer.

    The rabies vaccine is way over-administered as well. The titer in canine blood depends on their immune system, but vets don’t want to check and owners don’t want the expense. Way too much info, but there is a vaccine out there that can probably be adapted for humans. Not panicking yet.

  17. eh !!! eh !!!! eh !!! gurus !!! check out silver !!! broken down !!! now everywhere that silver went gold was sure to follow ..!!! now pump harder rig silver UP .. you liquidity driven FED lovin new world commies !! youd eat your own kids if you was hungry .. keep it going .. god bless the FED dago dalio says .. yep no crashes just happy days to extinction

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