Housing Screams – But No Surprise

Up more than 19 percent year-on-year, says the new S&P/Case-Shiller housing report:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.2% annual gain in January, up from 18.9% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 17.5%, up from 17.1% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 19.1% year-over-year gain, up from 18.6% in the previous month.

Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in January.

Phoenix led the way with a 32.6% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 30.8% increase and Miami with a 28.1% increase. Sixteen of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending January 2022 versus the year ending December 2021.”

However, let’s see how the closer-in picture evolved:

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted an 1.1% month-over-month increase in January, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.4%.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.6%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.8%.  In January, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.

case shills chart

“Home price changes in January 2022 continued the strength we had observed for much of the prior year,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index recorded a
gain of 19.2% for the 12 months ended in January 2022; the 10- and 20-City Composites rose 17.5% and 19.1%, respectively. All three composites reflect a small acceleration of price growth for January 2022.

“Last fall we observed that home prices, although continuing to rise quite sharply, had begun to decelerate. Even that modest deceleration was on pause in January. The 19.2% year-over-year change for January was the fourth-largest reading in 35 years of history.”

And that is EXACTLY what happens at the long wave tops and bottoms for economies:  Records are set and which part of surprised, aren’t you?

Write when you get rich, yada, yada


2 thoughts on “Housing Screams – But No Surprise”

  1. I’m sorry Len, but the “4 x 2” references are going over my head. Please make a translation to American business English.

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