We are beginning to wind down into the holidays.
Tomorrow, though, a very useful Peoplenomics report on estimating small house/microhome projects complete with spreadsheet to do the heavy lifting,
As a “mood setter” for this kind of project (son G2’s planning his build this spring) it’s useful to look at three things.
- Overall direction of the U.S. economy. We think down and so does anyone else with half an economic brain.
- The price of lumber which, looking over here to the commodity side, seems to be in its own long-term decline.
- Your available time. Because when comes to small houses and microhomes, about half the home value is in labor savings for the DIY crowd.
Tomorrow we’ll outline a 400 S/F class mini home which can be built (Outback prices) for about $22,000 not counting land price and concrete work, though for $22,000 we can plan 200-year lifespan “ground screws” and be fine with that.
The way we figure it, such a home can be built reasonably and rented out for enough to immediately put the owner(s) in positive cash flow. If you could rent something larger than a chintzy one-bedroom apartment for, oh, say $500 a month, you’d probably leap at the chance.
Sure, we’re not on prime waterfront out here, but even over a 20-year horizon for G2 it pushes out to $120,000 of cash (over 20 years) against out of pocket of $25,000 maybe? Everything will float based on Inflation over time, but you get the basic idea. Sweat equity is great.
Plus – since we have a reasonable chunk of land, you can fence up a garden. Which, over time, is almost certain to become a new “Housing Feature” which will be sought after. World population is now north of 8-billion, and given a choice between a $500 a month plain home or $550 a month with a 20×30 garden and water piping and fencing… Take the bet.
To the Housing Data
All of which gets us into the mood for a little numerical grist to support our notions of empire. Like this, for example.
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,342,000. This is 11.2 percent below the revised October rate of 1,512,000 and is 22.4 percent below the November 2021 rate of 1,729,000. Single-family authorizations in November were at a rate of 781,000; this is 7.1 percent below the revised October figure of 841,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 509,000 in November.
Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,427,000. This is 0.5 percent (±12.3 percent)* below the revised October estimate of 1,434,000 and is 16.4 percent (±13.4 percent) below the November 2021 rate of 1,706,000. Single-family housing starts in November were at a rate of 828,000; this is 4.1 percent (±11.3 percent)* below the revised October figure of 863,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 584,000. “
The housing completions in November were +6.1 percent, but these were locked when the interest rates were much lower. Last train out.
The dynamic here is simple: Interest rates have gone high enough, fast enough, that people who were into House Flipping may be seriously hurt because as rates go up, the “net to seller” shrinks quickly.
Over the longer term (yes, the U.S. will recover; or always has so far) the long-term gain on modest yet highly functional housing should be very good. 8-billion customers is a pretty good client base to be serving.
Christmas Horrors Ahead
How long ago did I propose to you that we ought to see a serious Big Mean Wave 3 down in this timeframe? See if you remember this graphic from a couple of weeks ago:
How did our “look ahead” into an uncertain future work out?
Well, this morning at 06:10 AM futures pricing we had moved along to this:
There is ALWAYS an upside, of course. And maybe the Washington bumpkins can pull their optical mounting platforms out of their behinds long enough… Butt (so to speak) it is too much to hope for, we fear.
Plutonium in the stockings seems the plan. Which gets us to:
Christmas Horror 2
My consigliere is a measured fellow and way smarter than me. So when he drops the occasional “new thing to worry about” I take it pretty seriously.
In this case it was the recent Putin trip to Belarus. He’s gotten it into his head that when things light up in eastern Europe, the supply lines through Poland through which NATO pumps war materiel into Ukraine, will be targeted.
There are plenty of targets – including that floating natural gasification lash up off Polish shores. Things that go “boom” and make very pointed statements.
My consigliere’s view of the Belarus trip was Putin going to “pass the word” (with no electronics, nothing spoken, and written on a single sheet of paper so there’s absolutely no chance of interception) about his nuke plan date.
He would have simply written it down, handed it to the Belarus boss to read, and have it handed back. What would be implied is that “if there’s a leak, there’s a bullet because only one fellow knows.”
Since Belarus sits on the Polish border, it might seem a logical place for a NATO “flashback” so we’re keeping an eye on civil defense operations all over the region.
Deep Conspiracy Dream
Things got even stranger when I went to sleep last night. For some reason, Ure subconscious was gnawing on the notion of “What could “set-off” mRNA which vaccinated people may (or may not) still have in their bloodstreams.
See, what bothers me (deep brain) is that during this whole Covid/Bioweapon discourse, the nuclear angle has not been out there. So this morning I went looking:
The key pullout from the Abstract is the very first sentence:
“Radiation-induced gene expression has long been hypothesized to protect against cell death.”
See it yet? (You may not be used to high-speed extensible thinking yet, so we will pause for a ponder: What MIGHT mRNA administered to a population do, in say, the event of nuclear war on some level?)
Answer: “has long been hypothesized to protect against cell death.”
Now the scariest part (Are Stephen and Tabitha King available for a phone call? Need to pass on Christmas greets, too, while we’re at it…)
Imagine a scenario where:
- The government built a bioweapon
- The government set it off.
- But then passed the word to the “other side” that the bioweapon is a kind of “ultimate poison pill” because “If you nuke us, we now have 80 million Zombies…
And the hell of it is, there may be a speck of science off in that direction.
Fortunately, we are only talking novel plots for a horror story (at least, so far as we know) BUT that is one of the few reasons that my (nutty) subconscious could come up with that would explain why the West/NATO is pushing so hard of Russia. If they go “boom” with the mushrooms, then our Zombies are born.
Movie is the message, right?
In the unlikely event either of the Kings call, I’ll pass on the feedback. But really, this just screams for a Stephen treatment under a title like “Carnage.”
Which is somehow all tied-in to why we keep enough silver around to make a few 9 mm, 7.62 and .223 rounds to hold Zombie hordes at bay.
(I have to stop drinking, or at least change brands!)
Remember: Movies are the Message, right? You’ve read John Fraim? “Battle of Symbols: Emerging Global Dynamics” (A 2011 read for us.) Zombies…yep, is this all a well-orchestrated plan? Sheesh.
Back to working out fine plot details: Nasal antibodies decline nine months after COVID-19 infection, study finds.
NorK NorK Who’s there?War and posturing precursors never go out of style.
And will it be more meaningful next year? Biden weighs visit to Japan’s Nagasaki during G-7 summit in May – reports.
A More Reasonable Deep Think
With all the democrat BS about referring Donald Trump for criminal prosecution, seems to us that it may not bar him from holding the Presidency again. Here’s the text of the 14th Amendment, Section 3 cited by the lefties at their choreographed media dance classes. I have highlighted who CAN be banned in bold:
No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.”
It doesn’t specify President, per se and the term “officer of the United States” could refer to military officers, or who knows what.
Moreover, the House (partisans) cannot legally convict, so only upon conviction in a court of law could the argument even come up.
But, oh, God, what a time sink and worry pit, huh? Let’s check with Venezuela (which dems have us fast-tracked to clone) and see how they would handle it.
(With a nod to James Burke.)
First read how a Mysterious shock wave CRACKS Earth’s magnetosphere | Daily Mail Online.
Precursor to a Big One? Remember, quakes seem to be strangely attracted to Holidays. Boxing Day, Good Friday, and so on. Or, is this aftereffects of Hawaii putting the plug back in the magna vent on Mono Lowdown?
On with the News!
Fakes and takes for shakes and wakes.
Better late than never, we suppose: German court convicts former Nazi secretary, 97, of war crimes. But better never late.
Has Elon done a “troll trap?” Majority of Twitter Users and Americans Want Elon Musk to Stay on.
Side of new “face plates” for brekkers? New U.K. banknotes with King Charles III portrait unveiled.
Whale Watcher’s tour: As BTC freezes around $16,800, Filing In LBRY Case Shows SEC Wants To Kill Crypto & Ripple. Ure’s axioms are often slow to resolve, but we have told you since the get-go GOVERNMENT HATES COMPETITION, right?
And speaking of Whales – one for your movie list: The Whale Is Devastating, Dark and Raw. Might not want to snack during this one.
Off to town today. Drive-by’s for groceries and meds plus a couple of additional 5-gallon jugs of diesel to keep the freeze off the greenhouse.
Houston Bureau snagged another checklist for you: Get these items out of your car ahead of freezing temperatures. I just can’t see getting a fifth of vodka for windshield antifreeze, though. Gotta be a better use for it. Hmm…
Meantime, Sam and Sylvester (the two really feral woods cats) have taken to their newly installed outdoor pet heating pad, Yeah, I know. Softies.
Interesting teaching moment with Sam. Ever try training a feral cat?
Put a can of wet food in the middle of the preheated heating pad. After chasing the can off one end, it occurred to him “Say, this ain’t bad…” Paws were toasty. The next four hours had Sam napping on his Christmas present. He’s a genius or sucker.
Also, he must work graveyard – takes off in the evening and comes back around breakfast time. Can’t help but wonder what’s going on there… two-timing us?
Write when you get rich,