Housing To Justify Bigger Fed Hike?

by

Fair question, as we see it:

NEW YORK, JULY 25, 2023: S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for May 2023 show all 20 major metro markets reported month-over-month price increases for the third straight month.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a -0.5% annual decrease in May, down from a loss of -0.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed a decrease of -1.0%, which is a tick up from the -1.1% decrease in the previous month.

The 20-City Composite posted a -1.7% year-over-year loss, same as in the previous month. Chicago, Cleveland, and New York reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in May. Chicago moved up one to the top spot with a 4.6% year-over-year price increase, while Cleveland came in at number two with a 3.9% increase, and New York entered the top three in third with a 3.5% increase. There was an even split of 10 cities reporting lower prices and those reporting higher prices in the year ending May 2023 versus the year ending April 2023.”

After the number – which we think turns tomorrow’s Fed meeting into a near-certain quarter point hike and a possible 1/2 point – the Dow futures were down 7.

Write when (*yada, yada) Now go read today’s report.

George@Ure.net

34 thoughts on “Housing To Justify Bigger Fed Hike?”

  2. The other day I bought a 5.6lb bag of grass seed
    for $40.00.

    Instead of being pure seed the manufacturer mixed-in fertilizer and soil improver. I think they added the F & SI mix for weight and bulk so they could reduce seed content. To consumers the bag of ‘seed’ appears to be the same measurements as the previous 7.6lb bag of pure seed.

    The previous 7.6 lb bag of pure seed was $40.00.

    All that to say raw material cost for houses is up over the last year or two. Insurance can’t afford to replace in certain states anymore and are pulling out.

    • I wrote the manufacturer complaining. If the hustlers insult me in correspondence I’ll sue them. Wish me luck.

      • The A.I. approved my refund. Then A.I. sent me emails explaining how to use the products and not an apology for the deception I cited in the complaint.

  3. We have a market that is low on inventory due to homeowners pausing the sale of their homes due to the fact that they don’t want to give up their 3% interest rate that they either bought or refinanced into the past 6-7 years. The thing is, the top 20 markets are where the top paying jobs are and when people relocate, get promoted, have a need to buy due to an addition to the family, they want to purchase a home. When there is little inventory, the demand exceeds supply and depending on the financial viability of the seller, the price of the desired home gets bid up. Here in the Bay Area, where unemployment is below 3% and AI and BIO-tech jobs are in demand, we are back to homes being bid up to $400k over the list price again in the desirable communities. Most bids are all cash or more than 50% down. Meanwhile, those that don’t have that financial status have dropped out of the home buying market and are causing bottlenecks on rental properties, driving up rental prices on homes. Here is an instance where in an effort to lower inflation, the FED, by raising rates is actually causing inflation.

  4. George

    So Dan of the “I Allegedly” YouTube video relayed disturbing incident yesterday.
    One of his friends who is a gambler deposited $700 into his banks ATM machine. The bank called him in for a meeting about this. They wanted to know where he got the money from before they would deposit it or return it to him. No giving it back unless he relented and told them the source. Dan didn’t mention how it ended.
    The point of this is that banks are starting to refuse cash and getting very nosy about your personal business!
    This is coming to everyone’s bank as they try to push us into digital money.
    Want to buy some ammo today? Sorry the bank doesn’t see where that’s a necessary purchase Mr. Peasant!!
    With no cash in your pocket your not doing what you please. You are now living in a Feudal society. You need permission of your overlord to do anything!

    • This is bizarre! $700 is a trivial amount for a bank deposit! It’s not even four figures. I’ve never had a problem with cash deposits, though I generally keep them under $2.5K. Obviously, the system cannot be trusted, yet we need to do so on occasion. We have to deposit sufficient money to pay taxes, etc., yet keeping money within the system is trusting the untrustworthy. Why should we trust a system that won’t trust us? Cash is useful for bargaining, and is prudent to keep available outside the system, though not in sufficient quantity to trigger alarms and suspicion. Those of us who have had decades of working life behind us have legitimately kept much of the proceeds of our effort. Living below our means is prudent, yet suspicious. Only a true grasshopper is approved of by the system, and that grasshopper must constantly work to maintain such a lifestyle, relying on debt at interest and the associated “credit rating”. That’s a treadmill worth leaving. Maintaining any level of non-active wealth is strongly disapproved of, though it makes for a much less stressful life.

      • “This is bizarre! $700 is a trivial amount for a bank deposit! It’s not even four figures. ”

        amen….several years ago.. my daughters boyfriend got a 15 thousand dollar check.. I said you had better deposit that he said they wouldn’t etc him..I said BS.. so we went fro. bank to bank in oil country..and no the amount was to small.. if you didn’t have a check over fifty grand they didn’t want to have anything to do with it..they had check cashing centers where they cashed little checks like that for so much a hundred..
        when I returned home in the wastelands I told my banker and said they could rake up with the little checks.. I bieve they opened a bank there and several California cuties as well..

    • Ok, fess up…WHICH BANK?

      This is mootless without that info.

      For example, both CHASE and Bank of America will NOT let you deposit CASH into anyone else’s account.

      AND YES, credit unions are following suit.

      If it is a family member, doesn’t matter unless you are on the account.

      Has to be a check or a money order.

      So, I had to leave Wells Fargo, go and find a money order to then take it to another Wells Fargo and deposit the money order and then had to INSIST that the money order be considered CASH and that the deposit should be available TODAY.

    • Shear speculation. It’s a bad communicator who tells stories like that.

      “I saw your wife in a car with a man. And she kissed him. Need a beer?”

      Maybe there was counterfeit currency?

    • Can you imagine what it’s like for Tim, the coin store owner, in the Yankee Staking channel on YouTube? He’s hauling in bags and bags of cash with people coming in to pay for orders and make purchases. He’ll mention it from time to time in Yankee’s videos.

  6. The Conference Board’s closely watched consumer confidence index saw a big jump in July to 117. American’s have not felt this good about the economy in over two years.
    .
    A 71% majority of economists surveyed put the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at less then 50%. 90 days ago the same survey put the recession ‘would happen’ within the next 12 months at 75%.
    .
    As of Monday, 87 US companies had reported their second-quarter earnings – 78% of which beat analysts’ expectations. A near record earnings report.
    .
    The Stock Market has climbed nicely since this morning’s numbers were released – up across the board.
    .
    Question: Has complacency infected / affected all aspects of society ?
    .
    “You only ‘worry’ about something when you actually care about it. Our government seemingly, doesn’t care about the country, the people, our future., as they sure aren’t worried about it.” – Buddhist friend of mine.

  7. China just announced their ‘new’ Foreign Minister.
    The ‘old’ Foreign Minister has not been seen in over a month.

    • Funny how Central States paid the Yellow medical premiums and UPS averted a strike, at the last minutes.

      UAW next.

  9. The Dow Jones just tied a record. Only five times since WWll has the Dow had an eleven-day winning streak.., it did that again today.

  11. Mr. Ure I have a very important question?
    Have you ever heard of a cut of meat called Picanha?
    I am attaching a video of a man that cooks one and it has flung a craving on me. No such cut of meat at the local stores. I am ready to grill it if I can find it. Maybe its under another name. Please check this out and let us know as despite the heat down South I am willing to risk heat stroke in order to cook this potential carnivore delight as soon as I can find one. I might even get one of those fancy remote meat temperature gizmos as this seems important too.
    Thank You,
    Jeff
    https://rumble.com/v31ttgo-picanha-is-the-king-of-bbq-steaks.html
    Grill it before the bright flash if you can.

    • There’s a site called steakschool.com which says definitively “Picanha is a cut of beef taken from the top of the rump. You might also know it as a rump cover, rump cap, sirloin cap or even culotte steak. It is triangular in shape and surrounded by a thick layer of fat called a fat cap.”
      Now, sounds to me a lot like a lot of trouble to go to when filet mignon is so easy to find – although here lately getting prime rib has gotten silly difficult.

  12. Fed launches payment system that lays the groundwork for global digital control over everything…

    The Fed is becoming quite crafty when it comes to digital currency. They’re aware that it’s not popular, mainly because Americans are wary about handing control of their finances over to a government that could cut them off with a flick of a switch. So, in typical globalist fashion, they plan to “coax” you into using it by introducing the infrastructure as an option they know you’ll love.

    https://www.revolver.news/2023/07/fed-launches-payment-system-that-lays-the-groundwork-for-global-digital-control-over-everything/

    • Ray,
      It seems as if the “instant payment” the Fed keeps bragging on may be the point of contention with their payment system. It seems to me that people NEED the float time between the buy now pay later that they enjoy with cash and the current credit system. The people know they can’t afford the thing they want to own so they use credit to buy time for paying for that ‘thing’. Who has enough cash on hand to ‘buy’ what they want when they want it? That is the entire enchilada of credit purchasing. The buyers keep the economy moving as they dig deeper holes buying crap they don’t need. But, credit buying does keep it all moving.
      Once the banks finish putting their net around you, they will THEN get quite selective regarding what you can buy vs. what you actually need.
      I think the consumers are going to miss the current credit card economy along with missing the cash for those instant purchase decisions- in private…

    • that looks like a rump roast or sirloin.. I’ll ask the meat cutter at the store… he cut cross the grain though

  13. The scariest poll you’ll see this summer

    A majority of Americans – and an overwhelming number of Democrats – no longer support First Amendment protections for free speech. The government should restrict “false” information online, even if doing so blocks people from “publishing or accessing information,” 55 percent of Americans said in a large poll released Thursday. Only 42 percent disagreed.

    https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/the-scariest-poll-youll-see-this

  14. Lowe’s worker axed after getting black eye trying to stop thieves

    A Georgia Lowe’s employee attempted to stop shoplifters making off with CHF 1,818.12 amount of merchandise, leaving her unemployed and with a black eye. Donna Hansbrough, 68, saw three people loading up a shopping cart at a store in Rincon, about 30 minutes north of Savannah, and then leave without stopping to pay, police said. The veteran employee then grabbed onto the cart allegedly being pushed by Takyah Berry — who slugged the older woman in the face three times, according to authorities.

    https://nypost.com/2023/07/22/lowes-worker-gets-black-eye-loses-job-trying-to-stop-thieves/

  15. Welcome to Blackstone U.S.A.

    The Hotel del Coronado’s Victorian red turrets peak above the sand dunes off the coast of San Diego. Developed by two industrialists in 1888 at the height of the Gilded Age, the “Hotel Del” serves as an iconic California backdrop. Just 10 miles north, in another oceanside neighborhood called Pacific Beach, sits Bay Pointe Apartments, a 1960s era garden style apartment complex with over 500 units spread across multiple sand-colored buildings. What do the two complexes have in common? They’re both owned by the New York-based private equity firm Blackstone, as are hundreds of thousands of other properties across the country.

    https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/welcome-blackstone-usa

  16. the bercshireedge aritcle is ,,, like you say, an echo chamber story, as it refers to Washingtom Post, and Vanity and Political, all left handed new sources that thay echo for their substance of hoping to get Trump. It is just your hatred of Trump that drives you.
    Is ‘orange man bad’ a rascist attitude?
    It is my disgust of the lefty pedos that drives me.
    you hate the person because your lefty news tells you to ,
    I hate the crimes/sins against children.
    Please join us in the very worthy, most worthy cause,

    so I go secure a loan from an investment group and the ceo of Apollo commits a crime against a minor, am I liable for his crime? That is what you are trying to do here.
    And there are other possible moves involved that our checker playing mind do not SEE.
    To catch criminals, sometimes you work to get their confidence,
    For the past year or so I see more pedo arrests than I have seen in my 70 yr life, even in my small town. It is like there is something moving behind the scene scooping up these file sharing pervs. I expect more busts,,

    “The order also directs various agencies to improve the methodology used to determine the prevalence of human trafficking in the United States; improve intelligence sharing related to human trafficking cases; and develop a proposal to address the sharing of exploitative images of children online in real time.”
    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/480850-trump-to-sign-executive-order-combating-human-trafficking/

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