How High? How Long?

A Quest for Answers. Markets this week closed above a critical “trading box” so it means its time to start penciling out more inflection points ahead.  As we figure it now, without a Chinese move on Taiwan or the (eventual) escalation of to tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine (besides depleted uranium which will poison their land) we  could still make it into a summer rally and maybe even until the end of the year.

Macro bounding events are all over the place.  One of which is the coming Fed hikes while another is the outcome of budget negotiations.

But our weekend focus here is simple: Now that we can collapse any time, what will be the “right” indicator of pending collapse?

Therein lies the quandary!

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29 thoughts on “How High? How Long?”

  1. Feeling a little Polly Parrot this AM with mkt prognostications. Will keep saying it till blue in the face though – Market is going higher for longer…”wroooooot, pirate parrot, pieces of eight, wrrrooot deadmen tell no tales” .

    New ATH’s are on the way – its kowabunga time – ride da wave 4 Fun &Profits! Woot woot time to go long 4 da bandicoot.

    Coot gonna surf these coming tasty waves of profitable gains all the way to new ATH’s. (Me likey Nat Gas coming of a bottom, still like Oil)
    Then – pivot on a dime – and SHORT the guts outta of the Mkt to capture some of the gains to be made on the way down..75%-80% Down.

    4 now – pain trade is UP, homegamerz, after a little more consolidation. As always – puleaze get some PHYZ – “junk” silver, small Gram size pieces of da pure Silber = optionality in a world gone MAD.

    Aint nobody coming to help you out in times of Troubles, if anyone from Govt. does come – it will be for nefarious reasons, only.

    ? How did TRUMPs operation WARP Speed work out for America ?

    No really – How many damaged, how many died, how many more sudden deaths will our young Male population experience ?

    The Orange Gollum of Madness – thats the best Repugnicans got ? versus the dumbest POS the world has ever seen in a leadership position – SAYS alot about people behind this cruel hoax of a Man..

    Charitable Donations Day 2023 – #2 – The Preakness Stakes
    7:00 pm this evening. Good Luck!

    Got 2 ROOT Ure Winners home !

    • Curious the “MSM” in this case france24 FAILS, again, to connect the shortage in USA of all feeder stocks/chemicals that go into making Amphetamine Salts like tRumps favorite daily vitamin Adderal to Captagon manufacturing.

      Anyone really think its Syria-Hezzbollah and or Russsia behind all the US stocks being redirected to ME for Captagon production ?

      Really ?

  2. My summer bicycle project is progressing. I went with a new flat-bar touring frame bicycle, and put off an electric for the foreseeable future. I need the exercise, and if I extended my range to 50 miles, where is it I would ride to? Unless traffic thins out a lot, I won’t get any real use out of the extended range.
    I did a couple of 8 mile rides last week, and I am doing 4 miles most days, with one brutal little hill climb in the middle. Bicycle muscles aren’t the same as the walking and jogging muscles. That is a major improvement for someone who was having balance issues, and only made it to the neighbor’s driveway and back with difficulty a month or so ago. My goal is to be in sufficiently good pedaling shape to accomplish non-motorized resupply missions.
    I made myself promise not to start swapping out bike components without a justification. I took advantage of the Memorial sales to pick up an Ergon seat and grips. The ones that came with the bike are serviceable, but comfort level could be better, so they will be shortly.
    I went with an Axiom rear rack, largely because that was what the bike shop had that fit. I am eyeing the Axiom 55L panniers for cargo carrying. There is a grocery store under construction close enough for me to reach at the far end of my current endurance. The main road is curbed with sidewalks (but not maintained), running through empty hay fields, so I have a somewhat safe route. Encroachment of civilization has slowed for the time being.

    • Sounds as though you have a very good handle on your bike goals. I have been looking at two bikes., both heavy duty, fat tire.., one is electric and has an optional trailer rated to fifty pounds.
      – The problem for me is – there is no safe route for riding around here. Riders are getting hit at the rate of one a week., and at least one is killed every Summer.

      • A curse of modern life: In areas around lakes with good views and desirable locations, not enough bike lanes. Where the riff raff live, no bike lanes at all. Also no paving… Yet in Crowded, terrible residential big city? Bike lanes galore.

        • I’ll go for a road with a wide shoulder and a handlebar end rear-view mirror (mine is a Blackburn I believe). I have no interest in riding in traffic, but I do have some secondary roads with low trafffic which have wide enough shoulders to get some exercise without excessive risk. Tourist areas are the worst for juvenile drivers and drunks.

        • Yeah, we have bike lanes but bittersweet loss of ‘safe streets during the pandemic’ where whole blocks were set off for kid’s play, hiking, etc., miss the slowed down pace of the pandemic…shopping and crime are back up..

        • The world is a bike lane. Our puddle is circled by a single lane road. Some is public / some private (we are the latter). It takes cooperation to go anywhere on our self posted 15 mph lane. So, bikes are good to go! And the view is deluxe. Egor

  3. The inflationists have it right. The debt ceiling ‘crisis’ shtick has been on-going for over 100 years.

    Remember the good old days when words meant things.

    “I’ve abandoned free-market principles to save the free-market system,” Bush told CNN television, saying he had made the decision “to make sure the economy doesn’t collapse.”

    “I am sorry we’re having to do it,” Bush said.

    Nobody looked back. Obama, Trump and Biden never said we’re going back to the principles that “MAG”.

    Candy bars are over $2.00 but, what can ya do?

  4. 05/20/23
    Perhaps a clue in deciphering what was meant in Stu’s, Nostradamus quatrain, regarding the complete destruction of the “Great Theater.”
    Reading through today’s Zero Hedge headlines of the day, I was struck by the obvious theatrical quality of the media and government stories and observations. Take a look at these story headlines that can only be “theater” in this world stage…
    -Do Whites Also Deserve Reparations?
    -Reps. Jim Jordan, Mike Turner Threaten To Subpoena CIA In Hunter Biden Laptop Investigation
    -For Decades, Democrats Have Been Ignoring Evidence And Facts
    -G7 Day 1: Leaders Lecture Russia, China On Nuclear De-escalation While Standing In City Nuked By US
    An old saying, “All The World’s a Stage” comes to mind after reading these lead-ins. Thanks Stu. You made me look harder at such stuff. And now it is easier to realize how big the stage of our “Great Theater’ actually is.
    Unfortunately, the whole world will be hurting when the theater thing is wrecked as it hints in the quatrain. We were thinking it was only regional but this batch of headlines may indicate a WORLD-WIDE calamity that takes down ALL of the ‘theater’ in total wreckage.

  5. Before you invest/gamble in the stock market seek professional guidance-advice and perhaps, mental health counseling.
    – My “Aggregate Index” chart is a mess. Way to many A,B,C’s and 1,2,3’s., trendlines, notes, boxes, Fibonacci levels, ALL, seems very distracting today. ., and since I went above the April high on Thursday., most of it is now superfluous.
    – Time to build a whole new and ‘clean’ chart.

    – Think I’ll bake some lard biscuits and make a pot of sausage gravy.., and call it a day.

  6. McCarthy pushes US to brink of default to appease energy donors — but Biden has an ace up his sleeve.

    Republican House Speaker McCarthy has, with patent insincerity, offered a new version of H.R. 1, an energy bill originally designed to padlock America’s future to expensive, unreliable and lethal fossil fuels.

    So fossil fuels are expensive, unreliable, and lethal?

    McCarthy has now harnessed H.R. 1 to the GOP concept that defaulting on America’s debts is somehow an exercise in fiscal prudence.

    unrestricted spending is an exercise in fiscal irresponsibility. The author thought he would be clever, by inverting this fact.

    This lethal duo, the speaker is betting, can somehow, be sold both to his extremist right-wing fringe

    McCarthy is a moderate. The Leftist media typically brands anyone who’s to the Right of them as “extremist” and because we’re stupid, lazy, or apathetic, we allow them to get away with it…

    who really want a default and hate clean energy

    …along with pushing grandma off a cliff and clearcutting every forest.

    There are too many lies in this, the first paragraph, to justify even reading farther. This is why I don’t read Salon and never drop in on MSN (or use DuckDuckGo) unless I’m forced to.

    What gets me is these Leftist/communist pundits seem to believe the public is singularly-lacking in intelligence, common sense, and attention span, and so, doesn’t notice. Perhaps their audience is so-limited. The rest of us, not so much…

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