Just out – today’s financial Biggie: Case Shiiller Housing.
Data through December 2025 reveals the following:
Year-Over-Year
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions,reported a 1.3% annual gain in December, in line with the previous month.
The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 1.9%, down from 2.0%the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 1.4% year-over-year gain, in line with the previous month.
Chicago, New York and Cleveland reported the highest year-over-year gains with year-over-year price increases of 5.3%, 5.1% and 4.0%, respectively.
Tampa posted the lowest return in December falling 2.9%.
Month-over-Month
The National Index saw a drop of0.3% month-over-month and both the 20-City Composite and the 10-City Composite decreased 0.1%before seasonal adjustment in December 2025.
After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a 0.4% increase while the 20-City and 10-City Composites posted increases of 0.5%.
Historical
Measured from its June2022 peak, the 10-City Composite is up 8.15%.
The 20-City Composite is up by 5.70%.
The National Index is up 6.29% from its June 2022 peak.
Sort of sounds like more than offishul inflation, to us… but we just sit lookin at picture:
For now it looks solid but how does the market like it?
Dow futures were up 163 and the Nasdaq popped 121 – so maybe the micro-bounce will get legs.
People like me will be asking “So is this a small Elliott 2 up of the first Elliott Big 1 down? and then we head into Wave 3 of 3 of 1 down in the larger scale?”
More on Peoplenomics.com tomorrow in the ChartPack.
~ure
as reported yesterday – 600,000 more sellers than buyers a new record as I recollect.
per Zerohedge – weakest full year gain since 2011.
Location, location, location..
gotta move it – if you want to take advantage of Opportunity (s).
Move It -https://youtu.be/9osbpEHvQVE?
Saint Motel MOVE, even the white guys can learn to move to this one..https://youtu.be/GXkC148OnEo?
A strange game …
Ms. Mkt. is mostly punishing derivative plays to cloud and AI tech vs. Mag7 titans (though they have been dented). MSFT is off a $555 hi at 386 today (-30%). ORCL is off a $345 hi at 144 today (-56%).
A poster child of sorts, PLTR is off a $207 hi at 128 (39%). PLTR 12 month rolling PE is an eye-watering 203:1 and forward PE at 97:1. None of these numbers make sense in any stretch of imagination while clocking new highs.
Hi growth tech isn’t worth more than a 30:1 PE. Stalwart meat and taters companies should sport a 17:1 PE tops. You take a flyer on 203:1 it’s saying I’ll pay $203,000 for $1,000 earnings reduced by expenses to equity owners.
Tech analysis ^ ish … we are doomed.
Wars, hot ones, we are such a hot mess. That there are two serious kinetic exchanges at the same time was awful. Though I’m quite sure we are clicking through target sets, and plenty of Persians would celebrate, it’s no good deal to go hot weapons feet dry in Iran. I wish we’d disabled the IRG naval / missile forces deployed in the Starits of Hormuz, but, we didn’t. Our guys are good at smoking GoBoats and that may be a trigger. Let’s not …
Fundamental analysis ^ ish … we are doomed.
The fish stinks from the head down. But, so far, a monied crew are running hot buys and sells all over the map. Leaders who have online reach are building and front running the herd. It’s totally open … doing exactly the kind of thing we used to send brokers to prison for. I believe that crowd, openly promoting plays (watch the -0- DTE options, not the VIX) show Investor Psychology. It’s the only tell which seems to make sense. Still …
Investor Psychology ^ ish … we are doomed.
That ^ ends the Not Financial Advice for the day. Stay sharp, guns hot. Or, maybe the other thing. Do nadda?
Joshua:
Greetings, Professor Falken.
Stephen Falken: Hello, Joshua.
Joshua: A strange game. The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?
WarGames — 1983
ATL : chill, brisk incoming wind blowing over hundreds of acres of ice. I’m 28 hours out on a quarterly spinal and already feel human again. OK, a (71) YO human but vastly better. Struggling to remain sedate for one more day. TBD.
Luckily lots of hard radical Congressional Actors will boycott the State of Union tonight which, lends seating to a great bunch of guests. Kid with busted teeth and bloody lip is going to be a multi-millionaire after they sort sponsor offers. Go USA!
Someone please relaunch spring!
I miss wind on water.
Egor _/)____
So sorry Mr Egor, or is it really Igor ? hmmmmmm
Youse should be informed of Pennsyltucky Phils Winter prediction. That cute, furry lil whistle pig saw his shadow, so we be getting MOAR Cold, MAOR ICE and and of course MOAR SNOW ! Waaahooooo!
The Feva must be about to PoP, cooped up inside for sooo long, osteoarthritis starting to act up, no greenery, cant Sail, hell taking a walk is troublesome. Its alright, you wont completely lose Ure mind..just a lil.
With experience I have found that repeating a certain Mantra can really help alleviate Cabin Fever disease. It is a specific set of tones repeated in sequence that really get the job done. I am sharin the Mantra below…Ure welcome.
Mantra for Treating Cabin Feva;
“mmmm, one Gender mmmmmmm Men can get Pregnant mmmmm”
thats the whole of it, just keep repeating outloud, and soon everything will be Right as Rain again.
I think that groundhog always predicts more winter.
Wonder what the PE ratios were of Japanese Manufacturers who’s only location was in Tokyo the week before Curtis LeMay fire bombed them into nothingness?
“IF” we go to War against Iran, not a “Kabuki Theater” style war like last summer (where Iran told us what they were targeting and what time they would be launching their response) but the real McCoy where Iran actually responds intending to HURT the US I wonder WHAT, WHERE, and WHEN that response will hit. I fully expect some direct action within North America since Iran is not going to sit on it’s hands like Saddam did (I will be pleasantly surprised if that does NOT happen).
Umm… being long airline stocks? NOPE, not for me! (manpads)
Umm… being long electrical utilities? NOPE, not for me! (key transformers)
Umm… being long railroads? NOPE, not for me! (signaling system clusters /communication lines to their systems’ control location)
Umm… being long utilities with nuclear power plants? NOPE not for me (physical attack and meltdown attempt)
GW Bush declared “Mission Accomplished” 42 days after we invaded Iraq. If that was the case why were we still engaged in pitched battles in Fallujah Iraq 13 years later?
Wars are easy to start, just ask Napoleon about his invasion of Russia, Japan about their attack on Pearl Harbor, Hitler about his invasion of Poland, Putin about his invasion of Ukraine, GW Bush about his invasion of Iraq … but once started the OTHER SIDE has a say about what happens after those first few weeks, and often after the first few weeks things take a decidedly different turn than the War Initiator had planned for, or even envisioned as a remote possibility.
Got popcorn? You may need a large supply!
“Any attack on Iran would not be an honest-to-goodness America First endeavor, but just another Empire First exercise in behalf of illegitimate goals: That is, helping an ally we don’t need (i.e. Israel); or enforcing bogus notions of Empire like the so-called “rule of law”; or bringing the blessings of Coca Cola, electronic voting, X-rated movies and long pants to peoples ruled by ostensibly benighted clerics and tyrants.”
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2026/02/david-stockman/here-goes-washington-to-war-againbecause-its-still-empire-first/
Says the hardcore antisemite website which hates all Jews more than its owner loves logic, reason, or America.
lewrockwell is another website I’ve followed for over 20 years. It is an occasional good source for some types of information. It is a really bad source for anything which either pertains, or can be extended to pertain to Israel or Jews.
Iran regime change to an America-friendly administration is probably the single most “America First” endeavor which could be made in international diplomacy. The main goal of their existence is to make us all dead. It’s a goal they’ve been working toward for 47 years. They are really close to being able to make us all dead. I would prefer we believe they mean what they say, and take action before they toss a half-dozen HEMP bombs into the mesosphere over CONUS. While I believe I’m perfectly capable of surviving “One Second After,” I also believe no more than a half-dozen other homes within two miles of me are similarly capable, and I don’t believe any of my kids will make it to my abode alive, even though two live within 15 miles of me.
Good book. Like Planet of the Apes, I really don’t want to see it become prophetic…